基于CA的城市形态扩展多解模拟——以北京市东部平原区情景分析为例

构建了一个基于人工神经网络的约束型城市扩展CA模型。利用该模型,预测了北京市东部平原区在3种情景规划之下的未来50年的城市形态,为不同的城市发展模式之间的比较分析奠定基础。然后以2024年的北京东部平原区模拟城市形态为基准,从自然生态功效、社会服务功效、经济利益功效3个方面对3种规划模式进行了情景分析,从而系统的比较了3种规划模式的复合生态功效,为城市规划决策提供有力的支持。     

河道生态环境保护与治理工作

现阶段,随着社会经济的不断发展,国家越来越重视河道整治工作。目前,依然存在着部分河道污染严重的问题。本文将对河道生态环境保护与治理工作进行分析研究,希望为相关工作人员提供参考。     

"十三五"国家自然科学基金对能源环境管理领域的资助状况和趋势

能源环境管理是各界关注的热点话题,也是科学研究的重要方向.以国家自然科学基金资助能源环境管理领域的科研项目为基础数据信息,本文重点分析了"十三五"期间国家自然科学基金在该领域资助项目的总体特征、研究主题和热点变化,并结合新时代科学基金资助导向提出了可能的发展趋势.主要结论包括:①能源环境管理领域面上、青年、地区等自由探索类项目的立项绝对数和学科占比均呈上升趋势,并更多向青年学者倾斜,资助强度保持稳定;②碳、能源和环境是自由探索项目中出现频率最高的热词,与之相关的研究主题随着政策等调整具有动态变化特征;③能源环境管理领域重点、重大等引导类项目和优青、杰青、创新研究群体等人才类项目不断实现突破,增速明显,学科占比优势突出;④问题导向与本土情景、理论体系和一般规律、学科交叉融合,以及市场和微观主体作用是研究选题确立与项目申请时可能需要重点关注的方向.     

Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

Formulaic Expert Method to Integrate Evaluation and Valuation of Heritage Trees in Compact City

Urban trees serve important environmental, social and economic functions, but similar to other natural endowments they are not customarily depicted in monetary terms. The needs to augment protection, funding and community support for urban greening call for proper valuation. Heritage trees (HTs), the cream of urban-tree stock, deserve special attention. Existing assessment methods do not give justice to outstanding trees in compact cities deficient in high-caliber greenery, and to their social-cultural-historical importance. They artificially separate evaluation from valuation, which should be a natural progression from the former. Review of tree valuation methods suggested the formula approach to be more suitable than contingent valuation and hedonic pricing, and provided hints on their strengths and weaknesses. This study develops an alternative formulaic expert method (FEM) that integrates evaluation and valuation, maximizes objectivity, broadly encompasses the key tree, tree-environment and tree-human traits, and accords realistic monetary value to HTs. Six primary criteria (dimension, species, tree, condition, location, and outstanding consideration) branched into 45 secondary criteria, each allocated numerical marks. Each primary criterion was standardized to carry equal weight, and a tree's maximum aggregate score is capped at 100. A Monetary Assignment Factor (MAF) to consign dollar value to each score unit was derived from three-year average per m² sale price of medium-sized residential flats. The applicability of FEM was tested on selected HTs in compact Hong Kong. The aggregate score of a tree multiplied by MAF yielded monetary value, which was on average 66 times higher than the result from the commonly-adopted Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers method. The computed tree values could be publicized together with multiple tree benefits to raise understanding and awareness and rally support to protect HTs. The property-linked FEM could be flexibly applied to other cities, especially to assess HTs in compact developing cities.     

Prevalence of alcohol among nonfatally injured road accident casualties in two level III trauma centers in northern Ghana

Background: Alcohol use is pervasive among motorists on the road in Ghana; however, we do not know the extent to which this behavior is implicated in road accidents in this country.

Objectives: The main objective of this research was to establish the prevalence of alcohol in the blood of nonfatally injured casualties in the emergency departments (EDs) in northern Ghana.

Method: Participants were injured road traffic crash victims, namely, pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and drivers seeking treatment at an ED. The study sites were 2 level III trauma centers located in Wa and Bolgatanga. Participants were screened for alcohol followed by breath tests for positive participants using breathalyzers.

