Modeling and Spatially Distributing Forest Net Primary Production at the Regional Scale

Abstract

Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon sequestration and total carbon sequestration potential under alternative management options. Changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could enhance or degrade that area’s ability to sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within a landscape change due to natural or anthropogenic processes, they may go from being a carbon sink to a carbon source or vice versa. Satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. The coupling of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data with a physiologically based forest productivity model (PnET-II) and historic climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot-based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program to obtain estimates of forest area and type and to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed-forest classes. The area information is used in an accuracy assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale. The map display of modeled net primary production (NPP) shows a range of forest carbon storage potentials and their spatial relationship to other landscape features across the southern United States. This methodology addresses the potential for measuring and projecting forest carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere of the southern United States.     

Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass

The 90,674 wildland fires that burned 2.9 million ha at an estimated suppression cost of $1.6 billion in the United States during the 2000 fire season demonstrated that forest fuel loading has become a hazard to life, property, and ecosystem health as a result of past fire exclusion policies and practices. The fire regime at any given location in these regions is a result of complex interactions between forest biomass, topography, ignitions, and weather. Forest structure and biomass are important aspects in determining current and future fire regimes. Efforts to quantify live and dead forest biomass at the local to regional scale has been hindered by the uncertainty surrounding the measurement and modeling of forest ecosystem processes and fluxes. The interaction of elevated CO2 with climate, soil nutrients, and other forest management factors that affect forest growth and fuel loading will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth and the distribution of species across the southern United States. The use of satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of forest carbon. The incorporation of Landsat Thematic Mapper data coupled with a physiologically based productivity model (PnET), soil water holding capacity, and historic and projected climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) project to obtain estimates of forest area and type to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed forest classes for use in an assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale for the southern United States. The displays of net primary productivity (NPP) generated from the PnET model show areas of high and low forest carbon storage potential and their spatial relationship to other landscape features for the southern United States. At the regional scale, predicted annual NPP in 1992 ranged from 836 to 2181 g/m2/year for evergreen forests and 769-2634 g/m2/year for deciduous forests with a regional mean for all forest land of 1448 g/m2/year. Prediction of annual NPP in 2050 ranged from 913 to 2076 g/m2/year for evergreen forest types to 1214-2376 g/m2/year for deciduous forest types with a regional mean for all forest land of 1659 g/m2/year. The changes in forest productivity from 1992 to 2050 are shown to display potential areas of increased or decreased forest biomass. This methodology addresses the need for spatially quantifying forest carbon in the terrestrial biosphere to assess forest productivity and wildland fire fuels.     

Methodology for estimating soil carbon for the forest carbon budget model of the United States, 2001

The largest carbon (C) pool in United States forests is the soil C pool. We present methodology and soil C pool estimates used in the FORCARB model, which estimates and projects forest carbon budgets for the United States. The methodology balances knowledge, uncertainties, and ease of use. The estimates are calculated using the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service STATSGO database, with soil dynamics following assumptions based on results of site-specific studies, and area estimates from the USDA Forest Service. Forest Inventory and Analysis data and national-level land cover data sets. Harvesting is assumed to have no effect on soil C. Land use change and forest type transitions affect soil C. We apply the methodology to the southeastern region of the United States as a case study.     

Estimating down deadwood from FIA forest inventory variables in Maine

Down deadwood (DDW) is a carbon component important in the function and structure of forest ecosystems, but estimating DDW is problematic because these data are not widely available in forest inventory databases. However, DDW data were collected on USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots during Maine's 1995 inventory. This study examines ways to predict DDW biomass from other FIA variables so that DDW could be estimated without tedious measurement. Our results include a regression model that predicts DDW as a function of stand size class, basal area of dead and cut trees, and dummy variables for forest type and forest industry ownership. We also found DDW similar to FIA's standing-tree mortality at a statewide scale.     

