基于D-S证据理论的可靠性强化试验的综合评价

针对可靠性强化试验的各个试验项目对产品的可靠性影响的综合评价问题,应用D-S证据理论对其试验效果进行评价。介绍了D-S证据理论的基本概念及D-S证据融合准则,并针对RET给出应用D-S证据理论对其进行评价的方法。该方法首先针对RET对产品可靠性影响的各个可能性结果构造识别框架;其次,将RET中的每个试验项目视为一个证据,建立相应的证据体;最后,使用D-S证据融合规则对各个证据进行融合。结果表明,针对RET采用D-S证据理论进行评价有助于将多个证据有机地融合在一起,有利于提高评价的准确性,降低不确定度。     

Evidence,politics and power in public policy for the environment

Despite a recent emphasis on ‘evidence based policy’ accompanied by an abundance of ‘green’ policy instruments, experience from the European Union and OECD countries shows that decisions which truly aim to balance environmental considerations with social and economic ones remain thin on the ground. Moreover, many policies seem to fall short of, or directly contradict what the available ‘evidence’ suggests is required. This is a synthesis paper bringing together literature from the fields of political science, geography, sociology and science and technology studies to outline some of the obscurities relating to the use of scientific evidence in environmental decision-making. In this paper, we suggest that an exploration of three key inter-related issues is necessary to develop a richer understanding of why evidence and policy interact as they do. These are the nature of evidence itself; the normative, moral or ethical ‘politics’ of policy-making; and the operation of power in the policy process. Our primary goal is to bring various literatures together to better conceptualise the evidence–policy relationship. In so doing, we outline specific challenges for knowledge producers who set research priorities, and design and direct research projects. We also highlight significant implications for policy decision-making processes.     

浅谈环保行政执法证据的收集、制作

在环境案件调查处理过程中,证据具有重要作用.收集、制作有效的执法证据是环保部门作出具体行政行为的基础.只有掌握充分确凿的证据,才能保证正确认定案件事实,也才能正确适用法律,避免出现行政复议变更或行政诉讼败论情况的发生.在此,根据环境案件的执法的特征和特点阐述了收集、制作证据的方法和要求.     

Reporting marine climate change impacts: Lessons from the science-policy interface

Climate change science can trace its origins back to the early 19th Century although interest really took off in the 1980s, when public interest and research activity proliferated as the potential negative effects of global warming became clear. The impacts of climate change on the marine environment was receiving little attention at this time, but in recent years has started to “catch up” both in terms of research activity and public and policy interest. In the UK, the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) has played a key role in transferring the emerging evidence base on marine climate change impacts to decision makers through the development of climate change report cards. Since publishing its first card back in 2006, the MCCIP cards have become established as the principal source of marine climate change impacts evidence for policy makers in the UK, and similar approaches have been adopted elsewhere. Here we broadly describe how the climate change evidence base has evolved over time, with a focus on the marine evidence base, and the approach adopted in the UK by MCCIP to rapidly transfer this evidence to end users. The SIIRMS model developed by MCCIP to ensure integrity and independence in the scientific translation process is explored, along with wider lessons learnt along the way (e.g. about communicating uncertainty) and the impact MCCIP has had on informing decision making.     

Scientific evidence,expert entrepreneurship,and ecosystem narratives in the UK Natural Environment White Paper

The Natural Environment White Paper represents the most important conservation policy shift in the United Kingdom (UK) in twenty years. It formalises the ecosystem approach within national policy objectives and emphasises the economic value of ecosystem services. By analysing the use of various evidence sources, the involvement of science entrepreneurs, and the development of policy narratives, our goal was to understand factors that influenced adoption of an ecosystem service framework in the UK. We interviewed 48 policy actors and found that centrally-sponsored synthesis reports with entrepreneurial authors provided the most influential expert-based knowledge in the development of the White Paper. More recently published reports had greater influence, yet the window of opportunity for scientific evidence having policy impact was greater in the problem-setting stages of policy development. The interaction between teams preparing syntheses and expert entrepreneurs helped influence the construction of strategic policy narratives. Those narratives increased the impact of scientific evidence by communicating and framing key policy-salient messages, and brokering between broad ecosystem-based and environmental economics narratives. The combination of ecological and economics evidence was particularly salient in the UK case due to the context of continued biodiversity loss and the acceptability of valuation narratives within central government. Our findings suggest that evidence impact varies at different stages of the policy process, and that this is driven by the interplay of contextual factors like policy timing, personal influence, and the competition between different sets of actors and narratives.     

