Will climate change overwhelm fire management capacity?

Using anomalies calculated from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate predictions we developed scenarios of future fire weather, fuel moisture and fire occurrence and used these as the inputs to a fire growth and suppression simulation model for the province of Ontario, Canada. The goal of this study was to combine GCM predictions with the fire growth and suppression model to examine potential changes in area burned in Ontario due to climate change, while accounting for the large fire suppression activities of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). Results indicate a doubling of area burned in the Intensive and Measured fire management zones of Ontario by the decade of 2040 and an eightfold increase in area burned by the end of the 21st century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 scenario; smaller increases were found for the A1b and B1 scenarios. These changes are driven by increased fire weather conducive to large fire growth, and increases in the number of fires escaping initial attack: for the Canadian GCM's business-as-usual (A2) scenario, escaped fire frequency increased by 34% by 2040 and 92% by the end of the 21st century. Incorporating more detail on large fire growth than previous studies, our model predicts higher area burned under climate change than do these previous studies, as large numbers of high-intensity fires overwhelm suppression capacity.     

Carbon sequestration in soils of SW-Germany as affected by agricultural management—Calibration of the EPIC model for regional simulations

Global emissions trading allows for agricultural measures to be accounted for the carbon sequestration in soils. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was tested for central European site conditions by means of agricultural extensification scenarios. Results of soil and management analyses of different management systems (cultivation with mouldboard plough, reduced tillage, and grassland/fallow establishment) on 13 representative sites in the German State Baden-Württemberg were used to calibrate the EPIC model. Calibration results were compared to those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prognosis tool. The first calibration step included adjustments in (a) N depositions, (b) N₂-fixation by bacteria during fallow, and (c) nutrient content of organic fertilisers according to regional values. The mixing efficiency of implements used for reduced tillage and four crop parameters were adapted to site conditions as a second step of the iterative calibration process, which should optimise the agreement between measured and simulated humus changes. Thus, general rules were obtained for the calibration of EPIC for different criteria and regions. EPIC simulated an average increase of +0.341 Mg humus-C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ for on average 11.3 years of reduced tillage compared to land cultivated with mouldboard plough during the same time scale. Field measurements revealed an average increase of +0.343 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ and the IPCC prognosis tool +0.345 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. EPIC simulated an average increase of +1.253 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ for on average 10.6 years of grassland/fallow establishment compared to an average increase of +1.342 Mg humus-C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ measured by field measurements and +1.254 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ according to the IPCC prognosis tool. The comparison of simulated and measured humus C stocks was r² ≥ 0.825 for all treatments. However, on some sites deviations between simulated and measured results were considerable. The result for the simulation of yields was similar. In 49% of the cases the simulated yields differed from the surveyed ones by more than 20%. Some explanations could be found by qualitative cause analyses. Yet, for quantitative analyses the available information from farmers was not sufficient. Altogether EPIC is able to represent the expected changes by reduced tillage or grassland/fallow establishment acceptably under central European site conditions of south-western Germany.     

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas

Global warming impacts the water cycle not only by changing regional precipitation levels and temporal variability, but also by affecting water flows and soil moisture dynamics. In Brandenburg, increasing average annual temperature and decreasing precipitation in summer have already been observed. For this study, past trends and future effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg were investigated, considering regional and specific spatial impacts. Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) were focused on in particular. A decreasing trend in soil water content was shown for the past by analyzing simulation results from 1951 to 2003 using the integrated ecohydrological model SWIM [Krysanova, V., Müller-Wohlfeil, D.-I., Becker, A., 1998. Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecol. Model. 106, 261–289]. The trend was statistically significant for some areas, but not for the entire region. Simulated soil water content was particularly low in the extremely dry year 2003. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil moisture dynamics with trends in the average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index for the region showed largely congruent patterns, though the modeled soil moisture trends are characterized by a much higher spatial resolution. Regionally downscaled climate change projections representing the range between wetter and drier realizations were used to evaluate future trends of available soil water. A further decrease of average available soil water ranging from −4% to −15% was projected for all climate realizations up to the middle of the 21st century. An average decrease of more than 25 mm was simulated for 34% of the total area in the dry realization. Available soil water contents in SACs were generally higher and trends in soil moisture dynamics were lower mainly due to their favorable edaphic conditions. Stronger absolute and relative changes in the simulated trends for the past and future were shown for SACs within Brandenburg than for the state as a whole, indicating a high level of risk for many wetland areas. Nonetheless, soil water content in SACs is expected to remain higher than average under climate change conditions as well, and SACs therefore have an important buffer function under the projected climate change. They are thus essential for local climate and water regulation and their status as protected areas in Brandenburg should be preserved.     

