Evaluating Uncertain CO2 Abatement over the Very Long Term

Climate change research with the economic methodology of cost–benefit analysis is challenging because of valuation and ethical issues associated with the long delays between CO₂ emissions and much of their potential damages, typically of several centuries. The large uncertainties with which climate change impacts are known today and the possibly temporary nature of some envisaged CO₂ abatement options exacerbate this challenge. For example, potential leakage of CO₂ from geological reservoirs, after this greenhouse gas has been stored artificially underground for climate control reasons, requires an analysis in which the uncertain climatic consequences of leakage are valued over many centuries. We here present a discussion of some of the relevant questions in this context and provide calculations with the top–down energy-environment-economy model DEMETER. Given the long-term features of the climate change conundrum as well as of technologies that can contribute to its solution, we considered it necessary extending DEMETER to cover a period from today until the year?3000, a time span so far hardly investigated with integrated assessment models of climate change.     

Institutional quality and environmental sustainability: The role of freedom of press in most freedom of press countries

Despite the fact that there are several attempts in the literature of environmental economics to identify the key determinants of environmental degradation particularly CO₂ emissions, little attention has been given to institutional factors, especially the influence of freedom of press has not been scrutinized. This study therefore is undertaking to close the gap and examine the impact of freedom of the press on CO₂ emissions. The study draws data from 10 countries indexed as the most freedom of press countries from 1993‐ to 2016 due to the availability of data on freedom of press and examines it using the technique of pooled mean group (PMG) belonging to the panel autoregressive distributed lag model. The study further applies the second generation techniques of cross-sectional dependence test, Westerlund cointegration-ECM test to account for cross-sectional dependence of the panel. The main finding of the study indicates that freedom of the press has the capacity to reduce CO₂ emissions in most freedom of press countries. In addition, the result confirms the existence of an inverted U-shaped curve between CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP, validating the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Energy use and foreign direct investment as control variables contribute to rising CO₂ emissions in most freedom of press countries. In this regards, the study recommends that freedom of the press should be improved upon through the channel of institutional quality, symmetry, efficiency and reputation effects in order to reduce the incidence of CO₂ emissions.     

The role of physical and human capital in FDI-pollution-growth nexus in countries with different income groups: A simultaneity modeling analysis

This paper examines the causal links between foreign direct investment (FDI), CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in a global panel of 101 countries and four diverse income groups (low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high) countries using the simultaneous equations framework, with data from 1990 to 2014. Considering physical capital and human capital, this is the first time these two determinants have been linked to the FDI-pollution-growth simultaneous equation model. The dependent variables in the three simultaneous equations are inflow of foreign direct investment, CO₂ emissions as a proxy for environmental pollution, and real gross domestic product. Three critical inferences can be drawn from the results. First, there is a two-way causal relationship between growth and FDI in the global panel and across all income groups (except for lower-middle-income groups). Likewise, except for high-income countries, there is a two-way causal relationship between FDI and CO₂ emissions in the global panel. Second, the results support a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in the global panel and the income subgroup, but only in the low-middle and high-income groups support the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and pollution haven hypothesis (PHH). Third, the heterogeneous impact of human and physical capital on the environment is genuinely striking: human capital improves its quality while physical capital degrades it. The results suggest that physical and human capital contributes to economic growth and attracts foreign direct investment.     

Global warming implications of facade parameters: A life cycle assessment of residential buildings in Bahrain

On a global scale, the Gulf Corporation Council Countries (GCCC), including Bahrain, are amongst the top countries in terms of carbon dioxide emissions per capita. Building authority in Bahrain has set a target of 40% reduction of electricity consumption and associated CO₂ emissions to be achieved by using facade parameters. This work evaluates how the life cycle CO₂ emissions of buildings are affected by facade parameters. The main focus is placed on direct and indirect CO₂ emissions from three contributors, namely, chemical reactions during production processes (Pco₂), embodied energy (Eco₂) and operational energy (OPco₂). By means of the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, it has been possible to show that the greatest environmental impact occurs during the operational phase (80–90%). However, embodied CO₂ emissions are an important factor that needs to be brought into the systems used for appraisal of projects, and hence into the design decisions made in developing projects. The assessment shows that masonry blocks are responsible for 70–90% of the total CO₂ emissions of facade construction, mainly due to their physical characteristics. The highest Pco₂ emissions factors are those of window elements, particularly aluminium frames. However, their contribution of CO₂ emissions depends largely on the number and size of windows. Each square metre of glazing is able to increase the total CO₂ emissions by almost 30% when compared with the same areas of opaque walls. The use of autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) walls reduces the total life cycle CO₂ emissions by almost 5.2% when compared with ordinary walls, while the use of thermal insulation with concrete wall reduces CO₂ emissions by 1.2%. The outcome of this work offers to the building industry a reliable indicator of the environmental impact of residential facade parameters.     

