Uncertainty in watershed response predictions induced by spatial variability of precipitation

Negligence to consider the spatial variability of rainfall could result in serious errors in model outputs. The objective of this study was to examine the uncertainty of both runoff and pollutant transport predictions due to the input errors of rainfall. This study used synthetic data to represent the “true” rainfall pattern, instead of interpolated precipitation. It was conducted on a synthetic case area having a total area of 20 km² with ten subbasins. Each subbasin has one rainfall gauge with synthetic precipitation records. Six rainfall storms with varied spatial distribution were generated. The average rainfall was obtained from all of the ten gauges by the arithmetic average method. The input errors of rainfall were induced by the difference between the actual rainfall pattern and estimated average rainfall. The results show that spatial variability of rainfall can cause uncertainty in modeling outputs of hydrologic, which would be transport to pollutant export predictions, when uniformity of rainfall is assumed. Since rainfall is essential information for predicting watershed responses, it is important to consider the properties of rainfall, particularly spatial rainfall variability, in the application of hydrologic and water quality models.     

Role of Geographic Information System (GIS) in Watershed Simulation By Winvast Model

The uncertainty of modeling input will increase the simulation error, and this situation always happens in a model without user-friendly interface. WinVAST model, developed by the University of Virginia in 2003, treats an entire multi-catchment by a tree-view structure. Its extra computer programs can connect geographic information system (GIS). Model users can prepare all the necessary information in ArcGIS. Extracting information from GIS interface can not only decrease the inconvenience of data input, but also lower the uncertainty due to data preparation. The Daiyuku Creek and Qupoliao Creek in the Fei-tsui reservoir watershed in Northern Taiwan provided the setting for the case study reported herein. The required information, including slope, stream length, subbasin area, soil type and land-use condition, for WinVAST model should be prepared in a Microsoft Access database, which is the project file of WinVAST with extension mdb. In ArcGIS interface, when the soil layer, land-use layer, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) map are prepared, all the watershed information can be created as well. This study compared the simulation results from automatically generated input and manual input. The results show that the relative simulation error resulting from the rough process of data input can be around 30% in runoff simulation, and even reach 70% in non-point source pollution (NPSP) simulation. It could conclude that GIS technology is significant for predicting watershed responses by WinVAST model, because it can efficiently reduce the uncertainty induced by input errors.     

The placement strategies of structural best management practices for different moving rainstorms

Hydrological responses and pollutant exports are always highly related to rainfall characteristics. Many studies have demonstrated that the influence of moving rainstorm on flows and mass transport process in hydrologic systems cannot be ignored. Best management practices (BMPs) are popularly applied for controlling water quantity and water quality in a watershed. Since the movements of rainstorm can influence watershed responses, BMP placement strategies should be suitably adjusted in different moving rainstorms. This study designed an intermediate rainfall pattern with varied movement behavior and tried to find the optimal BMP placement strategies, which cannot only satisfy environmental standards but also improve economic benefits, for the rainfall events. The result shows that the control efficiency of pollutant and runoff can highly improve when the BMPs are set near the outlet of a watershed. Since the economic efficiency is always regarded as an important factor, the BMP placement strategy is significant for watershed conservation and management.     