Assessing the carbon balance of circumpolar Arctic tundra using remote sensing and process modeling.

This paper reviews the current status of using remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches to assess the contemporary and future circumpolar carbon balance of Arctic tundra, including the exchange of both carbon dioxide and methane with the atmosphere. Analyses based on remote sensing approaches that use a 20-year data record of satellite data indicate that tundra is greening in the Arctic, suggesting an increase in photosynthetic activity and net primary production. Modeling studies generally simulate a small net carbon sink for the distribution of Arctic tundra, a result that is within the uncertainty range of field-based estimates of net carbon exchange. Applications of process-based approaches for scenarios of future climate change generally indicate net carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra as enhanced vegetation production exceeds simulated increases in decomposition. However, methane emissions are likely to increase dramatically, in response to rising soil temperatures, over the next century. Key uncertainties in the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change include uncertainties in future fire regimes and uncertainties relating to changes in the soil environment. These include the response of soil decomposition and respiration to warming and deepening of the soil active layer, uncertainties in precipitation and potential soil drying, and distribution of wetlands. While there are numerous uncertainties in the projections of process-based models, they generally indicate that Arctic tundra will be a small sink for carbon over the next century and that methane emissions will increase considerably, which implies that exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and Arctic tundra ecosystems is likely to contribute to climate warming.     

Mapping eucalypt forest susceptible to dieback associated with bell miners (Manorina melanophys) using laser scanning, SPOT 5 and ancillary topographical data

Mapping the location and extent of forest at risk from damaging agents or processes assists forest managers in prioritizing their planning and operational mitigation activities. In Australia, Bell Miner Associated Dieback (BMAD) refers to a form of canopy decline observed in eucalypt crowns occupied by colonies of bell miners (Manorina melanophrys). High densities of bell miners are associated with decreased avian abundance and diversity and an increase in psyllid abundance on crown foliage. BMAD has recently been nominated as a key threatening process in New South Wales (NSW). Consequently, a modelling system for predicting bell miner distribution in coastal eucalypt forests of NSW has been developed. The presence or absence of bell miners was recorded in 130 plots located within a 12,800 ha catchment study area containing a range of eucalypt forest types. The modelling system was produced by integrating a machine learning software suite (WEKA), and the statistical software R within the geographic resources analysis support system (GRASS) geographical information system (GIS). The variable modelled was the binary variable: presence or absence of bell minors. Six modelling techniques (Logistic regression; generalised additive models; two tree-based ensemble classification algorithms, random forest and Adaboost and Neural Networks) were integrated with airborne laser scanning; SPOT 5 and topographic derived variables. Model evaluation and parameter selection were measured by three threshold dependent measures (sensitivity, specificity and kappa) and the threshold independent Receiver Operator Curve (ROC) analysis. The final presence and absence maps were obtained through maximisation of the kappa statistic and applied at a resolution of 10 m across the entire catchment study area. For this data set, the most accurate algorithm for predicting the distribution of bell miner colonies was random forest (kappa = 0.84; ROC area under curve = 0.97). Variables most commonly selected in the six models were the laser scanning metrics; coefficient of variation, skewness, and the 10th and 90th percentiles derived from the shape of the height frequency distribution which, in turn, is directly influenced by vertical structure of the forest. An image textural statistic based on the shortwave infrared (SWIR) band of SPOT 5 was also commonly selected by the models. The SWIR band is sensitive to vegetation and soil moisture content. These models predicted that forest stands with a sparse eucalypt canopy over a moist, dense understorey were susceptible to being colonised by bell miners and hence BMAD.     

