An Assessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

Past attempts to measure the economic consequences of ozone on agriculture have been based on limited plant science information. This paper reports on an economic assessment of ozone on U.S. agriculture using recent crop response data from the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The results are derived from a U.S. agricultural sector model that includes major crop and livestock production as well as domestic consumption, livestock feeding and export uses. The economic effects of four hypothetical ambient ozone levels are investigated. The analysis Indicates that the benefits to society of moderate (25%) ozone reductions are approximately $1.7 billion. A 25% Increase in ozone pollution results in costs (negative benefits) of $2.1 billion. These estimates do not reflect compliance costs of achieving the ozone changes and hence are not net benefits.     

The Fate of Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Photochemical Smog Systems: Toluene

The economic impact of various ozone concentrations on California agriculture is examined using an economic model of crop production that accounts for interdependence among crops. Such interdependence recognizes that net economic effects are determined not only by yield sensitivity to ozone but also by market conditions that affect relative crop prices and profitability. Changes in crop yields due to alternations in ambient ozone concentrations are used to drive the economic model. The predicted yield changes are derived from NCLAN data under a range of assumptions concerning functional form and yield effects. The results indicate that the economic effects of ozone are substantial for 13 included crops. The economic estimates display varying sensitivity to the functional form of the response relationship. The need for additional experimental data to more precisely define the relationship depends on the range of policy actions being considered.     

Important Considerations for Establishing a Secondary Ozone Standard to Protect Vegetation

Air quality standards are established to prevent or minimize the risk of adverse effects from air pollution to human health, vegetation, and materials. In order to develop standards which provide an adequate measure of protection to vegetation, it is necessary to define, in as precise terms as possible, the relationship between ambient air quality and the potential for adverse effects on vegetation. Based on recent evidence published in the literature, as well as retrospective studies using data from the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN), cumulative indices can be used to describe exposures of ozone for predicting agricultural crop effects. However, the mathematical form of the standard that may be proposed to protect crops does not necessarily have to be of the same form as that used in the statistical or process oriented mathematical models that relate ambient ozone exposures with vegetation effects. This paper discusses the limitations associated with applying a simple statistic that may take the place of a more biologically meaningful exposure parameter. While the NCLAN data have been helpful in identifying indices that may be appropriate for establishing exposure-response relationships, the limitations associated with the NCLAN protocol need to be considered when attempting to apply these relationships in the establishment of a secondary national ambient air quality standard. The Weibull model derived from NCLAN experiments must demonstrate its generality and universal applicability. Furthermore, its predictive power must be tested using independent sets of field data.     

An Evaluation of the Kriging Method to Predict 7-h Seasonal Mean Ozone Concentrations for Estimating Crop Losses

Using kriging, a statistical technique, the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN) program estimated growing season 5-month (May-September) ambient 7-h mean O₃ concentrations for each of the major crop growing areas of the United States for 1978-1982. The O₃ estimates were used to predict economic benefits anticipated by lowering O₃ levels in the United States. This paper reviews NCLAN’s use of kriging to estimate 7-h seasonal mean O₃ concentrations for crop growing regions. Although the original kriging program used by NCLAN incorrectly calculated the diagonal elements of the kriging equations, this omission did not result in significant errors in the predicted estimates. Most of the data used in estimating the 7-h seasonal values were obtained from urban areas; the use of these data tended to underestimate the 7-h seasonal O₃ concentrations in rural areas. It is recommended that only O₃ data that are representative of agricultural areas and have been collected under accepted quality assurance programs be used In future kriging efforts.     

Air Pollution Research Needs: Herbaceous and Ornamental Plants and Agriculturally Generated Pollutants

Effects of various air pollutants on economically important crops and ornamentals have been studied since before the turn of the century.

