APPLICATION OF PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR CALIBRATING TANK MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Many automatic calibration processes have been proposed to efficiently calibrate the 16 parameters involved in the four‐layered tank model. The Multistart Powell and Stuffed Complex Evolution (SCE) methods are considered the best two procedures. Two rainfall events were designed to compare the performance and efficiency of these two methods. The first rainfall event is short term and the second designed for long term rainfall data collection. Both rainfall events include a lengthy no‐rainfall period. Two sets of upper and lower values for the search range were selected for the numerical tests. The results show that the Multistart Powell and SCE methods are able to obtain the true values for the 16 parameters with a sufficiently long no‐rainfall period after a rainfall event. In addition, by using two selected objective functions, one based on root mean square error and one based on root mean square relative error criteria, it is found that the no‐rainfall period lengths necessary to obtain the converged true values for the 16 parameters are roughly the same. The SCE method provides a more efficient search based on an appropriate preliminary search range. The Multistart Powell method, on the other hand, leads to more accurate search results when there is no suitable search range selected based on the parameter calibration experience.     

Benchmarking and environmental trend indicators

Companies are increasingly incorporating quantitative environmental data in their benchmarking activities as the search for ways to improve corporate environmental performance continues to expand. The Investor Responsibility Research Center supplies time series data to support several benchmarking activities. This article introduces two new trend indicators that may be used for certain environmental benchmarking applications.     

A HYBRID OPTIMIZATION APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTED PARAMETERS IN TWO-DIMENSIONAL CONFINED AQUIFERS1

ABSTRACT: In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is experimentally demonstrated that only one piece of prior information of the least sensitive parameter is sufficient to arrive at the global or near-global optimum solution. For hydraulic head data with measurement errors, the error in the estimation of parameters increases as the standard deviation of the errors increases. Results from our experiments show that, in general, the accuracy of the estimated parameters depends on the level of noise in the hydraulic head data and the initial values used in the truncated-Newton search technique.     

Sustainable consumption profile differences among Brazilian regions

Brazil is a vast country and there are several scientific studies reporting sustainable behavior in its different regions. Since methodologies used in these studies differ from one another, it is hard to compare them. This paper aims to identify whether differences in sustainable behavior occur in different Brazilian regions and what differences can be identified. Through a web survey, we analyzed data from 1,489 participants, from four different regions. We identified two factors (behavior and search for information), and analyzed the differences through multivariate analysis of variance. The Northeast region had a higher score for “search for information”, while Southern regions performed better on “behavior.” The Midwest region had the worst performance for both factors. The reasons for such differences may be greatly influenced by the social/cultural context of each region. The results also show that consumers still do not use their power of choice to pressure companies to become more sustainable.     

STATE VARIABLE MODEL FOR URBAN RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESS1

ABSTRACT: A nonlinear hydrologic system model has been developed for analyzing the urban rainfall-runoff process. The model is formulated as a state variable model consisting of several parameters. A search technique is employed to find the set of parameters for which the model's response best fits observed data. The model could be used in either a simulation or forecasting mode. The model is applied to observed data for the Waller Creek Watershed in Austin, Texas, to develop the model parameters for various levels of urbanization of the watershed. The trend of each parameter with respect to levels of urbanization is examined.     

环境监测中最优化抽样策略

本文分析了基本抽样程序,并用来解决环境监测的抽样优化问题。抽样过程形成马尔可夫链,通过划分接收水平和抽样区间建立抽样策略。计算每一组策略的目标函数的取值,找到备选策略中最小成本抽样策略即最优抽样策略。     

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density,Socio-economic Status,Group Identity,and Residential Canopy Cover

Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City’s property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont’s Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas’ Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM?) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.     

Assessment of manure phosphorus export through turfgrass sod production in Erath County, Texas

