Novel dimensionless index for physically based assessment of thermal refugia characterizes off-channel habitat on gravel bed river

In the Willamette River, OR, main channel temperatures can be too warm for cold water fishes, causing fish to concentrate in secondary channel features that provide thermal refugia. However, temperature regimes vary among and within features. Improved understanding of physical processes controlling thermal regimes is needed. This study developed a dimensionless index for assessment of thermal refugia on the upper Willamette River. The novel hyporheic insolation (HIN) index uses minimal field measurements to predict thermal refugia resulting from buffering. Continuous water temperature measurements at one side channel, eight alcoves, and six beaver ponds provided data to ground truth calculated ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ predictions. Water temperature records were first used to characterize stratification at sites. Calculation of the Richardson number, an index of stability, showed two well-mixed sites and 13 stratified sites. At stratified sites, calculated ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ values characterized the ratio of cooling flux from hyporheic discharge to heat flux from incoming solar radiation. As ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ increased, measured temperatures at sites decreased. Despite overall scatter, a logarithmic fit to bin-averaged ${ℍ}_{\text{in}}$ values showed R² = 0.91. Calculations suggest that secondary channel features characterized by stratification and cool hyporheic discharge can provide thermal refugia. Accordingly, the HIN index may serve as a practical tool grounded in physical processes governing temperature across a floodplain.     

Flooding and the interannual variability of hydrologic quantities in the Missouri River basin

The six mainstem reservoirs in the Missouri River basin (MRB) are managed mainly to prevent flooding from snowmelt and heavy rainfall, a goal for which the interannual variabilities of precipitation ($P$), evapotranspiration ($\mathit{ET}$), and surface air temperature ($T_{\mathrm{air}}$) are vitally important. We tested the hypothesis that under the expected higher variability owing to global climate change, the months with the highest contributions to the interannual variability of $P$, $\mathit{ET}$, and $T_{\mathrm{air}}$ in the MRB will remain unchanged and quantified likely temporal trends in these quantities. Using high-resolution, downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensemble data sets, we compared the multi-year ratio of monthly and annual interannual variability and temporal trends in $P$, $\mathit{ET}$, and $T_{\mathrm{air}}$ during 2011–2020 with three future decades. Results showed that the 6 months with the highest interannual variability in $P$ and $\mathit{ET}$ (April–September) are the same in all four decades. However, for $T_{\mathrm{air}}$, only 4 months (December–March) retain their status as highly variable throughout the four decades; September and October variability is exceeded by the variability in other months. This implies that, compared to $P$ and $\mathit{ET}$, the cyclical change in the probabilities of $T_{\mathrm{air}}$ in the MRB is less stable under future global climate change. This finding can be used to consider the need to alter existing strategies for reservoir release while minimizing the likelihood of aggravating flooding below the reservoirs.     

A 21st-Century perspective on snow drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), there is a deep reliance on seasonal snowpack for maintenance of water resources. The term “snow drought” has recently emerged to describe periods of anomalously low snowpack. Unique seasonal patterns in precipitation and temperature that drive snow drought can have distinct hydrologic signatures, and these relationships have not been carefully studied in the UCRB. Here we examine snow drought with a new classification scheme using peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and the ratio of basin-wide modeled peak SWE to accumulated (onset to peak) precipitation (SWE/P) that clusters snow drought years into three distinct groups—“warm,” “dry,” and “warm & dry”—that minimize within-group variance. Over the period 1916–2018, we identify 14 warm years ($\overline{P}$ = 160 mm; $\overline{\mathrm{SWE}/P}$ = 0.24), 24 dry years ($\overline{P}$ = 117 mm; $\overline{\mathrm{SWE}/P}$ = 0.35), and 21 warm & dry years ($\overline{P}$ = 94 mm; $\overline{\mathrm{SWE}/P}$ = 0.23). An elevation-based analysis reveals two distinct patterns: warm snow droughts see severe SWE reductions primarily at lower (<2600 m) elevations (65% at lower elevations, 37% overall), whereas “dry” scenarios exhibit a consistent reduction across all elevations (39% overall). Using naturalized streamflow data, we also differentiate snow droughts by their earlier streamflow timing and decreased peakedness (warm: 7 days, 2%; dry: 7 days, 2%; warm & dry: 13 days, 5%). This research provides new insights into snow drought patterns relevant for regional water management.     