Characterizing Small Subbasins: A Case Study from Coastal Oregon

A fine-grained statisticaly robust probability sample of stream segments is used to compare two small (20,000 hectare) subbasins of the Tillamook watershed, north coastal Oregon. The two subbasins are matched with respect to several variables [size coastal climates], but vary in terms of geology and consequently land use. A total of 67 wadeable + non-wadeable sizes were identified for sampling in the two subbasins (combined) over two field seasons from a sampling universe consisting of the River Reach File 3 (blue lines on 1:100,000 maps). Target variables include an extensive array of physical habitat endpoints, selected water chemistry endpoints, species composition, and relative abundance of both benthic macroinvertebrates and fish. Field protocols generally followed those of the U.S. EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP).Eleven fish species were encountered, a typically low number for coastal Oregon streams. Exploratory analysis using nonmetric multidimensional scaling revealed that 92.4% of the variation in the fish assemblages could be explained with two ordination axes. Environmental factors related to stream size and substate were the most correlated to these axes. Further, stream segments for the two subbasins tended to map in different areas of species space. Therefore, we also give unweighted probability distributions for several of the factors that heavily on these two axes by subbasins, as well as probability distributions for chemical endpoints. Results from the subset of sites sampled during the first year (21 wadeable sites) reveal: 1) differences between samples from the two subbasins relates to dream size and substrate composition that are consistent with known differences in geology and land use, 2) unexpectedly minor differences between samples from the two subbasins for stream temperature, canopy cover, and dissolved oxygen, 3) differences between samples from the two subbasins for total P, and total N, possibly related to land use, and 4) unexpected differences in samples from the two subbasins for conductivity, probably related to geological factors. Sample size for each subbasin is low and therefore our samples cannot be taken to necessarily characterize either subbasin. However, our findings are consistent with a comprehensive assessment that had been previously produced for one of the two subbasins.All field work was completed in 8 weeks 3-person field crew. We conclude that rapid assessment protocols, based on probability samples at this level of resolution, can be a cost-effective approach to watershed analysis. This approach should be seen as a complement to, rather than a replacement for, systematic surveys that produced finer scale, reach specific information on factors such as channel complexity and cover relevant to in-stream restoration planning.     

Nonpoint Source Pollution Assessment of Wujiang RiverWatershed in Guizhou Province,SW China

The amount of pollution from nonpoint sources flowing in the streams of the Wujiang River watershed in Guizhou Province, SW China, is estimated by a geographic information system (GIS)-based method using rainfall, surface runoff and land use data. A grid of cells of 100 m in size is laid over the landscape. For each cell, mean annual surface runoff is estimated from rainfall and percent land use, and expected pollutant concentration is estimated from land use. The product of surface runoff and concentration gives expected pollutant loading from that cell. These loadings are accumulated going downstream to give the expected annual pollutant loadings in streams and rivers. By dividing these accumulated loadings by the similarly accumulated mean annual surface runoff, the expected pollutant concentration from nonpoint sources is determined for each location in a stream or river. Observed pollutant concentrations in the watershed are averaged at each sample point and compared to the expected concentrations at the same locations determined from the grid cell model. In general, annual nonpoint source nutrient loadings in the Wujiang River watershed are seen to be predominantly from the agricultural and meadow areas. The total annual loadings through the outlet of the watershed are 40,309 and 2,607 tons for total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), respectively.     

Relationship between landscape characteristics and surface water quality

The effects of landscape characteristics on surface water quality were evaluated in terms of land-use condition, soil type and slope. The case area, the Chichiawan stream in the Wulin catchment in Taiwan, is Formosan landlocked salmon's natural habitat. Due to the agriculture behavior and mankind's activities, the water and environmental quality has gradually worsened. This study applied WinVAST model to predict hydrological responses and non-point source pollution (NPSP) exports in the Wulin catchment. The land-use condition and the slope of land surface in a catchment are major effect factors for watershed responses, including flows and pollutant exports. This work discussed the possible variation of watershed responses induced by the change of land-use condition, soil type and slope, etc. The results show that hydrological responses are highly relative to the value of Curve Number (CN); Pollutant exports have large relation to the average slope of the land surface in the Wulin catchment.     

A Stream Network Model for Integrated Watershed Modeling

We describe a flexible, computationally efficient stream network model, which forms the core of a simulation framework that spatially integrates the contributions from point and nonpoint sources in a watershed. The model uses the map and stream topology information in the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Reach File 3 to generate a spatially explicit network of stream reaches. Water and materials are routed through the stream network to the watershed outlet, and the routing process accounts for transit times and for possible nutrient losses in streams. This model can be applied wherever Reach File maps or maps from the newer National Hydrography Dataset are available, and it can be combined with models of other watershed processes to create a complete watershed simulation system. We present an application of the stream network model to two watersheds of different sizes in the Patuxent River watershed of Maryland, USA. Simulated predictions of streamflow and nitrate concentrations are either very good or good according to standards developed for evaluating the widely used Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) watershed model.     

