基于AHP-GIS的重庆市山洪灾害风险区划研究

山洪灾害风险评估与区划是山洪风险管理和决策的重要依据，可有效指导山洪灾害防治工作。利用重庆市2013~2015年山洪灾害调查评价数据，融合降雨条件、下垫面、人口条件、经济财产等多元参数，嵌入抗灾能力修正系数，建立重庆市山洪灾害风险性评价指标体系。利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重，并依托ArcGIS空间分析叠加功能得到重庆市山洪灾害危险性、易损性、风险性分布图。经多目标图层综合叠加与非监督聚类分析，将境内山洪灾害风险强度分为微、低、中、较高、高5个等级，其面积比例分别为14.97%、25.19%、24.41%、22.2%及13.23%。据此，将重庆市山洪灾害风险划分为渝东北高海拔山地较高风险区（1.42 km²）、渝东北中海拔山地中低风险区（1.12 km²）、渝东南中海拔山地高风险区（1.69 km²）、渝中部低海拔山地低风险区（2.07 km²）、渝西中低丘陵低微风险区（0.59 km²）及渝西低丘平坝较高风险区（1.34 km²）6个分区，风险度分布与分区结果客观反映了山洪灾害发生特点、分布情况、易发程度和防治迫切程度的区域差异。     

长江上游陇南山区连阴雨时空演变气候特征与灾害风险区划

从陇南市1971~2010年连阴雨资料入手,分析得出:陇南市连阴雨主要集中出现在5~10月,其中,5~7月夏收夏种期和9~10月秋收秋播期连阴雨危害最大,出现频率最高,造成的灾损最为严重。结合人口、GDP、耕地比等资料,利用ArcGIS软件,得到连阴雨灾害危险性图层,再与承灾体易损性评价、灾害的孕灾背景进行叠加、合并以及等级划分操作,最后得到连阴雨灾害的风险评估及其区划。结果表明:康县、两当南部与武都、文县高寒阴湿区连阴雨危险性等级最高,为连阴雨高风险区,礼县、宕昌及白龙江、白水江、西汉水流域低海拔区连阴雨危险性等级最低,为连阴雨低风险区。研究结果对指导长江上游科学规划抗洪防涝工作,预防地质灾害和水土流失发生,保护生态环境,特别是合理作物布局,巧用天时,周密安排3夏和3秋农业生产工作,预防和减轻连阴雨灾害损失提供了科学依据。     

湘江湖南段洪水灾害综合风险区划

以湘江湖南段河流沿线地区为例，基于自然灾害风险评价的基本原理构建了洪水灾害综合风险值计算模型，即综合危险度和综合社会经济易损度的叠加。利用研究区全球数字高程模型(GDEM)数据、1971~2007年地面气象站观测数据和2008年社会经济统计数据等，借助地理信息系统(GIS)技术和地学方法，得到包含高风险区、较高风险区、中等风险区和较低风险区4个风险等级的洪水灾害综合风险区划图。结果表明：洪水灾害危险度最高的地区集中分布在湘江下游沿岸的湘阴县和长株潭地区；综合社会经济易损度最高的地区为人口密集的市区；湘阴县、长株潭三市和衡阳市市区危险度和易损度均较高，为洪水灾害高风险区。研究结果可为风险管理者和决策者提供量化的理论参考     

湖北省雨涝灾害的风险评估与区划

随着我国灾害科学研究的不断深入及经济建设的日益发展，从风险角度分析灾害已成为灾害分析的一种新视角，它有助于决策者进行灾害管理和制定减灾策略时有针对性地选择最优技术政策，防患于末然。雨涝灾害是湖北省最严重的气象灾害之一，据统计，湖北省平均每年受雨涝危害的农田面积为80．62万hm^2，成灾面积为47．07万hm^2，特别是20世纪80年代以来湖北省工农业生产重地江汉平原和鄂东雨涝事件明显增多，严重威胁和制约着我省国民经济持续稳定发展。依据自然灾害风险分析原理，在分析湖北省雨涝灾害孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体密度和经济发展水平及承灾体的抗灾能力的基础上，综合评价了湖北省雨涝灾害风险程度的地域差异，以能综合体现风险程度的风险指数作为指标，将湖北省雨涝灾害分为极重度、重度、中度和轻度四个风险区，并提出了相应的对策措施，为有关部门灾害管理和减灾决策制定提供了参考依据。     

