热电联产的效益与总量控制

介绍了热电联产的基本类型和一般规划原则,分析了热电联产规划为社会、经济及环境带来的效益,论证了热电联产是城市能源、环境协调发展的必由之路。通过SO2总量排放的分析,导出热电联产与分散供热能源利用方式所产生SO2排放总量的比较方法和计算模式。     

Dynamisiertes Emissionskataster für den Freistaat Sachsen

A computer aided tool was created for the calculation of emission values in Saxony. It is based on the Geographic Information System ArcInfo and enables the emission values for past, present and future periods to be assessed. At present, the anthropogenic air pollutants SO₂, NO_x, CO, NH₃, NMVOC, TSP, CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O can be calculated by means of emission factors and statistical values. The tool is open to future expansions. The moduls represent the following emission groups: Power stations, large agricultural farms and large industrial plants as point sources, as well as transport, households, small consumer and the total emission of agriculture as area sources. The local resolution of emission values, the relationship of emission values to geographic or political territories, the inclusion of a high resolved digital street network, and the use of actual data concerning land use, density of population and density of build up areas are realized by GIS ArcInfo. The dynamic emission inventory can be used, alone or in conjunction with an atmospheric dispersion model, to assess trends in air quality.     

An opinion on the distribution and behavior of chemicals in response to climate change,with particular reference to the Asia-Pacific region

There is a general lack of knowledge as regards the effects of climate change on pollutant behavior. This is particularly true of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR). This region has major significance in terms of global pollutant emission and also displays a wide variety of environments. This review presents the authors’ opinions on possible implications of climate change for pollutant behavior in the APR. Although differing responses can be expected across the region, there are clear implications as regards the short- and long-term behavior of pollutants. Effects can be predicted through modeling, but further data are required for model calibration. Nevertheless, it can be predicted that climate change will affect processes including global distillation of persistent organic pollutants, airborne transport of heavy metals, half-life of readily degradable pollutants, and eutrophication in water bodies. Particulates are expected to play a central role in mediating the effects of climate change, and successful predictive models will need to be based on particulate-mediated transport and behavior. Climate change also has the potential to cause an increase in the intensity and frequency of harmful algal blooms in aquatic environments throughout the region, with significant implications for supply of both food and drinking water.     

中国工业烟尘排放状况研究

烟尘是工业最主要的污染气体排放之一,它不仅威胁人体健康,还严重破坏区域环境。为了研究分析2001—2009年中国工业烟尘排放的发展趋势及其影响因素,并有针对性地提出工业烟尘减排的建议与对策,文章首先根据中国工业的经济与环境数据,描述分析了2001—2009年工业烟尘排放的发展趋势,再利用对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）将工业烟尘排放的影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和治理效应4个子因素。通过对比分析各子因素的影响程度和发展变化情况,得出规模效应是工业烟尘排放的重要来源,技术效应和治理效应是工业烟尘减排的主要动力,而结构效应是未来烟尘减排的重要方向等结论。文章根据各工业子行业的烟尘产生与排放量,建议将化工及金属行业,水热电气供应业作为目前工业烟尘减排中的重点行业,这两个行业的烟尘产生量与排放量之和均达到工业烟尘产生量与排放量的80%以上。通过对比各影响因素对各工业子行业的影响程度,指出各子行业烟尘减排的主要方向与存在的障碍。     

A new prediction method of industrial atmospheric pollutant emission intensity based on pollutant emission standard quantification

