自然灾害综合研究的回顾与展望

回顾了20世纪90年代以来,我国在自然灾害综合研究方面所做的工作和取得的成果以及所获得的新认识,包括将研究由单类推向综合。提出自然灾害系统和灾害科学体系的新观念,探索自然灾害综合预报,加强灾害社会属性的研究;提出分区减灾、分级减灾的对策,倡导开展减灾系统工程,将减灾纳入可持续发展系列建立减灾管理系统,推动减灾社会化与产业化等。对21世纪自然灾害综合研究进行了展望,认为其基本指导思想应为从自然灾害系统研究扩展为环境-灾害系统研究。同时提出了减灾能力评估、综合区划、灾后重建统筹规划等所面临的重大问题。     

Disaster journalism: fostering citizen and community disaster mitigation,preparedness, response,recovery, and resilience across the disaster cycle

Natural and human‐caused disasters pose a significant risk to the health and well‐being of people. Journalists and news organisations can fulfil multiple roles related to disasters, ranging from providing warnings, assessing disaster mitigation and preparedness, and reporting on what occurs, to aiding long‐term recovery and fostering disaster resilience. This paper considers these possible functions of disaster journalism and draws on semi‐structured interviews with 24 journalists in the United States to understand better their approach to the discipline. A thematic analysis was employed, which resulted in the identification of five main themes and accompanying subthemes: (i) examining disaster mitigation and preparedness; (ii) facilitating recovery; (iii) self‐care and care of journalists; (iv) continued spread of social media; and (v) disaster journalism ethics. The paper concludes that disaster journalism done poorly can result in harm, but done well, it can be an essential instrument with respect to public disaster planning, management, response, and recovery.     

首都大学生的自然灾害认知调查与减灾教育建议

2006年国际减灾日的主题是"减灾始于学校",了解学生的灾害认知水平有助于减灾教育工作的有效开展。以北京5所高校的大学生为调查对象,通过问卷方式调查大学生对自然灾害的关注程度、防灾意识、灾害理论知识、应急行为知识以及对减灾教育的看法。问卷统计结果表明:大学生总体的灾害认知水平较低,现行减灾教育方式和内容与学生的期望有较大偏差。在此基础上,提出了减灾教育内容要将学生"该知道的"与"想知道的"相结合,通过演练演习等方式提高学生的防灾应急实际技能等减灾教育建议。     

防灾减灾的基础研究及应用研究进展概况

人类社会是在对自然灾害的不断斗争中得到发展。近代由于全球人口的迅速增长和城市化程度的提高，自然灾害的损失也在急剧增加。防灾减灾是减轻灾害损失、保障社会可持续发展的系统工程。当前灾害监测技术、灾害的形成和发展规律、灾情评估方法、灾害管理及灾害对社会经济的影响等方面的基础研究及应用研究已有了不小的进展。本文概括地介绍了这些进展，并指出了防灾减灾工作中存在的一些问题及对策     

基于链式理论的单灾种向多灾种演绎

从灾变链角度出发,以灾变链式理论的八种链式形态为依托,基于耗散结构理论,指出自然灾害系统链式响应行为是外部环境复杂输入和自身内部结构关系变化两方面共同作用的结果；构建系统的单灾种模型,并推演出多灾种模型,反映各灾种之间的耦合关系和相互影响,探讨单灾种向多灾种的演化机理.研究表明各灾变链致灾因子所具有的能量是灾变链式阶段的关键,在此基础上提出防灾减灾策略,为单灾种和多灾种灾害的防治提供参考依据.     

Why the poor pay with their lives: oil pipeline vandalisation, fires and human security in Nigeria

Since its discovery in Nigeria in 1956 crude oil has been a source of mixed blessing to the country. It is believed to have generated enormous wealth, but it has also claimed a great many lives. Scholarly attention on the impact of oil on security in Nigeria has largely focused on internal conflicts rather than on how disasters associated with oil pipeline vandalisation have impacted on human security in terms of causing bodily injuries and death, destroying livelihoods and fracturing families. This paper examines how pipeline vandalisation affects human security in these ways. It identifies women and children as those who are hardest hit and questions why the poor are the most vulnerable in oil pipeline disasters in this country. It recommends the adoption of a comprehensive and integrated framework of disaster management that will ensure prompt response to key early warning signs, risk-reduction and appropriate mitigation and management strategies.     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统风险特征分析及其综合风险管理

长期以来,海洋灾害一直是困扰着海域及海岸带社会经济发展的一大障碍.中国是深受海洋灾害影响的国家之一.为此,从灾害系统论的角度,分析了1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统的风险特征.研究表明,中国在过去的15年中,工程性防灾减灾措施已经使海洋灾害灾情得到了一定的控制,但由于中国海域海事活动不断增多、海岸带经济密度快速提高,大大增加了海域及海岸带承灾体对海洋灾害风险的暴露,又由于海岸带及近海海域污染加重,海洋生物灾害发生的可能性增大,使中国海域面临的灾害风险趋于上升.此外,还讨论了中国海洋灾害综合风险管理的体系,提出从海洋灾害系统角度,加强海洋灾害综合风险管理能力的建设,以促进海洋及海岸带地区由政府、企业、社区共同组成的综合减灾范式的建立.     

