Innovative solutions for averting a potential resource crisis—the case of one-person households in England and Wales

This paper seeks to test the hypothesis that growth in one-person households will increase the domestic consumption of energy, land and household goods in England and Wales. It concludes that if current consumer behaviour of one-person households persists there will be a significant increase in the consumption of all three resources in the future. However, it argues that that many opportunities exist in England and Wales for tackling this problem. For example the new housing programme, increasing ability amongst one-person households to afford “green alternatives” and the search amongst some one-person households for alternative lifestyles (which could be potentially more resource efficient). The paper suggests that providing one-person households with opportunities to live in more resource efficient housing and adopt pro-environmental behaviour could significantly reduce their future environmental impact. Various design, fiscal and awareness-raising solutions are presented in the paper and their viability is assessed. These include ecological homes, collective housing forms, occupancy tax, relocation packages, educational programmes and targeted advertising campaigns. The paper proposes that using a combination of these more innovative solutions to the problem could significantly reduce the future environmental impact of one-person households.     

基于城镇化的居民生活能源消费碳排放门限效应分析

正确认识城镇化发展中碳减排的阶段性特征和应对我国城镇化进程中的碳排放挑战,具有重要的理论参考价值和现实指导意义。现有研究较少关注城镇化发展对居民生活能源消费碳排放的影响,未能将城镇化自身阶段性变化对生活碳排放的影响联系起来。基于此,本文以城镇化率作为门限变量,以生活能源结构、居民消费率、产业结构分别作为解释变量,构建多个不同视角的门限-STIRPAT扩展模型,深入分析城镇化水平处于不同阶段时,居民生活能源消费碳排放所受影响的差异性。研究表明,城市化率分别处于门限值(0.250、0.325和0.457)前后时,居民生活能源消费碳排放所受影响出现了阶段性的变化。当城镇化率低于0.250时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放均呈负向弹性关系,分别为-0.688、-0.570、-0.570;当城市化率低于0.457时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放的负向弹性关系仍然存在,但相关关系明显减弱,能源结构负向弹性关系介于(-0.338,-0.019),居民消费率和产业结构负向弹性关系为-0.251。当城市化率超过0.457时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放已逐步显现或转变为正向弹性关系。基于上述研究结果提出相应建议:区域城镇化发展介于(0.250,0.457]这一阶段的进程中,应把握住能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放影响效应转变之前的阶段,鼓励居民生活消费,但进行节能低碳生活方式的引导,大力发展第三产业,满足居民对生活商品及服务的需求。当区域城镇化提升至0.457以上时,应合理优化能源结构,提高非化石能源比重,通过财政政策等对居民生活消费进行调控和引导,注重第三产业中的科技、金融等技术密集型的行业发展。     

CO_2 Emission Induced by Urban Household Consumption in China

Household consumption is one of the important factors that induce COL emission. Based on input-output model, this article calculated the intensity of CO2 emission of different income groups and seven provinces in China, and then estimated total CO2 emission induced by urban household consumption from 1995 to 2004 in China based on statistic data of household living expenditure. The results show that CO2 emission per capita induced by household consumption had increased from 1583 to 2498 kg CO2 during 1995-2004. The ratio of consumption-induced CO2 emission to total CO2 emission had risen from 19% to 30% in the past decade. Indirect CO2 emission accounted for an important part of the consumption-induced emission, the ratio of indirect emission to consumption-induced emission had risen from 69% to 79% during the same period. A significant difference in consumption-induced CO2 emission across different income groups and different regions has been observed. COs emission per capita of higher income groups and developed regions increased faster than that of lower income groups and developing regions. Changing lifestyle has driven significant increase in CO2 emission. Especially, increases in private transport expenditure （for example, vehicle expenditure） and house building expenditure are key driving factors of growth in consumption-induced COL emission. There are big differences in the amount of CO2 emission induced by change in lifestyle across different income groups and provinces. It can be expected that lower income households and developing regions will increase consumption to improve their livings with income growth in the future, which may induce much more CO2 emission. A reasonable level of CO2 emission is necessary to satisfy human needs and to improve living standard, but a noticeable fact is that CO2 emission per capita induced by household consumption in developed areas of China had reached a quite high level. Adjustment in lifestyle towards a low-carbon society is in urgent need.     

Impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions in Sichuan,China

Global climate change is one of the major environmental issues faced by humans.Existing evidence indicates that the anthropogenic push for a rise in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases(GHGs)(particularly CO_2)has been a primary cause for global warming.Aside from economic and teclinological factors,demographic dynamics(including human consumption in a broad demographic sense)has been a major driver for CO_2 emissions.In this paper,we performed both nonlinear regression analysis(based on the STIRPAT model)and gray correlation degree analysis(based on gray system theory)on the impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions.Our results reveal that CO_2 emissions are positively correlated with population size and GDP per capita and negatively correlated with energy intensity.We also show that gray correlation degree with CO_2 emissions for five variables(i.e.,household consumption,urbanization rate,household size,population aging rate,population size)varies substantially:household consumptionurbanization ratehousehold sizepopulation aging ratepopulation size,with household consumption being the highest,and population size the lowest.To mitigate the impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions,it is of vital significance to nurture people's awareness of sustainable consumption and to adhere to current population control policies.     

Rainfall variability and household coping strategies in northern Tanzania: a motivation for district-level strategies

Climate variability is an important stress factor for rural livelihoods in most developing countries where households have been adapting to environmental shocks for decades. Climate change results in increased variability and poses new challenges for rural livelihoods, as well as for policymakers in adjusting policies to changing conditions. This paper examines the potential relationships between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2,700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. The results show that rainfall patterns in the region are very location-specific and that the distribution of household reported harvest shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support and the selling of assets. There are no large differences in applied coping strategies across the region, but district-level data demonstrate how local strategies differ between localities within the districts. The results emphasize that in order to target rural policies and make them efficient, it is important to take into account the local conditions that rural households face when experiencing climate-related shocks. Finally, shocks reported by households appear to correspond well with observed variability in rainfall patterns.     

Soil salinity,household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh

As a creeping process, salinisation represents a significant long-term environmental risk in coastal and deltaic environments. Excess soil salinity may exacerbate existing risks of food insecurity in densely populated tropical deltas, which is likely to have a negative effect on human and ecological sustainability of these regions and beyond. This study focuses on the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and uses data from the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the Soil Resource Development Institute to investigate the effect of soil salinity and wealth on household food security. The outcome variables are two widely used measures of food security: calorie availability and household expenditure on food items. The main explanatory variables tested include indicators of soil salinity and household-level socio-economic characteristics. The results of logistic regression show that in unadjusted models, soil salinisation has a significant negative effect on household food security. However, this impact becomes statistically insignificant when households’ wealth is taken into account. The results further suggest that education and remittance flows, but not gender or working status of the household head, are significant predictors of food insecurity in the study area. The findings indicate the need to focus scholarly and policy attention on reducing wealth inequalities in tropical deltas in the context of the global sustainable deltas initiative and the proposed Sustainable Development Goals.     

城镇居民不同收入阶层的基本需求及边际消费倾向研究

扩大城镇居民消费需求是推动我国经济发展方式转变的重要途径。了解城镇居民不同收入阶层的消费特征,有助于制定针对性的激励措施,改善政策的实施效果。本文采用2000-2009年中国城镇居民按收入水平分组的38项消费支出数据,运用改进后的扩展型线性支出模型,对不同收入水平的城镇居民基本需求、边际消费倾向及相关影响因素进行分析。结果显示:中低收入城镇居民的基本需求消费占其可支配收入的较大比重;食品和衣着是其基本需求消费的主要方面;并且在食品、衣着、交通通讯和居住上表现出较大的边际消费倾向。较高收入城镇居民的基本需求支出主要集中于享受型消费;在交通、在外用餐、文化娱乐、文娱用耐用消费品和住房上表现出较大的边际消费倾向。发展和享受型消费品的价格变动对中低收入居民的消费支出影响较大;收入水平的提高有利于城镇居民消费结构的升级。最后,针对不同收入水平的城镇居民,本文提出了刺激消费的差别化政策建议。     

