Commentary: the challenge of quantifying susceptibility to drought-related crisis

This paper is a response to a recent special issue of Regional Environmental Change, “Quantifying vulnerability to drought from different disciplinary perspectives” (vol. 8, number 4, 2008). In this paper, we examine some of the challenges facing efforts to understand vulnerability to drought through quantification as they are manifest in some of the articles in this special issue.

A heuristic for setting effective standards to ensure global environmental sustainability

Most environmental professionals and decision-makers, and certainly the public at large, hold the view that the integrity of earth’s natural environment will be conserved for posterity and sustainable development achieved if all the nations rigorously enforced their environmental and emission standards. It is argued in this paper that this view, sincerely held by many as an “axiomatic truth,” is mistaken and misplaced. This is because as a biogeochemical entity the Earth has limited self-regenerative capacity (SRC) to cope with anthropogenic pollution, and all kinds of environmental problems ensue when that limit is exceeded. Indeed, mounting environmental problems now occurring on all fronts amply testify to the fact that the limit has already been exceeded. They also provide necessary and sufficient proof that environmental and emission standards have been woefully inadequate for protecting earth’s natural environment and life-support systems. It is argued that true global environmental sustainability will be achieved, paving the way to true global sustainable development, if and only if global environmental and emission standards are set so that global anthropogenic pollution does not exceed the limit of earth’s natural SRC to cope with such pollution. These and related issues are discussed in this paper. A simple mathematical model using basic mathematics is also presented to explain how the phenomenon of “positive feedback” works in some of the environmental problems to exacerbate environmental degradation and progressively to erode nature’s SRC.

Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective

By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD) provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal, and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.

Social determinants of soil and water conservation in rural Kenya

Soil erosion is a major environmental problem and threat to rural development in Kenya. Numerous attempts to address the problem have apparently had little success. There are however some districts that have been very successful, notably Machakos. In this study we search for the factors that determine successful development in soil conservation such as social capital, human capital and market integration. One of our main results is that social capital measures are significant determinants of investment in soil conservation. A better understanding of the relevant mechanisms is essential for developing policies targeting improvement in natural resource management.

A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.

Building sustainable & resilient communities: a balancing of community capital

Working toward sustainable community is a complex task for communities especially given the ambiguous nature of implementing the concept of sustainable development. However, by working to understand the nature of community capital, administrators can begin to move beyond bottom line thinking toward a more comprehensive and collective view of community. This paper presents a theoretical framework that helps municipal decision makers begin collecting information they need to help them build sustainable and resilient communities.

More aid, better institutions, or both?

It has been nearly 20 years since a working definition for “sustainable development” was put forward by the World Commission on Environment and Development. The concept endures in the mission statements and frameworks of action of various societal actors, including those of neighborhood associations, metropolitan development authorities, environmental ministries, and United Nations (UN) specialized organizations, to name a few. Yet many observers doubt that sustainable development is occurring in poor countries. This failure, the critics contend, stems from miserly transfers of foreign aid. The extent to which inadequate aid is to blame for poor environmental/developmental outcomes is an open question. But vocal demands for increasing aid to meet sustainable development goals come from many parts of society and are persistent. Exhortations for more aid to help poor countries are noble, perhaps even justifiable, but there are understandable doubts about the wisdom of transferring large capital and technical resources to countries that are slow to adopt needed institutional reforms. Aid without institutional reform is a recipe for wasted resources and donor fatigue. Worse, it may enhance inequities of wealth and power in recipient countries. There are few illustrations to draw on demonstrating how institutionally impoverished societies are affected when they are compelled to absorb massive aid inputs over a short period––a remedy suggested by some prominent aid experts. As a proxy, it is valuable to examine instances where swift macroeconomic changes, spurred by external investment and export-led growth, has occurred without significant institutional development. The case of Equatorial Guinea and its sudden oil riches is examined to discern whether, in the absence of meaningful institutional reform, rapid and profound increases in foreign direct investment and export income enable poverty alleviation and sustainable development.

