基于深度学习的人工智能空气质量预报系统构建

针对现有空气质量预报系统存在预报精度低、人工经验辅助、适用范围单一等问题,利用深度学习方法在分析数据内在特征方面表现出的优异性能,结合多源数据融合技术,设计了基于深度学习的空气质量预报系统实现方案。通过对多源数据集的实时制作更新、分析空气质量演变的时空特性、定义和拟合深度学习模型并部署于服务器等关键技术的研究,最终实现了空气质量的多尺度、高精度实时预报服务和预报结果可视化服务。应用结果表明,基于深度学习的空气质量预报系统具有更高的预报精度和更优良的应用效果,可提高预报效率,为空气质量预报服务提供一种新型、高效的实现方式。     

重大活动空气质量保障预报会商机制及经验探讨

重大活动空气质量保障预报会商已经成为保障过程中的重要环节,旨在以精细化空气质量预报为环境管理部门制定高效可行的区域大气污染管控措施提供关键技术依据。预报会商机制可有效规范区域联动预报会商的开展,在多个重大活动空气质量保障中,预报会商机制已日益完善,尤其是在强化立体化监测网、开展多技术组协同作业、建立多维预报会商流程、提升多种重点污染物预报能力等方面积累了大量宝贵的实践经验。该文首次系统性探讨国内空气质量保障预报会商机制和经验,以期为今后承办重大活动的地区开展空气质量保障预报会商提供借鉴。     

“Ox增减量”O3人工订正预报方法与应用

为满足环境管理部门"O₃污染过程不漏、AQI类别准确和AQI范围预报准确"的要求,基于大气箱式模型和相似案例分析,引入O_x指标原创性提出"O_x增减量"O₃人工订正预报方法。介绍了该方法的预报思路、预报要点和步骤、历史相似案例库构建与基于大气条件预报的判别分析、方法普适性和局限性等,以期为提高区域、城市O₃业务预报准确率提供技术参考。以东部沿海城市青岛市为研究案例,结果显示,2020年6—9月24 h人工订正AQI类别预报、AQI范围预报准确率分别为91%和68%,比同期业务化运行的WRF-Chem数值模式预报准确率分别提高19%和25%,应用该预报方法可有效提高O₃污染过程预报准确率。     

“城市空气污染预报方法及其应用技术研究”通过鉴定

20 0 0年 3月 6日 ,国家环保总局科技司在北京主持召开了国家环保总局科技发展项目“城市空气污染预报方法及其应用技术研究”鉴定会 ,该项目通过了专家鉴定。该项目由中国环境监测总站与中科院大气所、天津市环境监测中心、沈阳市环境监测站等单位合作完成 ,项目研究过程中借鉴、吸收了国内外先进的预报模式 ,并结合我国城市空气质量实测情况 ,采取“两条腿走路”的办法 ,研究开发了适合我国城市空气变化情况的动力学数值预报和统计学预报方法 ,在天津、沈阳两试点城市建立了预报运行软件系统 ,已取得了较好的应用效果。由中国科学院院士陶…     

2018年11—12月北京市重污染天气过程数值预报能力评估

2018年11—12月北京市发生了4次以PM_2.5为首要污染物的重污染天气过程,为了分析数值模型对4次重污染过程的预报能力,将CMAQ模式提前1~7 d对北京市PM_2.5的小时预报结果与观测结果对比,分别从离散统计和分类统计2个方面评估CMAQ模式对4次重污染天气过程的预报效果,并简要分析了偏差产生的气象方面原因。结果表明：CMAQ模式提前1~6 d对重污染天气过程的预报显示出良好的性能,为日常业务预报提供了可借鉴的参考信息,可较好地预报出PM_2.5小时浓度变化趋势和浓度水平,离散统计结果显示提前1~4 d的预报结果好于提前5~7 d,相关系数r基本大于0.8,但有一定程度的低估趋势;分类统计结果显示不同预报时效预报准确率大于70%,探测准确率高于55%,部分时段可以达到80%~90%,对人工预报起到了良好的参考作用;输入的气象场的变化及其偏差对于重污染的起始时间、持续时间及清除时间有一定的影响,对相对湿度预报偏小和风速预报偏大是造成CMAQ模式低估的一个重要原因。     

国家水环境质量预报预警研究进展及业务发展思路

开展国家水环境质量预报预警工作是生态环境治理能力现代化的重要部分,是统筹山水林田湖草系统治理的重要抓手。文章介绍了国内外水质模型的研究进展,并概述了国内外水质预报预警系统研究进展,在此基础上分析目前我国水质预报预警方面存在的不足,并提出了国家水环境质量预报预警业务发展的初步思路。我国水质预报预警体系建设要以技术体系和业务体系为保障,以水质模型和面源污染模型为支撑,依托水环境质量预报预警决策支持平台,开展环境监管业务化应用、治理决策精细化支撑、污染事故科学化处置和数据产品社会化服务4种业务应用,逐步建成架构统一、业务协同、资源共享、上下游联动的全国-流域-省级-城市四级水环境质量预报预警网络。     

