Critical Loads and Dynamic Modelling to Assess European Areas at Risk of Acidification and Eutrophication

European critical loads and novel dynamic modelling data have been compiled under the LRTAP Convention by the Coordination Centre for Effects. In 2000 9.8% of the pan-European and 20.8% of the EU25 ecosystem area were at risk of acidification. For eutrophication (nutrient N) the areas at risk were 30.1 and 71.2%, respectively. Dynamic modelling results reveal that 95% of the area at risk of acidification could recover by 2030 provided acid deposition is reduced according to present legislation. Insight into the timing of effects of exceedances of critical loads for nutrient N necessitates the further development of dynamic models.     

Modelling Acidification and Recovery of Swedish Lakes

The MAGIC model was calibrated to 143 lakes in Sweden, all of which are monitored in Swedish national monitoring programmes conducted by the University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU). Soil characteristics of the lake catchments were obtained from the National Survey of Forest Soils and Vegetation also carried out by SLU. Deposition data were provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The model successfully simulated the observed lake and soil chemistry at 133 lakes and their catchments. The fact that 85% of the lakes calibrated successfully without being treated in an individual way suggests that data gathered by the national monitoring programmes are suitable for modelling of soil and surface water recovery from acidification. The lake and soil chemistry data were then projected into the future under the deposition scenario based on emission reductions agreed in the Gothenburg protocol. Deposition of sulphur (sea salt corrected) was estimated to decrease from 1990 to 2010 by 65–73%; deposition of nitrogen was estimated to decrease by 53%. The model simulated relatively rapid improvements in lake water chemistry in response to the decline in deposition from 1990 to 2010, but the improvements levelled off once deposition stabilised at the lower value. There was a major improvement of simulated lake water charge balance acid neutralising capacity (ANC) from 1990 to 2010 in all lakes. The modelled lakes were divided into acidification sensitive and non-sensitive. The modelled sensitive lakes are representative of 20% of the most sensitive lakes in Sweden. By 2010, the ANC in the sensitive lakes was 10 to 50 μeq L^-1 below estimated pre-industrial levels and did not increase much further from 2010 to 2040. Soils at the majority of the modelled catchments continued to lose base cations even after the simulated decline in acid deposition was complete, i.e. after the year 2010. Based on this model prediction, the acidification of the Swedish soils will in general not be reversed by the deposition reduction experienced over the last 10 years and expected to occur by the year 2010.     

Modeling Afforestation and the Underlying Uncertainties

A dynamic model of the carbon budget of an oak forest ecosystem that takes into account forest stand age was developed. A numerical experiment was designed to simulate the afforestation process, and a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to determine how parameter uncertainties and environmental variability influence the result. It was found that while the total amount of carbon stored in the ecosystem increases from 1.9 kg C/m² to 4.4 kg C/m² over the following 20 years, the relative standard deviation increases from 9 to 21%. The contribution of varying climate and carbon dioxide parameters to total uncertainty is substantial; for example, the standard deviation at the 10th modeling year for phytomass doubles and the uncertainties of the soil pool and total accumulated carbon increase by a factor of nearly 1.4, while the uncertainty of the litter pool stays almost at the same level.     

Uncertainties in Large Scale Assessments of Critical Load Exceedances

In the 1999 Gothenburg protocol to the UN/ECE LRTAP Convention andin the negotiations for an EU acidification strategy the area withexceedances of critical loads has been the preferred measure forenvironmental impacts. The aim of this study has been to assessthe influence of the uncertainty and spatial variation of both thecritical loads and deposition values on the calculated area withexceedances of critical loads. This has been done on a nationalscale for Denmark and on the European scale based on the dataincluded in the RAINS model. It is demonstrated that includinguncertainty and spatial variation in exceedance calculations, ingeneral gives larger exceeded area for the critical load ofacidity, CL(A). The picture for the critical load of nutrientnitrogen, CL_nut(N), is more mixed because of the higherproportion of exceeded areas. A further point of interest is thepossibility of validating relationships between critical loadexceedances and observable damage based on large scale monitoringand model data. It is demonstrated that it will probably not bepossible to use exceedance calculations on European scale as basisfor validation exercises, linking exceedances to observable damage.     