Experimental investigation of wellbore integrity and CO2–brine flow along the casing–cement microannulus

Wellbore integrity is one of the key performance criteria in the geological storage of CO₂. It is significant in any proposed storage site but may be critical to the suitability of depleted oil and gas reservoirs that may have 10’s to 1000’s of abandoned wells. Much previous work has focused on Portland cement which is the primary material used to seal wellbore systems. This work has emphasized the potential dissolution of Portland cement. However, an increasing number of field studies (e.g., Carey et al., 2007), experimental studies (e.g., Kutchko et al., 2006) and theoretical considerations indicate that the most significant leakage mechanism is likely to be flow of CO₂ along the casing–cement microannulus, cement–cement fractures, or the cement–caprock interface.In this study, we investigate the casing–cement microannulus through core-flood experiments. The experiments were conducted on a synthetic wellbore system consisting of a 5-cm diameter sample of cement that was cured with an embedded rectangular length of steel casing that had grooves to accommodate fluid flow. The experiments were conducted at 40 $°$ C and 14 MPa pore pressure for 394 h. During the experiment, 6.2 l of a 50:50 mixture of supercritical CO₂ and 30,000 ppm NaCl-rich brine flowed through 10-cm of limestone before flowing through the 6-cm length cement–casing wellbore system. Approximately 59,000 pore volumes of fluid moved through the casing–cement grooves. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that the CO₂–brine mixture impacted both the casing and the cement. The Portland cement was carbonated to depths of 50–250 $\mu$m by a diffusion-dominated process. There was very little evidence for mass loss or erosion of the Portland cement. By contrast, the steel casing reacted to form abundant precipitates of mixed calcium and iron carbonate that lined the channels and in one case almost completely filled a channel. The depth of steel corroded was estimated at 25– $30\mu$m and was similar in value to results obtained with a simplified corrosion model.The experimental results were applied to field observations of carbonated wellbore cement by Carey et al. (2007) and Crow et al. (2009) to show that carbonation of the field samples was not accompanied by significant CO₂–brine flow at the casing–cement interface. The sensitivity of standard-grade steel casing to corrosion suggests that relatively straight-forward wireline logging of external casing corrosion could be used as a useful indicator of flow behind casing. These experiments also reinforce other studies that indicate rates of Portland cement deterioration are slow, even in the high-flux CO₂–brine experiments reported here.     

Petrochemicals from oil,natural gas,coal and biomass: Production costs in 2030–2050

Methane, coal and biomass are being considered as alternatives to crude oil for the production of basic petrochemicals, such as light olefins. This paper is a study on the production costs of 24 process routes utilizing these primary energy sources. A wide range of projected energy prices in 2030–2050 found in the open literature is used. The basis for comparison is the production cost per t of high value chemicals (HVCs or light olefin-value equivalent). A Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the ranking of production costs of all 24 routes with 10,000 trials of varying energy prices and CO₂ emissions costs (assumed to be within $0–100/t CO₂; the total CO₂ emissions, or cradle-to-grave CO₂ emissions, were considered). High energy prices in the first three quarter of 2008 were tested separately. The main findings are:

• •Production costs: while the production costs of crude oil- and natural gas-based routes are within $500–900/t HVCs, those of coal- and biomass-based routes are mostly within $400–800/t HVCs. Production costs of coal- and biomass-based routes are in general quite similar while in some cases the difference is significant. Among the top seven most expensive routes, six are oil- and gas-based routes. Among the top seven least expensive routes, six are coal and biomass routes.
• •CO₂ emissions costs: the effect of CO₂ emissions costs was found to be strong on the coal-based routes and also quite significant on the biomass-based routes. However, the effect on oil- and gas-based routes is found to be small or relatively moderate.
• •Energy prices in 2008: most of the coal-based routes and biomass-based routes (particularly sugar cane) still have much lower production costs than the oil- and gas-based routes (even if international freight costs are included).

To ensure the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the long-term, we suggest that policies for the petrochemicals industry focus on stimulating the use of biomass as well as carbon capture and storage features for coal-based routes.     

Effect of the effective stress coefficient and sorption-induced strain on the evolution of coal permeability: Experimental observations

Permeability is one of the most important parameters for CO₂ injection in coal to enhance coalbed methane recovery. Laboratory characterization of coal permeability provides useful information for in situ permeability behavior of coal seams when adsorbing gases such as CO₂ are injected. In this study, a series of experiments have been conducted for coal samples using both non-adsorbing and adsorbing gases at various confining stresses and pore pressures. Our observations have showed that even under controlled stress conditions, coal permeability decreases with respect to pore pressure during the injection of adsorbing gases. In order to find out the causes of permeability decrease for adsorbing gases, a non-adsorbing gas (helium) is used to determine the effective stress coefficient. In these experiments using helium, the impact of gas sorption can be neglected and any permeability reduction is considered as due to the variation in the effective stress, which is controlled by the effective stress coefficient. The results show that the effective stress coefficient is pore pressure dependent and less than unity for the coal samples studied. The permeability reduction from helium experiments is then used to calibrate the subsequent flow-through experiments using adsorbing gases, CH₄ and CO₂. Through this calibration, the sole effect of sorption-induced strain on permeability change is obtained for these adsorbing gas flow-through experiments. In this paper, experimental results and analyses are reported including how the impact of effective stress coefficient is separated from that of the sorption-induced strain on the evolution of coal permeability.     

