Informing global environmental policy‐making: A plea for new methods of assessment and synthesis

Practice and research in assessment of global environmental change are dominated by two conventional assessment methods, formal models and expert panels. Models construct a representation of biophysical and socioeconomic components of a policy issue, to project future trends or consequences of interventions. Panels articulate consensus views of policyrelevant knowledge through deliberations among selected experts. These methods make valuable contributions, but are weak in addressing certain kinds of knowledge needs that are typical of globalchange issues. To address these needs, a set of novel assessment methods is proposed that combine elements of representation and deliberation. These methods, of which policy exercises, simulationgaming, and scenario exercises are examples, involve human participants in structured relevant decision and task settings. Relative to models and panels, these methods can more readily incorporate diverse perspectives, can integrate across broader collections of knowledge domains, and can both encourage creative insights and innovations, and provide tests of their relevance and practicality. Risks of bias, and of overconfident generalization from unique experiences, are effectively mitigated by critical debriefings, and appear no more severe than corresponding risks in conventional assessment methods, or in policymakers generalizations from historical experience. While serious development and implementation challenges remain, early experience suggests that these methods can offer useful ideas and insights for policymaking that are not available through other means.     

On stabilizing CO2 concentrations – cost‐effective emission reduction strategies

With the adoption of the Berlin Mandate, developed countries are being asked to set emission limits for the early decades of the next century. The size of the reductions is currently the subject of international negotiations. This paper is intended to contribute to the analysis and assessment phase leading up to the adoption of new targets and timetables. However, we take a somewhat different approach than that suggested by the Berlin Mandate. Rather than focus exclusively on the next steps by developed countries, we view the issue from the perspective of the Convention's ultimate objective, the stabilization of atmospheric concentrations. We examine what might constitute costeffective strategies for limiting CO₂ concentrations to alternative levels. We then explore the implications for nearterm mitigation decisions and for longterm participation by the developing countries.     

Impacts of ocean CO2 disposal on marine life: II. Probabilistic plume exposure model used with a time‐varying dose‐response analysis

A method to evaluate aquatic mortality given a pollutant distribution is presented and applied to several sample low pH plumes representing various ocean CO₂ disposal schemes. The method is an improvement over current analysis because it integrates the mortality due to timevarying exposure to low pH with the probabilistic experiences of passive organisms subject to turbulent lateral diffusion as they pass through the plume. For the examples presented, the plume was discretized laterally into lanes and longitudinally by time steps, and a random walk model accounting for the scaledependent nature of relative diffusion was used to simulate the organism pathways over one time step. From these simulations, the probability that an organism will be in a given lane, , one time step after it starts from an initial lane, , was determined for all combinations of and . These probabilities were used to find the number of organisms following each of the possible pathways, and the mortality to the organisms due to their time varying exposure to low pH was determined by using the toxicity model described in part I of this paper. The integrated method allows the impact of the plume to be described in terms of total organism mortality as well as spatial deficit of organisms.     

An Analysis with the CERT Model of the FSU Market Power in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market

This paper aims to assess the consequences of the amendments made to the Kyoto Protocol during COP 7 in Marrakech. The major issue of hot air and CDM transaction costs is examined using the CERT model to show that primary supply regions, typically those with hot air availability, might control the emissions reduction permit supply market and maximise net export revenues of permit supply by withholding 40 to 60% of available hot air credits. The assumption that primary permit suppliers control permit price via a restriction of hot air supply to the market will inadvertently leave a portion of the market share open to non-Annex B CDM supply, despite potentially extreme variance in CDM transaction costs. A summary table of policy implications on the emissions reduction permit market is also included.     

Respiratory Suspended Particulate (RSP) Concentration and its Implications to Roadside Workers: A Case Study of Hong Kong

The adsorption behaviour of Diphenylamine (DPAM), napthylamine ( NAM), napthylamine ( NAM)and aniline on pyrolusite and activated carbon has been studied.Pyrolusite shows remarkable sorption capacity for DPAM and NAM as compared to aniline; (the adsorption followed theorder:Activated Carbon: DPAM = NAM > AnilinePyrolusite: DPAM: NAM > NAM> Aniline)The maximum adsorption of NAM occurred in theconcentration range 4–20 g mL^-1 on pyrolusite (95%)and 4–50 g mL^-1 on activated carbon (100%). Theeffect of various doses of activated carbon on the adsorption of NAM confirm Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms where asFreundlich isotherm is obeyed by pyrolusite. The adsorption of NAM on both the absorbents is not affected in presence ofDPAM over a wide range of their initial concentrations (20–60g mL^-1). The desorption studies of NAM onpyrolusite was carried out by batch as well as column processes.Excellent results were obtained when a mixture of n-hexane andisopropanol (91:1) was used as eluent.     