● Established a quantification method of pollutant emission standard. ● Predicted the SO₂ emission intensity of single coking enterprises in China. ● Evaluated the influence of pollutant discharge standard on prediction accuracy. ● Analyzed the SO₂ emissions of Chinese provincial and municipal coking enterprises. Industrial emissions are the main source of atmospheric pollutants in China. Accurate and reasonable prediction of the emission of atmospheric pollutants from single enterprise can determine the exact source of atmospheric pollutants and control atmospheric pollution precisely. Based on China’s coking enterprises in 2020, we proposed a quantitative method for pollutant emission standards and introduced the quantification results of pollutant emission standards (QRPES) into the construction of support vector regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) prediction methods for SO₂ emission of coking enterprises in China. The results show that, affected by the types of coke ovens and regions, China’s current coking enterprises have implemented a total of 21 emission standards, with marked differences. After adding QRPES, it was found that the root mean squared error (RMSE) of SVR and RFR decreased from 0.055 kt/a and 0.059 kt/a to 0.045 kt/a and 0.039 kt/a, and theR² increased from 0.890 and 0.881 to 0.926 and 0.945, respectively. This shows that the QRPES can greatly improve the prediction accuracy, and the SO₂ emissions of each enterprise are highly correlated with the strictness of standards. The predicted result shows that 45% of SO₂ emissions from Chinese coking enterprises are concentrated in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Hebei provinces in central China. The method created in this paper fills in the blank of forecasting method of air pollutant emission intensity of single enterprise and is of great help to the accurate control of air pollutants.     

Markets and environmental management with a storable pollutant

Lee [J. Environ. Econ. Manag., in press] investigates possibilities where pollutants may be stored for a period of time and later released into the environment when adverse effects are minimal. The treatment and storage of pollutants before their release into the environment is a crucial part of many abatement programs. Surprisingly, emission charges will not induce optimal abatement when storage is possible. This occurs because the firms' response to the dynamic tax is indeterminant. We suggest alternative controls, whereby rights to emit pollutants are sold competitively and demonstrate that markets provide incentives for the optimal generation-storage-emission of pollution by firms. In deriving this result an important difference between markets and taxes is revealed. With markets there is still indeterminacy at the firm level, but the aggregate response of all firms is dictated by market forces that insure pollution is reduced by some desired amount.     

Daytime air pollution transport mechanisms in stable atmospheres of narrow versus wide urban valleys

Transport of air pollutants emitted from urban valleys can be strongly restricted by interactions between static and dynamic factors including topographic forcing, low-level atmospheric stability related to temperature inversions, and urban heat island-induced circulations. Interplay between these processes has a complex and dynamic nature, and is determinant for the evolution of different ventilation mechanisms and the associated impacts on air quality. Here we investigate these transport mechanisms through large eddy simulations using EULAG, an established model for multiscale flows, to simulate an idealized atmospheric environment in narrow versus wide urban valleys during critical conditions for air quality (high atmospheric stability). Our results show how the ventilation of valleys depends on a dynamic (variable during the daytime) balance between interacting and sometimes competing processes related to thermally-driven slope flows, urban heat island-induced flows, and the trapping effect of atmospheric stability; and how valley width affects this balance. Particularly important is that the time-space distribution of pollutants (a passive tracer) varies greatly between both valleys despite having the same urban area and emission rates. These variations lead to pollutants being mostly concentrated in different areas of the narrow and wide valleys. We discuss the mechanisms behind these results and their potential implications for real urban valleys. Further understanding of these mechanisms is crucial for explaining the occurrence of severe air pollution episodes and informing related decision-making processes in urban valleys.

     

Reduction of CO2 emission by optimally tracking a pre-defined target

The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the need for balanced and efficient investments in the reduction of the greenhouse effect caused by emissions of CO₂ on a global scale. In a previous paper, the authors proposed a mathematical model describing the dynamic relation of CO₂ emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology. An efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect has also been proposed. Here, this model is used to provide estimates of the investments needed in land reforestation and in the adoption of clean technologies for an optimum emission and abatement of CO₂, for the period of 1996–2014. The required investments are computed to minimize deviations with respect to the emission targets proposed in the Kyoto Protocol for European Countries. The emission target can be achieved by 2014 with investments in reforestation peaking in 2004, and a reduction of the expected GDP of 42%, relative to 2006. Investments in clean technology should increase between 2008 and 2010 with maximum transfer figures around 70 million American dollars. Total (cumulative) costs are, however, relatively high depending on the price of carbon abatement and the rate at which the expected CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere should be reduced. Results highlight the advantages for policy makers to be able to manage investments in climate policy more efficiently, controlling optimum transfers based on a portfolio of actions that tracks a pre-defined CO₂ concentration target.     