Summaries of this research on the effects of air pollutants, that have appeared in criteria documents developed by the Environmental Protection Agency, should be reviewed with respect to differences in plant susceptibility found in various regions of the country. These susceptibility differences are associated with variations in both environmental conditions and distribution of pollutants. Research efforts on air pollution injury to vegetation have often been poorly coordinated leaving many gaps in our knowledge. A better assessment of the impact of air pollution on vegetation is required to attain realistic controls for pollutants affecting agriculture. Research areas of major concern include: baseline information on effects of pollutants on agricultural productivity; dose-response information to support predictive mathematical models for acute and chronic studies of growth, yield, and quality effects; effects of pollutants interacting with other pollutants and with insects and plant diseases; mechanisms of pollutant action; genetic changes related to pollutant effects; effects of environmental stresses on plant response to pollutants; evaluation of plants including soil microbes as pollutant sinks; development of techniques to minimize pollutant effects; and, the effects of agricultural chemicals as air pollutants. There is a need for studies that consider the whole plant in its natural environment. Conceptual models interrelating pollutant effects and their interactions and ultimately mathematical models will be needed to develop an intelligent approach to land management. The effects of agriculturally produced pollutants on plants and other receptors must be identified and quantified.     

Evaluation of light-duty vehicle mobile source regulations on ozone concentration trends in 2018 and 2030 in the western and eastern United States

To improve U.S. air quality, there are many regulations on-the-way (OTW) and on-the-books (OTB), including mobile source California Low Emission Vehicle third generation (LEV III) and federal Tier 3 standards. This study explores the effects of those regulations by using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for 8-hr ozone concentrations in the western and eastern United States in the years 2018 and 2030 during a month with typical high ozone concentrations, July. Alterations in pollutant emissions can be due to technological improvements, regulatory amendments, and changes in growth. In order to project emission rates for future years, the impacts of all of these factors were estimated. This study emphasizes the potential light-duty vehicle emission changes by year to predict ozone levels. The results of this study show that most areas have decreases in 8-hr ozone concentrations in the year 2030, although there are some areas with increased concentrations. Additionally, there are areas with 8-hr ozone concentrations greater than the current U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard level, which is 75 ppb.

Implications:

To improve U.S. air quality, many regulations are on the way and on the books, including mobile source California LEV III and federal Tier 3 standards. This study explores the effects of those regulations for 8-hr ozone concentrations in the western and eastern United States in the years 2018 and 2030. The results of this study show that most areas have decreases in 8-hr ozone concentrations in 2030, although there are some areas with increased concentrations. Additionally, there are areas with 8-hr ozone concentrations greater than the current U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard level.     

A comparison of model photochemical ozone formation potential with observed regional scale ozone formation during a photochemical episode over the United Kingdom in April 1987

A photochemical trajectory model has been employed to calculate the maximum potential for ozone generation in air parcels passing over the U.K. during a photochemical pollution episode in April 1987. In all, 11 trajectories have been studied and the model results compared against an objective analysis of the integrated ozone generation based on the observations reported from the U.K. Department of the Environment ground level O₃network. There is apparently good correlation between the observed O₃formation and the model O₃formation potential although the latter overestimates the former by a factor of about 2.8. The solar illumination conditions employed in the photochemical trajectory model may have caused this overestimation, since the model is formulated for O₃control strategy assessment and simulates the ‘worst case’ situation likely to give the maximum potential for secondary pollutant formation. In addition to the model results for O₃, a wide range of primary and secondary pollutant concentrations from the model were examined, together with the influence of precursor pollutant emissions.     

“Cold Side” Precipitators

The apparent present effect of regional pollutant loads on crops and forests in the central midwest states was evaluated as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES). The consequences of the local and regional loadings of SO₂ and O₃ for agricultural yields are summarized as “crop-loss coefficients,” based on the published experimental effects data, and applied to agricultural lands in the Ohio Valley region through regional monitoring of the two pollutant gases. The results are shown as upper and lower bounds containing the most probable crop loss values. The results also are reported as total potential increases in crop yields for the ORBES region, expressed as bushels, appropriate, within the limits of uncertainty, for economic and related energy policy evaluations.     

Changes in seasonal and diurnal cycles of ozone and temperature in the eastern U.S.