Insecticide Contamination of Jamaican Environment. V. Island-Wide Rapid Survey of Residues in Surface and Ground Water

Residues of organochlorines and organophosphates were determined by gas chromatography in water and sediment from 26 locations in 17 major rivers, 7 natural springs and 13 wells across Jamaica. Samples were collected on only one occasion between May and July, 1994. Residues of endosulfan were detected in all but three rivers; -endosulfan in 15 samples of sediment (0.9–108.1, mean = 28.93, S.E. = 7.198 g kg-1) and 13 of water (0.01–0.35, mean = 0.11, S.E. = 0.035 g L-1), -endosulfan in 5 sediment (15.29–49.35, mean = 30.56, S.E. = 7.132 g kg-1) and 12 water (0.05–0.31, mean = 0.14, S.E. = 0.031 g L-1) samples, and endosulfan sulphate in waters of three rivers (0.003–0.244 g L-1). Chlorpyrifos was present in 9 sediment (0.423-135.2, mean = 18.38, S.E. = 10.699 g kg-1) and two water (0.001–0.022 g L-1) samples, diazinon and ethoprophos in the sediment of one river each. Mean levels (g L-1) of and isomers and sulphate of endosulfan were 0.16 (S.E. = 0.057), 0.12 (S.E. = 0.036) and 0.15 (S.E. = 0.089), respectively, in four of the seven springs and 0.23 (S.E. = 0.052), 0.11 (S.E. = 0.029) and 0.26 (S.E. = 0.088), respectively, in seven of the thirteen wells monitored.     

Methane in ocean waters: Concentration and carbon isotope variability at East Pacific Rise and in the Arabian Sea

Methane concentrations and stable carbon isotope ratios of water samples from the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 21°S and the Arabian Sea (24°N, 65°E) have been determined. EPR surface water is in equilibrium (ca. 50 nl/L and –50<¹³CH₄<–46) with atmospheric methane. Deep background water has the signature of the remaining fraction of atmospheric methane partially oxidized in the water column by bacteria. Bottom near, hydrothermally influenced vent methane (>100nl/L and –30<¹³CH₄<–22) is detectable only close to the seep site. There is no input of hydrothermal methane into the atmosphere. EPR water is considered to be rather a sink than a source of atmospheric methane. Surface waters of the Arabian Sea are enriched in methane relative to the atmosphere (source for atmospheric methane). Carbon isotope ratios point to a bacterial origin of methane (¹³CH₄<–55) that is generated in the surface waters. Concentration changes and variations of carbon isotope ratios also suggest that methane seeping from the sea floor sediments of the Arabian Sea is oxidized by bacterial activity and does not reach the atmosphere.     

The effects of salinity,temperature and sediment on the toxicity of copper to juvenile Hediste (Nereis) diversicolor (O. F. Muller)

Without sediment, increasing salinity (7.3 to 29.2) and increasing temperature (12 to 22 °C) reduced the toxicity of copper to juvenile Hediste diversicolor. The LC₅₀ values ranged from 357 gL^-1 in 7.3 to 513 g L^-1 in 29.2 at 12°C and from 247 to 500 g L^-1 at 22°C. In deionized water all the juvenile were dead in all solutions to which copper was added (100 to 600 g L^-1). Dead worms were swollen and everted their pharynxs. In higher doses of copper (500 to 600 g L^-1) the worms were abnormal in behaviour in all salinities (0 to 29.2). The ability to swim or crawl was disturbed.With sediments increasing temperature and increasing salinity increased the toxicity of copper to the worms. The LC₅₀ values ranged from 3200 to 4100 g L^-1 at 22°C. The response of the juvenile to copper was antagonistic to increasing temperature and salinity and synergistic to increasing salinity and increasing temperature without and with the sediment respectively.     

A Metamodeling Approach for Integrated Assessment of Air Quality Policies

A method is proposed to build integrated models (also called Metamodels) aimed at quantifying the economic efficiency of air quality policies. This Metamodeling approach is based on the coupling of two complementary models, that operate at different scales in space and time, and which represent the economic and the physical and chemical processes, respectively. The joint consideration of the physico-chemical and techno-economic structure of the pollution control problems permits a comprehensive evaluation of air pollution abatement strategies. The motivating pollution control problems include urban-regional air quality management through efficient energy and traffic control policies. A pilot study, exploiting data collected in the Geneva canton (Switzerland), is used to demonstrate the potential of the approach.     