A Review of the Role of Temperate Forests in the Global CO2 Balance

The role of temperate forests in the global carbon balance is difficult to determine because many uncertainties exist in the data, and many assumptions must be made in these determinations. Still, there is little doubt that increases in atmospheric CO₂ and global warming would have major effects on temperate forest ecosystems. Increases in atmospheric CO₂ may result in increases in photosynthesis, changes in water and nitrogen use efficiency, and changes in carbon allocation. Indirect effects of changes in global carbon balance on regional climate and on microenvironmental conditions, particularly temperature and moisture, may be more important than direct effects of increased CO₂ on vegetation. Increased incidence of forest perturbations might also be expected. The evidence suggests that conditions favorable to forest growth and development may exist in the northern latitudes, while southern latitude forests may undergo drought stress. Current harvest of temperate and world forests contributes substantial amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, possibly as much as 3 gigatons (Gt) per year. Return of this carbon to forest storage may require decades. Forest managers should be aware of the global as well as local impact their management decisions will have on the atmospheric carbon balance of the ecosystems they oversee.     

Environmental Services Provided from Riparian Forests in the Nordic Countries

Riparian forests (RF) growing along streams, rivers and lakes comprise more than 2% of the forest area in the Nordic countries (considering a 10 m wide zone from the water body). They have special ecological functions in the landscape. They receive water and nutrients from the upslope areas, are important habitats for biodiversity, have large soil carbon stores, but may emit more greenhouse gases (GHG) than the uplands. In this article, we present a review of the environmental services related to water protection, terrestrial biodiversity, carbon storage and greenhouse gas dynamics provided by RF in the Nordic countries. We discuss the benefits and trade-offs when leaving the RF as a buffer against the impacts from upland forest management, in particular the impacts of clear cutting. Forest buffers are effective in protecting water quality and aquatic life, and have positive effects on terrestrial biodiversity, particularly when broader than 40 m, whereas the effect on the greenhouse gas exchange is unclear.     

Hurricane impacts on US forest carbon sequestration

Recent focus has been given to US forests as a sink for increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current estimates of US forest carbon sequestration average approximately 20 Tg (i.e. 10(12) g) year. However, predictions of forest carbon sequestration often do not include the influence of hurricanes on forest carbon storage. Intense hurricanes occur two out of three years across the eastern US. A single storm can convert the equivalent of 10% of the total annual carbon sequestrated by US forests into dead and downed biomass. Given that forests require at least 15 years to recover from a severe storm, a large amount of forest carbon is lost either directly (through biomass destruction) or indirectly (through lost carbon sequestration capacity) due to hurricanes. Only 15% of the total carbon in destroyed timber is salvaged following a major hurricane. The remainder of the carbon is left to decompose and eventually return to the atmosphere. Short-term increases in forest productivity due to increased nutrient inputs from detritus are not fully compensated by reduced stem stocking, and the recovery time needed to recover leaf area. Therefore, hurricanes are a significant factor in reducing short-term carbon storage in US forests.     

Carbon storage in northeast China as estimated from vegetation and soil inventories

We have estimated the stocks of carbon in vegetation and soil in northeast China based on data for 122 plots from the fourth national forest inventory, and for 388 soil profiles from the second national soil survey. The techniques of Geographic Information System (GIS) have been used to extrapolate site-specific estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon to the entire area of northeast China. Our estimate indicates that the amount of carbon in vegetation and soil for the region are 2.81 PgC (10(15) g C) and 26.43 PgC, respectively, and that the area weighted average density of vegetation and soil organic carbon are 22.7 MgC/ha and 212.7 MgC/ha, respectively. The eastern and northern parts of the region show much higher carbon storage than the rest of the region. Substantial spatial variations in vegetation and soil organic carbon across northeast China suggest that regional estimates on carbon stocks and fluxes should take into account these spatial variations. We suggest that the methodology developed can be used for the entire nation of China as well as other regions of the world.     