Temporal Trends in Water Chemistry in the Turkey Lakes Watershed Ontario,Canada, 1982-1999

The Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) was established in 1980 as asite for study of the ecosystem effects of acidic deposition, andsince then there has been 40% reduction in North AmericanSO₂ emissions. Monitoring records for bulk deposition,shallow and deep ground water, two headwater streams and two lakeoutflows have been tested to identify statistically significantmonotonic trends. The TLW appears to be responding to decliningacidifying emissions because the most prevalent chemical trendacross sample types/stations was decreasing SO₄ ^2-. Increasing pH was detected in four of the seven data sets, butonly the H⁺ decrease in bulk deposition was of a magnitudeto be an important ionic compensation for the SO₄ ^2-decline. There is little evidence of acidification recovery inTLW waters however. Increasing alkalinity was found only in theoutflow of the penultimate lake of the basin, and in fact, deepground water and the other lake outflow had decreasing alkalinitytrends (i.e., continuing acidification). For the surface waterstations, the greater part of the ionic compensation fordeclining SO₄ ^2- was decreasing base cations, and as aresult, these waters are probably becoming more dilute with time,although only the headwater streams exhibited decliningconductivity. Five of seven data sets had increasing dissolvedorganic carbon concentrations. Increasing NO₃ ^- wasimportant in ground waters. Drought has strongly influencedtrends and delayed recovery by mobilizing S stored in catchmentwetlands and/or soils.     

A Novel Environmental Quality Criterion for Acidification in Swedish Lakes – An Application of Studies on the Relationship Between Biota and Water Chemistry

The recovery from acidification has led to the demand for more precise criteria for classification of acidification. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency has revised Sweden’s Ecological Quality Criteria for acidification to improve the correlation between the chemical acidification criteria and biological effects. This paper summarises the most relevant findings from several of the studies commissioned for this revision. The studies included data on water chemistry in 74 reference lakes in southern Sweden with data on fish in 61 of the lakes, as well as data on littoral fauna in 48 lakes. We found that the acidity variable most strongly correlated to the biota was the median pH from the current year. Our results probably do not reflect the mechanisms behind the negative effects of acidity on the biota, but are fully relevant for evaluation of monitoring data. The biogeochemical models used for predicting acidification reference conditions generate a pre-industrial buffering capacity. In order to get an ecologically more relevant criteria for acidification based on pH, we transferred the estimated change in buffering capacity into a corresponding change in pH. A change of 0.4 units was defined as the threshold for acidification. With this criterion a considerably lower number of Swedish lakes were classified as acidified when compared with the present Ecological Quality Criteria.     

Influence of Traffic Emissions Estimation Variability on Urban Air Quality Modelling

The main objective of this work is to analyse how uncertainties in emission data of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), originated from road traffic, influence the model prediction of ozone (O₃) concentration fields. Different methods to estimate emissions were applied and results were compared in order to obtain their variability. Based on these data, different emission scenarios were compiled for each pollutant considering the minimum and the maximum values of the estimated emission range. These scenarios were used as input to the MAR-IV mesoscale modelling system. Simulations have been performed for a summer day in the Northern Region of Portugal. The different approaches to estimate NO_x and VOC traffic emissions show a significant variability of absolute values and of their spatial distribution. Comparison of modelling results obtained from the two scenarios presents a dissimilarity of 37% for ozone concentration fields as a response of the system to a variation in the input emission data of 63% for NO_x and 59% for VOC. Far beyond all difficulties and approximations, the developed methodology to build up an emission data base shows to be consistent and an useful tool in order to turn applicable an air quality model. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of the model to input data should be considered when it is used as a decision support tool.     

Modelling Seasonal Dynamics from Temporal Variation in Agricultural Practices in the UK Ammonia Emission Inventory

Most ammonia (NH₃) emission inventories have been calculated on an annual basis and do not take into account the seasonal variability of emissions that occur as a consequence of climate and agricultural practices that change throughout the year. When used as input to atmospheric transport models to simulate concentration fields, these models therefore fail to capture seasonal variations in ammonia concentration and dry and wet deposition. In this study, seasonal NH₃ emissions from agriculture were modelled on a monthly basis for the year 2000, by incorporating temporal aspects of farming practice. These monthly emissions were then spatially distributed using the AENEID model (Atmospheric Emissions for National Environmental Impacts Determination). The monthly model took the temporal variation in the magnitude of the ammonia emissions, as well as the fine scale (1-km) spatial variation of those temporal changes into account to provide improved outputs at 5-km resolution. The resulting NH₃ emission maps showed a strong seasonal emission pattern, with the highest emissions during springtime (March and April) and the lowest emissions during summer (May to July). This emission pattern was mainly influenced by whether cattle were outside grazing or housed and by the application of manures and fertilizers to the land. When the modelled emissions were compared with measured NH₃ concentrations, the comparison suggested that the modelled emission trend corresponds fairly well with the seasonal trend in the measurements. The remaining discrepancies point to the need to develop functional parametrisations of the interactions with climatic seasonal variation.     