Squatters' nightmare: the political economy of disasters and disaster response in zambia

Despite the frequency with which disasters occur, very few if any third world countries have developed elaborate disaster mitigation networks. Most commonly, governments in these countries focus their attention on disaster relief rather than disaster mitigation and preparedness. It is the contention of this paper that apart from the political and economic instability which will result from government apathy, lack of sensitivity to the question of disasters and disaster preparedness will result in untold suffering for the millions of our people who live on the urban margins and who are the most exposed to the dangers of disasters. This paper is about disasters and disaster response in Zambia.     

Injury prevention in natural disasters. A theoretical framework

A theoretical framework for conceptualizing injury patterns in natural disasters is described. In this conceptual framework, natural disasters are divided chronologically into predisaster, disaster and postdisaster phases. Within each phase, four factors (human, engineering/technological, physical environmental and socioeconomic) are identified that play an important role in the causation of injury. By combining these phases and factors into a three by four matrix, one may begin to identify points in the natural history or evolution of a disaster that may be amenable to therapeutic or preventive intervention. The application of this proposed three-phase matrix model to a disaster will permit researchers to reduce a large, complex problem into more manageable, conceptually simpler parts. It may also be of value to disaster planners by suggesting preventive and mitigation measures, as well as aiding in the setting of priorities so that scarce resources can be allocated to achieve maximum reduction of injuries.     

SWDC数字航空摄影仪在特大地震灾害中的应用

我国是一个自然灾害频发的国家,汶川大地震产生的巨大破坏将国家减灾救灾的战略需求提到了更高的地位.利用国产SWDC数字航空摄影仪等航空遥感平台,在灾前预警、灾中应急和灾后重建等不同阶段获取及时、准确、有效的灾害数据,是减灾救灾的重要组成内容.阐述了SWDC在灾中应急与灾后详评估中采用的技术方案,并于2008年5月16日、18日、21日三次获取了北川、平武、安县和青川等县市的航空遥感影像,制作了北川县地质灾害分布图、灾区公路损毁分布图等图件.在此基础上,对SWDC的数据快速获取能力和高精度的灾害详评估进行了着重论述.最后,分析了灾害应急航空遥感数据处理的现状,对各种处理手段进行了对比分析,并对航空遥感的未来发展进行了展望.     

浅析灾害间接经济损失评估的重要性

灾害损失评估是灾害风险管理、科学防灾减灾规划的基础。除了直接经济损失外,间接经济损失是反映灾害影响强度及社会经济系统脆弱性的重要指标。经济越发达,经济系统关联程度越高,经济系统的脆弱性就越大,灾害间接经济影响也越大。已有研究表明,灾害间接经济损失往往与直接经济损失为同一量级,甚至是直接经济损失的数倍。间接经济损失评估是科学评价灾害影响不可或缺的组成部分,其中,产业部门间接经济损失和灾后恢复重建期的评估,可以为灾后恢复重建决策和防灾减灾规划提供有效的决策工具。政府决策者、学术界应重视灾害,特别是重大灾害(或巨灾)对地区经济长期可持续发展可能造成的影响,从而为减轻灾害的影响做好充分准备。     

2020年全国公众防震减灾素养水平及主要特点研究

2020年中国地震局开展了全国公众防震减灾知识普及和科普满意度抽样调查,结果显示,17.1%的受访者具备防震减灾素养,与2018年中国公民科学素质调查结果相比较,公众防震减灾素养水平的区域分布有明显不一样的规律,公众防震减灾素养水平与区域经济发展水平之间没有明显的相关性,区域地震灾害程度和个人地震经历对公众防震减灾素养水平有显著的影响。防震减灾素养水平在城乡、性别、受教育水平等不同群体中的差别,和中国公民科学素质调查结果基本一致,受教育水平对防震减灾素养水平影响最大。在不同年龄群体中的差别则和中国公民科学素质调查结果不同,显示出独特的规律。在防震减灾科普工作中,需要重视公众防震减灾素养水平的这些特点,采取有针对性的措施来提升科普效率。     