Comparison of regression coefficient and GIS-based methodologies for regional estimates of forest soil carbon stocks

Estimates of forest soil organic carbon (SOC) have applications in carbon science, soil quality studies, carbon sequestration technologies, and carbon trading. Forest SOC has been modeled using a regression coefficient methodology that applies mean SOC densities (mass/area) to broad forest regions. A higher resolution model is based on an approach that employs a geographic information system (GIS) with soil databases and satellite-derived landcover images. Despite this advancement, the regression approach remains the basis of current state and federal level greenhouse gas inventories. Both approaches are analyzed in detail for Wisconsin forest soils from 1983 to 2001, applying rigorous error-fixing algorithms to soil databases. Resulting SOC stock estimates are 20% larger when determined using the GIS method rather than the regression approach. Average annual rates of increase in SOC stocks are 3.6 and 1.0 million metric tons of carbon per year for the GIS and regression approaches respectively.     

Can greening of aquaculture sequester blue carbon?

Globally, blue carbon (i.e., carbon in coastal and marine ecosystems) emissions have been seriously augmented due to the devastating effects of anthropogenic pressures on coastal ecosystems including mangrove swamps, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows. The greening of aquaculture, however, including an ecosystem approach to Integrated Aquaculture-Agriculture (IAA) and Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) could play a significant role in reversing this trend, enhancing coastal ecosystems, and sequestering blue carbon. Ponds within IAA farming systems sequester more carbon per unit area than conventional fish ponds, natural lakes, and inland seas. The translocation of shrimp culture from mangrove swamps to offshore IMTA could reduce mangrove loss, reverse blue carbon emissions, and in turn increase storage of blue carbon through restoration of mangroves. Moreover, offshore IMTA may create a barrier to trawl fishing which in turn could help restore seagrasses and further enhance blue carbon sequestration. Seaweed and shellfish culture within IMTA could also help to sequester more blue carbon. The greening of aquaculture could face several challenges that need to be addressed in order to realize substantial benefits from enhanced blue carbon sequestration and eventually contribute to global climate change mitigation.     

Pools and fluxes of organic matter in a boreal landscape: implications for a safety assessment of a repository for nuclear waste

To provide information necessary for a license application for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co is carrying out site investigations, including extensive studies of different parts of the surface ecosystems, at two sites in Sweden. Here we use the output from detailed modeling of the carbon dynamics in the terrestrial, limnic and marine ecosystems to describe and compare major pools and fluxes of organic matter in the Simpevarp area, situated on the southeast coast of Sweden. In this study, organic carbon is used as a proxy for radionuclides incorporated into organic matter. The results show that the largest incorporation of carbon into living tissue occurs in terrestrial catchments. Carbon is accumulated in soil or sediments in all ecosystems, but the carbon pool reaches the highest values in shallow near-land marine basins. The marine basins, especially the outer basins, are dominated by large horizontal water fluxes that transport carbon and any associated contaminants into the Baltic Sea. The results suggest that the near-land shallow marine basins have to be regarded as focal points for accumulation of radionuclides in the Simpevarp area, as they receive a comparatively large amount of carbon as discharge from terrestrial catchments, having a high NPP and a high detrital accumulation in sediments. These focal points may constitute a potential risk for exposure to humans in a future landscape as, due to post-glacial land uplift, previous accumulation bottoms are likely to be used for future agricultural purposes.     

Influence of ozone pollution and climate variability on net primary productivity and carbon storage in China's grassland ecosystems from 1961 to 2000

Our simulations with the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) indicate that the combined effect of ozone, climate, carbon dioxide and land use have caused China's grasslands to act as a weak carbon sink during 1961-2000. This combined effect on national grassland net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage was small, but changes in annual NPP and total carbon storage across China's grasslands showed substantial spatial variation, with the maximum total carbon uptake reduction of more than 400gm(-2) in some places of northeastern China. The grasslands in the central northeastern China were more sensitive and vulnerable to elevated ozone pollution than other regions. The combined effect excluding ozone could potentially lead to an increase of 14Tg C in annual NPP and 0.11Pg C in total carbon storage for the same time period. This implies that improvement in air quality could significantly increase productivity and carbon storage in China's grassland ecosystems.     

