Sustainably Harvesting a Large Carnivore? Development of Eurasian Lynx Populations in Norway During 160 Years of Shifting Policy

The management of large carnivores in multiuse landscapes is always controversial, and managers need to balance a wide range of competing interests. Hunter harvest is often used to limit population size and distribution but is proving to be both controversialand technically challenging. Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) are currently managed as a game species in Norway. We describe an adaptive management approach where quota setting is based on an annual census and chart the population development through the period 1996–2008, as management has become significantly more sophisticated and better informed by the increased availability of scientific data. During this period the population has been through a period of high quotas and population decline caused by fragmented management authority and overoptimistic estimates of lynx reproduction, followed by a period of recovery due to quota reductions. The modern management regime is placed in the context of shifting policy during the last 160 years, during which management goals have moved from extermination stimulated by bounties, through a short phase of protection, and now to quota-regulated harvest. Much management authority has also been delegated from central to local levels. We conclude that adaptive management has the potential to keep the population within some bounded limits, although there will inevitably be fluctuation.     

Management of traditional hunting of dugongs [Dugong dugon (Müller, 1776)] in the northern Great Barrier Reef,Australia

Some of the largest concentrations of dugongs (Dugong dugon) occur in the coastal waters of eastern Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, Designation of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park has prompted the development of a program for management of dugong hunting by the aboriginal communities of the region. Assessment of the population by aerial surveys combined with monitoring of the aboriginal hunters' harvest suggest that the take is well below the sustainable yield. However, the reproductive rate of dugongs is so low that it will be a decade before the status of the population can be established. Therefore, a conservative management policy for dugongs is recommended while acknowledging the rights of traditional hunters. Greater participation of the aboriginal communities in the management program is sought to overcome initial misunderstandings and hostility.     

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.     

Simulating Spatial and Temporal Context of Forest Management Using Hypothetical Landscapes

/ Spatially explicit models that combine remote sensing with geographic information systems (GIS) offer great promise to land managers because they consider the arrangement of landscape elements in time and space. Their visual and geographic nature facilitate the comparison of alternative landscape designs. Among various activities associated with forest management, none cause greater concern than the impacts of timber harvesting on the composition, structure, and function of landscape ecosystems. A timber harvest allocation model (HARVEST) was used to simulate different intensities of timber harvest on 23,592-ha hypothetical landscapes with varying sizes of timber production areas and different initial stand age distributions. Our objectives were to: (1) determine the relative effects of the size of timber production areas, harvest intensity, method used to extract timber, and past timber harvest activity on the production of forest interior and edge; and (2) evaluate how past management (in the form of different initial stand age distributions) constrains future timber production options. Our simulations indicated that the total area of forest interior and the amount of forest edge were primarily influenced by the intensity of timber harvest and the size of openings created by harvest. The size of the largest block of interior forest was influenced most by the size of timber harvests, but the intensity of harvest was also significant, and the size of nontimber production areas was important when harvests were numerous and widely dispersed within timber management areas, as is often the case in managed forests. Stand age-class distributions produced by past harvest activity limited the amount of timber production primarily when group selection was used, but also limited clear-cutting when recent harvest levels were high.KEY WORDS: Simulation modeling; Timber harvest; Historical context; Spatial context; Landscape pattern; Forest interior; Forest edge     

A formal model for consensus and negotiation in environmental management

Environmental management decisions typically lie at the interface of science and public policy. Consequently, these decisions involve a number of stakeholders with competing agendas and vested interests in the ultimate decision. In such cases, it is appropriate to adopt formal methods for consensus building to ensure transparent and repeatable decisions. In this paper, we use an environmental management case study to demonstrate the utility of a mathematical consensus convergence model in aggregating values (or weights) across groups. Consensus models are applicable when all parties agree to negotiate in order to resolve conflict. The advantage of this method is that it does not require that all members of the group reach agreement, often an impossible task in group decision making. Instead, it uses philosophical foundations in consensus building to aggregate group members' values in a way that guarantees convergence towards a single consensual value that summarizes the group position. We highlight current problems with ad hoc consensus and negotiation methods, provide justification for the adoption of formal consensus convergence models and compare the consensus convergence model with currently used methods for aggregating values across a group in a decision making context. The model provides a simple and transparent decision support tool for group decision making that is straightforward to implement.     