Efficient waste and pollution abatements for regions in Japan

This paper computes efficient industrial waste and air pollutants abatements for 47 regions in Japan for the period 1992–2002. The variable-returns-to-scale (VRS) data envelopment analysis (DEA) with a single output (real GDP) and seven inputs (labor, real public capital stock, real private capital stock, industrial waste, sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxide, and soot and dust) is used to compute target wastes of each region for each year. The efficient abatement ratios of each region in each year are obtained by comparing the actual to the target amount of a pollutant. Our major findings are: (1) Most regions in Japan have significant room to reduce their pollution since there is a wide gap between efficient and inefficient regions; (2) For each air pollutant, approximately 25–33% of Japan's prefectures can reduce their output by more than 50% without harming regional GDP, and approximately one-third of prefectures can reduce industrial waste more than 30%; (3) Hokkaido is the least efficient region for all years studied and for all waste and pollutants, and target abatement ratios there drastically worsened in the last two sample years; (4) Tokyo, Saitama, Yamanashi, Shiga, Nara, and Tottori are efficient with respect to each type of industrial waste and pollution throughout the study period; (5) many regions in the bottom quartile with respect to real per capita income have significant room to reduce their waste and pollution output; and (6) many regions where energy-intensive industries dominate produce excessive amounts of waste and air pollution compared to other regions.     

珠江三角洲土地利用变化对特征大气污染物扩散的影响

在珠江三角洲两种下垫面条件下,应用CALPUFF大气污染扩散模式,对特征污染物SO2、SO42-的扩散进行数值模拟,探讨大规模土地利用变化,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,对珠江三角洲地区大气污染物扩散的影响,并通过对4个典型区污染物月均质量浓度变化特征分析,揭示土地利用变化对不同地区的污染物分布的影响机制。模拟结果表明：土地利用变化,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,不利于污染物扩散,污染源下风方向地区受影响较大,污染物质量浓度明显升高,SO2和 SO42-年均质量浓度分别增加14.07%和3.31%;受影响范围、变化幅度与污染源排污强度呈正相关,变化幅度亦与污染源距离远近呈负相关。土地利用变化后,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,四个典型区 SO2月均质量浓度都表现为升高趋势,且冬季 SO2质量浓度升高幅度最大,夏季升高幅度最小,临近污染源密集区的两个典型区SO2月均质量浓度分别增加33.6%和26.3%。土地利用变化不仅改变局地的污染扩散,也会对区域的污染扩散有一定影响,尤其对污染源分布密集区的大气污染物扩散影响强度最大。因此,建议人类在城市化建设过程中尽可能保留自然斑块,消除人工下垫面对污染物扩散的负面影响。     

Increasing trend of primary NO2 exhaust emission fraction in Hong Kong

Despite the successful reduction in roadside NO( x ) levels, no such decrease has been detected in roadside NO(2) concentration in Hong Kong. One underlying cause could be the rising primary NO(2) fraction of the total emission of NO( x ). Primary NO(2) can be particularly detrimental to Hong Kong because a large fraction of the population are exposed to the traffic-related primary pollutants in the street canyons formed by congested high-rise buildings. In this study, hourly mean concentration data for roadside nitrogen oxides (NO( x )), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and background ozone (O(3)) were used to estimate the mean primary NO(2) fraction from vehicle exhausts in Hong Kong. An overall increasing trend was observed for the primary NO(2) fraction (f-NO(2)) values in all the three roadside air monitoring sites. The primary NO(2) as a fraction of total NO( x ) (f-NO(2)) increased approximately from 2% in 1998 to 13% in 2008 in Hong Kong. The two particular periods of rising f-NO(2) coincided with the two implementation periods of the diesel retrofit programs for the light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles. Future vehicle emission control strategies should target not only total NO( x ) but also primary NO(2). Health benefit or disease burden estimates should be taken into account and updated in the process of policy planning and evaluation.     