Modelling Change in Ground Vegetation Response to Acid and Nitrogen Pollution, Climate Change and Forest Management at in Sweden 1500–2100 a.d.

The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification, soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants, above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden, four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management on plant biodiversity in forested areas.     

Long Term Trends in Sulphur and Nitrogen Deposition in Europe and the Cause of Non-linearities

Emissions of sulphur and oxidized nitrogen compounds in Europe have been reduced following a series of control measures during the last two decades. These changes have taken place during a period in which the primary gases and the wet deposition throughout Europe were extensively monitored. Since the end of the 1970s, for example land based sulphur emissions declined by between 90 and 70% depending on the region. Over the same period the total deposition of sulphur and its partitioning into wet and dry deposition have declined, but the spatial pattern in the reduction in deposition differs from that of emission and has changed with time. Such non-linearities in the emission-deposition relationship are important to understand as they complicate the process of assessing the effects of emission reduction strategies. Observed non-linearities in terrestrial sulphur emission-deposition patterns have been identified in north west Europe due to increases in marine emissions, and are currently slowing the recovery of freshwater ecosystems. Changes in the relative amounts of SO₂ and NH₃ in air over the last two decades have also changed the affinity of terrestrial surfaces for SO₂ and have therefore changed the deposition velocity of SO₂ over substantial areas. The consequence of this effect has been the very rapid reduction in ambient SO₂ concentration in some of the major source areas of Europe, where NH₃ did not change much. Interactions between the different pollutants, generating non-linearities are now being incorporated in long-range transport models to simulate the effects of historical emission trends and to provide projections into the future. This paper identifies non-linearities in emission deposition relationships for sulphur and nitrogen compounds in Europe using data from the EMEP long-rang transport model and measured concentration fields of the major ions in precipitation and of SO₂ and NO₂ in surface air.     

Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

Long-term Trends in Surface Water Quality of Five Lakes in Japan

Since 1983, the Ministry of the Environment of Japan has conducted nation-wide acid deposition surveys. To investigate the effects of acid deposition on surface water, we used the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test to find temporal trends in pH, alkalinity, and electrical conductivity (EC) in more than 10 years of data collected from five lakes and their catchments (Lake Kuttara: northernmost; Lake Kamakita: near Tokyo; Lake Ijira: central; Lake Banryu: western; and Lake Unagiike: southernmost). The pH of Lake Ijira water has declined slightly since the mid-1990s, corresponding with the downward trends seen in the pH and alkalinity of the river water flowing into the lake. There were significant upward trends in the EC of both the lake and stream water; the same trends were also found for concentrations. These trends show evidence of acidification due to atmospheric deposition, and this is the first such finding in Japan based on significant long-term trends. Lake Ijira is located about 40 km north of the Chukyo industrial area near Nagoya. The annual depositions of H⁺, nss-, and in Lake Ijira were among the highest of all deposition monitoring sites, suggesting that this is the main cause of the significant acidification observed in Lake Ijira. No significant trends suggesting acidification were observed in any of the other lake catchments in spite of the significant upward trends in EC. Upward trends in pH and alkalinity at Lake Banryu and upward trends in alkalinity at Lake Kamakita were detected, but no change in pH or alkalinity at Lake Kuttara and Lake Unagiike was observed.     

LCA of integrated MSW management systems: case study of the Bologna District

LCA as a decision-supporting tool in planning integrated municipal solid waste management is not, as yet, widely used in Italy. This paper presents a study concerning the application of the LCA methodology to support the development of the new waste management plan for the Bologna District. The main goal of the study was to show decision-makers at the political level the benefits obtainable with the use of LCA, in terms of the identification and quantification of the potential environmental impacts of different waste management strategies. The integrated waste management system of the Bologna District includes waste collection and transport, sorting, recycling, composting, incineration and landfilling. Three scenarios, referring to 2006 and assuming the presence of 950,000 inhabitants and the production of approximately 566,000 t of waste in the district, have been compared. A detailed model has been developed in order to capture effects related to the waste fraction from separated collection and to the different waste treatments. The discussion of the results has focussed in particular on the greenhouse effect and the acidification potential. On the basis of the results obtained, the analysis of an additional scenario characterised by a further increase in separated collection has been put forward.     

Nitrate Leaching from Moorland Soils: Can Soil C:N Ratios Indicate N Saturation?