基于模糊层次综合法的天津市地面沉降危险性评价

地面沉降是当今城市化进程中不容忽视的环境地质问题。本文综合考虑天津市地面沉降成因和地面沉降特征因素,建立了二级6因素的地面沉降灾害危险性评价指标体系,针对每类评价指标将其分为5等,并将目标集划分为高危险级、较高危险级、中度危险级、较低危险级和低危险级5级,运用模糊层次综合评价法确定各指标权重,并借助Arc GIS中的Spatial?Analyst工具进行栅格像元计算,最终完成天津市地面沉降危险性评价和区划。取得的评价成果可为区域防灾减灾工作和社会经济可持续发展提供技术支撑。     

江苏霾灾害风险与地区差异研究

利用江苏省69个地面气象观测站1980～2012年的气象资料，采用适当的方法定义了霾时概念，讨论了重度、中度、轻度及轻微霾时数的时空分布特征。根据霾灾害特点，以区县为评估单元，综合考虑了致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个因素，选取中度霾时数、重度霾时数、水域面积、植被面积、人口密度、公路里程、公共财政支出、每万人拥有医生数等8个因子作为评估的主要指标，利用层次分析法建立霾灾害风险评估模型，并借助于GIS分析工具，进行了霾灾害风险区划     

大别山北坡典型区域暴雨洪涝风险评价研究——-以安徽省六安市为例

从暴雨洪涝的形成机制入手，考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力等4个因子的综合作用，针对安徽省六安市实际，构建了暴雨洪涝风险评价指标体系。借助ArcGIS 100强大的空间分析功能，以30 m×30 m栅格为评价基本单元，在4个因子空间分布图的基础上，依据层次分析法确定的权重，进行因子叠加分析，得到了暴雨洪涝风险综合评价结果和等级图。结果表明，六安市暴雨洪涝风险明显分为西南、东北两部分，西南大别山地区整体风险水平低于东北部。从县域来看，六安市城区、寿县整体风险水平最高。从自然区域来说，高风险区主要分布在河流沿线、湖泊周边和圩畈区。初步验证表明，风险评价结果符合实际情况，具有较好应用价值     

安徽省棉花冰雹灾害风险区划研究

雹灾风险区划是雹灾风险研究的重要内容,对制定区域性的雹灾防灾减灾对策具有指导意义。而雹灾风险评价是开展雹灾风险区划的前提和基础。以我国雹灾频发区--安徽省为例,选择其主要经济作物棉花为承灾体,基于区域灾害系统理论和棉花雹灾风险区划数据库,在“E-H-V-R”四维评价基础上,提出了多技术手段和多方法相结合的“3（E、H、V）+1（R）”维的雹灾风险区划方法,编制了安徽省棉花雹灾风险图,将其划分为淮北平原区、江淮平原丘陵区和皖南山区3个一级区,10个二级区和19个三级区,为安徽省棉花雹灾风险管理和防灾减灾工作的开展提供科学依据,同时为其他区域和其他灾害风险区划研究提供方法和技术参考     

社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识，有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素，不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节，还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法，比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明，公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度，信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播，其中宜春公众的信任度较高；公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱，尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小；公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关，主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响，即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异，风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识，有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素，不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节，还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法，比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明，公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度，信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播，其中宜春公众的信任度较高；公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱，尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小；公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关，主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响，即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异，风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