Estimating soil carbon turnover using radiocarbon data: A case-study for European Russia

Turnover rates of soil carbon for 20 soil types typical for a 3.7 million km² area of European Russia were estimated based on ¹⁴C data. The rates are corrected for bomb radiocarbon which strongly affects the topsoil ¹⁴C balance. The approach is applied for carbon stored in the organic and mineral layers of the upper 1 m of the soil profile. The turnover rates of carbon in the upper 20 cm are relatively high for forest soils (0.16–0.78% year⁻¹), intermediate for tundra soils (0.25% year⁻¹), and low for grassland soils (0.02–0.08% year⁻¹) with the exception of southern Chernozems (0.32% year⁻¹). In the soil layer of 20–100 cm depth, the turnover rates were much lower for all soil types (0.01–0.06% year⁻¹) except for peat bog soils of the southern taiga (0.14% year⁻¹). Combined with a map of soil type distribution and a dataset of several hundred soil carbon profiles, the method provides annual fluxes for the slowest components of soil carbon assuming that the latter is in equilibrium with climate and vegetation cover. The estimated carbon flux from the soil is highest for forest soils (12–147 gC/(m² year)), intermediate for tundra soils (33 gC/(m² year)), and lowest for grassland soils (1–26 gC/(m² year)). The approach does not distinguish active and recalcitrant carbon fractions and this explains the low turnover rates in the top layer. Since changes in soil types will follow changes in climate and land cover, we suggest that pedogenesis is an important factor influencing the future dynamics of soil carbon fluxes. Up to now, both the effect of soil type changes and the clear evidence from ¹⁴C measurements that most soil organic carbon has a millennial time scale, are basically neglected in the global carbon cycle models used for projections of atmospheric CO₂ in 21st century and beyond.     

The race is not to the swift: long-term data reveal pervasive declines in California's low-elevation butterfly fauna

Understanding the ecology of extinction is one of the primary challenges facing ecologists in the 21st century. Much of our current understanding of extinction, particularly for invertebrates, comes from studies with large geographic coverage but less temporal resolution, such as comparisons between historical collection records and contemporary surveys for geographic regions or political entities. We present a complementary approach involving a data set that is geographically restricted but temporally intensive: we focus on three sites in the Central Valley of California, and utilize 35 years of biweekly (every two weeks) surveys at our most long-sampled site. Previous analyses of these data revealed declines in richness over recent decades. Here, we take a more detailed approach to investigate the mode of decline for this fauna. We ask if all species are in decline, or only a subset. We also investigate traits commonly found to be predictors of extinction risk in other studies, such as body size, diet breadth, habitat association, and geographic range. We find that population declines are ubiquitous: the majority of species at our three focal sites (but not at a nearby site at higher elevation) are characterized by reductions in the fraction of days that they are observed per year. These declines are not readily predicted by ecological traits, with the possible exception of ruderal/non-ruderal status. Ruderal species, in slightly less precipitous decline than non-ruderal taxa, are more dispersive and more likely to be associated with disturbed habitats and exotic hosts. We conclude that population declines and extirpation, particularly in regions severely and recently impacted by anthropogenic alteration, might not be as predictable as has been suggested by other studies on the ecology of extinction.     

粤北山区近25年来耕地表层土壤有机碳变化分析

以粤北山区典型区的连州市为例,利用第二次土壤普查资料和2007年耕地地力调查样点分析结果,对研究区耕地表层(0~20 cm)土壤有机碳质量分数和有机碳密度的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:25年以来,连州市耕地表层有机碳质量分数和密度有所增加,分别从1982年的16.3 g·kg-1、40.88 t·hm-2上升到2007年的17.37 g·kg-1、43.31 t·hm-2。土壤有机碳随土壤类型的不同而变化复杂,土壤有机碳呈上升趋势的有潴育型水稻土、淹育型水稻土、渗育型水稻土,而沼泽型水稻土、潜育型水稻土和矿毒田呈下降趋势,主要旱地土壤类型(黄壤、红壤、红色石灰土、酸性紫色土)表层土壤有机碳质量分数呈上升趋势。从土地利用类型综合考量,水田、旱地表层土壤有机碳质量分数和密度都呈上升趋势,其中水田的有机碳质量分数和密度分别由80年代初期的18.30 g·kg-1、44.80 t·hm-2上升到2007年的18.78 g·kg-1、46.21 t·hm-2;旱地的有机碳质量分数和密度分别由80年代初期的10.46 g·kg-1、29.27 t·hm-2上升到2007年的13.17 g·kg-1、34.67 t·hm...     