国家标准GB／T3840—91中城市大气污染物总量控制A—P值法的应用

本文叙述了在大气总悬浮微粒物实行总量控制时使用GB/T384-91中A-P值方法的经验,给出了一些计算公式及参数,同时还介绍了使用上述国家标准时对求算允许排放总量的主要参数土地面积进行人口订正的经验公式和确定经验系数的方法.     

天津市陆源污染物允许排海量的研究

渤海近岸海域污染已是约环渤海地区社会经济的发展。本文对配合天津市主要污染物总量控制，对天津市陆源主要污染物允许排海量的功能区划原则，水环境主要污染物，总量，主要污染物允许排海量的数学模型，陆源主要污染物允许排海量的计算依据等进行了阐述，同时对主要排污口主要污染物允许排海量及其消减量进行了计算。     

Growth and pollution convergence: Theory and evidence

Stabilizing pollution levels in the long run is a pre-requisite for sustainable growth. We develop a neoclassical growth model with endogenous emission reduction predicting that, along optimal sustainable paths, pollution growth rates are (i) positively related to output growth (scale effect) and (ii) negatively related to emission levels (defensive effect). This dynamic law reduces to a convergence equation that is empirically tested for two major and regulated air pollutants – sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides – with a panel of 25 European countries spanning the years 1980–2005. Traditional parametric models are rejected by the data. More flexible regression techniques confirm the existence of both the scale and the defensive effect, supporting the model predictions.     

An infinite-horizon model of dynamic membership of international environmental agreements

Much of the literature on international environmental agreements (IEAs) uses static models, although most important transboundary pollution problems involve stock pollutants. The few papers that study IEAs using models of stock pollutants do not allow for the possibility that membership of the IEA may change endogenously over time. In this paper we analyse a simple infinite-horizon version of the static model of self-enforcing IEAs, in which damage costs increase with the stock of pollution, and countries decide each period whether to join an IEA. Using a quadratic approximation of the value function of the representative country we show that there exists a steady-state stock of pollution with corresponding steady-state IEA membership, and that as the stock rises towards steady state the IEA membership falls. Moreover, we find that the greater is the cost of damage, and hence the greater are the potential gains from cooperation, the smaller is the membership of a self-enforcing IEA.     

天津市大气主要污染物总量控制允许排放量实施方案

本文采用环境质量总量控制技术路线。在天津市建立了１８个总量控制区,利用箱扩散模型（Ａ值法）测算了各总控区二氧化硫的允许排放量。利用Ｐ值法将区域允排量分配到源。本文还将化学质量受体平衡（ＣＭＢ）模型纳入Ａ－Ｐ值模型,形成ＡＰ－ＣＭＢ模型,用以测算烟尘和工业粉尘的区域允排量将将分配到源。由此构成天津市大气主要污染物总量控制允排量实施方案。     

Empirical modeling of atmospheric deposition in mountainous landscapes.

