北京核与辐射恐怖事件风险分析

采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998—2006年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合北京市的实际情况进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将北京市各类场所划分为4类敏感区并与5类涉核恐怖事件结合起来,得到北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险构成图。通过风险分析,笔者认为北京市发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为核研究机构,最容易发生的核与辐射恐怖事件类型为涉及放射源的恐怖事件,结合分析结果对从阻止、探测、响应3个层次上提出了奥运核安保工作的反核恐工作建议。     

RESEARCH: Triage Law Enforcement: Societal Impacts on National Forests in the West

/ Uses of outdoor natural areas, like National Forests in the United States, have been undergoing change. Some changes, including criminal activities and domestic terrorism, may have quite important impacts to outdoor enthusiasts and managers. Activities include some relatively traditional management challenges, like arson and thefts, and newer challenges, such as domestic violence and murder. To better understand the prevalence and impacts of these activities, selected managers in the western United States were interviewed in summer and fall 1998. Results indicate criminal activities and domestic terrorism are found in both urban-interface and rural sites. The most prevalent challenges were arson, criminal damage, domestic violence, dumping of household trash and landscape materials, marijuana cultivation, satanic cult activity, and thefts. Not as prevalent but found in almost all study sites were body dumping, extremist group activity, gang activity, murders, and suicides. Managers felt that most outdoor recreationists were unaffected by the activities. Most managers noted the increasing prevalence and the costs to management in time, personnel, and in other ways. They noted that their job had ceased being one of natural resources law enforcement and became one of "city" law enforcement. The findings of the study raise serious issues that require additional research.     

危险品运输网络优化设计研究综述

为分析当今反恐新形势下的危险品运输网络优化设计问题的研究现状,系统总结国内外关于一般场景和恐怖袭击威胁2种情况下危险品运输网络优化设计研究的主要模型和方法,梳理两者现有的研究内容,并讨论其共性及恐怖袭击威胁情景下的研究的新特点。结果发现:目前关于解决危险品运输网络优化设计问题模型的鲁棒性研究较为缺乏,尤其是模型在更为复杂和不确定性更强的恐怖袭击情景中适用性不强;危险品运输的鲁棒优化模型即使在突发事件条件下,也可以使决策者能够作出相对满意的决策;鲁棒性危险品运输网络能够规避风险扰动,可用来防止在恐怖袭击中因危险品车辆爆炸等造成更大的危害。     

金属材料对放射性核素的屏蔽性能研究

目的为应对在核反恐以及核应急中屏蔽体对放射性核素的监测和识别干扰,对金属材料屏蔽体的放射性核素屏蔽性能进行研究。方法选用三种不同壁厚、材质的金属作为屏蔽体,探测它们对同一放射源的屏蔽作用。结果发现研究中的几种金属材料屏蔽体对200 ke V以下的gamma射线均具有较强的屏蔽作用,尤其对于低强度射线,经屏蔽体后几乎无法检测到。同一材质金属,其屏蔽性能与壁厚成正比,但是4 mm铝筒的屏蔽效果比3 mm钢筒的屏蔽效果有时候还差。结论在实际场景放射性核素探测识别中,应充分考虑到不同材质和不同壁厚的屏蔽体对射线的吸收影响,从而快速检测和识别放射性核素。这对核反恐和核应急过程中的监测有特别的现实意义。     

The normalisation of terror: the response of Israel's stock market to long periods of terrorism

Man‐made disasters such as acts of terrorism may affect a society's resiliency and sensitivity to prolonged physical and psychological stress. The Israeli Tel Aviv stock market TA‐100 Index was used as an indicator of reactivity to suicide terror bombings. After accounting for factors such as world market changes and attack severity and intensity, the analysis reveals that although Israel's financial base remained sensitive to each act of terror across the entire period of the Second Intifada (2000–06), sustained psychological resilience was indicated with no apparent overall market shift. In other words, we saw a ‘normalisation of terror’ following an extended period of continued suicide bombings. The results suggest that investors responded to less transitory global market forces, indicating sustained resilience and long‐term market confidence. Future studies directly measuring investor expectations and reactions to man‐made disasters, such as terrorism, are warranted.     

