碳排放的人文发展绩效指标与实证分析

随着气候问题的日益凸显,发展低碳经济已成为全球共识.因此,提高碳排放绩效便成为题中应有之义.既有的关于碳排放绩效的研究主要围绕碳生产率指标展开,问题在于碳生产率测度的是碳排放的经济绩效,而非经济社会福利绩效.本文综合排放总量、人均排放以及发展阶段三个因素,构建碳排放的人文发展绩效指标,在此基础上对二十国集团1990-2006年的碳排放绩效进行分析,结果显示历年绩效平均值排前五名的国家是印度尼西亚、巴西、阿根廷、土耳其和墨西哥.七个国家的碳排放绩效呈现上升的趋势,其中德国和英国碳排放绩效增速较快,且在控制碳排放的同时保持了人类发展水平的提高,值得其他国家效仿.人类发展指数和碳排放绩效二维组合的国家分类表明,碳排放绩效不高是各国普遍存在的问题.无论从动态还是静态角度来看,中国目前都不具备低碳竞争优势.最后对中国如何提高碳排放绩效提出了从技术、制度与理念三方面进行创新的政策建议.     

中国服务业碳生产率的空间收敛性研究

在经济服务化与低碳化的双重背景下,研究中国服务业碳生产率的演变轨迹,区域差异及空间收敛特征,对于推动中国服务业高质量发展具有重要的意义。采用2004—2016年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,对服务业碳生产率进行测度,并对其演变轨迹与区域差异进行分析,在此基础上,系统考察中国服务业碳生产率的空间收敛性。研究表明:①中国服务业碳生产率在整体上呈逐年增长态势,且呈现从东到西逐次递减的格局。②中国服务业碳生产率存在正向空间自相关关系,并且空间自相关程度表现出波动上升趋势。③全国与西部服务业碳生产率均不存在σ收敛,即服务业碳生产率的地区差异并未随着时间的推移而缩小;东、中部服务业碳生产率则在整体上呈现σ收敛特征。全国以及东、中、西部服务业碳生产率均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,即服务业碳生产率落后地区对发达地区存在"追赶效应",各地区服务业碳生产率最终向自身的稳态水平趋同;空间效应加快了全国与东部服务业碳生产率的β收敛速度。④人均服务业增加值增长速度、部门结构以及能源消费结构对服务业碳生产率具有显著的负向效应,人力资本则对服务业碳生产率产生了显著的正向影响。据此,本文的政策启示如下:①重视服务业碳排放问题,构建服务业低碳绩效评估体系。②探索建立定期会商制度,加强服务业低碳技术的跨区域交流合作。③完善基础设施,促进要素空间互动和优化重组。④调整服务业能源结构与部门结构,推进人力资本积累和服务业稳增长。     

长江经济带全要素碳生产率的时空演化及提升潜力

将碳排放引入全要素生产率分析框架之中,利用Malmquist指数对长江经济带2000~2013年的全要素碳生产率进行测算。实证研究结果显示:(1)从时间维度来看,在此期间长江经济带碳生产率一直处于震荡上升的趋势,而全要素碳生产率处于较平稳的状态,年均增长率为2%;(2)从空间差异来看,长江经济带上中下游碳生产率区域差异明显,下游中游上游,全要素碳生产率下游区域高于中上游区域,而中游区域和上游区域则处于"追赶-超越-被反超"的状态;(3)上游区域全要素碳生产率增长的动力为技术效率的提高,中游区域全要素碳生产率平均下降了0.1%的原因为技术进步恶化的幅度已经完全抵消了技术效率提升带来的变化,下游区域主要是通过技术创新推动最优生产前沿向外移动使得全要素碳生产率平均增长了4.4个百分点;(4)安徽和贵州两地碳生产率提高的空间最大,而云南、四川和重庆地区也可通过技术进步、技术创新促进碳生产率的提高,上海、浙江、江苏和江西的碳生产率提升空间最小。     