Evaluation of large-scale CO2 storage on fresh-water sections of aquifers: An example from the Texas Gulf Coast Basin

Large-scale injections of CO₂ into subsurface saline aquifers have been proposed to remediate climate change related to buildup of green house gases in the atmosphere. The pressure buildup caused by such injections may impact a volume of the basin significantly larger than the CO₂ plume itself. In areas with hydrological settings similar to the Gulf Coast Basin, the perturbation of the flow-field in deep parts of the basin could result in brines or brackish water being pushed up-dip into unconfined sections of the same formations or into the capture zone of fresh-water wells. The premise of the current study is that the details of multiple-phase flow processes necessary to model the near field evolution of the CO₂ plume are not necessary to describe the impact of the pressure anomaly on up-dip aquifers. This paper quantitatively explores conditions under which shallow groundwater would be impacted by up-dip displacement of brines, utilizing an existing carefully calibrated flow model. Modeling an injection of water, arguably equivalent to 50 million tons of CO₂/year for 50 years resulted in an average water-table rise of 1 m, with minor increase in stream baseflow and larger increase in ground water evapotranspiration, but no significant change in salinity.     

Testing of hydrotalcite-based sorbents for CO2 and H2S capture for use in sorption enhanced water gas shift

The feasibility of the sorption enhanced water gas shift (SEWGS) process under sour conditions is shown. The sour-SEWGS process constitutes a second generation pre-combustion carbon capture technology for the application in an IGCC. As a first critical step, the suitability of a K₂CO₃ promoted hydrotalcite-based CO₂ sorbent is demonstrated by means of adsorption and regeneration experiments in the presence of 2000 ppm H₂S. In multiple cycle experiments at 400 °C and 5 bar, the sorbent displays reversible co-adsorption of CO₂ and H₂S. The CO₂ sorption capacity is not significantly affected compared to sulphur-free conditions. A mechanistic model assuming two different sites for H₂S interaction explains qualitatively the interactions of CO₂ and H₂S with the sorbent. On the type A sites, CO₂ and H₂S display competitive sorption where CO₂ is favoured. The type B sites only allow H₂S uptake and may involve the formation of metal sulphides. This material behaviour means that the sour-SEWGS process likely eliminates CO₂ and H₂S simultaneously from the syngas and that an almost CO₂ and H₂S-free H₂ stream and a CO₂ + H₂S stream can be produced.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Zimbabwe revisited: fresh evidence from Maki cointegration

This study explores the relationship between electricity consumption, real gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions in Zimbabwe. To achieve this, the study set off by examining the stationarity properties of the variables under review with the Zivot-Andrews (1992 Zivot, E., and D.W.K. Andrews. 1992. Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal Of Business and Economic Statistics 10:251-270. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1391541.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) unit root test that accounts for a single structural break. Subsequently, Maki (2012 Maki, Daiki. 2012. “Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks.” Economic Modelling 29 (5): 2011–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2012.04.022 [Google Scholar]) cointegration test, which accounts for multiple structural breaks, is applied for equilibrium relationship between the variables under review while the long run regression of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) is employed for long-run coefficients as estimation procedures. In order to account for the direction of causality flow, the Toda-Yamamoto (1995 Toda, H Y.., and Taku Yamamoto. 1995. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal Of Econometrics 66 (1–2):225–50. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) causality test is used for annual frequency data set spanning from 1971–2014. Empirical evidence from the Maki cointegration test shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and real gross domestic product per capita over the sampled period. The long-run regression suggests that there exist a positive statistically significant relationship between real income and electricity consumption. Thus, corroborating the electricity-led growth hypothesis. This result is supported by the causality test, as one-way causality is observed running from electricity consumption to real gross domestic product. Thus, this is suggestive to government administrators and policymakers that the Zimbabwean economy is electricity dependent. However, there is a tradeoff for environmental quality. As the increase in electricity consumption increases carbon dioxide emissions. The need for diversification of Zimbabwe energy portfolio to cleaner and environmentally friendly energy sources is recommended, given the world global consciousness for cleaner energy consumption.