气候变化对植物及植被分布的影响研究进展

准确预测气候变化对植物及植被分布的影响趋势对于科学认识气候变化对生物多样性的影响和对策制定具有重要的意义。近年来,气候变化对植物及植被分布影响研究在我国广泛展开。文章对这些研究所采用的气候情景、预测方法和气候变化等对植物及植被分布的影响趋势进行了总结分析,对存在的问题进行了讨论,对未来的趋势提出了若干展望。总体上,目前所用气候情景比较单一、不同预测方法比较研究不够,对土壤和生物因素考虑不充分、涉及植物种类太少。气候变化将使一些植物分布范围减少、甚至消失,而使另一些植物分布范围则会扩大。未来研究应加强气候情景改进和不同方法的比较研究,充分考虑土壤和生物等因子、加强预测方法检验,同时开展植物物种多样性和丰富度对气候变化响应方面的研究。     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

气候变化对农业影响评价方法研究进展

近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,气候变化的影响评价研究越来越受到各国科学家和政府的重视,特别是对农业的影响评估研究更为重要.文章主要对观测和模拟在气候变化对农业的影响评价研究中的应用进展进行了介绍,并对该领域未来的研究方向进行了展望,认为加强研究极端天气气候事件的影响;发展农业影响评价集成模式;进一步利用区域气候模式嵌套农业影响评价模式对区域气候变化的影响进行评价,并对其影响的不确定性进行评估.     

气候变化对鲁西北平原冬小麦产量的影响及对策

气候变化会导致气候资源发生改变,从而引发粮食安全问题.耦合区域气候模式和作物生长模型,可定量分析气候变化导致的作物产量变动,探讨适宜的田间管理应对措施.研究以冬小麦作为研究对象,以我国粮食主产区之一的鲁西北平原作为研究区域,耦合MIROC-RegCM3区域气候模式和CERES-Wheat作物生长模型,开展A1B温室气体排放情景下,气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响及适应措施研究.结果表明,A1B气候情景下,该区域冬小麦潜在产量会有所下降;在现有管理措施的基础上,可通过培育对春化作用依赖较小的品种、 适当提早播期、 增加越冬水灌溉量等方式保证产量,减少年际间变异.该文研究结果可为应对未来气候变暖、 确保粮食安全提供参考.     

气候变化对大熊猫分布的潜在影响

分析气候变化对动物分布影响,对气候变化下保护生物多样性具有重要意义。文章利用CART(classification and regression tree),分类和回归树模型,采用A1、A2、B1和B2气候变化情景,模拟分析了气候变化对大熊猫分布范围及空间格局的影响。结果显示:气候变化下,大熊猫目前适宜分布范围将缩小,新适宜和总适宜分布范围在1991~2020年时段较大,从1991~2020年到2081~2100年时段呈现缩小趋势,其中A1情景下变化最大,B1情景下最小。气候变化下,大熊猫目前适宜分布区的东部、东北和南部一些适宜范围将不再适宜,新适宜分布区将主要向目前适宜分布区西部一些区域扩展,并且适宜分布区破碎化,在2051~2080年时段程度最高。另外,气候变化下,大熊猫目前适宜、新适宜和总适宜分布区范围与我国年均气温和年降水量变化呈负相关性。多元回归分析表明,大熊猫目前适宜、新适宜和总适宜分布范围随我国年均气温和年降水量增加而减少,其中气温变化影响比降水量变化影响要大。结果说明,气候变化后,近期将使大熊猫目前适宜分布范围减小,新适宜分布范围增加,随气候变化程度增加,新适宜和总适宜分布范围又将减小。     

汽车环境风洞降雨模拟影响因素研究

目的 研究自然界降雨量与汽车环境风洞模拟降雨量之间的关系,得到中国气象条件的雨量设定经验公式,为汽车环境风洞模拟降雨量的设定提供理论依据。方法 理论分析自然界气象降雨和汽车环境风洞模拟降雨的特点和差异,研究影响汽车环境风洞模拟降雨量的因素。结果 在无风条件下,影响汽车环境风洞降雨量的因素有气象降雨量、前挡风玻璃倾角、雨滴直径和车速等。按照车速将降雨分为汽车停止和汽车行驶2种模式,提出结合中国气象条件的汽车环境风洞模拟降雨量的经验公式。结论 在相同降雨等级下,汽车停止状态下的汽车环境风洞降雨量一般大于车辆行驶状态。在气象降雨量等级为短时中雨时,行驶汽车的雨量设定值与车速呈指数增长关系。     

Mainstreaming climate policy: the role of media coverage in Finland

Integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures into other policies is considered to be a precondition for effective climate policies. This paper explores the role of mass media coverage as a potential obstacle or enhancing factor in relation to this mainstreaming of climate policies. The paper presents a quantitative content analysis of the national-level press coverage of climate change from 1990 to 2010, focusing on Finland. The empirical results indicate four major phases of Finnish media coverage of climate change: a definition phase before the Kyoto meeting in 1997, a maturation phase after the Kyoto meeting, climate hype in 2006–2008, and a phase of levelling off that started in late 2008. The results suggest that climate issues have widely permeated various fields of newspaper coverage. This broad-based debate may create and sustain a public agenda potentially favourable to attempts to bring climate policies into the mainstream of other policy domains. However, it also may open doors for unexpected initiatives by various activists and lobbyists that employ climate concern as a tool to advance other interests. The role of mass media has received little attention in studies focusing on the mainstreaming of climate policies. This paper highlights the importance of taking media coverage into account as a key factor in the formulation and implementation of environmental policies aimed at broad-based actions.     

Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO₂. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.     

系统响应气候变化脆弱性定量评价国内研究综述

定量评价气候变化脆弱性是人类采取适应性措施应对全球气候变化,以减少其不利影响的关键和基础。在对气候变化脆弱性有关概念进行讨论,及对国际、国内系统响应气候变化脆弱性评价研究回顾的基础上,对中国近十几来有关气候变化脆弱性定量评价研究的成果从三个方面进行了较为系统的总结：气候情景的模拟预测、系统变化过程的模拟、脆弱性指标的选取及脆弱性层次的划分。最后,从评价对象、技术手段、指标体系、时间尺度等方面探讨了该领域研究的不足及发展方向。     

Long-term,consistent scenarios of emissions,deposition, and climate change in Europe

The aim of this study was to develop consistent scenarios of emissions, climate change and regional air pollution to enable an integrated analysis of the linkage between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe. An integrated modeling framework was developed for this purpose. The framework integrates state-of-the-art models and concepts from the area of climate change and regional air pollution and was supplemented by new modules (e.g. modeling long-term NH₃ emissions in Europe, modeling dispersion and transformation of air pollutants under climate change).Consistent climate and air pollution policies were derived, both driven by the desire to achieve certain environmental goals. According to an analysis of scenarios with various combinations of climate and regional air pollution policies the quantitatively most relevant interactions are the effect of climate change policies on the energy mix and the resulting air pollution emissions. In the long-term the global SO₂ emissions are expected to decrease (again), accordingly their effect on climate will be minor. Tentatively it can be concluded that for regional air pollution the development of the air pollutant emissions is more important than the effect of climate change on the dispersion and chemical transformation of air pollutants.     

An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM Project

This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995 and 2100. Scenarios consisted of trends in emissions, acid deposition, nitrogen deposition and climate change. Critical loads and critical levels were used to assess the impacts of deposition to forest soils and a new analogous concept of “critical climate change” was developed to assess the impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the limitations of the scope and models used in the study, preliminary conclusions were: (1) regional air pollution and climate change may be fairly weakly coupled in the natural environment, i.e. climate change was not found to have a large impact on the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to regional air pollution, nor on the distribution of deposition; nor did regional air pollution (in the form of sulfate aerosols) have a significant impact on climate change in Europe; (2) however, regional air pollution and climate change may be strongly coupled in the “policy” environment. It was estimated that virtually all of Europe at mid-century might be affected by either regional air pollution or climate change, or both, and this will require a strong policy response. Moreover, the indirect effects of climate policies were found to reduce the costs of controlling air pollution emissions by more than 50%, suggesting a strong potential financial linkage between policies to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.     

中亚地区气候生产潜力时空变化特征

根据中亚5 国100 个气象站1901-2000 年月平均温度和降水资料,运用Miami、Thornthwaite Memorial 模型对中亚地区气候生产潜力进行了计算,用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall 法、并结合ArcGIS 和SPSS 对其时空变化特征及驱动力进行了分析。结果表明：①中亚地区100 a 降水气候生产潜力（Yr）和蒸散气候生产潜力（Ye）均呈逐渐增加的趋势,温度气候生产潜力（Yt）趋势相反,Yr 和Ye 均发生了4 次突变,Yt 没有发生突变;②气候生产潜力区域差异明显,其中,Yt 呈从西南向东北减少的趋势,Yr 和Ye 变化比较复杂,大致具有东部大于西部的规律;③增温增湿的气候变化趋势有利于中亚气候生产潜力的提高,中亚气候生产潜力对增湿的响应更敏感。     

气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦产量对气候要素变化的响应

论文在分析安徽省近47 a(1961-2007年)来气候要素及冬小麦产量变化特征,确定产量突变点的基础上,采用相关分析,提取影响产量形成的气候因子,构建安徽省冬小麦气候产量模型,并利用该模型定量地估算了近47 a来气候要素变化对冬小麦产量的贡献率。结果表明:安徽省冬小麦生长季内的平均气温增暖趋势明显,降水量无明显变化趋势,但年际波动大,日照时数呈显著下降趋势。越冬期最高气温、返青期最低气温和灌浆期日照时数与产量呈显著正相关,灌浆期降水量与产量呈显著负相关。近47 a来,气候要素变化对冬小麦产量存在微弱的负贡献,贡献率为-5.89％。冬小麦生长季内一定程度的暖干化条件有利于产量的增加。     