中国旅游业碳生产率区域差异及其格局演变:1995—2014

利用"自下而上"法核算1995—2014年中国大陆30个省(市、区)旅游业碳生产率,采用标准差、变异系数等指标衡量旅游业碳生产率区域差异,并通过空间自相关分析探讨中国旅游业碳生产率区域差异格局演变特征。结果表明:1995—2014年中国旅游业碳生产率总体呈增长趋势,但增长幅度不大,其年均增长率为2.07%,旅游业碳生产率具体数值由1995年的1.120 1万元/t增长至2014年的1.653 0万元/t;旅游业碳生产率区域差异明显,但区域绝对差异和区域相对差异均逐步缩小;旅游业碳生产率空间分布不均,总体呈东高西低的空间格局;旅游业碳生产率的空间分布存在显著正空间自相关性,以及局部的不连续性;旅游业高碳生产率集聚区域主要分布在华北地区,以北京、天津、河北为主要代表;旅游业低碳生产率集聚区域主要分布在西北地区,以新疆、青海和陕西为主要代表;中国旅游业碳生产率整体水平较低,多数省区位于旅游业低碳生产率行列,研究期内旅游业低碳生产率的区域重心逐渐由西部向中部转移。基于上述结论,本文提出针对性建议:政府应制定低碳旅游相关的系列标准规范、行动方案以及保障性政策等,同时应加大对先进低碳技术和低碳设备的引进与推广;各省区应秉持低碳发展理念并将其融入目的地开发与管理之中;旅游企业应积极利用新能源、新材料和新技术,研发低碳旅游系列产品与服务;加大宣传生态环保理念,引导旅游者树立低碳旅游意识,优先选择低碳旅游景区和低碳出行方式,自觉抵制高碳排旅游活动。     

Elements of Carbon Balance in Oligotrophic Bogs

Elements of carbon balance of oligotrophic bogs were studied using an example of the landscape profile of the Klyuch River in 1998–2000. Carbon balance was preliminarily calculated taking into account the biological productivity, release of carbon dioxide and methane, and carbon outflow with bog waters. Based on the data obtained on the carbon inflow and outflow, the conclusion was made concerning the progressive peat formation in the region studied.     

强“波特假说”存在产业异质性吗?——基于产业碳密集程度细分的视角

强"波特假说"认为严格而恰当的环境规制政策将使企业的生产效率呈现先降后升的趋势,为验证强"波特假说"及其产业异质性,首先建立产业碳密集指数,将工业部门36个细分行业划分为高碳密集产业、中碳密集产业和低碳密集产业;接着运用方向性距离函数测算2003—2014年细分行业的绿色全要素生产率,基于系统"GMM"估计方法验证三个细分行业的环境规制强度对绿色全要素生产率的影响。研究结果显示:第一,样本期间内,高碳密集产业的环境规制强度远远高于中低碳密集产业,这表明高碳密集产业一直是产业节能减排的重点对象,而碳排放情况较为严重的中碳密集产业则为"被遗忘的角落";第二,强"波特假说"在工业部门内存在产业异质性,高碳密集产业和中碳密集产业的环境规制强度与绿色全要素生产率呈"U"型关系,而在低碳密集产业中两者则呈倒"U"型关系;第三,相对于高碳密集产业,中碳密集产业因环境规制强度较容易跨越"U"型拐点而具有较大的减排空间,低碳密集产业在达到"U"型拐点之前,环境规制为其绿色全要素生产率提升的动力。本文研究结论蕴含如下的政策建议:根据产业的碳密集程度实施针对性的环境规制政策,持续加强中碳密集产业的环境规制力度,适度加强低碳密集产业的环境规制强度,高碳密集产业需根据不同阶段的经济水平设计具有针对性的环境规制政策,逐渐将三类产业的"遵循成本"效应转化为"创新补偿"效应,实现经济增长和环境保护的双赢。     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

碳排放权交易机制能否兼顾企业效益与绿色效率?

基于碳减排治理全球变暖的碳排放权交易机制,探讨了碳交易能否兼顾企业效益与绿色效率,及企业减碳优化策略。通过匹配2006—2017年中国上市公司及所在地区数据,首先运用双重差分方法,总体衡量碳交易对企业要素投入产出及全要素生产率的影响。然后运用平行趋势、滞后两期、工具变量及安慰剂,检验碳交易双效模型的稳健性,并利用三重差分检验是否存在因企业性质不同而造成差异化影响。最后运用中介与调节效应方法,检验碳交易与全要素生产率的中介效应,并考察了绿色创新、市场化与政府补贴影响下有调节的中介作用。实证结果显示:碳交易对绿色全要素生产率、企业全要素生产率均有显著负向影响。碳交易促进碳减排,导致营业成本增加、劳动生产率降低,但同时也显著正向影响资本生产率,促进企业利润与收入增长。绿色全要素生产率在绿色创新、市场化和政府补贴显著的调节影响下,对碳交易与企业全要素生产率的关系起到部分中介作用。研究表明,碳交易在一定条件下能够实现绿色效率和企业效益双赢,碳交易的作用在于依次实现碳减排、企业全要素生产率提升和绿色全要素生产率提升,而绿色效率和企业效益协同尚处于“遵循成本”阶段。因此,要建立一套集市场化、政府奖惩和绿色创新为核心的碳交易体系,进一步健全绿色低碳的激励约束机制,加强绿色创新补偿,增强企业自主研发和协同创新能力,提升绿色技术转化率,优化绿色产业结构,完善配套环保标准和管理规范,诱导企业完成“创新补偿”的蜕变。     