农户对生物质能源产业参与意愿实证分析——以湖北省为例

生物质能源一直是人类赖以生存的重要能源，它是仅次于煤炭、石油和天然气而居于世界能源消费总量第四位的能源，在整个能源系统中占有重要地位。生物质能源产业的发展不仅仅需要产品生产企业、政府相关机构的参与，微观个体农户同样扮演着至关重要的角色。农户对生物质能源产业的态度和行为，会对政府和生产者的行为选择产生深刻影响。以湖北农户对生物质能源产业的参与意愿的调查为例，运用因子分析法，对农户对生物质能源产业参与意愿和参与行为的影响因素进行分析。分析结果表明：预期收益、年均纯收入、环保意识、文化程度、配套设备生产情况、产品技术成熟度、相关政策支持、商品能源使用率、当地生物质资源量9个因素会影响农户参与意愿。提出了相应的建议：一是提高农户对生物质能源的预期收益和农户收入水平；二是从根本上提高农户综合素质，增强环境保护意识；三是完善生物质能源产业技术、政策支撑体系，合理开发利用生物质资源     

Calculation and decomposition of regional household energy consumption in China: based on perspectives of urbanization and residents’ consumption

Demographic urbanization caused great changes in scale of residents’ consumption and residents’ lifestyle and then impacted changes of regional household energy consumption. This paper expanded Logarithmic Mean Decomposition Index method through introducing variables of urbanization and residential consumption into the model. It also analyzed the influences of six factors as energy structure, energy intensity, population scale, urbanization, residential consumption, and consumption inhibit on regional household energy consumption. Results showed that in 2003–2012, impact of urbanization on regional household energy consumption of Chinese three areas was significantly higher than population size. The “population gathered in eastern region” phenomenon caused eastern region getting the largest population scale effect. Driving force of residential consumption on regional household energy consumption was much higher than the other five effects. Due to the comparative advantage of residential consumption compared with government consumption, investment, and net export, the decrease of consumption ratio promoted the growth of regional household energy consumption. Energy intensity in Chinese three regions kept reducing in 2003–2012. The progress of energy utilization technology slowed the growth of regional household energy consumption, and energy intensity effect was most significant in the central region.     

中国农村居民煤炭消费及影响因素研究

农村居民煤炭消费牵涉到农村居民生活方式与能源转型、北方供暖清洁化改革、大气污染治理等重大改革实践,如何准确理解和研判现有的农村居民煤炭消费现状,并进而识别出科学、有效的减煤措施,已成为改善农村居民能源结构、治理农村地区煤炭消费、改善北方地区大气质量的重要手段之一。然而,现有对农村居民煤炭消费的统计数据可能存在一定低估,基础性数据的匮乏与不足严重阻碍了科学研究和公共决策。为了准确了解我国农村居民煤炭消费的现状、特征与空间分布,本文采用第三次中国家庭能源消费调查数据对农村居民的煤炭消费进行了核算,并针对户均煤炭消费量和地区农村居民煤炭消费总量进行了比较,在此基础上还考察了气候差异、资源禀赋、收入水平等因素对农村居民煤炭需求的影响。研究结果表明,2014年中国农村居民生活用煤炭消费总量为6 585.7万tce,平均每户煤炭消费量为347.2 kgce,其中供暖用煤占比96.9%,烹饪用煤占比3.1%。各省的户均煤炭消费和煤炭消费总量呈现显著的空间差异,其中:东北、西部地区农村居民户均煤炭消费量显著高于其他地区,北京及周边的河北、山东、山西、内蒙、辽宁和天津7个省、市的农村居民共消费了全国55%的农村生活用煤,其中北京周边的河北、山东和山西三省农村居民消费了全国46.6%的农村煤炭消费。地区煤炭资源禀赋、农村居民住房面积与供暖用煤需求显著正相关,而冬季户外温度、居民收入水平同煤炭需求之间关系不显著。未来政府应通过改善农村居民民生需求、推动农村能源转型、提高农村能源统计水平等途径来有效治理农村散煤消费。     