Effect of national-level spatial distribution of cities on national transport CO2 emissions

Most research regarding the relationship between cities and transportation carbon emission is focused on intra-city travel, and it has been found that compact patterns tend to emit less carbon. Yet, little is known about the impact of national-level spatial distribution of cities and inter-city transportation on transportation CO₂ emissions. Further, most studies regarding the impact of urbanization on CO₂ emission directly examine the relationship between urbanization rate and CO₂ emission with little consideration of the national spatial pattern of urbanization. This study hypothesizes that the national-level spatial distribution of cities – in a dispersed or polarized pattern – affects national transport CO₂ emissions due to the varying intensity of inter-city transportation. This study uses the Gridded Population of the World v3 and v4 from Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) of NASA to examine the national-level spatial distribution of urban agglomerations. It applies the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The analysis shows that, among 60–90% of urbanized countries, spatially dispersed urbanized countries (e.g., countries with many medium-sized cities scattered over the territory) show a lower national transportation CO₂ emission than spatially polarized urbanized countries (e.g., there are only a few large cities). The urban system elasticity of transportation CO₂ emissions is 0.4 or 0.6. That is, if the degree of polarization decreases by 1%, national transportation CO₂ emissions decrease by approximately 0.4–0.6%. This effect is similar to the effect of GDP per capita of around 0.5%. Because it is particularly difficult to disperse people and economic activities across a country once spatial polarization is set, this study's findings have the most significant implications for urbanizing countries. If urbanizing countries adopt national urban policy and territorial plans to form dispersed cities, it could reduce transportation carbon emissions and promote sustainable development. For already urbanized countries, national urban policy development is recommended to promote spatially dispersed rather than polarized national urban systems.     

Availability of disaggregated greenhouse gas emissions from beef cattle production: A systematic review

Agriculture is a significant source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and beef cattle are particularly emissions intensive. GHG emissions are typically expressed as a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) ‘carbon footprint’ per unit output. The 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP₁₀₀) is the most commonly used CO₂e metric, but others have also been proposed, and there is no universal reason to prefer GWP₁₀₀ over alternative metrics. The weightings assigned to non-CO₂ GHGs can differ significantly depending on the metric used, and relying upon a single metric can obscure important differences in the climate impacts of different GHGs. This loss of detail is especially relevant to beef production systems, as the majority of GHG emissions (as conventionally reported) are in the form of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), rather than CO₂. This paper presents a systematic literature review of harmonised cradle to farm-gate beef carbon footprints from bottom-up studies on individual or representative systems, collecting the emissions data for each separate GHG, rather than a single CO₂e value. Disaggregated GHG emissions could not be obtained for the majority of studies, highlighting the loss of information resulting from the standard reporting of total GWP₁₀₀ CO₂e alone. Where individual GHG compositions were available, significant variation was found for all gases. A comparison of grass fed and non-grass fed beef production systems was used to illustrate dynamics that are not sufficiently captured through a single CO₂e footprint. Few clear trends emerged between the two dietary groups, but there was a non-significant indication that under GWP₁₀₀ non-grass fed systems generally appear more emissions efficient, but under an alternative metric, the 100-year global temperature potential (GTP₁₀₀), grass-fed beef had lower footprints. Despite recent focus on agricultural emissions, this review concludes there are insufficient data available to fully address important questions regarding the climate impacts of agricultural production, and calls for researchers to include separate GHG emissions in addition to aggregated CO₂e footprints.     