A best management practice (BMP) for exporting manure phosphorus (P) in turfgrass sod from the North Bosque River (NBR) watershed in central Texas was assessed using a geographic information system (GIS). The NBR watershed has a mandate to reduce the total annual P load to the NBR by 50% as a result of total maximum daily load regulation. Since dairy waste applications to fields are identified as the major nonpoint source of P to the river, innovative BMPs, such as export of manure P in turfgrass, will be needed to achieve the 50% reduction. However, methods are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these innovative management practices prior to their implementation. A geospatial database of suitable turfgrass production sites was developed for Erath County using GIS. Erath County largely encompasses the upper portion of the NBR watershed. Information from field experiments, production practices, and ground-truthing was used to search, analyze, and verify a geospatial database developed from national and regional sources. The integration and analyses of large databases supports the search by turf producers for sites suitable for turfgrass sod production in Erath County. In addition, GIS enables researchers and regulators to estimate manure P exports and reduced P loading due to implementation of the manure export BMP on a county scale. Under optimal conditions 198,000 kg manure P yr(-1) could be used and 114,840 kg manure P yr(-1) exported from the NBR watershed through implementation of a system using dairy manure to produce turfgrass sod. This is the equivalent of the manure P applied from 10,032 dairy cows yr(-1) and exported from 5808 dairy cows yr(-1). Application of GIS to large-scale planning and decision-making transcends traditional field-scale applications in precision agriculture.     

A NONLINEAR MODEL OF A WATER RESERVOIR SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE USES AND ITS OPTIMIZATION BY COMBINED USE OF DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING AND PATTERN SEARCH TECHNIQUES

A fairly realistic nonlinear model of a water reservoir system with multiple uses has been developed based on available data, and the optimum of the system based on the developed model has been determined by the combined use of dynamic programming and the pattern search techniques. Both the simplex search and the Hooke and Jeeves pattern search have been used. The approach in modeling and optimization can treat complex inequality constraints. The benefits or losses resulting from four purposes or uses of water, namely, urban water supply, hydroelectric power generation, irrigation, and recreation, are taken into account in the profit function. Other uses such as flood control, navigation, and fish and wildlife enhancement are considered indirectly by the use of inequality constraints. It appears that the approach developed in this work can treat a water resource allocation problem involving complex inequality constraints.     

Synergistic Techniques for Better Understanding and Classifying the Environmental Structure of Landscapes

The desire to capture natural regions in the landscape has been a goal of geographic and environmental classification and ecological land classification (ELC) for decades. Since the increased adoption of data-centric, multivariate, computational methods, the search for natural regions has become the search for the best classification that optimally trades off classification complexity for class homogeneity. In this study, three techniques are investigated for their ability to find the best classification of the physical environments of the Mt. Lofty Ranges in South Australia: AutoClass-C (a Bayesian classifier), a Kohonen Self-Organising Map neural network, and a k-means classifier with homogeneity analysis. AutoClass-C is specifically designed to find the classification that optimally trades off classification complexity for class homogeneity. However, AutoClass analysis was not found to be assumption-free because it was very sensitive to the user-specified level of relative error of input data. The AutoClass results suggest that there may be no way of finding the best classification without making critical assumptions as to the level of class heterogeneity acceptable in the classification when using continuous environmental data. Therefore, rather than relying on adjusting abstract parameters to arrive at a classification of suitable complexity, it is better to quantify and visualize the data structure and the relationship between classification complexity and class homogeneity. Individually and when integrated, the Self-Organizing Map and k-means classification with homogeneity analysis techniques also used in this study facilitate this and provide information upon which the decision of the scale of classification can be made. It is argued that instead of searching for the elusive classification of natural regions in the landscape, it is much better to understand and visualize the environmental structure of the landscape and to use this knowledge to select the best ELC at the required scale of analysis.     

胡杨资源信息管理系统的设计与实现

新疆塔里木河流域的胡杨资源在维持荒漠生态系统的协调稳定和保障绿洲生态安全等方面意义重大。运用GIS技术、多媒体技术、数据库管理技术的理论与方法,综合胡杨资源及其环境的遥感信息、文字信息及地图信息,建立集图象、图形、声音、文字为一体的计算机信息管理系统,为胡杨资源信息的存贮、查询、检索、更新、分析服务,同时,为胡杨资源合理利用及保护提供科学依据及决策支持。     

Multiobjective Assessment of Multipurpose Water Resources Projects for Developing Countries

Multiobjective assessments of water resource projects are useful for widening the range of impacts that are considered during the process of project planning and selection. Some of the principles and problems associated with multiobjective analyses are reviewed, as are several relatively simple information display techniques and approaches found applicable to conditions in many developing countries. These techniques can be used where data and technical expertise are limited, and where it is not possible to identify and quantify all economic, environmental or social objectives and their trade-offs during the search for the best compromise decision.     

AN OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUE ADAPTED TO USDAHL-74 REVISED MODEL OF WATERSHED HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. A direct search optimization routine has been added to USDAHL-74 Revised Model of Watershed Hydrology. It provides an objective method to determine values of selected parameters to give the optimum match between observed and computed hydrologic data. Examination of intermediate results also gives information on the sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameter being optimized.     