优化分配方式 提高资金环境绩效

十一五期间中央环境保护专项资金下达近91亿元,为我国环境污染防治和监管基础能力建设提供了强有力的资金保障。随着财政资金使用改革的不断深入,财政部和环保部对中央环境保护专项资金的管理已从过去以评审为中心转变为以绩效为中心,无论在资金投向、分配方式、过程管理、绩效评估等方面都紧密围绕环境绩效这一中心开展。本文在对十一五期间中央环境保护专项资金资金分配总体情况总结归纳的基础上,分析了资金分配方式制约绩效发挥的主要问题,以改革创新资金分配方式、提高环境绩效为目的,对中央统筹法、项目申报法、因素分配法等三种分配方式提出了若干改革优化的建议。     

Comparisons of elements and inorganic compounds inside and outside of residences

The results of more than 1 yr of air monitoring inside and outside of five homes in each of two communities are presented for SO₂, NO₂, mass respirable particles, SO₄, Al, Br, Cl, Mn, Na, and V. Outdoor measurements across the home site in each city are consistent with proximity to outdoor sources. Looking across indoor residential sites in each city, the home appears to alter outdoor concentrations in several ways. Indoor level of SO₂, SO₄, Mn, and V are lower than those measured outdoors. These constituents are thought generally to result from outdoor sources. The other constituents studied are at times found in excess within homes. In some cases the source or sources of excess concentration of a particular constituent could be identified; often, however, the source of excess indoor concentration could not be identified.     

Harmful and Needless Emission of Refrigerant and Countermeasures

Abstract

Refrigerants used in refrigerators are an important source of ozone depleting substances released into the atmosphere, and can have a significantly negative effect on the hole in the ozone layer. But most emission of refrigerants is man-made, unreasonable and needless. Since in most emission cases the refrigerants are contained in the refrigerators, we can retrieve them by some technique that changes the ‘manual emission’ into manual retrieving. To promote the retrieval action and diminish the pollution, society can use economic, administrative and technical countermeasures, which can create a ‘good-cycle’ both ‘harnessing pollution and earning income simultaneously’, reinforce the motive of retrieving, and retrieve most proportion of refrigerants used by all refrigerators. This ‘good-cycle’ method can be easily promoted, and also a valuable way to promote other forms of environmental protection. The three countermeasures have almost no social cost, even no cost at all.     

Harmful and Needless Emission of Refrigerant and Countermeasures

Refrigerants used in refrigerators are an important source of ozone depleting substances released into the atmosphere, and can have a significantly negative effect on the hole in the ozone layer. But most-emission of refrigerants is man-made, unreasonable and needless. Since in most emission cases the refrigerants are contained in the refrigerators, we can retrieve them by some technique that changes the ＇manual emission＇ into manual retrieving. To promote the retrieval action and diminish the pollution, society can use economic, administrative and technical countermeasures, which can create a ＇good-cycle＇ both ＇harnessing pollution and earning income simultaneously＇, reinforce the motive of retrieving, and retrieve most proportion of refrigerants used by＇all refrigerators. This ＇good-cycle＇ method can be easily promoted, and also a valuable way to promote other forms of environmental protection. The three countermeasures have almost no social cost, even no cost at all.     

Mutagenic and carcinogenic potency of extracts of diesel and related environmental emissions: Summary and discussion of the results