Immediate and long-term assistance following the bombing of the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania

On 7 August 1998 truck bombs destroyed the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.(1) The response in both countries was characterised by an absence of incident command, limited pre-hospital care, a disorganised hospital response and a lack of transportation for those injured. In the next five years USD 50 million was provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to alleviate the resulting suffering, support reconstruction and strengthen disaster preparedness capacity in the two countries. These two programmes have enhanced awareness of disaster management issues, improved training capacity, built response structures and provided material resources. Their design and implementation provide lessons for future disasters in developing countries. The assistance programmes evolved very differently. In Kenya the programme largely excluded the public sector and the potential for government coordination, while the Tanzanian programme concentrated heavily on central government and regional hospital structures-largely omitting the non-governmental or civil society sector. Excluding key stakeholders raises concerns about programme sustainability and the ability to respond effectively to future emergencies.     

Operationalizing risk perception and preparedness behavior research for a multi-hazard context

Increasingly, citizens are being asked to take a more active role in disaster risk reduction (DRR), as decentralization of hazard governance has shifted greater responsibility for hazard preparedness actions onto individuals. Simultaneously, the taxonomy of hazards considered for DRR has expanded to include medical and social crises alongside natural hazards. Risk perception research emerged to support decision-makers with understanding how people characterize and evaluate different hazards to anticipate behavioral response and guide risk communication. Since its inception, the risk perception concept has been incorporated into many behavioral theories, which have been applied to examine preparedness for numerous hazard types. Behavioral theories have had moderate success in predicting or explaining preparedness behaviors; however, they are typically applied to a single hazard type and there is a gap in understanding which theories (if any) are suited for examining multiple hazard types simultaneously. This paper first reviews meta-analyses of behavioral theories to better understand performance. Universal lessons learnt are summarized for survey design. Second, theoretically based preparedness studies for floods, earthquakes, epidemics, and terrorism are reviewed to assess the conceptual requirements for a ‘multi-hazard’ preparedness approach. The development of an online preparedness self-assessment and learning platform is discussed.     

Pathways for the oxidation of sarin in urban atmospheres

The nerve agent sarin has recently been deployed by terrorists in a major city. The molecule is volatile and made its way to many victims by passing as vapor through a highly reactive medium. Here we estimate rates and pathways for the removal of gas phase sarin from a generalized urban atmosphere. Only information from the open scientific literature is used. By structure reactivity comparisons with the organophosphorus pesticides, hydroxyl radical hydrogen abstraction may occur in as little as one hour. Decomposition of side chains after hydroxyl attack leads to organic oxygenates which preserve the phosphonofluoridate and so toxicity. The aqueous aerosol surface is contacted in minutes and offers access to a range of dissolved nucleophiles. Substitution displaces the fluoride leaving group, giving safe phosphoric acid analogs. Because of uncertainties in the electron distribution and in aqueous decay mechanisms, the time constants must be viewed as lower limits.     

Preparedness for anthrax attack: the effect of knowledge on the willingness to treat patients

Little is known about the factors that may impact on the willingness of physicians and nurses to treat patients during a bioterrorism attack. This survey was conducted among 76 randomly selected nurses and physicians in the emergency rooms of three public hospitals in order to analyse the relationship between knowledge, profession and the willingness to treat anthrax. The study finds that the willingness of physicians and nurses to come to work is 50% greater among the group with the highest knowledge about anthrax (P < 0.0001). Within that group, the willingness to treat patients suspected of being infected with anthrax was 37% greater (P < 0.0001) and the willingness to treat patients diagnosed with anthrax was 28% greater (P = 0.004) than in the other groups. These results imply that enhancement of knowledge among health care workers may improve their willingness to come to work and treat patients infected with anthrax during a bioterrorism attack.