Why ecosystem management can't work without Social science: An example from the California northern spotted owl controversy

It is increasingly obvious that social science, while not a sufficient condition for making ecosystem management effective, is a necessary condition. A social science typology of ecosystems is developed, applied, and shown to have substantial and unexpected implications for the practice of ecosystem management. Ecologists and environmental scientists, in particular, will find some conclusions uncomfortable. The application involves a case material from the California northern spotted owl controversy.     

EcoTroph: Modelling marine ecosystem functioning and impact of fishing

EcoTroph (ET) is a model articulated around the idea that the functioning of aquatic ecosystems may be viewed as a biomass flow moving from lower to higher trophic levels, due to predation and ontogenetic processes. Thus, we show that the ecosystem biomass present at a given trophic level may be estimated from two simple equations, one describing biomass flow, the other their kinetics (which quantifies the velocity of biomass transfers towards top predators). The flow kinetic of prey partly depends on the abundance of their predators, and a top-down equation expressing this is included in the model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the impact on a virtual ecosystem of various exploitation patterns. Specifically, we show that the EcoTroph approach is able to mimic the effects of increased fishing effort on ecosystem biomass expected from theory. Particularly, the model exhibits complex patterns observed in field data, notably cascading effects and ‘fishing down the food web’. EcoTroph also provides diagnostic tools for examining the relationships between catch and fishing effort at the ecosystem scale and the effects of strong top-down controls and fast-flow kinetics on ecosystems resilience. Finally, a dynamic version of the model is derived from the steady-state version, thus allowing simulations of time series of ecosystem biomass and catches. Using this dynamic model, we explore the propagation of environmental variability in the food web, and illustrated how exploitation can induce a decrease of ecosystem stability. The potential for applying EcoTroph to specific ecosystems, based on field data, and similarities between EcoTroph and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) are finally discussed.     

Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems

Fishing mortality and primary production (or proxy for) were used to drive the dynamics of fish assemblages in 9 trophodynamic models of contrasting marine ecosystems. Historical trends in abundance were reconstructed by fitting model predictions to observations from stock assessments and fisheries independent survey data. The model fitting exercise derives values for otherwise unknown parameters that specify the relative strength of trophic interactions and, in some instances, a time series anomaly for changes in primary production. We measured how much better or worse were model predictions when bottom-up forcing by primary production were added to top-down forcing by fishing. Searching for cross system patterns, the relative contribution of fishing and changes in primary production, mediated through trophic interactions, are evaluated for the ecosystems as a whole and for selected similar species in different ecosystems. The analysis provides a simple qualitative way to explain which forcing factors have most influence on modeled dynamics. Both fishing and primary production forcing were required to obtain the best model fits to data. Fishing effects more strongly influenced 6 of 9 of the ecosystems, but primary production was more often found to be the main factor influencing the selected pelagic and demersal fish stock trends. Examination of sensitivity to ecological and model parameters suggests that the results are the product of complex food-web interactions rather than simple deterministic responses of the models.     

Changing Approaches to Mountain Watersheds Management in Mainland South and Southeast Asia

Mountain watersheds, comprising a substantial proportion of national territories of countries in mainland South and Southeast Asia, are biophysical and socioeconomic entities, regulating the hydrological cycle, sequestrating carbon dioxide, and providing natural resources for the benefit of people living in and outside the watersheds. A review of the literature reveals that watersheds are undergoing degradation at varying rates caused by a myriad of factors ranging from national policies to farmers' socioeconomic conditions. Many agencies—governmental and private—have tried to address the problem in selected watersheds. Against the backdrop of the many causes of degradation, this study examines the evolving approaches to watershed management and development. Until the early 1990s, watershed management planning and implementation followed a highly centralized approach focused on heavily subsidized structural measures of soil conservation, planned and implemented without any consultation with the mainstream development agencies and local people. Watershed management was either the sole responsibility of specially created line agencies or a project authority established by external donors. As a consequence, the initiatives could not be continued or contribute to effective conservation of watersheds. Cognizant of this, emphasis has been laid on integrated, participatory approaches since the early 1990s. Based on an evaluation of experiences in mainland South and Southeast Asia, this study finds not much change in the way that management plans are being prepared and executed. The emergence of a multitude of independent watershed management agencies, with their own organizational structures and objectives and planning and implementation systems has resulted in watershed management endeavors that have been in complete disarray. Consistent with the principle of sustainable development, a real integrated, participatory approach requires area-specific conservation programs that are well incorporated into integrated socioeconomic development plans prepared and implemented by local line agencies in cooperation with nongovernment organizations (NGOs) and concerned people.     

Surface installations intended for Carbon Capture and Sequestration: Atypical accident scenarios and their identification

With the advent of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) technology the extent of CO₂ handling is set to increase dramatically. However, lack of substantial operational experience in such a novel process can lead to significant difficulties in identifying the associated hazards. This field may be characterized by atypical accident scenarios, i.e. scenarios not captured by common HAZard IDentification (HAZID) techniques because of omissions, errors or lack of knowledge. Recent atypical events evidence that consequences may exceed by far those of worst-case reference scenarios. Identification of atypical scenarios related to CCS is a challenge, considering also the public concern that this technology raises. This study focuses on new and emerging technologies of carbon capture and transport. A HAZID analysis was carried out by means of two different approaches (‘top-down’ and ‘DyPASI’). This allowed not only for a double check of results, but also for the comparative assessment of the methodologies and of their applicability. A general overview of the accident scenarios related to these technologies was given. No absolute showstoppers were found. Rather, a number of potential hazards were identified which will require the adoption of safe design principles to eliminate, prevent, control or mitigate them. Some possible safety barriers required for implementation were identified as a starting point in this process.     