Links between forest floor carbon:nitrogen (C:N) ratios, atmospheric N deposition and nitrate leaching into surface waters have been reported for forest ecosystems, but similar studies have not been reported previously for the equivalent compartments of moorland ecosystems in Great Britain, despite the importance of nitrate in contributing to the acidification of moorland streams and lakes in British uplands. In this paper, the relationships between the C:N ratio of moorland soil surface organic matter, N deposition, and nitrate leaching are explored for 13 soils in four moorland catchments. Although there is spatial variability in the C:N ratio of soils, major differences are apparent between soils and especially between catchments. The C:N ratio appears to be inversely related to modelled inorganic N deposition and, to a lesser degree, measured nitrate leaching, for three of the four catchments studied (Allt a'Mharcaidh, Afon Gwy, and Scoat Tarn). Nitrification may make an important contribution to nitrate leaching at the two higher deposition sites. At the fourth site, the heavily acidified River Etherow catchment, extremely high rates of nitrate leaching are not accompanied by low C:N ratios or high nitrification potentials in the upper soil horizons. Hence the C:N ratio of surface soil organic matter may have potential as an indicator of nitrogen saturation and leaching in some systems, but it is not universally applicable.     

Relation of Lake Acidification and Recovery to Fish,Common Loon and Common Merganser Occurrence in Algoma Lakes

Models are needed that predict both spatial and temporal improvements to ecosystems following reductions of acidifying emissions that produce `acid rain'. Logistic regression models were developed for the occurrence of fish and two fish-eatingbirds, common loons (Gavia immer) and common mergansers(Mergus merganser), using monitoring data collected onlakes across Ontario. These models were applied in the Algomaregion, including the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW). Using theWaterfowl Acidification Response Modeling System (WARMS), severalSO₂ emission reduction scenarios were simulated, i.e. thosecontributing to measured 1982–1986 sulphate deposition levels, 1994levels (corresponding to full implementation of Canadian SO₂emission reductions as stipulated in the 1991 Canada/U.S. AirQuality Agreement), 2010 levels (1994 plus full U.S. reductions),and both a 50% and a 75% further reduction beyond 2010 levels. Some habitat improvements in Algoma were predicted under the 2010scenario for all biota, but substantial increases in habitatquality, especially for mergansers, would occur only under further reductions. The TLW showed little change in chemistry orbiota, while lakes near the Montreal River were predicted toimprove substantially.     

Critical Loads and Exceedances of Acid Deposition and Associated Forest Growth in the Northern Hardwood and BorealConiferous Forests in Québec,Canada

We used the Québec forest monitoring network (`Réseaud'Étude et de Surveillance des Écosystèmes Forestiers' or RESEF)along with its atmospheric monitoring stations to assess criticalS and N loads and their combined soil acidification exceedancesfor natural ecosystems of the northern hardwood and borealconiferous forests in Québec, Canada. Critical loads (CL) forforest soil acidification were calculated using the simple mass-balance (SMB) approach and with the steady-state PROFILE model.Atmospheric deposition rates for water, S, N, Ca, Mg, Na, and K,for the years 1989–1993, and detailed, plot-specific forest andsoil characteristics were used as input. The SMB model alsorequired information regarding nutrient uptake and storage in theaboveground woody biomass. The CL calculations indicated that,from the 31 RESEF plots, 18 received atmospheric acidic inputs inexcess of their CL (55 and 61% of the hardwood and coniferousplots, respectively). The range of CL exceedance varied from 60to 470 eq ha^-1 yr^-1 for the hardwood stands, and from 10to 590 eq ha^-1 yr^-1 for the coniferous stands. The standswith CL exceedance were mainly located in the western and centralpart of the province. Stand growth associated with exceedanceclass of acidity was determined using the RESEF plots along withselected permanent forest survey plots having similar sitecharacteristics, but for which longer growth records wereavailable. We found a significant negative correlation betweenforest growth rates and critical soil acidification exceedancefor both the northern hardwood and the boreal conifer sites.Specifically, plots with critical load exceedances were found tohave a growth reduction of about 30% during the 1974–1982 andthe 1972–1990 measurement (plots with no soil acidificationexceedance served as a control). While this correlation is notnecessarily causal, it is nevertheless consistent with theexpectation that increased losses of soil base cations on accountof increased soil acidification should and could lead todeteriorating forest health conditions.     