The environmental Kuznets curve of CO2 emissions in the manufacturing and construction industries: A global empirical analysis

The manufacturing and construction industries have significantly contributed to the increase of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is widely leveraged to analyze the peak of CO₂ emissions, which is considered as a pivotal step for the effective CO₂ emission reduction in previous studies. This study tests the EKC hypothesis using the data of CO₂ emissions of manufacturing and construction industries from 121 countries throughout 1960–2014, and turning points (TPs) are calculated for the countries where EKC hypothesis is validated. The results show that the EKC hypothesis was validated by 95 out of 121 countries, among which, 13 countries have not reached any of the three TPs, 11 countries have reached the first-step TP (TP_CI), 21 countries have reached the second-step TP (TP_PC), and 50 countries have reached the third-step TP (TP_TC). Moreover, the result of examination of the EKC existence at four income levels indicates the higher-income nations own a higher proportion of countries validates the EKC hypothesis and reach the TP. These findings help policy-makers analyze the TP status quo and generate step-wise strategies for national CO₂ emission reduction of manufacturing and construction industries.     

The impact of terrorism and FDI on environmental pollution: Evidence from Afghanistan,Iraq, Nigeria,Pakistan, Philippines,Syria, Somalia,Thailand and Yemen

In this study, the relationships among environmental pollution, terrorism, foreign direct investments (FDI), energy consumption and economic growth is investigated for Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Syria, Somalia, Thailand and Yemen covering the 1975–2017 period utilizing Panel cointegration tests, ANOVA tests, long-run estimators and panel trivariate Causality tests. ANOVA results are in favor of evidence of homogeneity between the selected countries. Long-run estimators reveal that terrorism, FDI, energy consumption and economic growth have statistically significant effects on environmental pollution. Panel trivariate Causality test determines the causal relationship between the variables. Accordingly, one-way causal nexus from terrorism to Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and from FDI inflows to CO₂ emissions are found in the short-run. In the long-run, with strong causality results, the evidence of bi-directional causality between CO₂ emissions and other variables, namely, terrorism, FDI inflow energy consumption and economic growth are detected.     

The Kyoto Protocol and non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Sinks

Many trace constituents other than carbon dioxide affect the radiative budget of the atmosphere. The existing international agreement to limit greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol, includes carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) and credit for some carbon sinks. We investigate technological options for reducing emissions of these gases and the economic implications of including other greenhouse gases and sinks in the climate change control policy. We conduct an integreated assessment of costs using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model combined with estimates of abatement costs for non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and sinks. We find that failure to take advantage of the other gas and sink flexibility would nearly double aggregate Annex B costs. Including all the GHGs and sinks is actually cheaper than if only CO₂ had been included in the Protocol and their inclusion achieves greater overall abatement. There remains considerable uncertainty in these estimates, the magnitude of the savings depends heavily on reference projections of emissions, for example, but these uncertainties do not change the overall conclusion that non-CO₂ GHGs are an important part of a climate control policy.     

Is Globalization Detrimental to CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions in Japan? New Threshold Analysis

Using annual data from 1970 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of globalization on CO₂ emissions in Japan while accounting for economic growth and energy consumption as potential determinants of carbon emissions. The structural breaks and asymmetries arising due to policy shifts require attention, and hence, an asymmetric threshold version of the ARDL model is utilized. The results show the presence of threshold asymmetric cointegration between variables. Threshold-based positive and negative shocks arising from globalization increase carbon emissions, while the impact of the latter is more profound. Energy consumption (economic growth) also has a significant positive effect on carbon emissions. Globalization, economic growth, and energy consumption significantly increase carbon emissions in the short run. We suggest that policy makers in Japan consider globalization and energy consumption as policy tools in formulating their policies regarding protecting sustainable environmental quality in the long run. Otherwise, the Japanese economy may continue to face environmental consequences such as undesirable climate change and massive warming at the micro and macro levels as a result of potential shocks arising from globalization and energy consumption.     