Top-down法计算中国五氯酚钠消费分布

为履行<关于持久性有机污染物(POPs)的斯德哥尔摩公约>,中国将逐渐淘汰POPs的生产和使用,环境介质中POPs浓度监测和处置是履约工作的重要部分,而其消费分布的研究可以为监测和模型计算找出重点区域.采用Top-down法,根据当年全国的五氯酚钠消费,以药物灭螺面积、钉螺面积、血吸虫病流行村数等为替代数据,计算了各省份的五氯酚钠消费分布,并进一步计算出省内各市级地区的五氯酚钠消费分布.从2003年的计算结果来看,五氯酚钠消费最大的是湖北省和湖南省,两省五氯酚钠消费占到全国总消费的72.62%.最主要的地区是湖北省荆州市和湖南省岳阳市、常德市、益阳市,分别占全国总消费的15.25%、12.78%、11.72%、9.89%,总和占到全国总消费的49.64%,上述地区将成为今后研究和监测的重点区域.     

Structuring pelagic trophic networks from the biomass size spectra

The selection and establishment of the structure (number and compartments, aggregation criteria, and trophic links) of the food webs is a critical task in trophic modelling. The present work proposes a systematic method to structure trophic networks in pelagic food webs. The biomass-size spectrum (BSS) is a well-established approach to analyze the structure of pelagic communities, and the body size is especially related to the ecological role of the organisms in the pelagic environment. To structure food webs, this work uses detailed arrangements of the community in size classes with increasing widths (like Sheldon-type BSS) as first aggregation criteria, and BSS theory as a framework to integrate the available knowledge about feeding selectivity in order to obtain a method to identify the trophic links between compartments. Diet composition matrices were estimated through the combination of a probability of encounter for each food type and a specific probability of ingestion related to the food size selectivity and other food quality characteristics (e.g., morphology and nutritional quality). The feasibility of this approach has been illustrated through data of size-structured communities extracted from the literature including different planktonic predator guilds (nanoflagellates, cladoceran-dominated zooplankton and copepod-dominated zooplankton) in a high mountain lake (La Caldera, Spain), two subtropical wetland lakes (meso-oligotrophic Laguna Galarza and eutrophic Laguna Iberá, Argentina) and a marine microcosm (Alborán Sea, Mediterranean). The identification of “who eats whom” and “by how much” also allows for more accurate analyses of the trophic control in the BSS. Extensive analyses of the balance between top-down and bottom-up controls were developed for the feeding interactions of the study cases.     

Patternising phytoplankton dynamics of two shallow lakes in response to restoration measures by applying non-supervised artificial neural networks

Long-term time-series data sets of two shallow Dutch lakes, Lake Veluwemeer and Lake Wolderwijd were subjected to ordination and clustering by means of non-supervised artificial neural networks (ANN). Splitting of the data sets into sub-series corresponding with three different management periods have allowed a comparative analysis of both the short-term seasonal and long-term phytoplankton dynamics in relation to the restoration measures. The lakes were considered as hyper-eutrophic and have been managed both with bottom-up and top-down management approaches. Results of the study have demonstrated that non-supervised ANN allow to elucidate causal relationships of complex ecological processes (1) within the specific genus, Oscillatoria and Scenedesmus and (2) the combination of external nutrient control and in-lake food web manipulation of the two lakes achieved to control eutrophication.     

利用top down控制图评定库伦法测定煤中全硫的不确定度

利用top-down控制图评定库伦法测定煤中全硫的不确定度，通过对标准煤品的多次测试结果计算正态统计量，并对数据的正态性和独立性作判别，在确保数据随机排列的基础上，计算期间精密度标准差，最终得到该项目的不确定度评定结果。     

Preparation and Validation of Gridded Emission Inventory of Criteria Air Pollutants and Identification of Emission Hotspots for Megacity Delhi

Delhi is one of the many megacities struggling with punishing levels of pollution from industrial, residential, and transportation sources. Over the years, pollution abatement in Delhi has become an important constituent of state policies. In the past one decade a lot of policies and regulations have been implemented which have had a noticeable effect on pollution levels. In this context, air quality models provide a powerful tool to study the impact of development plans on the expected air pollution levels and thus aid the regulating and planning authorities in decision-making process. In air quality modeling, emissions in the modeling domain at regular interval are one of the most important inputs. From the annual emission data of over a decade (1990–2000), emission inventory is prepared for the megacity Delhi. Four criteria pollutants namely, CO, SO₂, PM, and NO _x are considered and a gridded emission inventory over Delhi has been prepared taking into account land use pattern, population density, traffic density, industrial areas, etc. A top down approach is used for this purpose. Emission isopleths are drawn and annual emission patterns are discussed mainly for the years 1990, 1996 and 2000. Primary and secondary areas of emission hotspots are identified and emission variations discussed during the study period. Validation of estimated values is desired from the available data. There is a direct relationship of pollution levels and emission strength in a given area. Hence, an attempt has been made to validate the emission inventory for all criteria pollutants by analyzing emissions in various sampling zones with the ambient pollution levels. For validation purpose, the geographical region encompassing the study area (Delhi) has been divided into seven emission zones as per the air quality monitoring stations using Voronoi polygon concept. Dispersion modeling is also used for continuous elevated sources to have the contributing emissions at the ground level to facilitate validation. A good correlation between emission estimates and concentration has been found. Correlation coefficient of 0.82, 0.77, 0.58 and 0.68 for CO, SO₂, PM and NO _x respectively shows a reasonably satisfactory performance of the present estimates.