Multi-season climate synchronized forest fires throughout the 20th century, northern Rockies, U.S.A

We inferred climate drivers of 20th-century years with regionally synchronous forest fires in the U.S. northern Rockies. We derived annual fire extent from an existing fire atlas that includes 5038 fire polygons recorded from 12,070,086 ha, or 71% of the forested land in Idaho and Montana west of the Continental Divide. The 11 regional-fire years, those exceeding the 90th percentile in annual fire extent from 1900 to 2003 (>102,314 ha or approximately 1% of the fire atlas recording area), were concentrated early and late in the century (six from 1900 to 1934 and five from 1988 to 2003). During both periods, regional-fire years were ones when warm springs were followed by warm, dry summers and also when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was positive. Spring snowpack was likely reduced during warm springs and when PDO was positive, resulting in longer fire seasons. Regional-fire years did not vary with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or with climate in antecedent years. The long mid-20th century period lacking regional-fire years (1935-1987) had generally cool springs, generally negative PDO, and a lack of extremely dry summers; also, this was a period of active fire suppression. The climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire that we inferred are congruent with those of previous centuries in this region, suggesting a strong influence of spring and summer climate on fire activity throughout the 20th century despite major land-use change and fire suppression efforts. The relatively cool, moist climate during the mid-century gap in regional-fire years likely contributed to the success of fire suppression during that period. In every regional-fire year, fires burned across a range of vegetation types. Given our results and the projections for warmer springs and continued warm, dry summers, forests of the U.S. northern Rockies are likely to experience synchronous, large fires in the future.     

Predicting future effects from nutrient abatement and climate change on phosphorus concentrations in Lake Bourget, France

Like many temperate European lakes, Lake Bourget (France) has suffered from eutrophication during the second half of the last century. Due to a remarkable restoration program, the lake has been recovering for the past 25 years after a massive decrease in total phosphorus (TP) loading. TP concentrations have decreased from about 100-120 to 20-25 μg/L. Additional efforts are, however, still required to obtain a perennially sustainable good ecological status and model parameterisation of fluxes can assist in predicting future outcomes, especially in the context of global warming. In this paper, a dynamic model (MeroLakeMab) was developed and tested with the purpose to reconstruct the loading history of Lake Bourget and to predict TP concentrations during scenarios of increased temperature, decreased water runoff and decreased P loading. Simulations suggested that the historical TP loading decrease may have been as extensive as 88%. Decreases in water discharge to Lake Bourget at magnitudes forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would not affect TP concentrations notably, but marked concentration changes could, however, occur if decreases in runoff would have a strong impact on the TP loading. Increasing temperature effects on yearly mean TP concentrations in the water column would be very small compared to effects from changes in the TP loading. Predictions such as these could be instrumental for future successful lake management.     

The importance of spatial autocorrelation,extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence

Concerns about declines in forest biodiversity underscore the need for accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales and at resolutions that are fine enough to be appropriate for management. This paper addresses three major objectives: (i) to determine whether the resolution of typical air photo-derived forest inventory is sufficient for the accurate prediction of site occupancy by forest birds. We compared prediction success of habitat models using air photo variables to models with variables derived from finer resolution, ground-sampled vegetation plots. (ii) To test whether incorporating spatial autocorrelation into habitat models via autologistic regression increases prediction success. (iii) To determine whether landscape structure is an important factor in predicting bird distribution in forest-dominated landscapes. Models were tested locally (Greater Fundy Ecosystem [GFE]) using cross-validation, and regionally using an independent data set from an area located ca. 250 km to the northwest (Riley Brook [RB]). We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of at least one habitat model for 76% (16/21) of species examined. In these cases, the logistic regression assumption of spatially independent errors was violated. Logistic models that ignored spatial autocorrelation tended to overestimate habitat effects. Though overall prediction success was higher for autologistic models than logistic models in the GFE, the difference was only significantly improved for one species. Further, the inclusion of spatial covariates did little to improve model performance in the geographically discrete study area. For 62% (13/21) of species examined, landscape variables were significant predictors of forest bird occurrence even after statistically controlling for stand-level variability. However, broad spatial extents explained less variation than local factors. In the GFE, 76% (16/21) of air photo and 81% (17/21) of ground plot models were accurate enough to be of practical utility (AUC > 0.7). When applied to RB, both model types performed effectively for 55% (11/20) of the species examined. We did not detect an overall difference in prediction success between air photo and ground plot models in either study area. We conclude that air photo data are as effective as fine resolution vegetation data for predicting site occupancy for the majority of species in this study. These models will be of use to forest managers who are interested in mapping species distributions under various timber harvest scenarios, and to protected areas planners attempting to optimize reserve function.     

Climatic/edaphic controls on soil carbon/nitrogen response to shrub encroachment in desert grassland.