‘Here,I'm not at ease’: anthropological perspectives on community resilience

A number of recent studies on disaster reconstruction have focused on the concept of community resilience and its importance in the recovery of communities from collective trauma. This article reviews the contributions the anthropological literature and the ethnographic case studies of two post‐Hurricane Mitch housing reconstruction sites make to the theorising of community and resilience in post‐disaster reconstruction. Specifically, the article demonstrates that communities are not static or neatly bounded entities that remain constant before, during and after a disaster; rather, communities take on shape and qualities depending on the relationships in which they engage with government agencies and aid organisations before and after disasters. Consequently, the article argues that definitions of community resilience and disaster mitigation programmes must take the emergent and relational nature of communities into account in order to address the long‐term causes and impacts of disasters.     

Gauging the societal impacts of natural disasters using a capability approach

There is a widely acknowledged need for a single composite index that provides a comprehensive picture of the societal impact of disasters. A composite index combines and logically organizes important information policy‐makers need to allocate resources for the recovery from natural disasters; it can also inform hazard mitigation strategies. This paper develops a Disaster Impact Index (DII) to gauge the societal impact of disasters on the basis of the changes in individuals’ capabilities. The DII can be interpreted as the disaster impact per capita. Capabilities are dimensions of individual well‐being and refer to the genuine opportunities individuals have to achieve valuable states and activities (such as being adequately nourished or being mobile). After discussing the steps required to construct the DII, this article computes and compares the DIIs for two earthquakes of similar magnitude in two societies at different levels of development and of two disasters (earthquake and wind storm) in the same society.     

International Strategy of Disaster Reduction (ISDR) and Integrated Disaster Reduction in China

At the beginning of the 21st century, while we are recalling the glorious achievements and progress mankind has achieved in the last century, we can not help thinking about the catastrophic wars, natural disasters and epidemic diseases that have caused serious impacts and damages to humanity. In order to achieve peaceful existence and rapid development in the new century, we must prevent and reduce such risks. In terms of sustainable socio-economic development, the 20th century has witnessed s…     

Disaster mitigation and preparedness: the case of NGOs in the Philippines

The Philippines is very vulnerable to natural disasters because of its natural setting, as well as its socio-economic, political and environmental context--especially its widespread poverty. The Philippines has a well-established institutional and legal framework for disaster management, including built-in mechanisms for participation of the people and NGOs in decision-making and programme implementation. The nature and extent of collaboration with government in disaster preparedness and mitigation issues varies greatly according to their roots, either in past confrontation and political struggles or traditional charity activities. The growing NGO involvement in disaster management has been influenced by this history. Some agencies work well with local government and there is an increasing trend for collaborative work in disaster mitigation and preparedness. Some NGOs, however, retain critical positions. These organisations tend to engage more in advocacy and legal support for communities facing increased risk because of development projects and environmental destruction. Entry points into disaster mitigation and preparedness vary as well. Development-oriented agencies are drawn into these issues when the community members with whom they work face disaster. Relief organisations, too, realise the need for community mobilisation, and are thus drawn towards development roles.     

马钢公司防震减灾计算机信息管理系统研究

依据中国地震局有关建设防震减灾示范项目大纲的要求，就大型企业如何建立防震减灾计算机信息系统进行了研究，给出了地震危险性分析、地震地质背景及震害预测和对策，为企业防震减灾工艺的信息化管理，提供了经验和借鉴。     

基于网络的突发性灾害预警及救灾系统——以雪灾为例

自然灾害是不可避免的,为减少自然灾害给人类带来的损失,以ArcIMS为平台,引入模糊神经网络构建了雪灾预测模型,建立了基于网络的突发性灾害联动预警及救灾系统.系统可以自动/半自动地进行不同灾害等级的分类,发出灾害预警警报,并在此基础上结合气象对灾害诱发条件的预报,提出预防的工程技术措施,方便具有不同用户权限的用户使用.     

A pattern of disasters and victims

Two three-dimensional conceptual models are presented that should help those concerned with disasters and disaster victims to integrate the numerous studies on the topic. The first, concerning disasters, involves matters ecological, technological and social scientific. It covers the elements earth, air, fire, water/liquid, and people. It includes the time dimensions of preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation. The second introduces a six-fold classification of victims, together with dimensions to cover the methods and kinds of delivery of different interventions that might be made available to help them. The suggestion is that, were the appropriately noted victim model placed within the larger disaster model according to the types of disaster study being examined, there might be useful academic, political, and professional implications.