Evaluating performance of stormwater sampling approaches using a dynamic watershed model

Accurate quantification of stormwater pollutant levels is essential for estimating overall contaminant discharge to receiving waters. Numerous sampling approaches exist that attempt to balance accuracy against the costs associated with the sampling method. This study employs a novel and practical approach of evaluating the accuracy of different stormwater monitoring methodologies using stormflows and constituent concentrations produced by a fully validated continuous simulation watershed model. A major advantage of using a watershed model to simulate pollutant concentrations is that a large number of storms representing a broad range of conditions can be applied in testing the various sampling approaches. Seventy-eight distinct methodologies were evaluated by "virtual samplings" of 166 simulated storms of varying size, intensity and duration, representing 14 years of storms in Ballona Creek near Los Angeles, California. The 78 methods can be grouped into four general strategies: volume-paced compositing, time-paced compositing, pollutograph sampling, and microsampling. The performances of each sampling strategy was evaluated by comparing the (1) median relative error between the virtually sampled and the true modeled event mean concentration (EMC) of each storm (accuracy), (2) median absolute deviation about the median or "MAD" of the relative error or (precision), and (3) the percentage of storms where sampling methods were within 10% of the true EMC (combined measures of accuracy and precision). Finally, costs associated with site setup, sampling, and laboratory analysis were estimated for each method. Pollutograph sampling consistently outperformed the other three methods both in terms of accuracy and precision, but was the most costly method evaluated. Time-paced sampling consistently underestimated while volume-paced sampling over estimated the storm EMCs. Microsampling performance approached that of pollutograph sampling at a substantial cost savings. The most efficient method for routine stormwater monitoring in terms of a balance between performance and cost was volume-paced microsampling, with variable sample pacing to ensure that the entirety of the storm was captured. Pollutograph sampling is recommended if the data are to be used for detailed analysis of runoff dynamics.     

Biogeochemistry of the Penobscot River watershed, Maine, USA: nutrient export patterns for carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus

Watershed exports of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, major solutes, and suspended sediments were examined during five water years in the Penobscot River basin, which forms part of the Gulf of Maine watershed. Mean annual exports of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Penobscot River were 58 kg C ha(-1) year(-1), whereas cumulative yearly watershed flux of DOC during the study period ranged from 8.6 to 16.1 × 10(10) g C year(-1) and averaged 11.7 × 10(10) g C year(-1). Watershed exports of total soluble N (TN) and total soluble P in the Penobscot River averaged 1.9 and 0.02 kg ha(-1) year(-1), respectively. Companion studies in two other major Maine rivers indicated that mean annual exports of DOC and TN in the Androscoggin River were 40 kg C ha(-1) year(-1) and 2.0 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), whereas exports in the Kennebec River were 43 kg C ha(-1) year(-1) and 2.2 kg N ha(-1) year(-1). Extrapolation of results from this investigation and a previous complementary study indicates that estuaries and coastal waters in the Gulf of Maine receive at least 1.0 × 10(10) g N year(-1) and 2.5 × 10(11) g C year(-1) in combined runoff from the four largest Maine river basins. Soluble exports of Ca + Mg + Na minus wet deposition inputs of cations in the Penobscot system were approximately 1,840 mol(c) ha(-1) year(-1), which represents a minimum estimate of cation denudation from the watershed. Based on its low N and P export rates, the Penobscot River watershed represents an example of reference conditions for use as a benchmark in ecological assessments of river water quality restoration or impairment. In addition, the biogeochemical metrics from this study provide an historical baseline for analysis of future trends in nutrient exports from the Penobscot watershed as a function of changing climatic and land use patterns.     