论环境侵权诉讼中的举证责任分配

随着环境侵害案件的不断增多,正确分配举证责任,将有利于法院正确解决纠纷,切实保护当事人的权利。本文将针对环境侵权的特点,重点论述原告和被告各自应对哪些事实承担举证责任,以及原告的举证责任和被告的举证责任之间的关系。     

主观性在环境侵权案件证据和证明中的作用研究

法院在审理环境侵权案件时,往往依赖于专业鉴定、行政标准、专家意见等等客观依据来确定案件事实.但因为环境问题的复杂性,以及民事主体自身举证能力的限制,经常出现双方举证均不充分,法院无法基于现有事实和证据得出结论的情况.此时,法官应当发挥自身能动性,主动应用主观的、甚至是非科学性的因素和手段,包括容忍义务、经验法则、自由心证等等,这些因素无法被赋予客观的标准,它需要法官基于自身的理性以及经验,结合社会一般观念、习惯等因素进行判断.     

The reliability of evidence review methodology in environmental science and conservation

Given the proliferation of primary research articles, the importance of reliable environmental evidence reviews for informing policy and management decisions is increasing. Although conducting reviews is an efficient method of synthesising the fragmented primary evidence base, reviews that are of poor methodological reliability have the potential to misinform by not accurately reflecting the available evidence base. To assess the current value of evidence reviews for decision-making we appraised a systematic sample of articles published in early 2015 (N = 92) using the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence Synthesis Assessment Tool (CEESAT). CEESAT assesses the methodology of policy-relevant evidence reviews according to elements important for objectivity, transparency and comprehensiveness. Overall, reviews performed poorly with a median score of 2.5/39 and a modal score of zero (range 0–30, mean 5.8), and low scores were ubiquitous across subject areas. In general, reviews that applied meta-analytical techniques achieved higher scores than narrative syntheses (median 18.3 and 2.0 respectively), as a result of the latter consistently failing to adequately report methodology or how conclusions were drawn. However, some narrative syntheses achieved high scores, illustrating that the reliability of reviews should be assessed on a case-by-case basis. Given the potential importance of reviews for informing management and policy, as well as research, it is vital that overall methodological reliability is improved. Although the increasing number of systematic reviews and meta-analyses highlight that some progress is being made, our findings suggest little or no improvement in the last decade. To motivate progress, we recommend that an annual assessment of the methodological reliability of evidence reviews be conducted. To better serve the environmental policy and management communities we identify a requirement for independent critical appraisal of review methodology thus enabling decision-makers to select reviews that are most likely to accurately reflect the evidence base.     

多溴代二苯醚化合物的研究进展

多溴代二苯醚(PBDEs)作为防火阻燃剂，在世界范围内被广泛应用，它是一种环境内分泌干扰物，类似于甲状腺素T3、T4。现有的研究认为，PBDEs具有生物累积性。并影响甲状腺，神经和免疫等系统。该文主要对现有的PBDEs研究进展进行了总结，并着重介绍了PBDEs的毒性，以及对人类和生物体的暴露水平及其相关的分析方法。     

The evolutionary continuum of limb function from early theropods to birds

The bipedal stance and gait of theropod dinosaurs evolved gradually along the lineage leading to birds and at some point(s), flight evolved. How and when did these changes occur? We review the evidence from neontology and palaeontology, including pectoral and pelvic limb functional morphology, fossil footprints/trackways and biomechanical models and simulations. We emphasise that many false dichotomies or categories have been applied to theropod form and function, and sometimes, these impede research progress. For example, dichotomisation of locomotor function into ‘non-avian’ and ‘avian’ modes is only a conceptual crutch; the evidence supports a continuous transition. Simplification of pelvic limb function into cursorial/non-cursorial morphologies or flexed/columnar poses has outlived its utility. For the pectoral limbs, even the classic predatory strike vs. flight wing-stroke distinction and separation of theropods into non-flying and flying—or terrestrial and arboreal—categories may be missing important subtleties. Distinguishing locomotor function between taxa, even with quantitative approaches, will always be fraught with ambiguity, making it difficult to find real differences if that ambiguity is properly acknowledged. There must be an ‘interpretive asymptote’ for reconstructing dinosaur limb function that available methods and evidence cannot overcome. We may be close to that limit, but how far can it be stretched with improved methods and evidence, if at all? The way forward is a combination of techniques that emphasises integration of neontological and palaeontological evidence and quantitative assessment of limb function cautiously applied with validated techniques and sensitivity analysis of unknown variables.     