Atmospheric deposition has long been recognized as an important source of pollutants and nutrients to ecosystems. The need for reliable, spatially explicit estimates of total atmospheric deposition (wet + dry + cloud) is central, not only to air pollution effects researchers, but also for calculation of input-output budgets, and to decision makers faced with the challenge of assessing the efficacy of policy initiatives related to deposition. Although atmospheric deposition continues to represent a critical environmental and scientific issue, current estimates of total deposition have large uncertainties, particularly across heterogeneous landscapes such as montane regions. We developed an empirical modeling approach that predicts total deposition as a function of landscape features. We measured indices of total deposition to the landscapes of Acadia (121 km2) and Great Smoky Mountains (2074 km2) National Parks (USA). Using approximately 300-400 point measurements and corresponding landscape variables at each park, we constructed a statistical (general linear) model relating the deposition index to landscape variables measured in the field. The deposition indices ranged over an order of magnitude, and in response to vegetation type and elevation, which together explained approximately 40% of the variation in deposition. Then, using the independent landscape variables available in GIS data layers, we created a GIS-relevant statistical nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition model (LandMod). We applied this model to create park-wide maps of total deposition that were scaled to wet and dry deposition data from the closest national network monitoring stations. The resultant deposition maps showed high spatial heterogeneity and a four- to sixfold variation in "hot spots" and "cold spots" of N and S deposition ranging from 3 to 31 kg N x ha(-1) x yr(-1) and from 5 to 42 kg S x ha(-1) x yr(-1) across these park landscapes. Area-weighted deposition was found to be up to 70% greater than NADP plus CASTNET monitoring-station estimates together. Model-validation results suggest that the model slightly overestimates deposition for deciduous and coniferous forests at low elevation and underestimates deposition for high-elevation coniferous forests. The spatially explicit deposition estimates derived from LandMod are an improvement over what is currently available. Future research should test LandMod in other mountainous environments and refine it to account for (currently) unexplained variation in deposition.     

工业化高速发展时期广州市的碳收支变化初步研究

为了了解我国发达城市在工业化高速发展进程中CO2的收支状况,以广州市为研究对象,首次估算了其从1990年到2003年每年的净固碳量和释碳量,并分析了其变化趋势。研究结果表明,这13年间广州市的净固碳量与总释碳量年均增长率分别为0.93%与7.16%;到2003年,其净固碳量为2.57Mt,而其总释碳量已达到22.79Mt,其中约70%的释碳量源于化石燃料的燃烧。工业化高速发展时期也是释碳量日益高于净固碳量的时期,两者之间差距的逐步加大,已经使得广州市目前的碳收支状况发展到了极不平衡的程度。而逐年递增的人口和以化石燃料为主的能源消费是造成广州市碳收支严重失衡的主要原因。     

Endosulfan in the Chinese environment: monitoring and modeling

This paper reviews the usage and emissions of endosulfan, the newest member of the persistent organic pollutants (POPs), in China, and its fate and behavior in Chinese environment. Endosulfan usage in China has been estimated to be approximately 25700 t between 1994 and 2004. Concentrations of endosulfan in different environmental compartments in China, such as air, soil, water, and biota, but focusing at air and surface soil, have been summarized. Concentrations of total endosulfan in surface soil across China were ranged from below detection limit (BDL) to 19000 pg·g^?1 dry weight (dw), with geometric mean of 120 pg·g^?1dw. The results indicated that endosulfan sulfate had highest concentration in Chinese soil, followed by ??- and ??-endosulfan. Air concentrations of endosulfan in China were ranged 0?C340 pg·m^?3 for ??-endosulfan and 0?C121 pg·m^?3 for ??-endosulfan, with high concentrations occurred in the cotton production areas. Gridded usage inventories of endosulfan on a fine gridded system with a 1/4° longitude by 1/6° latitude resolution were compiled, from which, emission to air and residues in soil of endosulfan were calculated in each grid by using a modified simplified gridded pesticide emission and residue model (SGPERM), an integrated modeling system combining mathematical model, database management system, and geographic information system. Total emissions were around 10800 t from 1994 to 2004. Based on the emission and residue inventories, concentrations of ??- and ??-endosulfan in Chinese air and agricultural surface soil were also calculated for each grid cell, which are in general consistent with the published monitoring data.     

Intercontinental transport of air pollution

There is an increasing interest on the intercontinental transport of air pollution among the three main emission regions at northern mid-latitudes: North America, Europe, and East Asia. Air pollutants with sufficient long lifetime can be transported from one continent to another. Observations from ground sites, aircraft and satellites have demonstrated this intercontinental-scale transport of air pollutants in the free troposphere. Numerical models have been applied to understand the pathways of the transport and the impact of intercontinental pollution transport. This paper reviews current observational evidence and modeling studies of intercontinental transport of ozone and its precursors, and the resulting impacts on air quality.