CO2 Capture and Storage with Leakage in an Energy-Climate Model

Geological CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is among the main near-term contenders for addressing the problem of global climate change. Even in a baseline scenario, with no comprehensive international climate policy, a moderate level of CCS technology is expected to be deployed, given the economic benefits associated with enhanced oil and gas recovery. With stringent climate change control, CCS technologies will probably be installed on an industrial scale. Geologically stored CO₂, however, may leak back to the atmosphere, which could render CCS ineffective as climate change reduction option. This article presents a long-term energy scenario study for Europe, in which we assess the significance for climate policy making of leakage of CO₂ artificially stored in underground geological formations. A detailed sensitivity analysis is performed for the CO₂ leakage rate with the bottom-up energy systems model MARKAL, enriched for this purpose with a large set of CO₂ capture technologies (in the power sector, industry, and for the production of hydrogen) and storage options (among which enhanced oil and gas recovery, enhanced coal bed methane recovery, depleted fossil fuel fields, and aquifers). Through a series of model runs, we confirm that a leakage rate of 0.1%/year seems acceptable for CCS to constitute a meaningful climate change mitigation option, whereas one of 1%/year is not. CCS is essentially no option to achieve CO₂ emission reductions when the leakage rate is as high as 1%/year, so more reductions need to be achieved through the use of renewables or nuclear power, or in sectors like industry and transport. We calculate that under strict climate control policy, the cumulative captured and geologically stored CO₂ by 2100 in the electricity sector, when the leakage rate is 0.1%/year, amounts to about 45,000 MtCO₂. Only a little over 10,000 MtCO₂ cumulative power-generation-related emissions are captured and stored underground by the end of the century when the leakage rate is 1%/year. Overall marginal CO₂ abatement costs increase from a few €/tCO₂ today to well over 150 €/tCO₂ in 2100, under an atmospheric CO₂ concentration constraint of 550 ppmv. Carbon costs in 2100 turn out to be about 40 €/tCO₂ higher when the annual leakage rate is 1%/year in comparison to when there is no CO₂ leakage. Irrespective of whether CCS deployment is affected by gradual CO₂ seepage, the annual welfare loss in Europe induced by the implementation of policies preventing “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (under our assumption, implying a climate stabilisation target of 550 ppmv CO₂ concentration) remains below 0.5% of GDP during the entire century.

Modeling seasonal variations of long-term soil CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in an orchard plantation in a semiarid area,SE Turkey

Emissions of soil CO₂ under different management systems have a significant effect on the carbon balance in the atmosphere. Soil CO₂ emissions were measured from an apricot orchard at two different locations: under the crown of trees (CO₂-UC) and between tree rows (CO₂-BR). For comparison, one other measurement was performed on bare soil (CO₂-BS) located next to the orchard field. Analytical data were obtained weekly during 8 years from April 2008 to December 2016. Various environmental parameters such as air temperature, soil temperature at different depths, soil moisture, rainfall, and relative humidity were used for modeling and estimating the long-term seasonal variations in soil CO₂ emissions using two different methods: generalized linear model (GLM) and artificial neural network (ANN). Before modeling, data were randomly split into two parts, one for calibration and the second for validation, with a varying number of samples in each part. Performances of the models were compared and evaluated using means absolute of estimations (MAE), square root of mean of prediction (RMSEP), and coefficient of determination (R²) values. CO₂-UC, CO₂-BR, and CO₂-BS values ranged from 11 to 3985, from 9 to 2365, and from 8 to 1722 kg ha^?1 week^?1, respectively. Soil CO₂ emissions were significantly correlated (p?<?0.05) with some environmental variables. The results showed that GLM and ANN models provided similar accuracies in modeling and estimating soil CO₂ emissions, as the number of samples in the validation data set increased. The ANN was more advantageous than GLM models by providing a better fit between actual observations and predictions and lower RMSEP and MAE values. The results suggested that the success of environmental variables for estimations of CO₂ emissions using the two methods was moderate.     

