An economic appraisal of the Australian oil and gas industry

The author assesses Australian oil and gas production within the context of overall domestic energy supply and demand. Future domestic production of petroleum is unlikely to meet more than 60% of domestic demand after this decade, although gas reserves should be adequate until 2000. Important economic issues - leasing, royalties, taxation, pricing, and exploration incentives - and their relationship to future supply and demand, are identified and evaluated.     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.     

Toward a CO2 zero emissions energy system in the Middle East region

Climate change and energy security are global challenges requiring concerted attention and action by all of the world’s countries. Under these conditions, energy supplier and exporter countries in the Middle East region are experiencing further challenges, such as increasing domestic energy demand while energy exports have to concurrently be kept at high levels. Middle East countries process the largest proven oil and gas reserves in the world and contribute a large fraction of the world’s CO₂ emissions from the use of these as fuels both domestically and internationally. This paper addresses different policies that could dramatically change the future course of the Middle East region toward a zero CO₂ emission energy system. To this aim, an integrated energy supply–demand model has been developed to analyze required commitments including renewable energy and energy efficiency targets and the potential of nuclear power, all of which should need to be considered in order to reduce CO₂ emissions by 2100. The results indicate that nearly 43% of the global energy of the Middle East region can be supplied from non-fossil fuel resources in 2100.     

Modelling optimal exploitation of petroleum resources in India

In this paper, the exploitation of petroleum resources in India is analyzed by developing a dynamic optimization modeling framework—PETEX. This model combines the practical aspects in determining optimal rates of extraction of oil and gas from a reservoir with a hybrid approach to estimating the discovery rate of petroleum resources in the future, additionally incorporating a stochastic specification to capture the uncertainty associated with discovery. The model acts as an aid to joint production–investment decision making for the entire supply process from drilling through production and in determining the import requirement to meet the country’s oil demand. The model results and sensitivity analysis suggest an acute requirement of sustained infusion of investment into the various upstream activities at a rate much higher than the current levels in order to bridge the demand—supply gap for crude oil. With the opening up of the Indian economy, it is hoped that the participation of the private sector in upstream activities would increase thereby increasing the investments available for upstream activity.     

Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production1

Elcock, Deborah, 2010. Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):447-460. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00413.x Abstract: This study investigates how meeting domestic energy production targets for both fossil and renewable fuels may affect future water demand. It combines projections of energy production developed by the U.S. Department of Energy with estimates of water consumption on a per-unit basis (water-consumption coefficients) for coal, oil, gas, and biofuels production, to estimate and compare the domestic freshwater consumed. Although total domestic freshwater consumption is expected to increase by nearly 7% between 2005 and 2030, water consumed for energy production is expected to increase by nearly 70%, and water consumed for biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol) production is expected to increase by almost 250%. By 2030, water consumed in the production of biofuels is projected to account for nearly half of the total amount of water consumed in the production of all energy fuels. Most of this is for irrigation, and the West North Central Region is projected to consume most of this water in 2030. These findings identify an important potential future conflict between renewable energy production and water availability that warrants further investigation and action to ensure that future domestic energy demand can be met in an economically efficient and environmentally sustainable manner.     

Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

Australia-Japan — a close relationship

A one-day symposium on global energy problems as they affect Australia and Japan was held in Sydney, 29 October 1979. The sponsors were the Australian Coal Association, the Australian Mining Industry Council, the Uranium Information Centre, the Japanese Embassy, the International Visual Information Centre (Tokyo), and the Japan Trade Centre. More than 300 participants included representatives of the mining industry, universities, financial institutions, and state and federal government offices and organizations from both Australia and Japan. The specific purpose of the symposium was to explore the potential of Japan as a major importer of Australian steaming coal, uranium, liquid natural gas (LNG) and liquid petroleum gas (LPG), and to assess the degree to which Australia could provide the projected Japanese demand for these energy fuels. Australia- Japan Energy Symposium, Sydney, Australia, 29 October 1979.     

The role of the Australian minerals industry in world mineral supplies

Australia is one of the world's main producers and exporters of both fuel and non-fuel minerals. Among the main commodities produced for export are bauxite/alumina, iron ore, and nickel—Australia is also an increasingly important source of supply of black coal, especially for Japan, and is a significant producer and exporter of a number of base metals. Resources are adequate to support a substantial expansion of both non-oil fuels and other minerals. The potential for growth, both in terms of specific commodities and in the overall role of Australia in the world mineral industry, will depend to a very large extent on the cost competitiveness of Australian mining and on continuing inflow of capital.     