Ten years of international scientific cooperation in fisheries,aquaculture and coastal zones: some preliminary lessons

The paper examines preliminary experiences with international scientific cooperation in fisheries, aquaculture and coastal zone issues through 90 projects in successive European Research Framework Programmes (FP4–FP6: 1994–2006). FPs had increasingly ambitious objectives in response to international commitments, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Millennium Development Goals, the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation and dialogue with partner regions. Sustainable aquatic food production in the context of respect for ecosystems was a central concern. Engagement with different social actors and attention to investment in education, people and institutions enabled uptake of research results in education, innovation and some impact. The emphasis in several recent projects on more integrated analyses and knowledge products in the public domain is an encouraging response to the growing crisis of aquatic resource systems. It is suggested that significant up-scaling will be required. This might be done through institutional internalisation and better translation of research results into policy developments supportive of transitions towards sustainable production systems and ecosystem rehabilitation. Capacity building to use research in novel ways and other enabling mechanisms need to be put in place to increase societal and environmental benefits of the research.

The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

Sustainable engineering education in the United States

Sustainable engineering is a conceptual and practical challenge to all engineering disciplines. Although the profession has experience with environmental dimensions of engineering activities that in some cases are quite deep, extending the existing body of practice to sustainable engineering by including social and cultural domains is a significant and non-trivial challenge. Nonetheless, progress is being made, as a recent study undertaken by the Center for Sustainable Engineering in the United States demonstrates.

Building a freshman-year foundation for sustainability studies: Terrascope, a case study

Terrascope is a freshman learning community at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in which teams of students work to find solutions to large ‘unsolvable’ problems and to communicate about those problems with a wide variety of audiences in multiple formats. The program strongly promotes students’ autonomy in focusing and structuring their work, and student projects culminate in public presentations, both to general audiences and to panels of technical specialists. Students who have completed the program tend to show strong engagement with environmental and sustainability issues, as well as the skills and experience to work intensively on such issues within multidisciplinary teams. Here, we present the program as a case study, with some discussion of the factors that are key to its operation.

Culture as trigger for sustainability transition in the water domain: the case of the Spanish water policy and the Ebro river basin

There is a mounting body of literature dealing generally with the dynamics of transitions of human systems towards sustainability and specifically with the different stages and processes of transitions. However, the question of why transition processes occur in the first place remains largely unexplained. This paper explores the concept of transition triggers, such as culture or material resource scarcity, and provides a theoretical framework to explain the emergence of a transition and its relation to recent developments in Spanish water policy. We adapt the general framework provided by current transition theory and gather empirical evidence and insights from processes occurring within the Spanish policy context and the Ebro river basin in particular. Our results show that the sole existence of biophysical limits to water use or development cannot explain the start of a possible sustainability transition in this domain in Spain. Changes in the existing water policies in the direction of sustainability were not ignited by people directly affected by water scarcities but by a coalition of sensitive agents, mostly from academia, NGOs and local constituencies, who managed to articulate new identities, integrate multiple sources of policy relevant knowledge, and develop new values under the umbrella of the new water culture movement.

The ecological footprint: an exhibit at an intergenerational trial?

This paper aims at assessing the extent to which the ecological footprint indicator (EF) can be regarded as an exhibit allowing an intergenerational trial about the use of natural resources. For that purpose, we examine various criticisms questioning the relevancy of EF measures for the study of environmental justice between generations. We explore the difficulties raised by the physical—and highly aggregated—nature of EF measures, as well as problems related to the number, the possible non-existence, and the tastes of future generations. The extent to which postulates on nature’s regeneration and technological progress affect the significance of EF studies is also discussed. It is concluded that those criticisms, by identifying various weaknesses of EF measures for the study of intergenerational justice, point to several crucial refinements of existing EF-based analyses.

Population, environment and poverty in Pakistan: linkages and empirical evidence

This study explores the interlinkages among population, environment and poverty and presents empirical evidence in a developing country like Pakistan. It gives alternative views on population environment linkages. It explains poverty trap, market based harmony, and dual effect of poverty on the basis of a link between population growth and natural resource degradation. In addition, the paper also highlights social and political instability through population-poverty-environment spiral. It also presents empirical evidence on population-environment-poverty nexus in Pakistan. It also compares environmental sustainability index and human development index for selected Asian countries. The paper also gives scores for different components of environmental sustainability index for Pakistan and compares these with India. The paper concludes that the causal relationship between poverty and environment works in both directions, often through changes in GDP and population. Population stress does not have any significant direct effect on all aspects of environmental status in Pakistan.