电子地形图的MATLAB实现及其在空气质量预报工作中的应用

电子地形图在空气质量预报等工作中有重要应用价值,在数据可视化展示方面也具有显著优势,此外利用电子地形图进行数值计算能够为大气污染治理部门提供决策依据。文章研究利用MATLAB软件制作电子地形图的方法,并探索其在空气质量预报等工作领域的应用。     

关于建立健全我国环境健康风险评估制度的思考

环境健康风险评估是生态环境和卫生健康管理决策制定的重要依据之一,从政策制定、技术规范、制度试点、能力建设和管理应用等方面分析了我国环境健康风险评估工作现状。指出,我国环境健康风险评估制度存在各部门对环境健康风险评估的认识偏差,部门职责不清晰,管理需求不明确,技术体系不完善等问题。提出,生态环境和卫生健康部门应结合各自职责与需求制定相关工作办法,开展试点探索,条件成熟时制定专门法律;厘清生态环境和卫生健康部门在环境健康风险管理中的职责;紧密围绕生态环境和卫生健康管理需求,开展环境健康风险评估工作;借鉴国外经验,完善环境健康风险评估技术规范体系;从机构设置、技术队伍培训、合作共享、学术交流等方面提升环境健康风险评估能力。     

兰州市空气质量预报系统研究

从潜势预报、统计预报、数值预报三方面介绍了兰州市空气质量预报系统的研究方法和结构特点,并检验分析了2001年4～10月兰州市空气质量预报,结果表明,此系统具有较强的预报能力,适用于兰州市空气质量预报业务。     

区域环境空气质量预报的一般方法和基本原则

为响应公众服务和环境管理对环境空气质量预报的迫切需求,中国环境监测总站率先在京津冀区域开展了区域环境空气质量预报测试。结合目前积累的预报经验和国内外相关研究,探索出区域空气质量预报的一般方法和基本原则,讨论了客观订正环节中大气扩散条件、污染源排放、物理化学过程和空气质量变化规律的分析方法及系统建立、结果确定、天气控制形势分析和信息表述等基本原则,以期为各地开展环境空气质量预报提供技术参考。     

加强污染源自动监测设备运行监管的若干思考

从日常监管、运营服务、设备性能等方面分析了污染源自动监测设备市场现状,针对在实际工作中存在的问题,从设备厂商、污染源企业、环保部门的角度提出了加强污染源自动监测设备运行监管的解决思路。     

江苏省国家重点监控企业不达标原因及对策

统计了2014年以来江苏省国控企业不达标情况。从企业和环境保护部门两方面对国控企业不达标原因进行了分析。指出,企业应承担起污染治理的主体责任,健全企业环境保护制度;加强污染治理技术的研发及提高运维管理队伍的专业化水平,以适应新环保法的要求;环境监管部门强化执法宣传及违法行为的查处力度,让企业主动守法;加强国控企业环境信息的公开及宣传力度,形成良好的社会公众监督氛围;省级人民政府应积极落实国家生态文明建设的总规划,开启新的里程碑。     

The political economy of EIA in Guangzhou

Using Guangzhou (Canton) as an example, this article examines major political economy problems regarding environmental impact assessment (EIA) in China: (1) difficulties for regulatory agencies to impose EIA procedures and requirements on projects that are sponsored or supported by other government agencies; (2) a lack of strong political constituencies that support environmental protection efforts; and (3) conflicts of interest created by regulatory agencies that attempt to finance their operations through providing services to the regulated for fees.     

瑞典的水环境保护经验及对我国的启示

介绍了瑞典的水环境保护法规政策、水环境保护机构、污水处理体系及其在水环境保护方面的特色做法。结合目前我国水环境管理所处的阶段,从顶层设计、宣传教育、项目管理、污染防治等方面,总结了瑞典经验对我国水环境保护工作的启示。     

Canadian insights: The challenges of an integrated environmental assessment framework

The paper draws results from a review of literature to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the integrated environmental assessment framework in Canada with respect to the inclusion of health impact assessment. Insights include the legislative nature, rigid structure and priority for the natural environment that may restrict progress and the pool of government agencies that need to be convinced of the benefits of health impact assessment that may provide a strong structure for compliance in the long term.     