基于STIRPAT模型的甘肃省环境影响分析

能源短缺已成为全球资源环境的主要问题之一，辩明人类活动各因素对能源消费的影响程度，并据此制定和实施可持续的能源消费政策是当前的研究热点。以STIRPAT模型为分析工具，以甘肃省1991～2009年能源消费总量为环境影响指标，分解了人文因素对环境影响的作用大小。结果表明，富裕程度的提高和城市化进程的推进都能够加剧环境的恶化，而且城市化对环境影响的弹性系数是富裕对环境影响弹性系数的278倍。在观测数据范围内，尚未出现环境Kuznets曲线的拐点，仍然处于曲线的上升段。居民消费结构的多样化有利于降低能源消费，其对环境影响的抑制作用略低于富裕对环境影响的加剧作用。最后讨论了STIRPAT模型的优缺点，并指出甘肃省主要相关因子对环境影响的作用机理还有待更深一步的研究     

Evaluating intervention options to achieve environmental benefits in the residential sector

Government intervention schemes in the form of policy instruments and financial incentives or rebates can have a major influence on the adoption of technologies by residential consumers to reduce their natural resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the pattern and rate of consumer uptake of voluntary schemes are not always well-understood or easily taken into account in future scenarios analyses. This paper presents an innovative extension of the Bass diffusion model that has been integrated with multi-criteria analysis to enable explicit consideration and balancing of the impacts of technology cost, financial benefits, demographic suitability and household income on the likelihood of adoption. This ‘Intervention Options’ model is formulated into a constrained integer programming problem to allow optimisation of the size and timing of government rebates to maximise adoption rate and, ultimately, environmental benefits. The model’s capability is demonstrated using an Australian case study of 25,000 households, and historical information on the uptake of solar hot water and solar photovoltaic panels in Brisbane, Queensland. Case study results reveal new insights and important context-relevant trends that could assist policy makers to substantially improve the effectiveness of intervention schemes to achieve environmental goals within desired budgets.     

不同类型农户对宅基地退出的响应

利用重庆市梁平县农户的调查数据,运用Logistic模型,探讨了户籍制度改革下不同类型农户宅基地退出意愿及其影响因素。结果表明：(1)在现有退地补偿政策下农户意愿普遍偏低,不同类型农户退地意愿存在一定的差异性;(2)影响纯农户宅基地退出的因素有户主年龄、家庭拥有的房屋数量、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响Ⅰ兼业户宅基地退出的因素有家庭宅基地面积大小、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响Ⅱ兼业户宅基地退出的因素有家庭小孩数、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响非农户宅基地退出的因素有户主年龄、户主文化程度、家庭人口数、宅基地面积和退地收益;其中,退地收益是影响各类农户退地决策最显著的因素,对政策的支持度是农户退地决策影响力最大的因素。研究认为,影响各类农户退地决策的因素存在差异,其核心问题还在于退地政策。政府应根据不同类型农户的特征完善目前的农村宅基地退出政策,这有助于提高农户的参与意愿,顺利推进户籍制度和农村土地制度的改革     