人类干预下的气候资源演化

从温室气体排放与全球气候变化、土地利用与区域气候变化、城市化与城市气候变化、重大工程建设对气候的影响几个方面论述了人类干预下的气候资源变化。     

未来气候情景下中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度变化

选取中国亚热带地区273个气象站点1961-2005年逐日气象资料,结合IPCC SRES A2情景下未来亚热带地区温度、降水模拟数据,综合考虑柑桔气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建柑桔的风险度模型,对未来中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险性变化进行了研究。结果表明,中国亚热带地区柑桔风险度出现了不同速度和形式的趋势性变化,近46 a来,柑桔气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势,尤其以20世纪80年代初以来增加最快;同时中国亚热带地区柑桔生产的气候风险性对全球气候变化的响应也存在着区域分异性,中国亚热带柑桔气候风险在其北部边缘地带和西部高山地区风险度是降低的,在中部和南部风险度是升高的,尤其以中部地带升高最快。     

气候变化对中国海洋经济可持续发展的影响

为评估气候变化及实施减排政策对中国海洋经济的影响,本文构建了中国海洋经济社会经济核算矩阵(marine social accounting matrix,MSAM),并以此为数据基础构建中国海洋经济可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型,并将该模型与气候变化影响模型相结合,从而实现了从气候变化对自然系统的影响到对经济系统影响的转化。论文设计了实施和不实施温室气体减排两种政策时的可能的6种气候变化情景。各情景的模拟分析表明:海平面上升同时考虑天文潮最高潮位、同时考虑最大台风暴潮和最大天文潮耦合影响两种子情景下,中国实施减排政策对沿海GDP的影响要分别比不实施减排政策低0.19%和0.12%;海平面上升叠加天文潮、风暴潮3种子情景下,实施减排政策对海洋经济的影响要分别比不实施减排政策低1.67%、0.72%、0.37%。     

Widening the scope of policies to address climate change: directions for mainstreaming

Both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change require actions to be taken in many sectors of society, but so far this is hardly happening. This paper suggests possibilities for widening climate change policy by strengthening inter-linkages between climate policies and various relevant policy areas to mainstream climate change concerns. It argues that, if these inter-linkages can be strengthened and policy coherence is improved, the effectiveness of climate policy can be enhanced while also supporting these other policy areas. The contention in this paper is that improved policy coherence and mainstreaming requires climate policies to go beyond the UNFCCC framework to realise its full potential and to better deal with possible trade-offs. The potential benefits in the policy domains of poverty reduction, rural development and agriculture, disaster management, energy security, air quality and trade, and finance are examined, and the institutional and organisations linkages highlighted. Finally, opportunities for mainstreaming are identified to make better use of possible synergies between climate and related policy areas.     

气候变化对湿地景观格局的影响研究综述

气候变化是影响湿地景观格局变化的主要自然因素。文章从气候变化对湿地水资源面积、湿地土地利用格局、湿地植被空间格局及湿地生物多样性格局的影响研究等方面进行了综述,并对完善气候变化下湿地景观格局变化的研究方法和技术手段进行了探讨。指出:应用气候模型进行未来气候预测时,应合理选择气候变化情景,并确保不同模型的时空尺度匹配;应用"3S"技术提取湿地类型信息、观测湿地土地覆盖变化时要确保信息的精度,不同来源的数据必须采取制图综合等手段;实现气候变化下湿地景观结构与生态过程相结合的动态格局分析。     

African voters indicate lack of support for climate change policies

Will African voters support climate change policies? By 2020, the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund intends to provide tens of billions of dollars per year to African nations to support climate adaptation and mitigation policies. It is widely assumed that African citizens will support implementation of these climate policies. We observe the opposite result. In this article – across two experimental studies – we find evidence that Sub-Saharan African politicians who commit to climate change policies may lose electoral support. Electorally important swing voters with weak party affiliations are least likely to support party statements about climate change. Interviews with standing elected officials from Malawi and South Africa corroborate our experimental findings. The combined results suggest voter preferences may hinder the successful implementation of climate change policy in Sub-Saharan African democracies.     

On integration of policies for climate and global change

Currently envisaged mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions will be insufficient to appreciably limit climate change and its impacts. Adaptation holds the promise of ameliorating the impacts on a small subset of systems being affected. There is no question that both will be needed. However, climate change is only part of a broader multi-stress setting of global through to local changes. Privileging climate related policies over other concerns leads to tragic outcomes. Climate policies need to be designed for and integrated into this broader and challenging context. This paper focuses on placing climate change within the broader context of global change and the importance of aligning climate policy objectives with the myriad other policies that still need to be implemented if our primary goal is improving human welfare rather than limiting our focus to climate change and its impacts.