A SEDIMENT RESUSPENSION AND WATER QUALITY MODEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: The influence of sediment resuspension on the water quality of shallow lakes is well documented. However, a search of the literature reveals no deterministic mass-balance eutrophication models that explicitly include resuspension. We modified the Lake Okeechobee water quality model - which uses the Water Analysis Simulation Package (WASP) to simulate algal dynamics and phosphorus, nitrogen, and oxygen cycles - to include inorganic suspend. ed solids and algorithms that: (1) define changes in depth with changes in volume; (2) compute sediment resuspension based on bottom shear stress; (3) compute partition coefficients for ammonia and ortho-phosphorus to solids; and (4) relate light attenuation to solids concentrations. The model calibration and validation were successful with the exception of dissolved inorganic nitrogen species which did not correspond well to observed data in the validation phase. This could be attributed to an inaccurate formulation of algal nitrogen preference and/or the absence of nitrogen fixation in the model. The model correctly predicted that the lake is light-limited from resuspended solids, and algae are primarily nitrogen limited. The model simulation suggested that biological fluxes greatly exceed external loads of dissolved nutrients; and sediment-water interactions of organic nitrogen and phosphorus far exceed external loads. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that parameters affecting resuspension, settling, sediment nutrient and solids concentrations, mineralization, algal productivity, and algal stoichiometry are factors requiring further study to improve our understanding of the Lake Okeechobee ecosystem.     

THE CENTRAL ARIZONA WATER CONTROL STUDY: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATE PLANS USING CONCORDANCE ANALYSIS AND MULTI-DIMENSION SCALING1

ABSTRACT The Central Arizona Water Control Study (CAWCS) was initiated by the Bureau of Reclamation in 1978. The study attempted to identify and evaluate alternate water management schemes for Central Arizona. By 1981 a set of seven plans had been developed and for each an assessment on a number of economic, environmental, and social factors had been undertaken. This paper offers a formal procedure, using concordance analysis and multi-dimension scaling, to compare alternate plans using multiple factors in order to produce a classification of the attractiveness of the alternatives. Empirical data for the CAWCS are used to clarify the procedure. The results of the formal analysis are compared to those produced by the CAWCS. A critique of the formal procedure is offered, and it is suggested that it may have utility to assist in the collection of data as well as in the search for a best plan. The procedure allows a number of different types of sensitivity tests to be conducted.     

NATIONWIDE ASSESSMENT OF URBAN RUNOFF IMPACT ON RECEIVING WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Urban stormwater runoff has been recognized as a potential major contributor of pollution to receiving waters. However the projected high costs of control have prompted an examination of the extent to which these impacts have been documented. A nationwide search was conducted for case studies demonstrating a cause-effect linkage between urban runoff and impairment of beneficial uses in receiving waters. The results indicate that numerous definitions of “impacts” are being used and that few substantive data exist to support many of these allegations. Results of a preliminary impact assessment are presented for the 248 urbanized areas of the United States. Then, the results of more recent efforts to assess these impacts in several case studies are described. This assessment demonstrates the critical need for additional short-term and long-term sampling programs.     

SEPTAGE QUALITY AND ITS EFFECT ON FIELD LIFE FOR LAND APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Maintenance of the more than 24 million septic tanks in the U.S. requires removal and disposal of septage. Disposal options include application to agricultural lands where the nutrients and organic matter can provide soil benefits. However, pathogens and contaminants are also contained in septage. An extensive search turned up very few data on septage quality, and those reveal high variability. The data used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in developing regulations had the lowest metal concentrations among the nine data sets that could be compared. Based on these data, EPA assumed that septage could be applied to agricultural land for more than 100 applications before reaching unacceptable cumulative loading of metals. They thus did not establish federal standards for metals in septage, and no monitoring is required under federal rules governing septage disposal. Analysis of the nine data sets we found showed that field site life would be reached in less than 100 applications for most septage and cumulative loading limits established by EPA for sewage sludges will be exceeded in 16 applications for some septage as opposed to the 100 application estimate used by EPA. Determination of acceptable cumulative loading depends on numerous technical and policy considerations. All septage sources reached the more restrictive loading limits such as those established by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) and the recommendations in Cornell publications in less than 100 applications. In one case the cumulative limit for copper was exceeded in a single application. These findings suggest additional data are needed on septage quality and that the federal and state agencies responsible for regulating application of septage to agricultural land should reassess their standards.