城市居民生活能源消费研究进展综述

近十年来中国城市消费领域能耗年增长率已达到7.4%,超过中国总能耗量5.9%的年增长率。随着中国逐渐完成工业化进程,其工业用能将呈现增速放缓甚至总量减少的趋势,而居民生活及交通能源需求将随着人民生活水平提高而稳步增长,最终呈现总量与比重逐渐增加的态势。城市居民活动与其能源消费的定量化分析已成为当前多学科的研究热点。本文以家庭室内和室外直接能源消费作为研究对象,对城市居民生活能耗的影响因素、能源足迹核算方法、时间-室内能耗模拟,及空间-交通-能源耦合模拟等关键问题的研究进展进行综述。研究发现,第一,家庭能源消费属于派生性需求,不同的时间利用方式会产生能源消费水平和结构上的差异,但现有研究较少从时间及活动链分析角度展开。第二,由于家庭预算及时间约束的存在,室内外能源消费行为密切相关,但少有研究对上述两个城市生活部门的能源消费进行整体性分析核算。第三,基于活动的建模方法可以提供一种将居民室内外用能行为进行整合的分析框架。最后对今后该领域的研究开展进行了展望:第一,从活动分析和时间利用视角,建立自下而上的居民室内外用能活动仿真模型,在更小的时间和空间尺度模拟家庭能源需求,识别家庭能耗的主要来源、控制的重点人群、时段和区域,指导能源政策制定;第二,深入剖析能源回弹效应产生的决策机理,以及怎样的政策或政策组合可以有效减少回弹;第三,将社会网络分析引入居民生活能耗研究,更加全面理解影响家庭用能行为的机制,为家庭能源消费管理提供新思路。     

Assessment of adoption and impact of rainwater harvesting technologies on rural farm household income: the case of rainwater harvesting ponds in Rwanda

Rainwater harvesting is increasingly viewed as a major strategy for enhancing agricultural productivity and boosting farm income in many drought-prone areas. While this technology is being promoted in many developing countries, there is conflicting evidence in the literature about its impact on welfare of farm households. This study uses propensity score matching and discrete choice regression techniques to assess the impact of rainwater harvesting ponds on farm household income and factors that influence adoption of such technologies in Rwanda. It finds that households with rainwater harvesting ponds have significantly higher income than their counterparts of comparable observable characteristics. It further finds evidence that increase in farm income occurs via increased input use and that household size, asset endowments and participation in farmer organizations condition adoption of rainwater harvesting ponds. The study concludes that adoption of rainwater harvesting technologies has positive benefits on farm households. It discusses the policy implications that adoption of rainwater harvesting ponds presents a pathway for reducing rural poverty.     

中国省际间农村居民收入结构和收入差距分析

在计算基尼系数的基础上,文章得出了改革开放以来中国省际间农村居民收入差距不断扩大的趋势,收入基尼系数从1981年的0.095一直上升到了2003年的0.181,直到近年来,收入差距才开始略有缩小。文章从收入结构的视角研究了省际间农村居民收入差距产生的原因。首先利用1983-2008年较长时期的数据分析了农村居民收入结构的变化,发现从总体上而言,中国各地区农村居民的收入结构均表现出了农业收入比重减少,非农收入比重增加的明显趋势;然后运用基尼系数的分解方法实证分析了不同收入来源对于收入差距的影响,研究发现,工资性收入是差距促增的,是目前中国省际间农村居民收入差距扩大最重要的原因,而家庭经营性收入者起着差距促减的作用,转移性收入和财产性收入的不平等程度较高,但是由于其在总收入中的比例不高,对总的收入差距影响较小。最后,文章提出了缩小省际间农村居民收入差距的政策建议。     

Personal Metabolism (PM) coupled with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model: Danish Case Study