Revised estimates of construction activity and emissions: Effects on ozone and elemental carbon concentrations in southern California

Emissions from diesel-powered construction equipment are an important source of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particulate matter (PM). A new emission inventory for construction equipment emissions is developed based on surveys of diesel fuel use; the revised inventory is compared to current emission inventories. California's OFFROAD model estimates are 4.5 and 3.1 times greater, for NO_x and PM respectively, than the fuel-based estimates developed here. The most relevant uncertainties are the overall amount of construction activity/diesel fuel use, exhaust emission factors for PM and NO_x, and the spatial allocation of emissions to county level and finer spatial scales. Construction permit data were used in this study to estimate spatial distributions of emissions; the resulting distribution is well correlated with population growth. An air quality model was used to assess the impacts of revised emission estimates. Increases of up to 15 ppb in predicted peak ozone concentrations were found in southern California. Elemental carbon and fine particle mass concentrations were in better agreement with observations using revised emission estimates, whereas negative bias in predictions of ambient NO_x concentrations increased.     

Carbon exchange between ecosystems and atmosphere in the Czech Republic is affected by climate factors

By comparing five ecosystem types in the Czech Republic over several years, we recorded the highest carbon sequestration potential in an evergreen Norway spruce forest (100%) and an agroecosystem (65%), followed by European beech forest (25%) and a wetland ecosystem (20%). Because of a massive ecosystem respiration, the final carbon gain of the grassland was negative. Climate was shown to be an important factor of carbon uptake by ecosystems: by varying the growing season length (a 22-d longer season in 2005 than in 2007 increased carbon sink by 13%) or by the effect of short- term synoptic situations (e.g. summer hot and dry days reduced net carbon storage by 58% relative to hot and wet days). Carbon uptake is strongly affected by the ontogeny and a production strategy which is demonstrated by the comparison of seasonal course of carbon uptake between coniferous (Norway spruce) and deciduous (European beech) stands.     

Soil carbon dynamics in cropland and rangeland

Most soils in the Midwestern USA have lost 30 to 50% of their original pool, or 25 to 40 Mg C/ha, upon conversion from natural to agricultural ecosystems. About 60 to 70% of the C thus depleted can be resequestered through adoption of recommended soil and crop management practices. These practices include conversion from plow till to no till, frequent use of winter cover crops in the rotation cycle, elimination of summer fallow, integrated nutrient management along with liberal use of biosolids and biological nitrogen fixation, precision farming to minimize losses and enhance fertilizer use efficiency, and use of improved varieties with ability to produce large root biomass with high content of lignin and suberin. The gross rate of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration ranges from 500 to 800 kg/ha/year in cold and humid regions and 100 to 300 kg/ha/year in dry and warm regions. The rate of SOC sequestration can be measured with procedures that are cost effective and credible at soil pedon level, landscape level, regional or national scale. In addition to SOC, there is also a large potential to sequester soil inorganic carbon (SIC) in arid and semi-arid regions. Soil C sequestration has numerous ancillary benefits. It is truly a win-win situation: extremely cost-effective, and a bridge to the future until alternative energy options take effect.     

Carbon storage and sequestration by urban trees in the USA

Based on field data from 10 USA cities and national urban tree cover data, it is estimated that urban trees in the coterminous USA currently store 700 million tonnes of carbon ($14,300 million value) with a gross carbon sequestration rate of 22.8 million tC/yr ($460 million/year). Carbon storage within cities ranges from 1.2 million tC in New York, NY, to 19,300 tC in Jersey City, NJ. Regions with the greatest proportion of urban land are the Northeast (8.5%) and the southeast (7.1%). Urban forests in the north central, northeast, south central and southeast regions of the USA store and sequester the most carbon, with average carbon storage per hectare greatest in southeast, north central, northeast and Pacific northwest regions, respectively. The national average urban forest carbon storage density is 25.1 tC/ha, compared with 53.5 tC/ha in forest stands. These data can be used to help assess the actual and potential role of urban forests in reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide, a dominant greenhouse gas.     