China’s Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy:2006-2010

China achieved major progress in low-carbon development during the period of the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010). The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen prior to 2005 was reversed to a sharp decreasing trend, leading to a 19% decrease in energy intensity and 21% decrease in carbon intensity in five years. The enhanced energy efficiency, mostly due to efficiency improvement in power and manufacturing sector, is the major driver of the decrease in carbon intensity of the economy. The development of renewable energy, despite its impressive growth rate, played a minor role because of its small share in the energy mix of the country. Energy con-sumption and energy-related carbon emissions per unit of area in building continued to grow at a lesser rate, which, combined with the fast growth of total building volume, led to fast growth in total energy consumption and carbon emissions in the sector. Similar trend is observed in the transportation sector whose total energy use and carbon emissions continued to grow fast despite slight improvement in energy efficiency. Agricultural energy use experienced a slight change and forestry made a major contribution to carbon sinks. Policy and institutional innovations helped build a solid system of rules for low-carbon development. Improving cost effectiveness of the system remains a major challenge for the next five year plan period.     

“十一五”中国经济的低碳转型

“十一五”期间,中国的低碳发展取得了显著进展.此前能源强度和碳排放强度上升趋势得到有效逆转并大幅下降.电力和制造业是拉动能效上升和碳强度下降的主要部门；建筑部门内单位建筑面积能耗和CO2排放有所上升,但增速较“十五”而言明显放缓；交通部门内,各种运输方式的单位周转量能耗均有所下降,但高能耗交通模式高,部门总能耗和碳排放量上升明显;农业部门的能源消耗总量略有下降,单位增加值能耗下降明显；大规模造林大幅度提高了林业的碳吸收能力,使林业部门成为中国低碳发展的重要支柱.多项节能和可再生能源政策的出台及有效实施,为中国长远的低碳发展奠定了初步但实在的技术基础、物质基础和制度基础.作为一个发展中国家,中国的低碳发展呈现出碳排放总量上升、强度下降的基本特征.强有力的行政措施,使中国的低碳发展在短时间内取得了明显进展.由于政策手段单一,“十一五”期间政策实施尽管有效但成本很高,这也是“十二五”低碳发展政策制定与实施中应着力解决的重点问题.     

基于TFP的中部地区经济增长中自然资源贡献分析

运用Romer的内生经济增长模型和全要素贡献模型，对1988~2009年中部地区经济和自然资源进行面板数据分析，计算出各省自然资源要素和其他要素对经济增长的贡献值。结论显示：中部地区经济增长中自然资源生产率呈现出“能源主打，水土作衬；北煤南水，地异明显”的结构、空间特性；其他生产性要素中，资本、劳动力资源生产率对经济增长的贡献不相上下；而全要素生产率除湖北外都不及全国平均水平，中部6省的科技创新能力亟待提高。针对中部经济资源现状提出相应政策建议，认为中部地区应该在资源利用效率的提高、自主研发能力的推崇、各项人才的培养和产业优化的推动方面多做工作，推进低碳经济发展     

The Concept and Theoretical Implications of Carbon Emissions Rights Based on Individual Equity

Abstract

Climate change has become a hot topic in international environmental negotiations. For post-Kyoto international climate regime negotiations, many countries have proposed a variety of frameworks to share the emission reduction responsibilities and allocate carbon emission rights, and have tried to quantify the emission reduction obligations of all countries based on the perspectives of international equity and individual equity. In this paper, the authors have distinguished the concepts of carbon emissions rights based on these two perspectives respectively, have analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development, and have calculated and compared the proportion of cumulative emissions per capita of different countries in history and future, and then authors conclude that emission reduction obligations should be allocated based on each country’s conditions, including historical emissions, development stage, and future demands. Developed countries should take the initiative to significantly reduce their emissions because they have already accomplished their industrialization process. However, developing countries are still in the process of industrialization, which requires more emission rights to meet their development needs. For China, the concept of carbon emissions based on individual equity can be used as a theoretical tool for the allocating the international carbon emissions rights.     