Optimal Expansion of Water Quality Monitoring Network by Fuzzy Optimization Approach

River reaches are frequently classified with respect to various mode of water utilization depending on the quantity and quality of water resources available at different location. Monitoring of water quality in a river system must collect both temporal and spatial information for comparison with respect to the preferred situation of a water body based on different scenarios. Designing a technically sound monitoring network, however, needs to identify a suite of significant planning objectives and consider a series of inherent limitations simultaneously. It would rely on applying an advanced systems analysis technique via an integrated simulation-optimization approach to meet the ultimate goal. This article presents an optimal expansion strategy of water quality monitoring stations for fulfilling a long-term monitoring mission under an uncertain environment. The planning objectives considered in this analysis are to increase the protection degree in the proximity of the river system with higher population density, to enhance the detection capability for lower compliance areas, to promote the detection sensitivity by better deployment and installation of monitoring stations, to reflect the levels of utilization potential of water body at different locations, and to monitor the essential water quality in the upper stream areas of all water intakes. The constraint set contains the limitations of budget, equity implication, and the detection sensitivity in the water environment. A fuzzy multi-objective evaluation framework that reflects the uncertainty embedded in decision making is designed for postulating and analyzing the underlying principles of optimal expansion strategy of monitoring network. The case study being organized in South Taiwan demonstrates a set of more robust and flexible expansion alternatives in terms of spatial priority. Such an approach uniquely indicates the preference order of each candidate site to be expanded step-wise whenever the budget limitation is sensitive in the government agencies.     

A method for evaluating the funding of components of natural resource and conservation projects

Many public and private entities such as government agencies and private foundations have missions related to the improvement, protection, and sustainability of the environment. In pursuit of their missions, they fund projects with related outcomes. Typically, the funding scene consists of scarce funding dollars for the many project requests. In light of funding limitations and funder's search for innovative funding schemes, a method to support the allocation of scarce dollars among project components is presented. The proposed scheme has similarities to methods in the project selection literature but differs in its focus on project components and its connection to and enumeration of the universe of funding possibilities. The value of having access to the universe is demonstrated with illustrations. The presentation includes Excel implementations that should appeal to a broad spectrum of project evaluators and reviewers. Access to the space of funding possibilities facilitates a rich analysis of funding alternatives.     

Institutionalizing sustainable development: Experiences in five countries

A multinational collaborative study during the summer of 1983 addressed organizational alternatives in natural systems management. Participants were particularly interested in ways different governments attempted to resolve the disparity between the interconnected quality of nature and the compartmentalized structure of bureaucracies. Five patterns of organization have evolved to meet this challenge: mission agencies managing ecosystems; independent or interagency central environmental units: environmental units within mission agencies; environmental components within central planning units; and regional superagencies. The systems developed by five nations—the United States, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand—are analyzed and compared in terms of these five patterns.     

Theory and practice of EIA implementation: A comparative study of three developing countries

This article offers a conceptual framework for analyzing institutional processes and performance outcome of EIA implementation for developing countries. Eight classes of participants in the EIA process are identified: (1) responsible agency; (2) action proponent; (3) preparer; (4) review agency; (5) rule-setting agency; (6) concerned agencies; (7) general public; and (8) licensing agency. Five types of performance outcome are suggested that may follow the introduction of EIA into a national planning system. These include EIA as (1) a fully internalized element of the planning process, (2) a support for a position of advocacy for the environment, (3) a process of adjustment among conflicting goals, (4) a process to remedy prior environmental damage, and (5) a perfunctory endorsement of public or private actions. Using these categories, the EIA system of the Philippines, Korea, and Brazil are analyzed. Three aspects of EIA implementation are compared: national development planning and environmental goals; institutional structure; and performance evaluation. Based on this analysis, the author concludes that while EIA in developing countries is being hampered in its early stages by institutional factors, there are some specific policies that, if adopted by national governments and international aid agencies, would enhance the integration of EIA into the planning and decision-making process and make EIA a more effective tool for environmental protection in the developing world.     

The measurement procedure in the SEMONT monitoring system

The measurement procedure of the open area in situ electric field strength is presented, acquiring the real field data for testing of the Serbian electromagnetic field monitoring network (SEMONT) and its Internet portal. The SEMONT monitoring system introduces an advanced approach of wireless sensor network utilization for the continuous supervision of overall and cumulative level of electromagnetic field over the observed area. The aim of the SEMONT system is to become a useful tool for the national and municipal agencies for the environmental protection, regarding the electromagnetic pollution monitoring and the exposure assessment of the general population. Considering the public concern on the potentially harmful effects of the long-term exposure to electromagnetic radiation, as well as the public transparency principle that is incorporated into the Serbian law on non-ionizing radiation protection, the SEMONT monitoring system is designed for the long-term continuous monitoring, presenting real-time measurement results, and corresponding exposure assessment over the public Internet network.