基于证据理论的尾矿库安全评价

在尾矿库安全评价中,各种因素指标之间的关系存在不确定性,而证据理论作为一种处理不确定性的有效工具,已经被广泛应用到很多研究领域。本文尝试应用证据理论解决尾矿库安全评价中的不确定性问题,建立了基于D-S证据理论的尾矿库安全评价模型,并通过实例计算验证了证据理论应用于尾矿库安全评价的可行性和有效性。     

Grooves to tubes: evolution of the venom delivery system in a Late Triassic “reptile”

Venom delivery systems occur in a wide range of extant and fossil vertebrates and are primarily based on oral adaptations. Teeth range from unmodified (Komodo dragons) to highly specialized fangs similar to hypodermic needles (protero- and solenoglyphous snakes). Developmental biologists have documented evidence for an infolding pathway of fang evolution, where the groove folds over to create the more derived condition. However, the oldest known members of venomous clades retain the same condition as their extant relatives, resulting in no fossil evidence for the transition. Based on a comparison of previously known specimens with newly discovered teeth from North Carolina, we describe a new species of the Late Triassic archosauriform Uatchitodon and provide detailed analyses that provide evidence for both venom conduction and document a complete structural series from shallow grooves to fully enclosed tubular canals. While known only from teeth, Uatchitodon is highly diagnostic in possessing compound serrations and for having two venom canals on each tooth in the dentition. Further, although not a snake, Uatchitodon sheds light on the evolutionary trajectory of venom delivery systems in amniotes and provide solid evidence for venom conduction in archosaur-line diapsids.     

海洋环境污染损害司法鉴定及其证据效力探究

海洋环境污染案件的专业性与复杂性凸显出海洋环境污染损害司法鉴定的重要作用.海洋环境污染司法鉴定的证据效力包括证据能力和证明力,经由对鉴定主体、程序及方法等方面展开深入分析,以期规范海洋环境污染司法鉴定有关行为,为污染事件的科学处理奠定基础.     

基于证据理论的烟花爆竹生产经营企业安全评价方法研究

在烟花爆竹生产经营企业的安全评价中,存在着很大的不确定性。证据理论作为一种处理不确定性问题的有效工具,已经被广泛应用到很多领域中。本文建立了烟花爆竹生产经营企业的安全系统风险评价指标体系,并应用证据理论处理烟花爆竹生产经营企业安全评价中的不确定性问题,通过实例验证结果表明基于证据理论对烟花爆竹生产经营企业进行风险评价具有可行性、有效性与实用性。     

Neanderthal medics? Evidence for food, cooking, and medicinal plants entrapped in dental calculus

Neanderthals disappeared sometime between 30,000 and 24,000?years ago. Until recently, Neanderthals were understood to have been predominantly meat-eaters; however, a growing body of evidence suggests their diet also included plants. We present the results of a study, in which sequential thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS) and pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (Py-GC-MS) were combined with morphological analysis of plant microfossils, to identify material entrapped in dental calculus from five Neanderthal individuals from the north Spanish site of El Sidrón. Our results provide the first molecular evidence for inhalation of wood-fire smoke and bitumen or oil shale and ingestion of a range of cooked plant foods. We also offer the first evidence for the use of medicinal plants by a Neanderthal individual. The varied use of plants that we have identified suggests that the Neanderthal occupants of El Sidrón had a sophisticated knowledge of their natural surroundings which included the ability to select and use certain plants.     

Diet and environment 1.2 million years ago revealed through analysis of dental calculus from Europe’s oldest hominin at Sima del Elefante,Spain

Sima del Elefante, Atapuerca, Spain contains one of the earliest hominin fragments yet known in Europe, dating to 1.2 Ma. Dental calculus from a hominin molar was removed, degraded and analysed to recover entrapped remains. Evidence for plant use at this time is very limited and this study has revealed the earliest direct evidence for foods consumed in the genus Homo. This comprises starchy carbohydrates from two plants, including a species of grass from the Triticeae or Bromideae tribe, meat and plant fibres. All food was eaten raw, and there is no evidence for processing of the starch granules which are intact and undamaged. Additional biographical detail includes fragments of non-edible wood found adjacent to an interproximal groove suggesting oral hygiene activities, while plant fibres may be linked to raw material processing. Environmental evidence comprises spores, insect fragments and conifer pollen grains which are consistent with a forested environment.     