中国城市化进程中的城市道路交通碳排放研究

探讨了中国城市化、经济发展、技术进步等与城市道路交通碳排放之间的长期均衡关系与动态作用机制,并对中国城市道路交通碳排放进行了预测和情景分析。结果表明:①城市化率、交通能源强度、城市居民消费水平和人均GDP对城市道路交通碳排放的长期均衡弹性分别为0.93、0.73、0.68、0.44;②城市道路交通碳排放的最大贡献者在中短期内是交通能源强度,长期内是城市化率;③人均GDP增长率的提高,短期内会促使城市道路交通碳排放增长率提高,而长期又有助于使之降低;④中国城市道路交通碳排放持续增长的趋势在相当长时期内不可避免;⑤不同的发展理念和政策与技术的组合,可以使城市道路交通碳排放发生重大变化。基于研究,提出了中国城市道路交通碳减排的政策取向。     

全要素生产率框架下的城市资本要素生产率分析

已有的文献基本上都是关注全要素生产率的研究,很少在全要素生产率的框架下识别每一种投入要素对经济增长的贡献和影响。本文在Chang et al 2012年提出的ISP方法的基础上,突破了其模型规模报酬不变的限制,采用投入导向的SBM模型对Luenberger生产率指数进行改进,在全要素生产率的框架下测算资本、劳动力和土地要素的生产率指数,识别每一种投入要素对全要素生产率的贡献和影响。经研究发现,城市全要素生产率变化主要是资本要素生产率驱动的,提升城市全要素生产率的关键是提升资本要素生产率。本文还从经济发展水平、城市规模、产业结构、市场化程度、人力资本积累、政府规模、投资率、财政科技支出、FDI、基础设施建设等多个方面分析了影响城市资本要素生产率的因素。研究结论主要有:11998—2013年间,中国城市全要素生产率累计下降了23.03%,其中资本要素生产率累计下降了60.71%,不同区域、不同层级、不同类型城市的资本要素生产率存在明显的差异;2城市规模、市场化程度、人力资本积累、FDI资本存量和投资率是影响城市资本要素生产率的主要因素,其中,规模较大的城市占据各方面的优势,能够更好地改进资本要素生产率。市场化的推进和人力资本积累有利于资本生产率的改进,符合经济发展的一般规律。FDI资本存量通过技术溢出效应和示范效应等能推进东道国技术进步和生产率提高;3投资率与资本要素生产率负相关,印证了Krugman随着投资率走高会出现资本边际报酬递减以及资本要素生产率下降的问题的观点;4第二产业占比与资本生产率正相关,而第三产业占比与资本生产率负相关,说明当前中国的居民消费结构层次总体上还比较低,强制推进二三产业间的结构升级只能造成供需结构匹配程度更低、愈加损失效率。短期内中国产业结构升级的方向应该为第二产业内部的调整升级。     

我国草地资源生产潜力分析及其可持续利用对策

本文分析了我国草地资源生产力的现状及区域分布特征 ,初步建立了草地资源生产潜力预测分析的方法 ,估算了各农业生态区草地资源的生产潜力 ,在此基础上提出了我国草地综合生产能力可持续发展的基本对策     

规模效率和技术进步对CO2排放影响的实证

本文利用DEA的方法从全要素生产率中分解出规模效率、技术进步和纯技术效率三个指标,然后基于1998-2008年的省际面板数据分析了不同地区的工业规模效率及技术进步对CO2排放影响的程度及差异化的原因.研究结果显示:从总体来看,技术进步对单位GDP的CO2排放有抑制作用,而规模效率则与CO2排放呈正向关系,但各个地区的情况不同,东中部地区的技术进步对单位GDP的CO2排放起到了抑制作用,东北地区和西部地区的技术进步则对单位GDP的CO2排放起到了促进作用；东中部地区的规模效率对单位GDP CO2排放的影响程度要远小于东部地区和西部地区；产生这些差异的原因可能是与我国区域间技术进步与规模效率所属的种类不同有关,东部地区的技术进步可能属于节能型技术进步,而西部地区则属于耗能型的技术进步；东北地区和西部地区规模效率的提升可能更多地依靠能源消耗,中东部地区则有所改善.     