The proliferation of woody plants in grasslands over the past 100+ years can alter carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles and influence land surface-atmosphere interactions. Although the majority of organic carbon in these ecosystems resides belowground, there is no consensus on how this change in land cover has affected soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) pools. The degree to which duration of woody plant occupation, climate, and edaphic conditions have mediated SOC and TN responses to changes in life-form composition are poorly understood. We addressed these issues at a desert grassland site in Arizona, USA, where the leguminous shrub velvet mesquite (Prosopis velutina) has proliferated along an elevation/precipitation/temperature gradient and on contrasting soil morphologic surfaces. On sandy loam complexes of mid-Holocene origin, mean SOC and TN of soils in the grassland matrix increased approximately 68% and approximately 45%, respectively, with increasing elevation. Soil organic carbon pools were comparable and TN pools were approximately 23% higher in Pleistocene-aged clay loam complexes co-occurring with Holocene-aged soils at the upper elevation/climatic zone. Across the site, belowground resources associated with large Prosopis plants were 21-154% (SOC) and 18-127% (TN) higher than those in the grassy matrix. The variance in SOC and TN pools accounted for by Prosopis stem size (a rough surrogate for time of site occupation) was highest at the low- and mid-elevation sites (69-74%) and lowest at the upper elevation site (32-38%). Soil delta15N values ranged from 5.5 per thousand to 6.7 per thousand across the soil/elevation zones but were comparable in herbaceous and shrub-impacted soils and exhibited a weak relationship with Prosopis basal stem diameter (r2 < 0.1) and TN (r2 < 0.08). The SOC delta13C values decreased linearly with increasing Prosopis basal diameter, suggesting that size and isotopic composition of the SOC pool is a function of time of Prosopis site occupation. Isotopic mixture models indicate that encroachment of C3 woody plants has also promoted SOC additions from C4 plant sources, indicative of long-term herbaceous facilitation. Grassy sites in contrasting soil/elevation combinations, initially highly distinctive in their SOC pool size and delta13C, appear to be converging on similar values following approximately 100 years of woody plant proliferation.     

Modelling soil carbon development in Swedish coniferous forest soils—An uncertainty analysis of parameters and model estimates using the GLUE method

Boreal forest soils such as those in Sweden contain a large active carbon stock. Hence, a relatively small change in this stock can have a major impact on the Swedish national CO₂ balance. Understanding of the uncertainties in the estimations of soil carbon pools is critical for accurately assessing changes in carbon stocks in the national reports to UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Our objective was to analyse the parameter uncertainties of simulated estimates of the soil organic carbon (SOC) development between 1994 and 2002 in Swedish coniferous forests with the Q model. Both the sensitivity of model parameters and the uncertainties in simulations were assessed. Data of forests with Norway spruce, Scots pine and Lodgepole pine, from the Swedish Forest Soil Inventory (SFSI) were used. Data of 12 Swedish counties were used to calibrate parameter settings; and data from another 11 counties to validate. The “limits of acceptability” within GLUE were set at the 95% confidence interval for the annual, mean measured SOC at county scale. The calibration procedure reduced the parameter uncertainties and reshaped the distributions of the parameters county-specific. The average measured and simulated SOC amounts varied from 60 t C ha⁻¹ in northern to 140 t C ha⁻¹ in the southern Sweden. The calibrated model simulated the soil carbon pool within the limits of acceptability for all calibration counties except for one county during one year. The efficiency of the calibrated model varied strongly; for five out of 12 counties the model estimates agreed well with measurements, for two counties agreement was moderate and for five counties the agreement was poor. The lack of agreement can be explained with the high inter-annual variability of the down-scaled measured SOC estimates and changes in forest areas over time. We conclude that, although we succeed in reducing the uncertainty in the model estimates, calibrating of a regional scale process-oriented model using a national scale dataset is a sensitive balance between introducing and reducing uncertainties. Parameter distributions showed to be scale sensitive and county specific. Further analysis of uncertainties in the methods used for reporting SOC changes to the UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol is recommended.     

Estimation of annual potential evapotranspiration at regional scale based on the effect of moisture on soil respiration

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important component of water cycle. For traditional models derived from the principle of aerodynamics and the surface energy balance, its calculation always includes many parameters, such as net radiation, water vapor pressure, air temperature and wind speed. We found that it can be acquired in an easier way in specific regions. In this study, a new PET model (PETP model) derived from two empirical models of soil respiration was evaluated using the Penman-Monteith equation as a standard method. The results indicate that the PETP model estimation concur with the Penman-Monteith equation in sites where annual precipitation ranges from 717.71 mm to 1727.37 mm (R² = 0.68, p = 0.0002), but show large discrepancies in all sites (R² = 0.07, p = 0.1280). Then we applied our PETP model at the global scale to the regions with precipitation higher than 700 mm using 2.5° CMAP data to obtain the annual PET for 2006. As expected, the spatial pattern is satisfactory overall, with the highest PET values distributed in the lower latitudes or coastal regions, and with an average of 1292.60 ± 540.15 mm year⁻¹. This PETP model provides a convenient approach to estimate PET at regional scales.     