Risk models for wildfowl diseases

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of computer models, including artificial intelligence systems, in the context of risk assessment and management for wildfowl diseases. In particular, the paper focuses on avian cholera and botulism in U.S. wildfowl, which are a source of continuing concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Severe outbreaks occur frequently, and some have been estimated to claim the lives of as many as 300 000 waterfowl. A potentially valuable support to the USFWS would be a set of models that assist in recognizing situations with high risk of an outbreak, assessing the anticipated severity of an outbreak, and advising on possible preventive measures. The USFWS has already initiated development of several potentially useful models. This paper reviews these as well as other related efforts, within the overall context of risk management for avian botulism and cholera.     

Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species

Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.     

IMPROVING AQUATIC HABITAT CONDITIONS OVER TIME WHILE PRODUCING WOOD PRODUCTS: AN EXAMINATION OF OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: A land management activity scheduling model that can perform a multi-period, simultaneous evaluation of aquatic habitat quality and commodity production goals was used to identify alternatives which would allow the improvement of aquatic habitat conditions over time, while producing wood products. The scheduling model has the ability to use stream sediment index levels, stream temperature index levels, and equivalent clearcut acres (ECA) levels as primary goals. A secondary goal imbedded in the model is the achievement of an even-flow of timber harvest volume, and a tertiary goal is the achievement of maximum efficiency (maximum net present value). The scheduling model utilizes a heuristic programming technique (Tabu search) to guide the selection of timber harvests and road standards. A 14,643 acre case study watershed in eastern Oregon is used to illustrate several policy scenarios. Activities considered include: clearcutting and partial cutting; cable, skyline, ground-based, and helicopter logging; road obliteration; requiring lower truck tire pressures on forest roads; and tree planting in riparian areas. The scheduling model produced land management plans which were spatially and temporally feasible over ten ten-year time periods. Stream temperature was shown to be dramatically reduced if tree planting is performed in all riparian areas, regardless of whether harvesting activities occurred, and including meadows and forested areas where shade density is low. Timber harvest volume levels decreased 31 to 43 percent, and net present value levels decreased 36 to 46 percent, from an unconstrained case, when any of the following occurred: ECA was constrained to 15 percent, sediment index levels were required to decrease by 1 percent per decade, or temperature levels were constrained to “no harvest” levels. The use of a heuristic programming technique is a departure from traditional techniques that are commonly used in management plan development. Yet the heuristic technique allows the inclusion of complex management goals, many of which may be prohibited when using more traditional mathematical programming techniques. In addition, decision variables which require spatial information, requiring them to take on integer or non-linear representations, can be accounted for without realizing the limitations of the traditional techniques.     

Urbanization's impact on timber harvesting in the south central United States

The impact of urbanization on timber harvesting in the south central United States was investigated. Geo-referenced Census and Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data were combined using a geographic information system (GIS) in order to examine the effects of various demographic and biophysical forest inventory characteristics on timber harvesting. These effects were estimated for intermediate and final harvests using a multinomial logit model. The probability for both types of harvests decreased with increasing population density, decreasing forest size, and decreasing distance to urban areas; however, the reduction in intermediate harvests was greater for each variable. Harvesting rates decreased by as much as 19% as population densities increased or distance to urban areas decreased. The results indicated that active forest management is curtailed far beyond the urban boundary. In order to model the impact of urbanization adequately, timber supply projections must also account for its impact on harvesting frequencies in surrounding areas.     

Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls

Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders.     

BIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SACRAMENTO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper brings together spatially and temporally explicit mechanistic models of hydrodynamic, water quality, and ecological processes with an economic model to examine water management alternatives for California's Sacramento River and Delta ecosystem, a large‐scale watershed. Overallocated water supplies in most years, combined with increasing demand for water for environmental purposes, have created a politically charged atmosphere and a need for quantitative assessment of the implications of policy alternatives. By developing and analyzing a common set of policy scenarios, this integrated framework allows us to consider tradeoffs between agricultural economic factors, water quality, and population dynamics for two at‐risk fish species. We analyze two rather extreme types of policy options; one involves structural modifications to change the flow of water within the watershed but no change in water diversions, while the other reallocates water from agricultural users to fish and wildlife. Results suggest that substantial environmental improvements could be made at a relatively modest cost to farmers (1 to 4 percent reductions in revenues) but that those costs could be significant locally. In addition to tradeoffs between farmers and environmental interests, results suggest that policy makers may need to balance competing environmental objectives.     

Hydropower,adaptive management,and Biodiversity

Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is followed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man's activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity.     

Problems in Extinction Model Selection and Parameter Estimation

It is a vexing problem to achieve a consensus about the proper scientific way to assess population viability for habitat conservation plans. Rather than a hypothesis-testing approach, here it is proposed to select population models, estimate extinction parameters, and assess prediction uncertainty using a pragmatic, empirical Bayesian approach. The simplest usable models include the effects of population growth, r; carrying capacity, K; Allee threshold, N(A); and environmental stochasticity, v(r). Analytic predictions of expected extinction times are available for such models. Models that are more complex can be elaborated from this basis. Selection from a hierarchy of nesting population models can often be done through the evaluation of parameters. The estimation of the most important extinction parameters can be undertaken in a variety of ways. Time series can be analyzed to estimate r(d), v(r), rho, and K. Habitat models and individualistic population models may help estimate N(A) and K and demographic stochasticity. Fine-scale biogeography and climatological data may be useful in the estimation of a variety of parameters. Because it takes many years to estimate extinction parameters accurately for a given population of interest, the most efficient estimation procedures are desirable. I propose the use of prior information from an (as yet nonexistent) population biology database. The accumulation of local information through monitoring will improve our estimates allowing adaptive management. Uncertainty in the estimates will always remain, but it may be quantified by the posterior distributions. A crude example is discussed using treefrog population data. Although the motivations, beliefs, and biases of competing stakeholders will differ, a habitat conservation plan could accommodate this variation in the prior distributions. Field experience from monitoring will increasingly clear up any discrepancies between the opposing beliefs and the real ecosystem. As the world is an uncertain place and because there is no universal scientific method, there will always be controversy and surprises. The best we can do is (1) agree about our prior information, (2) agree about the strategy of model selection and parameter estimation, and (3) agree about our strategy for adaptive management. Perhaps the greatest impediment to such prior agreements for HCPs is the likely paranoia inspired by the use of unfamiliar statistical methodology. We need to train students of ecology in a more flexible and deeper understanding of statistics and philosophy of science.     

Integrating forage,wildlife, water,and fish projections with timber projections at the regional level: A case study in southern United States

The impact of timber management and land-use change on forage production, turkey and deer abundance, red-cockaded woodpecker colonies, water yield, and trout abundance was projected as part of a policy study focusing on the southern United States. The multiresource modeling framework used in this study linked extant timber management and land-area policy models with newly developed models for forage, wildlife, fish, and water. Resource production was integrated through a commonly defined land base that could be geographically partitioned according to individual resource needs. Resources were responsive to changes in land use, particularly human-related, and timber management, particularly the harvest of older stands, and the conversion to planted pine.     

HARVESTING AS A CONTROL FOR AQUATIC PLANTS1

Studies of the effects of harvesting on hydrophytes in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin indicate that one harvest reduced growth by at least 50%, two harvests reduced it by 75% and three harvests virtually eliminated plant material for the year. The studies also indicated that harvesting one year reduced the biomass the following year, especially in deep water. Three harvests during the previous year were most effective in controlling biomass the second year.     