New genetic and clinical evidence associated with fetal Beckwith–Wiedemann syndrome

Early detection of Beckwith–Wiedemann syndrome (BWS) is very important since it is very useful regarding counseling of parents concerning the risk of developing embryonic tumors, selection of the mode of delivery due to potential adrenal cysts that might bleed during labor, prevention of neonatal hypoglycemia and even options of pregnancy termination in non-viable fetuses. This report describes the prenatal classic sonographic triad of fetal BWS (omphalocele, macrosomia, macroglossia) and other supporting findings (hepatomegaly, adrenal enlargement) as well as additional postnatal evidence. Also, it demonstrates new molecular genetic evidence potentially associated with the disease (the presence of a novel heterozygous c.358G>T variant of the CDKN1C gene). Importantly, we provide new evidence indicating that elevated levels of the four serum biomarkers (alpha-fetoprotein, beta-human gonadotropin, unconjugated estriol, and inhibin-A) in late first or early second trimester might be strongly suggestive of BWS which may facilitate early detection especially in cases of no obvious anomaly. In conclusion, this study emphasizes on early detection of BWS as early as at 14 weeks of gestation, based on the abnormal rise of the four serum biomarkers together with omphalocele. To the best of our knowledge, this is the earliest prenatal detection of BWS ever reported. Finally, we provide new molecular genetic evidence that is, potentially associated with BWS.     

Raman spectroscopic documentation of Oligocene bladder stone

Discovery of a fossil (30–35 million-year-old) urolith from Early Oligocene deposits in northeastern Colorado provides the earliest evidence for the antiquity of bladder stones. These are spherical objects with a layered phosphatic structure and a hollow center. Each layer is composed of parallel crystals oriented perpendicular to the surface. Macroscopic and microscopic examination and X-ray diffraction analysis, along with comparison with 1,000 contemporary uroliths, were used as evidence in the confirmation of this diagnosis. Raman microspectroscopy verified the presence of organic material between layers, confirming its biologic origin.     

Top-down and Europe-wide versus bottom-up and intra-regional identification of key issues for sustainability impact assessment

Sustainability impact assessment tools aim at optimising the development of policy measures. Here, we present an approach to designing policies for multifunctional land use with application to Europe and its regions. After the 35 environmental, social and economic impact issues of the European Impact Assessment Guidelines were reviewed on the basis of spatiotemporal indicators at both the top-down Europe-wide and bottom-up intra-regional resolution level, cluster analysis identified classes with specific sustainability characteristics and thus regions most likely facing similar sustainability problems. Sensitive region types such as post-industrial zones, mountains, coasts and islands were analysed separately. The results of the cluster analysis were tested against evidence-based information such as UNEP priorities and regional stakeholder evidence. Stakeholder evidence was specifically explored for the land use policy ‘bioenergy promotion’ in Lusatia, Germany. We concluded that these top-down and bottom-up spatiotemporal data classifications with cluster analysis represent useful ex-ante impact assessment tools and need to be supplemented by participatory assessments. This procedure with top-down and bottom-up data analysis, and also participatory evidence, provide a valuable three-step sustainability impact assessment approach in policy making.     

Current controversies in prenatal diagnosis: Expanded NIPT that includes conditions other than trisomies 13, 18, and 21 should be offered

Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) based on analysis of cell free DNA circulating in the maternal plasma has been available clinically to screen for chromosomal abnormalities since 2011. There is significant evidence to suggest that NIPT has revolutionised prenatal screening for the common trisomies 13, 18, and 21. However, the evidence in favour of its extended use to screen for conditions other than these trisomies remains a topic of debate with no national or international organisation supporting clinical implementation for these indications. In the debate presented here – "Expanded NIPT that includes conditions other than trisomies 13, 18, and 21 should be offered" – we will see the pros and cons of screening for a wider range of chromosomal problems. The discussion presented swung the vote from 65% in favour and 35% against before the arguments were voiced to 41% in favour and 59% against. This significant swing in the vote indicates that the majority of our community feel more evidence is required before clinical implementation of extended NIPT.