Global estimates of soil carbon sequestration via livestock waste: a STELLA simulation

It has become increasingly well documented that human activities are enhancing the greenhouse effect and altering the global climate. Identifying strategies to mitigate atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions on the national level are therefore critical. Fossil fuel combustion is primarily responsible for the perturbation of the global carbon cycle, although the influence of humans extends far beyond the combustion of fossil fuels. Changes in land use arising from human activities contribute substantially to atmospheric carbon dioxide; however, land use changes can act as a carbon dioxide sink as well. A soil carbon model was built using STELLA to explore how soil organic carbon sequestration (SOC) varies over a range of values for key parameters and to estimate the amount of global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste. To obtain soil carbon sequestration estimates, model simulations occurred for 11 different livestock types and with data for eight regions around the world. The model predicted that between 1980 and 1995, United States soils were responsible for the sequestration of 444–602 Tg C from livestock waste. Model simulations further predicted that during the same period, global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste was 2,810–4,218 Tg C. Our estimates for global SOC sequestration are modest in proportion to other terrestrial carbon sinks (i.e. forest regrowth); however, livestock waste does represent a potential for long-term soil carbon gain. SOC generated from livestock waste is another example of how human activities and land use changes are altering soil processes around the world. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Decomposition of factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei,based on the perspective of terminal energy consumption

In order to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions in the region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and to explore the pathways to developing a low-carbon economy, this paper begins with the terminal energy consumption of three industries and residential consumption, and constructs an identical equation which is composed of population size, level of economic development, energy intensity, the proportion of energy consumption, energy structure, and the coefficient of carbon emissions. Based on the data of terminal energy consumption during 2000–2012, various factors are analyzed and their contribution is measured by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). The results show that the levels of population and economy have a positive driving effect while energy intensity, energy structure, and carbon intensity have a negative driving effect; the proportion of energy consumption had a negative driving effect prior to 2006, then changed to positive. Among suggestions for a low-carbon economy are controlling population size, improving the quality of economic development, supporting research into new energy technology, accelerating regional integration and optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing environmental protection and spreading the concept of a low-carbon economy.     

中国“十三五”时期省际碳减排目标的效率分配

首先,将"零和收益"的博弈思想引入到SBM模型中,构建了基于零和收益的碳减排SBM效率分配模型(ZSG-SBM)。然后,基于"十三五"规划中我国整体碳强度降低18%的减排约束,从经济增速和能源消费结构2个维度设置了"十三五"期间我国经济系统的4种发展情景,应用上述ZSG-SBM模型对碳减排目标进行了省际层面的效率分配。并通过对比各省经济发展现状和碳减排目标的分配结果,分析了各省的低碳经济发展路径。结果表明:采用ZSG-SBM模型对碳排放量进行效率分配后,30个省份的投入、产出指标实现了有效配置,碳排放效率到达效率前沿。政府基于"公平"导向的行政分配方案会造成一定程度的效率损失,基于ZSG-SBM模型的效率分配方案更符合低碳经济的长远发展要求。在碳强度约束的基础上,能源强度的再约束将迫使各省优化能源消费结构,从而提升我国整体碳排放效率。"十三五"时期,我国有16个省份的碳减排目标分配结果大于18%的平均标准,各省应根据自身资源禀赋、经济水平、产业结构和能源消费结构的现状选择差异的低碳经济发展道路。     

Carbon productivity convergence club and its initial conditions: China’s construction industry

A three-stage method is proposed to study the convergence clubs for the dynamic total factor carbon productivity (DCP) and the initial conditions. The first stage is to measure the DCP that reflects the initial difference. The second stage is to identify the convergence club of DCP. The last stage is to examine the initial factors that may affect the formation of the convergence club. Construction industry data from 30 provinces in mainland China from 2005 to 2016 were adopted to conduct an empirical study. The empirical results showed that (1) the arithmetic mean value of China’s provincial DCP showed an upward trend and the standard deviation showed an expanding trend. (2) There are five convergence clubs, but 13 provinces failed to converge to any club. (3) The higher the degree of construction industry marketization in 2005, the greater the probability that the provinces belong to a club with higher DCP. To improve the DCP, the effective diffusion of low-carbon construction technologies and the market-oriented reform of state-owned construction companies should be promoted. The three-stage method can also be applied to study different industries in different countries or regions.