Decadal emission estimates of carbon dioxide,sulfur dioxide,and nitric oxide emissions from coal burning in electric power generation plants in India

This study aims to estimate the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and nitric oxide (NO) for coal combustion in thermal power plants in India using plant-specific emission factors during the period of 2001/02 to 2009/10. The mass emission factors have been theoretically calculated using the basic principles of combustion under representative prevailing operating conditions in the plants and fuel composition. The results show that from 2001/02 to 2009/10 period, total CO₂ emissions have increased from 324 to 499 Mt/year; SO₂ emissions have increased from 2,519 to 3,840 kt/year; and NO emissions have increased from 948 to 1,539 kt/year from the Indian coal-fired power plants. National average emissions per unit of electricity from the power plants do not show a noticeable improvement during this period. Emission efficiencies for new plants that use improved technology are found to be better than those of old plants. As per these estimates, the national average of CO₂ emissions per unit of electricity varies between 0.91 and 0.95 kg/kWh while SO₂ and NO emissions vary in the range of 6.9 to 7.3 and 2.8 to 2.9 g/kWh, respectively. Yamunagar plant in Haryana state showed the highest emission efficiencies with CO₂ emissions as 0.58 kg/kWh, SO₂ emissions as 3.87 g/kWh, and NO emissions as 1.78 g/kWh, while the Faridabad plant has the lowest emission efficiencies with CO₂ emissions as 1.5 kg/kWh, SO₂ emissions as 10.56 g/kWh, and NO emissions as 4.85 g/kWh. Emission values at other plants vary between the values of these two plants.     

Fuel characteristics and emissions from biomass burning and land-use change in Nigeria

Nigeria is one of the 13 low-latitude countries that have significant biomass burning activities. Biomass burning occurs in moist savanna, dry forests, and forest plantations. Fires in the forest zone are associated with slash-and-burn agriculture; the areal extent of burning is estimated to be 80% of the natural savanna. In forest plantations, close to 100% of litter is burned. Current estimates of emissions from land-use change are based on a 1976 national study and extrapolations from it. The following non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) trace gas emissions were calculated from savanna burning: methane (CH₄), 145 gigagrams (Gg); carbon monoxide (CO), 3831 Gg; nitrous oxide (N₂O), 2 Gg; and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), 49 Gg. Deforestation rates in forests and woodlands are 300 × 10³ ha (kilohectare, or kha) and 200 × kha per year, respectively. Trace gas emissions from deforestation were estimated to be 300 Gg CH₄, 2.4 Gg N₂O, and 24 Gg NO_x. CO₂ emissions from burning, decay of biomass, and long-term emissions from soil totaled 125 561 Gg. These estimates should be viewed as preliminary, because greenhouse gas emission inventories from burning, deforestation, and land-use change require two components: fuel load and emission factors. Fuel load is dependent on the areal extent of various land uses, and the biomass stocking and some of these data in Nigeria are highly uncertain.     

Modelling and assessing inter-regional trade of CO2 emission reduction units

A cost-efficient way to allocate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions among countries or regions is to harmonise their marginal reduction costs. This could be achieved by a market of emission reduction units (ERUs). To model such a market, we use a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model. It gives insights into the consequences of co-ordinating CO₂ abatement on regional energy systems and economies. As a numerical application, we assess the establishment of a market of ERUs among three European countries for curbing their CO₂ emissions.     

Optimisation of reduction of global CO2 emission based on a simple model of the carbon cycle

A simple model has been designed to describe the interaction of climate and biosphere. Carbon dioxide, understood as a major emitted gas, leads to a change of global climate. Economic interpretation of the model is based on the maximisation of the global CO₂ cumulative emissions. The two most important profiles of emission have been obtained: optimal and multi-exponential suboptimal profiles, each displaying different characteristics. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Global Warming, Uncertainty and Endogenous Technical Change

What impact does ecological uncertainty have on agents' decisions concerning domestic emissions abatement, physical investments, and R&;D expenditures? How sensitive are the answers to these questions when we move from exogenous to endogenous technical change? To investigate these issues we modify the ETC-RICE model described in Buonanno et al. (2001) by embedding in it a hazard rate function as in Bosello and Moretto (1999). With this model at hand we run numerical optimisations focusing our attention on the control variables of the representative agents, i.e., domestic abatement rate, investments in physical capital, and R&;D spending, as well as on the endogenous patterns of GDP level and CO₂ emissions. Our results show that uncertainty strongly influences agents behaviour; in particular, agents slow down their emissions in order to maintain a more sustainable growth path. In addition, R&;D expenditures trigger the “engine of growth” exclusively when environmental technical change is formalized in an endogenous fashion. However, even if environmental uncertainty may stimulate technical change, long-run growth it turns out to be negatively affected by the former, as also predicted by Clarke and Reed (1994) Tsur and Zemel (1996) and Bosello and Moretto (1999).     