Impact of soil movement on carbon sequestration in agricultural ecosystems

Recent modeling studies indicate that soil erosion and terrestrial sedimentation may establish ecosystem disequilibria that promote carbon (C) sequestration within the biosphere. Movement of upland eroded soil into wetland systems with high net primary productivity may represent the greatest increase in storage capacity potential for C sequestration. The capacity of wetland systems to capture sediments and build up areas of deposition has been documented as well as the ability of these ecosystems to store substantial amounts of C. The purpose of our work was to assess rates of sediment deposition and C storage in a wetland site adjacent to a small first-order stream that drains an agricultural area. The soils of the wetland site consist of a histosol buried by sediments from the agricultural area. Samples of deposited sediments in the riparian zone were collected in 5 cm increments and the concentration of 137Cs was used to determine the 1964 and 1954 deposition layers. Agricultural activity in the watershed has caused increased sediment deposition to the wetland. The recent upland sediment is highly enriched in organic matter indicating that large amounts of organic C have been sequestered within this zone of sediment deposition. Rates of sequestration are much higher than rates that have occurred over the pre-modern history of the wetland. These data indicate the increased sedimentation rates in the wetland ecosystem are associated with increased C sequestration rates.     

Forest inventory and analysis: a national inventory and monitoring program

Forests provide significant commodity and noncommodity values to the citizens of the United States. An important and substantial role in ensuring the continued health, productivity, and sustainability of these resources is a reliable and credible inventory and monitoring program. The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the US Forest Service has been monitoring and reporting on status, condition, and trends in the nation's forests for over 70 years and the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) program for the last 11 years. Recent legislation included in the 1998 Farm Bill, along with efforts to integrate inventory and monitoring networks to deliver Criteria and Indicators of Sustainable Forests, are redefining the role and operation of the recently integrated FIA and FHM programs. This paper provides a brief history and a look at new directions for the enhanced FIA Program.     

Evidence-Based Knowledge Versus Negotiated Indicators for Assessment of Ecological Sustainability: The Swedish Forest Stewardship Council Standard as a Case Study

Assessing ecological sustainability involves monitoring of indicators and comparison of their states with performance targets that are deemed sustainable. First, a normative model was developed centered on evidence-based knowledge about (a) forest composition, structure, and function at multiple scales, and (b) performance targets derived by quantifying the habitat amount in naturally dynamic forests, and as required for presence of populations of specialized focal species. Second, we compared the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification standards’ ecological indicators from 1998 and 2010 in Sweden to the normative model using a Specific, Measurable, Accurate, Realistic, and Timebound (SMART) indicator approach. Indicator variables and targets for riparian and aquatic ecosystems were clearly under-represented compared to terrestrial ones. FSC’s ecological indicators expanded over time from composition and structure towards function, and from finer to coarser spatial scales. However, SMART indicators were few. Moreover, they poorly reflected quantitative evidence-based knowledge, a consequence of the fact that forest certification mirrors the outcome of a complex social negotiation process.     

Pollution mitigation and carbon sequestration by an urban forest

At the beginning of the 1900s, the Canberra plain was largely treeless. Graziers had carried out extensive clearing of the original trees since the 1820s leaving only scattered remnants and some plantings near homesteads. With the selection of Canberra as the site for the new capital of Australia, extensive tree plantings began in 1911. These trees have delivered a number of benefits, including aesthetic values and the amelioration of climatic extremes. Recently, however, it was considered that the benefits might extend to pollution mitigation and the sequestration of carbon. This paper outlines a case study of the value of the Canberra urban forest with particular reference to pollution mitigation. This study uses a tree inventory, modelling and decision support system developed to collect and use data about trees for tree asset management. The decision support system (DISMUT) was developed to assist in the management of about 400,000 trees planted in Canberra. The size of trees during the 5-year Kyoto Commitment Period was estimated using DISMUT and multiplied by estimates of value per square meter of canopy derived from available literature. The planted trees are estimated to have a combined energy reduction, pollution mitigation and carbon sequestration value of US$20-67 million during the period 2008-2012.