Habitat evaluation using suitability index and habitat type diversity: a case study involving a shallow forest stream in central Taiwan

In recent years, the Taiwanese government has strongly promoted the concept of ecological engineering in the hope that doing so will encourage the maintenance of the ecosystem and its integrity. As a result, the riprap spur dike is one of the most commonly used measures for protecting stream banks. Traditionally, a spur dike is used at concave banks to prevent their scouring and/or to increase their stabilization. An additional benefit of deflector structures, like spur dikes, may be to increase the weighted usable area (WUA) for aquatic life survival during periods of increased flow (examples include typhoon, flood, etc.). A two-dimensional river habitat simulation program (River2D) coupled with a developed shallow water habitat type diversity module was used for the case study at a headwater stream in central Taiwan. The habitat suitability index for this study was established using substrate, depth, and velocity from field surveys for the fish family Cyprinidae by prepositioned area electrofisher. The ungauged flood conditions were calculated using digital elevation models within a watershed delineation and hydrological modeling system in accordance with local regulations. Simulated results indicate that the spur dikes currently in use on the stream in this study need be improved from a WUA point of view more effectively handle a flood event.     

Modeling Runoff Response to Land Cover and Rainfall Spatial Variability in Semi-Arid Watersheds

Hydrologic response is an integrated indicator of watershed condition, and significant changes in land cover may affect the overall health and function of a watershed. This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the effects of land cover change and rainfall spatial variability on watershed response. Two hydrologic models were applied on a small semi-arid watershed; one model is event-based with a one-minute time step (KINEROS), and the second is a continuous model with a daily time step (SWAT). The inputs to the models were derived from Geographic Information System (GIS) theme layers of USGS digital elevation models, the State Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO) and the Landsat-based North American Landscape Characterization classification (NALC) in conjunction with available literature and look up tables. Rainfall data from a network of 10 raingauges and historical stream flow data were used to calibrate runoff depth using the continuous hydrologic model from 1966 to 1974. No calibration was carried out for the event-based model, in which six storms from the same period were used in the calculation of runoff depth and peak runoff. The assumption on which much of this study is based is that land cover change and rainfall spatial variability affect the rainfall-runoff relationships on the watershed. To validate this assumption, simulations were carried out wherein the entire watershed was transformed from the 1972 NALC land cover, which consisted of a mixture of desertscrub and grassland, to a single uniform land cover type such as riparian, forest, oak woodland, mesquite woodland, desertscrub, grassland, urban, agriculture, and barren. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using widely available data sets for parameterizing hydrologic simulation models. The simulation results show that both models were able to characterize the runoff response of the watershed due to changes of land cover.     

A vulnerability analysis in the Fei-tsui reservoir watershed in Taiwan

The vulnerability analysis method has been widely used in many environmental fields. In recent years, the tool has succeeded in comprehensive assessment of environmental problems. This study applied the vulnerability and resilience analysis method on watershed conservation and grasped the environmental change capacity that watershed could bear. The Fei-tsui reservoir watershed in Northern Taiwan provided the setting for the case study reported herein. This study considered both internal and external effect factors, including watershed vulnerability, rainfall energy and the distances between the outlet and subbasins, and developed a new index, WP, for the priority restraints strategies on the land-use activities. The land-use restraint index can be a significant criterion for watershed protection and management strategies.     