Oil and gas reserves of the Middle East and North Africa

A quantitative estimate of the petroleum reserves of the Middle East and North Africa is presented and analysed in terms of the region's ability to meet current market demand for a sweet light crude. Costs of Middle East production are compared with those of other oil-producing regions. With an average costs of US$4/bbl, the Middle East has both the largest oil reserves and the lowest cost oil in the world. While new and improved technology of exploration and production may lessen this price advantage in the future, it will not eliminate it. Because of these two factors, the Middle East will continue to play an important role on the world energy stage well into the next century.     

Anatomy of downstream integration by oil-producing countries

Forwards and backwards integration are natural phenomena in the oil business and it is certainly understandable that producer countries should wish to stabilize their position in this way. However, there are important differences between the present trend of downstream integration from the 'classic' model of the 1960s. There is no interconnection between supply sources or total coverage of the market, so the new approach does nothing to balance supply and demand. The producers need to be very careful to maintain strict commercial criteria for crude supplied to downstream assets and for money invested in downstream assets, otherwise they will merely transfer competition from the crude market to the product market. The best approach is to allow a swap of assets in both the upstream and the downstream on sensible commercial terms.     

Rain Water Harvesting in Bermuda1

Rowe, Mark P., 2011. Rain Water Harvesting in Bermuda. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1219–1227. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00563.x Abstract: Roof‐top rain water harvesting is mandated by law for all buildings in Bermuda and is the primary source of water for domestic supply. The average rate at which rain water is harvested at the typical house with four occupants is, however, insufficient to meet average demand. While just over one‐third of households have access to supplementary water either from mains pipelines or private wells, the majority rely on deliveries from water “truckers” (tankers) to augment their rain water supply. Assuming a reasonably constant daily demand, there is a linear relationship between the “maximum optimum capacity” of a water storage tank and the size of the rain water catchment area, which depends on the characteristics of the rainfall at a given geographic location. A simple spreadsheet model was developed to simulate tank storage levels for various combinations of catchment area, tank capacity, and demand, with an input of actual daily rainfall data for a study period of nearly three years. It was found that for typical cycles of rainfall surpluses and deficits in Bermuda, the tank capacity which there is no benefit in exceeding — the “optimum maximum capacity”— is 0.37 m³ of storage capacity per 1 m² of catchment area. Furthermore, it was concluded that many domestic water storage tanks in Bermuda are larger than necessary, especially so where there is a significant imbalance between rain water supply and demand.     

County‐Scale Rainwater Harvesting Feasibility in the United States: Climate,Collection Area,Density, and Reuse Considerations

Roof rainwater harvesting (RWH) has the potential to augment water supplies for urban and suburban uses throughout the United States (U.S.). Studies of the performance of RWH at the building and city scales in the U.S. are available, but a countrywide overview of the potential performance of RWH at the county scale has not been done before. Three approaches were taken: (1) assess the viability of RWH in terms of the rainfall that could be captured in relation to the water demand in each county (excluding agriculture), (2) evaluate the performance of a “typical” domestic RWH system across all counties with metrics related to its ability to supply the potable and nonpotable demand, and (3) evaluate the effect of adding a 50% rainwater reuse component to the analysis. We find RWH could be a viable supplemental water source in the U.S., particularly in counties of the Pacific Northwest, Central, and Eastern regions (percent demand covered >50%). Low population density counties have the potential to meet their annual water needs with RWH, while high‐density counties could only source a small portion (~20%) of their annual demand with RWH. Typical RWH systems in counties in the Central and Eastern U.S. performed better than in Western counties. Adding a reuse component can be a key factor in making RWH attractive in many areas of the country. This work can inform future water infrastructure investment and planning in the U.S.     