Energy forecasting and atmospheric CO2 perspectives: two worlds ignore each other

Macroeconomic models predict that the global primary energy demand will increase by a factor of 2–4 by the year 2050. In contrast, climate analyses made by the IPCC claim that CO₂ emissions in 2050 should not exceed the values of 1990 or even be 20% lower. By 2100 emissions should be reduced to one third of the present value. The common wisdom to deal with these opposing trends is the concept of de-carbonization, i.e., the continuous decrease of the carbon emission per unit energy utilization. De-carbonization rates needed to compensate for the growing demand while keeping the CO₂-emissions constant should at least be 2% per year compared to actual values of 0.3%. The potential of different de-carbonization rate measures is analyzed. It is argued that the goal can only be met if per capita energy utilization in the industrialized countries is significantly reduced from their typical level of 5000–10 000 W. As a realistic target we suggest 2000 Watt per capita, the present global average. This would leave expansion capacity for the developing countries which presently have per capita demand between 300 and 1000 W. Based on the example of Switzerland it is shown that the two key issues to attain this goal are the quality of buildings and the demand for mobility. It is concluded that the conversion of the present energy system into a 2000 W system is neither limited by technology nor by finances but by the acceptance of a new life style in which energy is used more efficiently and more intelligently than today. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Greenhouse gas emission inventory for Senegal, 1991

The first greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates for Senegal, for the year 1991, were produced according to the draft IPCC/OECD guidelines for national inventories of GHGs. Despite certain discrepancies, nonavailability of data, the quality of some of the data collected, and the methodology, the estimates provide a provisional basis for Senegal to fulfill its obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This inventory reveals that GHG emissions in Senegal, like those in many developing countries, can mainly be attributed to the use of biomass for energy, land-use change and forestry, and savanna burning. Taking into account the direct global warming potential of the main GHGs (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O), Senegal's emissions are estimated at 17.6 Tg ECO₂. The major gases emitted are CO₂ (61% of GHG emissions), followed by CH₄ (35%) and N₂O (4%). Energy accounts for 45% of total emissions (12% from fossil energy and 33% from traditional biomass energy); land-use change and forests, 18%; agriculture, 24%; waste, 12%; and industry, 1%.     

Identifying the European Fossil Fuel Plumes in the Atmosphere Over the Northeast Atlantic Region Through Isotopic Observations and Numerical Modelling

As part of the Danish NEAREX project the origin and variability of anthropogenic atmospheric CO₂ over the Northeast Atlantic Region (NEAR) has been studied. The project consisted of a combination of experimental and modelling activities. Local volunteers operated CO₂ sampling stations, built at University of Copenhagen, for ¹⁴C analysis at four locations (East Denmark, Shetland Isles, Faroe Isles and Iceland). The samples were only collected during winter periods of south-easterly winds in an attempt to trace air enriched in fossil-fuel derived CO₂ due to combustion of fossil fuels within European countries. In order to study the transport and concentration fields over the region in detail, a three-dimensional Eulerian hemispheric air pollution model has been extended to include the main anthropogenic sources for atmospheric CO₂. During the project period (1998–2001) only a few episodes of transport from Central Europe towards NEAR arose, which makes the data set for the evaluation of the method sparse. The analysed samples indicate that the signal for fossil CO₂, as expected, is largest (up to 3.7±0.4% fossil CO₂) at the Danish location closest to the European emissions areas and much weaker (up to ∼1.5±0.6% fossil CO₂) at the most remote location. As the anthropogenic signal is weak in the clean atmosphere over NEAR these numbers will, however, be very sensitive to the assumed background ¹⁴CO₂ activity and the precision of the measurements. The model simulations include the interplay between the driving processes from the emission into the boundary layer and the following horizontal/vertical mixing and atmospheric transport and are used to analyse the meteorological conditions leading to the observed events of high fossil CO₂ over NEAR. This information about the history of the air masses is essential if an observed signal is to be utilised for identifying and quantifying sources for fossil CO₂.