Policy sciences contributions to analysis to promote sustainability

The policy sciences, in offering the most comprehensive approach to policy analysis and the sociopolitical processes that shape policy outcomes, is particularly appropriate for guiding the analysis required to promote sustainability. This article presents the main components of the policy sciences framework and demonstrates its potency in the crucial task of deepening the problem definitions required to select and enact policies to promote sustainability. As such, it provides background for the policy sciences articles of this special feature.

Rice–wheat cropping cycle in Punjab: a comparative analysis of sustainability status in different irrigation systems

There is a general contention among scholars that first, wheat–paddy cropping pattern is largely responsible for declining ground water table in Punjab and secondly, that the wheat–paddy cropping system is becoming unsustainable over time as the yield levels of these two major crops are stagnating. However, the existing evidences do not throw adequate insight into the stage of groundwater depletion during which the wheat–paddy cycle becomes unsustainable. The paper strengthens the existing empirical base of sustainability status of this cropping cycle in Punjab. A comparison of irrigation systems in terms of both trends in yield and stability for wheat and paddy has been attempted to arrive at a holistic appraisal of sustainability aspects of crop specialization in Punjab. It is observed that the canal dependent irrigation system has performed better as compared to the overexploited groundwater irrigation system in terms of most of the parameters used in the study.

Motivation of Japanese companies to take environmental action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions: an econometric analysis

To analyze the motivations of Japanese companies to take environmental actions to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we used FY2006 research data and questioned Japanese industries regarding their reduction of GHG emissions. Empirical investigations revealed that voluntary targets set by industry organizations, government requirements, and advance responses to possible future regulations can positively influence environmental actions for GHG emission reduction; however, cost reductions and corporate social responsibility fulfillment cannot.

How developing countries can engage in GHG reduction: a case study for China

It has been clearly recognized that future global climate change will limit the possibilities for sustainable development in China. To minimize these negative effects, as a practical strategy, we suggest that the Chinese government engage in international cooperation as a key contributor in the prevention of global warming. This suggestion results from numerical estimations of China’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends accompanied with economic growth up to 2100. The results show that China’s gross domestic product (GDP), measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), may overtake the sum of the GDPs of the United States and Canada in 2020. It is predicted that GDP per capita may reach US$20,000 and $80,000 in 2050 and 2100, respectively; meanwhile, CO₂ emissions in China will increase from 6.6 billion tons (in carbon equivalent units) in 1990 to 54.6 billion tons in 2100. This means that the global peak concentration of GHG cannot be practically reduced without significant contributions from China. For international cooperation in mitigating global climate change, we introduce a new option, “per-capita emission restricted by assigned amount,” as an accounting rule for GHG reduction. This baseline classifies global CO₂ reduction actions into three categories: compulsory reduction, self-imposed reduction, and voluntary reduction. We suggest that China contribute to world CO₂ reduction according to the following timetable: voluntary reduction until 2012, self-imposed reduction until 2020, and compulsory reduction from 2020. The simulation results also indicate that China can benefit from this strategy in terms of improvements in its domestic economy and environment, for instance, by reducing fossil fuel consumption and the emission of pollutants.

Urban water-related environmental transitions in Southeast Asia

This article reviews water-related urban environmental conditions in Southeast Asia. It argues that the development of urban environmental challenges in the region follows a unique pattern compared with those experienced in the now developed world. The new pattern is defined by the so called time–space telescoping of the development process. The process of time–space telescoping reduces the levels of income at which environmental challenges emerge and forces their appearance in a simultaneous fashion, as sets of problems. During previous eras, cities experienced sequential environmental transitions. Urban water-related environmental burdens emerged on local scales and expanded geographically and temporally in impact, with growing levels of affluence. Moreover, certain environmental challenges appeared later in economic growth because the technologies and practices that induced these problems emerged at higher levels of income. The article has two main findings. First, except for wealthy urban centers, for example Singapore, cities in the region are experiencing multi-scaled water burdens simultaneously. Second, low-income and middle-income cities are experiencing burdens at lower levels of income than did their contemporaries in the north.