The pollutant tropospheric ozone causes human health problems, and environmental degradation and acts as a potent greenhouse gas. Using long-term hourly observations at five US air quality monitoring surface stations we studied the seasonal and diel cycles of ozone concentrations and surface air temperature to examine the temporal evolution over the past two decades. Such an approach allows visualizing the impact of natural and anthropogenic processes on ozone; nocturnal inversion development, photochemistry, and stratospheric intrusion. Analysis of the result provides an option for determining the duration for a regulatory ozone season. The application of the method provides independent confirmation of observed changes and trends in the ozone and temperature data records as reported elsewhere. The results provide further evidence supporting the assertion that ozone reductions can be attributed to emission reductions as opposed to weather variation. Despite a (～0.5 °C decade^?1) daytime warming trend, ozone decreased by up to 6 ppb decade^?1 during times of maximum temperature in the most polluted locations. Ozone also decreased across the emission reduction threshold of 2002 by 6–10 ppb indicating that emission reductions have been effective where and when it is most needed. Longer time series, and coupling with other data sources, may allow for the direct investigation of climate change influence on regional ozone air pollution formation and destruction over annual and daily time scales.     

A flux-based assessment of the effects of ozone on foliar injury, photosynthesis, and yield of bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L. cv. Borlotto Nano Lingua di Fuoco) in open-top chambers

Stomatal ozone uptake, determined with the Jarvis' approach, was related to photosynthetic efficiency assessed by chlorophyll fluorescence and reflectance measurements in open-top chamber experiments on Phaseolus vulgaris. The effects of O₃ exposure were also evaluated in terms of visible and microscopical leaf injury and plant productivity. Results showed that microscopical leaf symptoms, assessed as cell death and H₂O₂ accumulation, preceded by 3-4 days the appearance of visible symptoms. An effective dose of ozone stomatal flux for visible leaf damages was found around 1.33 mmol O₃ m⁻². Significant linear dose-response relationships were obtained between accumulated fluxes and optical indices (PRI, NDI, ΔF/F_m^′). The negative effects on photosynthesis reduced plant productivity, affecting the number of pods and seeds, but not seed weight. These results, besides contributing to the development of a flux-based ozone risk assessment for crops in Europe, highlight the potentiality of reflectance measurements for the early detection of ozone stress.     

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Atmospheric Pollutants in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Part I: Hourly and Seasonal Ozone

Abstract

Recently, a comprehensive air quality modeling system was developed as part of the Southern Appalachians Mountains Initiative (SAMI) with the ability to simulate meteorology, emissions, ozone, size- and composition-resolved particulate matter, and pollutant deposition fluxes. As part of SAMI, the RAMS/EMS-95/URM-1ATM modeling system was used to evaluate potential emission control strategies to reduce atmospheric pollutant levels at Class I areas located in the Southern Appalachians Mountains. This article discusses the details of the ozone model performance and the methodology that was used to scale discrete episodic pollutant levels to seasonal and annual averages. The daily mean normalized bias and error for 1-hr and 8-hr ozone were within U.S. Environment Protection Agency guidance criteria for urban-scale modeling. The model typically showed a systematic overestimation for low ozone levels and an underestimation for high levels. Because SAMI was primarily interested in simulating the growing season ozone levels in Class I areas, daily and seasonal cumulative ozone exposure, as characterized by the W126 index, were also evaluated. The daily ozone W126 performance was not as good as the hourly ozone performance; however, the seasonal ozone W126 scaled up from daily values was within 17% of the observations at two typical Class I areas of the SAMI region. The overall ozone performance of the model was deemed acceptable for the purposes of SAMI’s assessment.     