Results: Two hundred and sixty-two accident victims visited EDs, 58% of whom were in Wa. Among the victims, 41% were hospitalized and 57% experienced slight injuries. The vast majority (76%) of the casualties were motorcyclists, 13% were pedestrians, 8% were cyclists, and 2% were drivers. Casualties who had detectable alcohol in their blood were predominantly vulnerable road users. In all, 34% of participants had detectable blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) and the mean BAC for all casualties who tested positive and could give definitive BACs was 0.2265 (226 mg/dl). The prevalence of alcohol use was 53% among cyclists, 34% among motorcyclists, 21% among pedestrians, and 17% among drivers. Male casualties were more likely to test positive for alcohol than females. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol was significantly higher among injured casualties in Bolgatanga compared to Wa.

Conclusion: There was a high prevalence of alcohol use among nonfatally injured casualties in northern Ghana and injury severity increased with BAC. AUDIT screening in the hospital, alcohol consumption guideline, road safety education with an emphasis on minimizing or eliminating alcohol consumption, and enhanced enforcement of the BAC limit among motorists are recommended.     

Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland

Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year⁻¹ and 115 t P year⁻¹. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.     

Metal accumulation and performance of nestlings of passerine bird species at an urban brownfield site

The use of passerine species as bioindicators of metal bioaccumulation is often underutilized when examining the wildlife habitat value of polluted sites. In this study we tested feathers of nestlings of two common bird species (house wren and American robin) for accumulation of Pb, Zn, As, Cr, Cu, Fe in comparison of a polluted, urban brownfield with a rural, unpolluted site. House wren nestlings at the study site accumulated significantly greater concentrations of all target metals except Zn. At the polluted site we found significant species differences of metal concentrations in feathers, with house wrens accumulating greater concentrations of Pb, Fe, and Zn but slightly lesser accumulations of Cr and Cu than American robins. Although house wren nestlings demonstrated significant accumulation of metals, these concentrations showed little effect on size metrics or fledge rates during the breeding season compared to nestlings from the control site.     

Ecologically Functional Floodplains: Connectivity,Flow Regime,and Scale1

Opperman, Jeffrey J., Ryan Luster, Bruce A. McKenney, Michael Roberts, and Amanda Wrona Meadows, 2010. Ecologically Functional Floodplains: Connectivity, Flow Regime, and Scale. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):211-226. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00426.x Abstract: This paper proposes a conceptual model that captures key attributes of ecologically functional floodplains, encompassing three basic elements: (1) hydrologic connectivity between the river and the floodplain, (2) a variable hydrograph that reflects seasonal precipitation patterns and retains a range of both high and low flow events, and (3) sufficient spatial scale to encompass dynamic processes and for floodplain benefits to accrue to a meaningful level. Although floodplains support high levels of biodiversity and some of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, they are also among the most converted and threatened ecosystems and therefore have recently become the focus of conservation and restoration programs across the United States and globally. These efforts seek to conserve or restore complex, highly variable ecosystems and often must simultaneously address both land and water management. Thus, such efforts must overcome considerable scientific, technical, and socioeconomic challenges. In addition to proposing a scientific conceptual model, this paper also includes three case studies that illustrate methods for addressing these technical and socioeconomic challenges within projects that seek to promote ecologically functional floodplains through river-floodplain reconnection and/or restoration of key components of hydrological variability.     

Recovery of Sediment Characteristics in Moraine,Headwater Streams of Northern Minnesota After Forest Harvest1

Merten, Eric C., Nathaniel A. Hemstad, Randall K. Kolka, Raymond M. Newman, Elon S. Verry, and Bruce Vondracek, 2010. Recovery of Sediment Characteristics in Moraine, Headwater Streams of Northern Minnesota After Forest Harvest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 733-743. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00445.x Abstract: We investigated the recovery of sediment characteristics in four moraine, headwater streams in north-central Minnesota after forest harvest. We examined changes in fine sediment levels from 1997 (preharvest) to 2007 (10 years postharvest) at study plots with upland clear felling and riparian thinning, using canopy cover, proportion of unstable banks, surficial fine substrates, residual pool depth, and streambed depth of refusal as response variables. Basin-scale year effects were significant (p < 0.001) for all responses when evaluated by repeated-measures ANOVAs. Throughout the study area, unstable banks increased for several years postharvest, coinciding with an increase in windthrow and fine sediment. Increased unstable banks may have been caused by forest harvest equipment, increased windthrow and exposure of rootwads, or increased discharge and bank scour. Fine sediment in the channels did not recover by summer 2007, even though canopy cover and unstable banks had returned to 1997 levels. After several storm events in fall 2007, 10 years after the initial sediment input, fine sediment was flushed from the channels and returned to 1997 levels. Although our study design did not discern the source of the initial sediment inputs (e.g., forest harvest, road crossings, other natural causes), we have shown that moraine, headwater streams can require an extended period (up to 10 years) and enabling event (e.g., high storm flows) to recover from large inputs of fine sediment.