Sustainable and informed resource consumption is the key to make everyday living sustainable for entire populations. An intelligent and strategic way of addressing the challenges related with sustainable development of the everyday living of consumers is to identify consumption-determined hotspots in terms of environmental and health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. Analyzing consumer life styles in terms of consumption patterns in order to identify hotspots is hence the focus of this study. This is achieved by taking into account the entire value chain of the commodities consumed in the context of environmental and human health burdens, as well as resource consumptions. A systematic commodity consumption, commodity disposal, and life style survey of 1281 persons living in urbanized Danish areas was conducted. The findings of the survey showed new impact dimensions in terms of Personal Metabolism (PM) patterns of residents living in urbanized areas of Denmark. Extending the PM analysis with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) provided a clear picture of the per capita environmental and human health burdens, as well as resource consumptions, and the exact origin hereof.A generic PM-LCA Model for all the 1281 persons was set-up in Gabi 6. The assessment results obtained applying the model on all 1281 personal consumption scenarios yielded the 1281 Personal Impact Profiles (PIPs). Consumption of food and energy (electricity and thermal energy) proved to be the primary impact sources of PM, followed by transport. The PIPs further revealed that behavioral factors (e.g. different diets, use of cars, household size) affect the profiles. Hence, behavioral changes are one means out of many that humanity will most likely have to rely on during the sustainable development process. The results of this study will help the Danish and other comparable populations to identify and prioritize the steps towards reducing their environmental, human health, and resource consumption burdens.     

Impact Study on Human Activity to the Resource-environment Based on the Consumption Level Difference of China's Provinces or Autonomous Regions

The study on population and the resource-environment by the consumption may contribute to the further cognition about their correlations and provide the policy references for natural resources use and environmental protection. This article has studied the impact status of the consumption level difference of China's 31 provinces or autonomous regions on the resource-environment in 2005 by per capita consumption expenditure and serial statistical data with unit person method and constructed consumption model and hierarchical cluster analysis. We found several trends. To the intensity that population acting on the resource-environment, four sorts of regions might be divided in 2005, furthermore, most of them were at the level of unit person. Provinces or autonomous regions, located in the developed coastal areas in China, generally have the bigger impact intensity on the resource-environment than the others. That is to say, the natural resources mainly flow from west to east and from north to south, but the environmental loads are shared in the whole China and are likely to be aggravated from east to west reversely. The main causes of imbalance of pressure on the resource-environment should be the difference of consumption level, the unmatchable resource exploitation and utilization, the imbalance of discharging pollutants, and the difference of moderate carrying capacity. To the total impact quantities that population acting on the resource-environment, four sorts of regions were divided in 2005 and the difference of them was notable. Provinces or autonomous regions, having the bigger impact quantities on the resource-environment, are generally located in the eastern and central China while the extended western China is still the weak impact area of the resource-environment consumption or terminal pressure. Provinces or autonomous regions are few, where the total impact quantities are more or less; alternately, those are many, where the total impact quantities rank the middle.     

Landscape diversity and associated coping strategies during food shortage periods: evidence from the Sudano-Sahelian region of Burkina Faso

The importance of forest resources for rural communities’ livelihoods has increasingly been recognized over the last three decades. Forests provide food, generate incomes, provide supporting (nutrient cycling, pollination), and regulating (climate, diseases, water regulation and purification) services for agriculture, in addition to their aesthetic, cultural and spiritual role. However, most of the studies on forest resource use do not focus on the role of landscape organization in addressing the impact of climate variability and the risk of food insecurity. This study aims to examine the contribution of woodlands and trees towards decreasing the risk of food insecurity and the importance of landscape structure and composition in coping with food shortages. It took place in two villages in Burkina Faso, on both ends of the woodlands and tree-cover spectrum. We demonstrate that in both landscapes, ecosystem goods, such as shea nuts and fuelwood, represent a safety net for households during food shortage periods. We demonstrate that households shape their adaptive strategies differently depending on the resources available and the structure of the landscape. People living in a landscape with a savannah matrix (Sorobouly) rely on fuelwood trade to purchase cereals, while those living in a landscape with a parkland matrix (Kalembouly) rely on shea nuts. Agricultural, environmental and climate change policies that reinforce the rights of the most vulnerable to access key resources provided by these landscapes and development programs which assure their sustainable use will simultaneously enhance food security and increase their adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and variability.