Summertime photochemical ozone formation in Santiago,Chile

The city of Santiago, Chile experiences frequent high pollution episodes and as a consequence very high ozone concentrations, which are associated with health problems including increasing daily mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses. The development of ozone abatement strategies requires the determination of the potential of each pollutant to produce ozone, taking into account known mechanisms and chemical kinetics in addition to ambient atmospheric conditions. In this study, the photochemical formation of ozone during a summer campaign carried out from March 8–20, 2005 has been investigated using an urban photochemical box model based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1). The MCM box model has been constrained with 10 min averages of simultaneous measurements of HONO, HCHO, CO, NO, j(O¹D), j(NO₂), 31 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and meteorological parameters. The O₃–NO_x–VOC sensitivities have been determined by simulating ozone formation at different VOC and NO_x concentrations. Ozone sensitivity analyses showed that photochemical ozone formation is VOC-limited under average summertime conditions in Santiago. The results of the model simulations have been compared with a set of potential empirical indicator relationships including H₂O₂/HNO₃, HCHO/NO_y and O₃/NO_z. The ozone forming potential of each measured VOC has been determined using the MCM box model. The impacts of the above study on possible summertime ozone control strategies in Santiago are discussed.     

Economic Assessment of the Effects of Air Pollution on Agricultural Crops in the San Joaquin Valley

Physical and economic impacts of 1978 ambient levels of ozone and sulfur dioxide on 33 crops In the San Joaquin Valley are estimated. The field data regression approach Is used and evaluated for estimating yield losses. The effects of alternative air pollution measures and regression functional forms are evaluated. An economic model is employed that accounts for both farm and market responses to yield improvements from reduced air pollution. Economic damages were estimated to exceed $100 million in 1978 with the biggest losers being the producers of cotton and producers and consumers of grapes, a crop that has heretofore been Ignored in agricultural assessments of pollution damage.     

Sub-canopy deposition of ozone in a stand of cutleaf coneflower

Although there has been a great deal of research on ozone, interest in exposure of native, herbaceous species is relatively recent and it is still not clear what role the pollutant has in their ecological fitness. The ozone exposure of a plant is usually expressed in terms of the concentration above the canopy or as a time-weighted index. However, to understand the physiological effects of ozone it is necessary to quantify the ozone flux to individual leaves as they develop, which requires knowing the deposition velocity and concentration of the pollutant as a function of height throughout the plant canopy. We used a high-order closure model of sub-canopy turbulence to estimate ozone profiles in stands of cutleaf coneflower (Rudbeckia laciniata L.) located in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. The model was run for periods coinciding with a short field study, during which we measured vertical concentration profiles of ozone along with measurements of atmospheric turbulence and other meteorological and plant variables. Predictions of ozone profiles by the model are compared with observations throughout the canopy.     

Uncertainties in the Current Knowledge of Some Atmospheric Trace Gases Associated with U.S. Agriculture: A Review

Abstract

Approximately 80 different crop species are grown in the United States in widely differing geographic areas, climatic and edaphic conditions, and management practices. Although the majority of cultivated acreage in the United States is planted with only about 10 primary crops, uncertainties associated with trace gas emissions arise from: (1) limited data availability, (2) inaccurate estimates because of large temporal and spatial variability in trace gas composition and magnitude of trace gas emissions from agricultural activities, (3) differing characteristics of pollutant emissions from highly dispersed animal feed-lots, and (4) limited understanding of the emissions of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) associated with agriculture. Although emission issues are of concern, so also is atmospheric deposition to cropping systems, including wet and dry nitrogen, minerals, and organic compounds. These can have feedback effects on trace gas emissions. Overall, the many gaps in our understanding of these aspects of agricultural systems deserve serious attention.     

Consideration of Air Quality Standards for Vegetation With Respect to Ozone

Present evidence suggests that ozone is the most damaging of all air pollutants affecting vegetation. It is the principal oxidant in the photochemical smog complex. Concentrations of ozone have exceeded 0.5 part per million (ppm) in the Los Angeles area. One-tenth of this level for 8 hours is known to injure very sensitive tobacco varieties. Many plant species are visibly affected after a few hours exposure at concentrations much lower than 0.5 ppm. There is also some evidence that ozone reduces plant growth. Many factors must be taken into account when considering standards to protect vegetation from ozone damage. These include ozone concentration and methods of measurement, time of exposure, possible additive effects of other pollutants, sensitivity of plant species, their economic value, and the extent of injury which can be tolerated. The response of a species to the pollutant is conditioned by genetic factors and environmental conditions. Lack of specific routine methods for measuring ozone in ambient air is a handicap. California and Colorado established standards for oxidants at 0.15 and 0.10 ppm, respectively, for 1 hour. How these standards relate to the ozone dosage causing acute and chronic injury to various plant species is discussed.     