Characterization of atmospheric dust at Gurushikar,Mt. Abu,Rajasthan

The nature of atmospheric aerosols at Gurushikar, Mt. Abu, Rajasthan where a gamma ray telescope is to be installed, was investigated. Air particulate samples collected on filters were used to estimate the total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) and its elemental composition. The TSPM varied from 31 to 103 g/m³ during January to March 1994. The heighest loads were observed during the months of May and June (80–100 g/m³) and lowest during October (20–60 g/m³). The dust was also examined for size, shape and nature of the mineral matter. The particle sizes varied from 100 m to 5 m. The course particles (>50 m) are irregular shaped quartz grains. Some of the medium size (=50 m) particles were spherical and were highly conducting. These particles were rich in iron content. Correlation coefficients among various elements in the dust showed that it is made up of mainly two components-wind blown ground dust and particulate arising out of wood and coal burning.     

Comparative Studies on the Usefulness of Seven Ecological Indices for the Marine Coastal Monitoring Close to the Shore on the Swedish East Coast

The simultaneous behaviour of seven ecological indices(Hurlberts, Margalefs, Menhinicks, Shannons,species number, Jaccards and saprobic index) wasstudied based on phytoplankton data close to the shoreon the East coast of Sweden during the summer 1998.The sampling stations had a similar eutrophicationlevel and were located in bays. Standard phytoplanktondatabases were used in calculating the indices, whichwere later compared using cluster analysis.Hurlberts, Margalefs, Menhinicks, Shannons andspecies number indices, as measure of communitydiversity, produced similar trends which oftendiffered from those based on Jaccards index ofsimilarity. However, the simultaneous use of theseindices was found meaningful as a possible part of themonitoring close to the shore. The application of asaprobic index lead to erroneous conclusions in thestudied case.     

Excised Barley root uptake of several 14C labeled organic compounds

Many organic pollutants potentially are available for uptake by plants and thus bioaccumulation and food contamination. One method of studying uptake is with excised roots, a technique extensively used with plant nutrients. A similar method was developed and used to evaluate uptake patterns of several ¹⁴C-labeled organic chemicals. Uptake rate constants for the chemicals tested occurred in the following order: captan phenol > aniline > ethanol indole trifluralin propanil > 1,2,4-trichlorobenzene (TCB) > nitrobenzene atrazine > bromacil > simazine > monuron.     

Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.     

Routine Measurement of Dissolved Inorganic 15N in Precipitation and Streamwater

The difficulty of measuring 15N in dilute solutions has limited the potential of ecosystem labeling experiments and model comparisons. By concentrating the N from large (up to 20 L) water samples on ion-exchange resin columns, we obtained enough N for accurate and reproducible 15N measurement using the Teflon tape diffusion method. Analysis of standards demonstrated >95% recovery of inorganic N from samples, and 15N values comparable to those obtained using standard distillation methods. The value of the blank at our laboratory was 0.16 moles N. Analytical precision was within 2 15N when samples of streamwater from the Bear Brook Watersheds (1800 eq · ha-1 · yr-1 N addition at 192 15N) were kept frozen until analysis. The analytical process is lengthy, but once set up can easily be performed for large numbers of samples.     

A Survey of Trace Metals in Vegetation, Soil and Lower Animal Along Some Selected Major Roads in Metropolitan City of Lagos

The concentration of trace metals (Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) in a total of 144 samples of grass, soil and lower animal (earthworm, Lybrodrilus violaceous) were collected and analysed for their metallic content. Levels of cadmium ranged from 0.01–0.07 g g^–1; 0.01–0.12 g g^–1 and from trace–0.05 g g^–1 dry weight for plant, soil and animal samples respectively. Mean concentration of copper ranged 0.10–1.48 g g^–1; 0.10–2.90 g g^–1 and 0.01–0.08 g g^–1 for samples in similar order as above. The levels of Pb varied from 0.01–0.14 g g^–1; 0.02–0.23 g g^–1 and from trace–0.07 g g^–1 while that of Zn ranged from 0.19–1.80 g g^–1; 0.51–3.35 g g^–1and 0.01–0.08 g g^–1 also in the same order of samples as mentioned above. Levels of metals in soil samples were higher than the background levels with the exception of Zn but lower than European Union (EU) limits. The results generally revealed the presence of metals in plant and animal samples and metal dynamics up the food chain is highly possible. Acceptable recoveries of the spiking experiment validate the experimental protocol.     