Green energy for the battlefield

Population of the world is growing with increasing rate and it seems that existing fossil fuel energy sources will not be able to meet energy demand in the near future. Energy is not only crucial for civil sector but also it is one of the most important assets in defense sector. Energy for military operations is mostly provided from fossil fuel as it is the case in other sectors; however, fossil fuels have hazardous effects to the environment and cause global environment concerns. These drawbacks of fossil fuels are also valid for battlefield. Furthermore, transportation of fossil fuels causes extra safety and logistics problems in military case. In this study, we developed a hybrid green energy solution with wind, solar, and batteries together to minimize or eliminate the fossil fuel demand for the battlefield. Results of our algorithm are superior to the already used diesel generator solution from the point of view of cost and various other aspects. The novelty of our study stems from applying optimization of hybrid green energy solution to military case with battlefield constraints.     

The outlook for oil

Between now and 2000, the demand for oil is expected to be moderate and the supply abundant. Economic growth is almost twice as slow as in 1973 and requires 25–30% less energy per unit of GNP. The demand for oil is therefore growing at a rate of two to three times slower. Meeting the demand for oil between now and 2000 is within the capability of the oil-producing countries, in many cases with modest additional investment. Gas and coal will be very cost competitive in relation to oil and will serve as a break on future explosive price increases.     

天然气供气业务风险分析与应急预案设计

近年来,天然气消费量迅速增长,天然气领域的投入和天然气储量、产量和贸易量也呈迅速增长态势,并显示出增长的巨大潜力。天然气市场需求量的大幅度增加与国内天然气供给不足造成的供需不平衡,给天然气供气业务带来了极大的挑战。本文根据近两年来天然气供应面临的危机,分别对天然气供气产业链的上、中、下游的突发事件风险进行分析;并针对供气业务中断带来的风险,从突发事件分级、应急处置流程等两个关键要素着手对应急预案进行优化。该研究对完善天然气供气突发事件应急预案、有效快速应对突发事件提供了参考和指导。     

An Assessment of Future Energy Demand in Developing Countries

The statistical data show that the rapid growth in oil and energy demand in less-developed countries (LDCs) can be attributed to the rapid growth in gross domestic products (GDP) and the relatively high energy intensity in LDCs. The statistical analysis confirms that the GDP elasticities of aggregate energy and oil demand are high and the energy price elasticities are relatively low for the 15 LDCs studied. The projection shows that the future oil and aggregate energy demands are likely to increase at fairly rapid rates in LDCs. Furthermore, there are reasons to believe that these high growth rates may be sustained.     

Managing Water Stress: The Logic of Demand Side Infrastructure Planning

Management of water supply in Britain is increasingly facing up to the problems posed by supply-led strategies. Although the eradication of water stress has traditionally been viewed as a techno-managerial problem, with supply being increased to meet rising demand, this is no longer possible as a general solution. Pressures both from government and from voluntary bodies are leading to approaches which manage the level of demand, and which recognize that water may, for various reasons, be in relatively short supply. The issues are illustrated by a case study of a recent tourist development, in which demand side management measures were extensively utilized.     

CURRENT REFINERY PROBLEMS AND ISSUES IN PETROLEUM IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This article discusses the problems facing refinery operations in developing countries and possible solutions to them. The topics covered include security of crude oil supply to the developing countries; difficulties encountered in development of indigenous expertise in refinery operation; refinery capacity and the special problems of maintenance and repair facing refinery operators in the developing parts of the world; and the potential for improved refinery operation through increased international co-operation.     

吉林省采油厂原油含水率分析仪工作场所辐射防护水平调查及分析

通过系统的监测了解吉林地区采油厂原油含水率分析仪的工作场所放射防护现状,为放射源监督管理部门提供参考依据,为保护环境、保护放射工作人员职业健康提供重要保障,为采油厂对辐射装置管理及措施提供依据。采用国家规定的标准方法对吉林省不同工作环境下的5家采油厂的45台原油含水率分析仪的周围剂量当量进行现场监测,对涉及接触原油含水率分析仪的4种不同岗位工作人员进行年有效剂量估算,对接触原油含水率分析仪的202名工作人员进行个人剂量监测。结果表明,原油含水率分析仪的工作场所周围剂量当量及人员受照剂量均满足国家标准要求,剂量分布较均匀,外输岗年有效剂量较小,集输岗年有效剂量较高。吉林省采油厂原油含水率分析仪在正常运行情况下,工作场所基本不会对工作人员造成职业照射,辐射防护状况良好,放射工作人员年有效剂量值均在国家规定限值范围内。