Effect of DEM mesh size on AnnAGNPS simulation and slope correction

The objective of this paper is to study the impact of the mesh size of the digital elevation model (DEM) on terrain attributes within an Annualized AGricultural NonPoint Source pollution (AnnAGNPS) Model simulation at watershed scale and provide a correction of slope gradient for low resolution DEMs. The effect of different grid sizes of DEMs on terrain attributes was examined by comparing eight DEMs (30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, and 100 m). The accuracy of the AnnAGNPS stimulation on runoff, sediments, and nutrient loads is evaluated. The results are as follows: (1) Rnoff does not vary much with decrease of DEM resolution whereas soil erosion and total nitrogen (TN) load change prominently. There is little effect on runoff simulation of AnnAGNPS modeling by the amended slope using an adjusted 50 m DEM. (2) A decrease of sediment yield and TN load is observed with an increase of DEM mesh size from 30 to 60 m; a slight decrease of sediment and TN load with the DEM mesh size bigger than 60 m. There is similar trend for total phosphorus (TP) variation, but with less range of variation, the simulation of sediment, TN, and TP increase, in which sediment increase up to 1.75 times compared to the model using unadjusted 50 m DEM. In all, the amended simulation still has a large difference relative to the results using 30 m DEM. AnnAGNPS is less reliable for sediment loading prediction in a small hilly watershed. (3) Resolution of DEM has significant impact on slope gradient. The average, minimum, maximum of slope from the various DEMs reduced obviously with the decrease of DEM precision. For the grade of 0～15°, the slopes at lower resolution DEM are generally bigger than those at higher resolution DEM. But for the grade bigger than 15°, the slopes at lower resolution DEM are generally smaller than those at higher resolution DEM. So it is necessary to adjust the slope with a fitting equation. A cubic model is used for correction of slope gradient from lower resolution to that from higher resolution. Results for Dage watershed showed that fine meshes are desired to avoid large underestimates of sediment and total nitrogen loads and moderate underestimates of total phosphorus loads even with the slopes for the 50 m DEM adjusted to be more similar to the slopes from the 30 m DEM. Decreasing the mesh size beyond this threshold does not substantially affect the computed runoff flux but generated prediction errors for nitrogen and sediment yields. So the appropriate DEM will control error and make simulation at acceptable level.     

Load estimation and source apportionment of nonpoint source nitrogen and phosphorus based on integrated application of SLURP model, ECM, and RUSLE: a case study in the Jinjiang River, China

The nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is difficult to manage and control due to its complicated generation and formation. Load estimation and source apportionment are an important and necessary process for efficient NPS control. Here, an integrated application of semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, export coefficients model (ECM), and revise universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) for the load estimation and source apportionment of nitrogen and phosphorus was proposed. The Jinjiang River (China) was chosen for the evaluation of the method proposed here. The chosen watershed was divided into 27 subbasins. After which, the SLURP model was used to calculate land use runoff and to estimate loads of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus, and ECM was applied to estimate dissolved loads from livestock and rural domestic sewage. Next, the RUSLE was employed for load estimation of adsorbed nitrogen and phosphorus. The results showed that the 12,029.06 t?a^?1 pollution loads of total NPS nitrogen (TN) mainly originated from dissolved nitrogen (96.24 %). The major sources of TN were land use runoff, which accounted for 45.97 % of the total, followed by livestock (32.43 %) and rural domestic sewage (17.83 %). For total NPS phosphorous (TP), its pollution loads were 570.82 t?a^?1 and made up of dissolved and adsorbed phosphorous with 66.29 and 33.71 % respectively. Soil erosion, land use runoff, rural domestic sewage, and livestock were the main sources of phosphorus with contribution ratios of 33.71, 45.73, 14.32, and 6.24 % respectively. Therefore, land use runoff, livestock, and soil erosion were identified as the main pollution sources to influence loads of NPS nitrogen and phosphorus in the Jinjiang River and should be controlled first. The method developed here provided a helpful guideline for conducting NPS pollution management in similar watershed.     

Spatial and temporal variation in suspended sediment, organic matter, and turbidity in a Minnesota prairie river: implications for TMDLs

The Minnesota River Basin (MRB), situated in the prairie pothole region of the Upper Midwest, contributes excessive sediment and nutrient loads to the Upper Mississippi River. Over 330 stream channels in the MRB are listed as impaired by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, with turbidity levels exceeding water quality standards in much of the basin. Addressing turbidity impairment requires an understanding of pollutant sources that drive turbidity, which was the focus of this study. Suspended volatile solids (SVS), total suspended solids (TSS), and turbidity were measured over two sampling seasons at ten monitoring stations in Elm Creek, a turbidity impaired tributary in the MRB. Turbidity levels exceeded the Minnesota standard of 25 nephelometric units in 73% of Elm Creek samples. Turbidity and TSS were correlated (r ²?=?0.76), yet they varied with discharge and season. High levels of turbidity occurred during periods of high stream flow (May–June) because of excessive suspended inorganic sediment from watershed runoff, stream bank, and channel contributions. Both turbidity and TSS increased exponentially downstream with increasing stream power, bank height, and bluff erosion. However, organic matter discharged from wetlands and eutrophic lakes elevated SVS levels and stream turbidity in late summer when flows were low. SVS concentrations reached maxima at lake outlets (50 mg/l) in August. Relying on turbidity measurements alone fails to identify the cause of water quality impairment whether from suspended inorganic sediment or organic matter. Therefore, developing mitigation measures requires monitoring of both TSS and SVS from upstream to downstream reaches.     