多时间尺度上研究中国近代气温变化规律

应用MODIS数据反演了过去10年中国气温及气温的空间分布特征,并基于气象数据重建了过去60年中国城市、郊区、农村及气象台周边地区冬季气温距平的时间序列,从多时间尺度上,详细分析了20世纪中国气温变化规律。结果发现：气象台气温记录可能受城市热岛效应影响;60年来我国气温呈震荡波动,波动小周期约为7a;从10年尺度上看,近60年来,年代际气温增加幅度最大的是20世纪90年代,21世纪初气温虽然仍处于暖期,但已经出现下降趋势。     

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.     

Effects of Climate Change,Invasive Species,and Disease on the Distribution of Native European Crayfishes

Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal‐limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate‐suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate‐suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague‐transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization. Efectos del Cambio Climático, Especies Invasoras y Enfermedades sobre la Distribución de Cangrejos de Río Europeos Nativos     

Risk assessment in the face of a changing environment: gypsy moth and climate change in Utah.

The importance of efficaciously assessing the risk for introduction and establishment of pest species is an increasingly important ecological and economic issue. Evaluation of climate is fundamental to determining the potential success of an introduced or invasive insect pest. However, evaluating climatic suitability poses substantial difficulties; climate can be measured and assessed in a bewildering array of ways. Some physiological filter, in essence a lens that focuses climate through the requirements and constraints of a potential pest introduction, is required. Difficulties in assessing climate suitability are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change. Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is an exotic, tree-defoliating insect that is frequently introduced into the western United States. In spite of an abundance of potential host species, these introductions have yet to result in established populations. The success of eradication efforts and the unsuccessful establishment of many detected and undetected introductions may be related to an inhospitable climate. Climatic suitability for gypsy moth in the western United States, however, is potentially improving, perhaps rapidly, due to a general warming trend that began in the mid 1970s and continues today. In this work, we describe the application of a physiologically based climate suitability model for evaluating risk of gypsy moth establishment on a landscape level. Development of this risk assessment system first required amassing databases that integrated the gypsy moth climatic assessment model, with host species distributions, and climate (historical, present, and future). This integrated system was then used to evaluate climate change scenarios for native host species in Utah, with the result that risk of establishment will dramatically increase during the remainder of the 21st century under reasonable climate change scenarios. We then applied the risk assessment system to several case histories of detected gypsy moth introductions in Utah. These applications demonstrated the general utility of the system for predicting risk of establishment and for designing improved risk detection strategies.     

Effects of different mowing frequencies on soil carbon and nitrogen changes in leymus chinensis steppe of Hulun Buir北大核心CSCD

Mowing is the main management of Hulun Buir grasslands in Inner Mongolia; therefore, understanding the changes of soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), and carbon sequestration under different mowing frequencies will provide an important scientific basis for grassland carbon sink management in Inner Mongolia. Three treatment plots were devised in the study area, including enclosed sample (Y), mowing every other year (2G), and mowing once a year (1G), where SOC, TN content and storage were investigated. The results showed that with increased mowing frequency, the SOC and TN content showed a decreasing trend in the 0-30 cm depth soil layer. The SOC and TN content were different in each soil layer, which decreased gradually with increasing soil depth in Y and 2G plots, whereas increased gradually in 1G plots. The soil carbon storage was significantly correlated with the soil nitrogen storage, and both showed a significant linear decrease with increased mowing frequency, which showed as carbon and nitrogen loss. In 2G plots, the soil carbon storage decreased by 17.1% and soil nitrogen storage decreased by 20.8%. In 1G plots, the soil carbon storage decreased by 21.6% and soil nitrogen storage decreased by 29.3%. The results showed that the change of soil carbon and nitrogen was sensitive to mowing frequency for the Hulun Buir grassland. It is possible to reduce the loss of carbon and nitrogen by reasonably controlling mowing frequency, and the sustainable use of grassland could be achieved with appropriate fertilization. Keywords. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.