The monitoring of cadmium,zinc and copper in the kidneys and liver of humans deceased in the region of Cracow (Poland)

Cadmium, zinc and copper levels were determined in the renal cortex and liver of 60 inhabitants of Cracow, Poland. Cadmium levels in the renal cortex were contained in broad limits of 5–176 g/g, mean 50.6 g/g (wet weight). Maximum levels were found in the age group of about 50–60 years. The levels were slightly higher in men (53 g/g) than in women (45 g/g), with no effect of location within the region. The levels in smokers (62 g/g) were much higher than in non-smokers (32 g/g). The above relations were less pronounced for cadmium levels in the liver. Whole body retention of cadmium followed the pattern of cadmium in renal cortex. The level of zinc in renal cortex reflected those of cadmium. A significant proportion of the population (54% in smokers, 9% in non-smokers) showed cadmium levels in renal cortex exceeding the reference level of 50 g/g recently accepted for general population. In the view of the authors the exposure to cadmium of the population of Cracow is excessive and calls for attention.The study was performed under a KBN grant No 40106 91 01.     

Environmental Contaminants in Blood, Hair, and Tissues of Ocelots from the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas, 1986–1997

The ocelot (Felis pardalis) isan endangered neotropical cat distributed within asmall range in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV), inTexas, U.S.A. Studies of the impacts of environmentalcontaminants in wild cats are few. Approximately onefourth of the estimated population (about 100) ofocelots in the LRGV was sampled to evaluate theimpacts of chlorinated pesticides, polychlorinatedbiphenyls, and trace elements on the population. Hairwas collected from 32 ocelots trapped between 1986–1992,and blood was collected from 20 ocelots trappedbetween 1993–1997. A few blood samples were obtainedfrom individuals recaptured two or three times. Tissue samples from 4 road-killed ocelots were alsoanalyzed. DDE, PCBs, and Hg were some of the mostcommon contaminants detected in hair and blood. MeanHg levels in hair ranged from 0.5 to 1.25 g g^-1 dw,Se from 1.5 to 3.48 g g^-1 dw, and Pb from 0.56 to26.8 g g^-1 dw. Mean DDE concentrations in plasma ranged from 0.005 g g^-1 ww to 0.153 g g^-1 ww, and PCBs ranged from 0.006 g g^-1 ww to 0.092 g g^-1 ww. Mean Hg levels in red blood cells rangedfrom 0.056 g g^-1 dw to 0.25 g g^-1 dw. Concentrations of DDE, PCBs, or Hg, did not increasesignificantly with age, although the highestconcentrations of DDE and Hg were found in olderanimals. Overall, concentrations of DDE, PCBs, and Hgwere low and at levels that currently do not pose anythreat to health or survival of the ocelot. This isfurther supported by good reproduction of the ocelotin the LRGV, where adult females averaged about 1.5kittens/litter. Thus, it seems that the current majorthreat to recovery of the ocelot in the LRGV may behabitat loss, although potential impacts of newgeneration pesticides, such as organophosphorus andcarbamate insecticides need further study.     

Trihalomethane Formation Potential and Concentration Changes During Water Treatment at Mumbai (India)

The treated water at the outlet oftreatment plants and representative servicereservoirs of Mumbai city have been evaluatedfor trihalomethane formation potential in1995–1996. Chloroform, dichlorobromomethane,chlorodibromomethane and bromoform have beenmonitored during monsoon, winter and summer.The levels of chloroform are found above theregulated WHO guideline value of 200 g L^-1 in final water during postmonsoon atGhatkopar (226 g L^-1), Malbar (210.3 g L^-1) and Tulsi (231.26 g L^-1).     

Determination of Endosulfans in Soil/Sediment Samples from Point Mugu, Oxnard, California Using Capillary Gas Chromatography/Mass Selective Detection (GC/MSD)

The extent of contamination by endosulfans in soil samples collected from the Point Mugu watershed near Oxnard, California was determined using capillary gas chromatography/mass selective detection (GC/MSD). The study was designed to detect three organochlorinated pesticides: endosulfan , endosulfan and endosulfan sulfate. Thirteen sets of two soil samples each were taken from various sites in the region. Our results show that the endosulfan levels in these soils range from trace amounts to nearly 30 ppm, with endosulfan being the most abundant and endosulfan sulfate the least. Two sites of the study, Hueneme and Revolon and Farm and Revolon, showed high amounts of endosulfans and , with concentrations between 20 and 30 ppm. The majority of the other sites studied in this research produced concentrations of less than 10 ppm for each of the three endosulfans monitored. At five areas in particular, Pleasant Valley and Creek, Laguna and Creek, Etting and Creek, Road and Creek and Hueneme and Creek, less than 2 ppm or only trace amounts of endosulfans , and sulfate were detected.     

Adaptation to What and Why?

Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century.Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.