Sensitivity of Simulated Conservation Practice Effectiveness to Representation of Field and In-Stream Processes in the Little River Watershed

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation practices (CPs) is an important step to achieving efficient and successful water quality management. Watershed-scale simulation models can provide useful and convenient tools for this evaluation, but simulated conservation practice effectiveness should be responsive to parameter values used to represent the practices in the modeling. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the impacts of a set of conservation practices on hydrology and water quality of a watershed and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling outputs and simulated conservation practice effectiveness to parameters. The modeling study was conducted in an agricultural watershed, the subwatershed K (16.9 km²) of the Little River Experimental watershed located in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the USA. Sensitivity analysis showed that hydrologic response unit (HRU) and watershed-scale simulations for water quality were most sensitive to CN and FILTERW parameters. Load reduction rates as a function of increased aerial coverage of the conservation practices were greatest for total phosphorus (TP), followed by sediment and total nitrogen (TN). The results indicated that conservation practices would have a limited impact on stream flow volume but could have a significant impact on sediment and TP loads within this region. Watershed-scale TN and TP loads were also sensitive to an in-stream nutrient transformation process represented using the QUAL2E algorithm in SWAT. The study clearly demonstrated the most sensitive model parameters and the optimal conservation practices for this watershed.     

Optimal strategies for best management practice placement in a synthetic watershed

It is significant to arrange suitable design and placement of best management practices (BMPs) for reaching the aim that can not only satisfy environmental quality standards, but also decrease the total cost of BMPs. This study applied WinVAST model to predict watershed responses. The objective of this work was to discuss both the economic costs and benefits of BMPs and the control efficiency of discharge and pollutant exports, and to create some suitable standards for the optimal BMPs placement strategies. It is significant to find an optimal number and location of BMPs. In the case study herein, the number of BMPs including a detention pond and a grassy swale would be better to be given by four. The number of BMPs should also be determined by the environmental standards. Moreover, the result shows that the optimal location of BMPs placement is in the downstream area near the outlet and on the mainstream of the catchment. When the BMPs are set in these regions, it cannot only reduce the peak flow and peak pollutant exports, but also have slow time to peak watershed responses.     

Effects of land cover changes induced by large physical disturbances on hydrological responses in Central Taiwan

This study analyzes the significant impacts of typhoons and earthquakes on land cover change and hydrological response. The occurrence of landslides following typhoons and earthquakes is a major indicator of natural disturbance. The hydrological response of the Chenyulan watershed to land use change was assessed from 1996 to 2005. Land use changes revealed by seven remote images corresponded to typhoons and a catastrophic earthquake in central Taiwan. Hydrological response is discussed as the change in quantities and statistical distributions of hydrological components. The land cover change results indicate that the proportion of landslide relative to total area increased to 6.1% after the Chi-Chi earthquake, representing the largest increase during the study period. The study watershed is dominated by forest land cover. Comparisons of hydrological components reveal that the disturbance significantly affects base flow and direct runoff. The hydrological modeling results demonstrate that the change in forest area correlates with the variation of base flow and direct runoff. Base flow and direct runoff are sensitive to land use in discussions of distinction. The proposed approach quantifies the effect of typhoons and earthquakes on land cover changes.     

平原感潮河网地区不同土地利用下营养盐迁移特征

分别在南通平原河网地区选择典型非圩区开展野外原位试验,用野外观测和室内分析相结合的方法,研究平原非圩区典型试验小区不同土地利用下营养盐在自然降雨—径流驱动下迁移的时空分布特征.结果表明,导致营养盐迁移时空分布存在显著差异的主要原因为不同的土地利用类型、施肥条件及植被覆盖度等,不同土地利用下的径流量差异是导致营养盐迁移通...