The Link Between the Exceedance of Acidity Critical Loads for Freshwaters,Current Chemical Status and Biological Damage: A Re-Interpretation

Critical loads have for several years been employed bypolicymakers to aid in the development of strategies for aciddeposition abatement. They provide an effects-based approachwhereby an acid deposition flux greater than the critical load(known as critical load exceedance) implies that long-termharmful effects on a selected target organism will occur.Implicit in this approach are two assumptions: first, theexceedance of a critical load will harm the target organism,and second, the severity of biological impact is related to themagnitude of exceedance. However, static models give noindication of when the predicted damage might occur. One suchmodel, the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model, employs aseries of empirical relationships to derive the pre-industrial,baseline leaching rate of base cations from measured waterchemistry using the so-called `F-factor'. The SSWC model setsthe critical load relative to pre-industrial base cationleaching (a permanent buffer of acid deposition) and a selectedacid neutralizing capacity (ANC) value which corresponds with aknown likelihood of damage to a biological target organism.Here we interpret the meaning of critical load exceedance as aprediction of steady-state ANC, and explore the relationshipbetween exceedance of the critical load and current chemistry. We demonstrate that a critical loadexceedance with the SSWC model does not necessarily indicatethat the critical chemical threshold (zero ANC) has alreadybeen crossed, and there may be no correlation betweenexceedance and biological status. A reformulation of the SSWCmodel is proposed which provides a direct link between currentdeposition and current chemical conditions, and is thereforemore likely to indicate current biological damage. Thereformulation illustrates the discrepancy between currentchemical status and that predicted by the SSWC model atsteady-state, which is a function of the `F-factor'.     

Evaluation of energy recovery and CO2 reduction potential in Japan through integrated waste and utility management

This paper examines the potential of integrated waste and utility power management over the mid-term planning horizon in Japan. Energy recovery and CO₂ emission reduction were estimated under two situations: (1) energy recovery efforts within the current waste management/power generation framework and (2) integrated waste management with sewage treatment systems and electric power industries. Scenario simulation results showed that under the current policy framework it is not feasible to achieve large energy recovery and CO₂ emission reduction, while the integrated waste management scenarios show the potential of large energy recovery which is equivalent to about an 18 million t-CO₂ emission reduction. The utilization of dry wastes for power generation at existing fossil power stations is significant in achieving the result. We also consider the effects of the ‘CO₂ emission per GW generated’ for electric power generation on the total CO₂ emission reduction because it varies by country and assumptions selected. Although this research did not include an economic analysis, based on estimated CO₂ emissions and energy recovery, the integrated scenarios indicate a large potential in countries that have high dependence of fossil power generation and relatively low power generation efficiency.     

Critical Loads Exceedances in Germany and their Dependence on the Scale of Input Data

Critical load exceedances have been used as an effects-related parameter for guiding international air emission control negotiations. High-resolution critical load data are combined with low-resolution deposition data.This article shows that doing so systematicallyunderestimates `true' critical load exceedances as obtainedfrom combining critical load and deposition data of identicalhigh spatial resolution. 95th percentile critical loadexceedances in EMEP grids based on high resolution depositiondata are 60 and 150% higher (mean values for nutrientnitrogen and acidity, respectively) than critical loadexceedances based on the low resolution EMEP depositionmodel. The latter are used in international negotiations. Differences in individual EMEP grid squares vary betweeninsignificantly different from zero and 340%, depending onregional deposition and critical load characteristics andcritical load types (nutrient nitrogen versus acidity).Exceedances based on high-resolution deposition values arealso compared to EMEP grid averages of these values forforests only. This comparison excludes the effect ofsystematically higher depositions to forests. Still, thescale difference of (averaged, low-resolution) deposition and(high-resolution) critical loads data yields underestimatesof the 95th percentiles by on average ca. 20%.These systematic errors due to the scale dependence should beborne in mind when interpreting effects of internationalemission control measures.     

Effects of Climate Events on Elemental Fluxes from Forested Catchments in Ontario, Canada: Modelling Drought-Induced Redox Processes

One of the principal influences on elemental fluxes from forestedcatchments in south-central Ontario is the atmospheric deposition rate of strong acids. While sulphate deposition has decreased by ～40% in the past two decades, nitrate deposition has remained unchanged and is now equivalent to sulphate deposition. Sulphate concentrations in headwater lakes and their inflows have decreased, but much less than expected based on the anticipated direct response of the catchments. Reduction-oxidation (redox) processes occurring in wetlands have been identified as the reasonfor delayed recovery, and climate events as controlling these redoxprocesses. A new version of the biogeochemical model MAGIC (modelof acidification of groundwater in catchments) with a wetland compartment that incorporates redox processes driven by climate events has been generated. The application of MAGIC to a subcatchmentof Plastic Lake in south-central Ontario indicates that the basic structure of the model appears to be consistent with the observeddata. Moreover, the wetland component was essential in reproducingthe observed trends, which include sulphate retention in non-droughtyears and re-oxidation of previously stored (reduced) sulphur in drought years.