Empirical Evaluation of Ambient Ozone Interpolation Procedures to Support Exposure Models

ABSTRACT

An intercomparison study has been performed with six empirical ozone interpolation procedures to predict hourly concentrations in ambient air between monitoring stations. The objective of the study is to use monitoring network data to empirically identify an improved procedure to estimate ozone concentrations at subject exposure points. Four of the procedures in the study are currently used in human exposure models (nearest monitors daily mean and maximum, regression estimate used in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) pNEM, and inverse distance weighting), and two are being evaluated for this purpose (kriging in space and kriging in space and time). The study focused on spatial estimation during June 1-June 5, 1996, with relatively high observed ozone levels over Houston, Texas. The study evaluated these procedures at three types of locations with monitors of varying proximity. Results from the empirical evaluation indicate that kriging in space and time provides excellent estimates of ozone concentrations within a monitoring network, while the more often used techniques failed to capture observed pollutant concentrations. Improved estimation of pollutant concentrations within the region, and thus at subject locations, should result in improved exposure modeling.     

A study of ozone variation trend within area of affecting human health in Hong Kong

As far as the impact of air pollutants on human health being concerned, ozone is one of the main pollutants in atmosphere. In particular, the ground level ozone is responsible for a variety of adverse effects on both human being and plant life. To protect the humankind from such adverse health effects, early information and precautions of high ozone level need to be supplied in times. In this study, statistical characteristics of ground level ozone is analyzed according to the field monitoring data in mixed residential, commercial and industrial areas, e.g., Tsuen Wan area in Hong Kong. The study deals with the characteristics of hourly and daily mean ozone levels under different climatic conditions such as temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and other pollutant concentration levels. The study aims to investigate the importance of meteorological factors and their impact on relevant pollutant concentration levels from chemical aspect. Further, reasons causing the spatial and temporal variations of ozone levels are discussed. All these results will provide a physical basis for accurately predicting ozone concentration in extensive, future research.     

Multiple regression analysis in modeling of columnar ozone in Peninsular Malaysia

This study aimed to predict monthly columnar ozone (O₃) in Peninsular Malaysia by using data on the concentration of environmental pollutants. Data (2003–2008) on five atmospheric pollutant gases (CO₂, O₃, CH₄, NO₂, and H₂O vapor) retrieved from the satellite Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) were employed to develop a model that predicts columnar ozone through multiple linear regression. In the entire period, the pollutants were highly correlated (R?=?0.811 for the southwest monsoon, R?=?0.803 for the northeast monsoon) with predicted columnar ozone. The results of the validation of columnar ozone with column ozone from SCIAMACHY showed a high correlation coefficient (R?=?0.752–0.802), indicating the model’s accuracy and efficiency. Statistical analysis was utilized to determine the effects of each atmospheric pollutant on columnar ozone. A model that can retrieve columnar ozone in Peninsular Malaysia was developed to provide air quality information. These results are encouraging and accurate and can be used in early warning of the population to comply with air quality standards.     

Using Farmers’ Actions to Measure Crop Loss Due to Air Pollution

The effects of ozone on the profitability of Illinois cash grain farms is investigated by utilizing a profit function framework. This approach uses individual farms as the observational unit so the data are generated under field conditions. Hence, experimental plot data are not used although results from past biological experiments are utilized to frame initial hypotheses and for evaluation of the estimated model. This study demonstrates the benefits of combining economic data and biological science results to estimate the economic reactions of producers in terms of input and output (production) response to an ambient environmental characteristic.

A time series of cross sectional data on cash grain farms in Illinois is used to estimate two profit functions. Ozone data are measured on a growing season basis by county. The estimated model shows ozone has a negative effect on profits. Increases in ozone levels tend to depress output levels and lessen the demand for variable inputs. Additionally, a production function is derived from one of the profit functions. The impact of ozone is found to be in general agreement with dose-response data obtained in Illinois by plant scientists.