Heroism in a resource crisis: A simulation study

This study examined the effects of individual responsibility and communication in a simulated resource management problem. Subjects faced the problem of how to harvest resources from a regenerating pool so as to maximize their individual harvests without overexploiting the pool. One behavioral option open to individuals involved the sacrifice of a harvesting opportunity in order to add to the pool, thereby benefiting the rest of the group. A 2 x 2 factorial design was used to test the effect of this kind of heroism by (1) including a volunteer leader in the group and (2) including the possibility of communication. Results showed communication produced a significant increase in heroism and in group harvest, resulting from better management of the pool. The presence of a leader in a group had no overall effect on group performance. The implications of these findings for current resource management crises are discussed.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and availability of fish habitat; changed magnitude and seasonality of runoff regimes that alter nutrient loading and limit habitat availability at low flow; and loss of prairie pothole wetlands that reduces waterfowl populations. Many of the predicted changes in aquatic ecosystems are a consequence of climatic effects on terrestrial ecosystems; shifts in riparian vegetation and hydrology are particularly critical. We review models that could be used to explore potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems; these include models of instream flow, bioenergetics models, nutrient spiraling models, and models relating riverine food webs to hydrologic regime. We discuss potential ecological risks, benefits, and costs of climate change and identify information needs and model improvements that are required to improve our ability to predict and identify climate change impacts and to evaluate management options.     

ATFITUDES TOWARDS ARTIFICIAL WETLANDS IN ONTARIO FOR STORMWATER CONTROL AND WATERFOWL HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: The objective was to survey individuals from different interest groups in Ontario to ascertain attitudes towards the use of artificial wetlands for stormwater management and to provide waterfowl habitat. In total, 166 questionnaires were distributed and 124 cempleted returns were received. The results of the survey show that the provision of wetlands as waterfowl habitats in the context of stormwater impoundments is severely limited and is not considered an important management option. The overwhelming rejection of this integrated approach seems to be due to a lack of understanding and its comparative newness. Some of the perceived problems and concerns could be addressed by improvements in the design of the artificial wetlands. The design and implementation of an artificial wetland prototype as part of an education program in Ontario is recommended. A few research opportunities also are outlined.     

The failure of success in fisheries management

Law of the Sea negotiations and The Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976 create new options in fisheries management. Historical analysis of two major management programs in the United States of America, Columbia River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), shows two unresolved management problems. One is the innovativeness of fishermen in seeking ways to improve their harvests. The other is changing social priorities that are largely unpredictable and outside the control of fisheries managers. A method for analysis of patterning associated with management goals is illustrated. Since the general management goals are harvest improvement and more predictability, measures are used which show the adequacy of fit and reduction in variability between actual and predicted management outcomes.     

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF LARGE RIVERS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The technocratic approach for managing the Missouri River and other large rivers is not effective in resolving conflicts among competing uses of water and dealing with uncertainty about how river ecosystems respond to alternative management actions. Adaptive management offers an alternative way to address these and other issues. It has the potential to alleviate management gridlock and provide lasting solutions to management of the Missouri River and other large river ecosystems. In passive adaptive management, simulation models and expert judgment are combined to select a preferred management action. While passive adaptive management is relatively simple and inexpensive to use, it does not necessarily provide reliable information for making management decisions. Active adaptive management uses statistically designed experiments to test assumptions or hypotheses about ecosystem responses to management actions. It is best carried out by a collaborative working group. Active adaptive management has several advantages, but the inability to satisfy certain prerequisites for successful application makes it more difficult to implement in large river ecosystems. A second‐best approach is proposed here to select, implement, monitor, and evaluate a preferred management action and retain that action provided ecological conditions improve and socioeconomic indicators do not fall below established acceptability limits.