The proposed conversion from gasoline powered automobiles to diesel powered vehicels has prompted the Environmental Protection Agency to evaluate the potential health effects associated with exposure to diesel emissions. At present, there is no direct epidemiological link between this exposure and human health. Therefore, a research program was constructed to compare the health effects associated with diesel emissions with those from other emission sources for which epidemiological information was available. The emission sources chosen were cigarette smoke, roofing tar, and coke oven. An additional comparative emission source which was a gasoline catalyst engine. Respirable particles from a variety of combustion sources have the potential of being carcinogenic and mutagenic. The objective of these studies was to determine the relative biological activity of the organic material adsorbed on these particles in both in vitro mutagenesis and in vitro and in vivo bioassays. The organic extracts from the following series of emission sources were quantitatively bioassayed in a matrix of tests for their carcinogenic and mutagenic activity: (1) a light-duty Oldsmobile diesel 350 engine; (2) a heavy-duty Caterpillar diesel engine; (3) a light-duty Nissan engine; (4) a Volkswagen Rabbit diesel engine; (5) cigarette smoke; (6) roofing tar; (7) coke oven; and (8) a gasoline catalyst Mustang. The test matrix consisted of the following bioassay: reverse mutation in Salmonella typhimurium; mitotic recombination in Saccharomyces cerevisiae; DNA damage in Syrian hamster embryo cells (SHE); sister chromatid exchange in CHO cells; gene mutation in L5178Y mouse lymphoma cells, Balb/c 3T3 mouse embryo fibroblasts and CHO cells; viral enhancement of SHE cells; oncogenic transformation in Balb/c 3T3 cells; and skin tumor initiation in SENCAR and C57 black mice. The results of this test matrix are discussed.     

Concentrations of chlorinated and brominated contaminants and their metabolites in serum of harbour seals and harbour porpoises

Harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) and harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) are top predators in the North Sea and consequently accumulate a variety of pollutants in their tissues. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their hydroxylated metabolites (HO-PCBs and HO-PBDEs) were measured in serum of wild harbour seals (n = 47) and captive harbour porpoises (n = 21). Both species exhibit long life spans and do not have extreme situations, such as complete fasting during periods of lactation, in their annual cycles. For PCBs, concentrations in adult males were slightly higher than in juveniles and lowest in juvenile females. For PBDEs, juveniles have higher levels than adult males and females, probably as a consequence of lactational transfer. However, differences between these age–gender groups were not statistical significant, indicating that individual variation was limited within each species, even without knowing the feeding status of the animals. Body condition, particularly emaciation, has a major influence on the levels of chlorinated and brominated contaminants in serum. Profiles of PCBs were CB 153 > CB 138 > CB 187 > CB 180 and CB 153 > CB 138 > CB 149 > CB 187 > CB 180 for harbour seals and porpoises respectively. For PBDEs, BDE 47 was the predominant congener followed by BDE 100 and 99 in both species. In harbour seals, concentrations of sum PCBs (median: 39,200 pg/ml) were more than 200 times higher than levels of sum PBDEs (median: 130 pg/ml) and almost 10 times higher than concentrations of sum HO-PCBs (4350 pg/ml). In harbour porpoises, concentrations of sum PCBs (median: 24,300 pg/ml) were about 20 times higher than concentrations of PBDEs (median: 1300 pg/ml). HO-PCBs were detected in only 4 harbour porpoises and this at very low concentrations. Naturally-produced MeO-PBDEs were only found in harbour porpoises at concentrations ranging from 120 to 810 pg/ml. HO-PBDEs were not found in any species. In general, harbour seals accumulate less compounds and have mostly lower concentrations than harbour porpoises possibly as a result of a better developed metabolism.     

Relevance of BFRs and thermal conditions on the formation pathways of brominated and brominated-chlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans

The widespread use of brominated flame-retarded products in the last two decades has resulted in an increasing presence of bromine in thermal processes such as waste combustion and accidental fires. Brominated and brominated-chlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans (PBDDs/PBDFs, PXDDs/PXDFs) are micropollutants of concern arising from such processes. The present review aims to evaluate the relevance of these compound classes in actual thermal processes. Four categories of thermal processes are discussed in this respect according to their potential for PBDD/PBDF and PXDD/PXDF generation: thermal stress, pyrolysis/gasification, insufficient combustion conditions and controlled combustion conditions. Under thermal stress situations, as they may occur in production or recycling processes, PBDDs/PBDFs precursors like polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDE) can have a relevant potential for PBDD/PBDF formation via a simple elimination. Under insufficient combustion conditions as they are present in, e.g. accidental fires and uncontrolled burning as well as gasification/pyrolysis processes, considerable amounts of PBDDs/PBDFs can be formed from BFRs, preferably via the precursor pathway. In contrast, under controlled combustion conditions, BFRs and PBDDs/PBDFs can be destroyed with high efficiency. The relevance of de novo synthesis of PXDDs/PXDFs is discussed for this condition.Providing a basis for the understanding of PXDD/PXDF formation in actual thermal processes, the present paper also summarises the formation pathways of brominated and brominated-chlorinated PXDDs/PXDFs from brominated flame retardants (BFRs) investigated during laboratory thermolysis experiments. Relevant mechanistic steps for PBDD/PBDF formation from brominated precursors are discussed including elimination reactions, condensation steps and debromination/hydrogenation reactions.In addition, chlorination/bromination and halogen exchange reactions are briefly discussed with respect for their relevance on the final distribution of PBDDs/PBDFs, mixed chlorinated PXDDs/PXDFs and PCDDs/PCDFs resulting from thermal processes.     

经济波动与最优城镇化水平和速度研究

城镇化对经济波动具有重要影响,过快和过慢均不利于经济的平稳发展。我国经济新常态客观上要求实施新型城镇化战略,关键是积极稳妥推进城镇化,科学控制城镇化水平和速度。以宏观经济稳定为目标,确定最优城镇化规则,诊断当前城镇化水平和速度,可为落实新型城镇化,稳定宏观经济提供决策参考。本文建立了附加城镇化变量的后顾型宏观经济模型,利用最优控制理论求解基于宏观经济波动最小化的最优城镇化水平和速度决定规则,实证结果表明:我国人口城镇化速度主要对宏观总需求产生影响,而土地城镇化速度既影响总需求也影响总供给;最优城镇化速度规则对总产出缺口负反馈,对通胀缺口正反馈。在此基础上,进一步模拟了1990-2013年间最优人口城镇化、土地城镇化水平以及相应的总产出和通胀波动情况,模拟结果显示:最优城镇化水平和速度规则具有逆经济周期的特征,为保持经济平稳发展,经济过度繁荣时城镇化应减速,经济衰退时应加速城镇化,我国历史上城镇化速度和水平存在较大的优化空间;最优城镇化水平和速度规则会小幅度降低城镇化进程和总产出的平滑性,但会大幅度抑制通胀波动,总体来看使总福利损失下降约三分之一;当前我国人口城镇化水平超前速度过快,土地城镇化水平偏低速度过慢。建议"十三五"期间,政府应该根据宏观经济波动情况适当控制人口城镇化速度,加快推进土地城镇化,提高土地城镇化水平和质量,同时应制定相应的财政政策和货币政策以促进最优城镇化规则发挥其降低宏观经济波动功能。     

我国探矿权资产化、证券化的模式及设想

探矿权资产化、证券化是我国改革探矿业投融资体制，解决探矿业资金瓶颈问题的关键。本文从制度建设、机构投资者的发展状况等方面分析了我国初步推行探矿权资产化、证券化的有利条件．指出了探矿权资产化、证券化的三种模式。并以基金模式和股权模式为例提出了实施探矿权资产化、证券化的步骤设想。     

中国工业化进程与能源矿产供需均衡的研究

工业化与能源需求的均衡关系及解决工业化进程中能源供需失衡的战略途径是中国工业化进程中需要探讨的重大问题.文章运用协整技术,就1990-2008年间中国工业化进程与能源需求协整关系的检验,认为中国工业化与能源需求增长具有长期稳定的均衡关系,能源需求将继续保持增长,能源利用效率也将持续提高.然而工业化进程中重工业化高能耗结构特征与能源低效利用并存的困境以及能源供需矛盾不利于能源供需平衡的平稳发展.我国应适应工业化进程的基本规律,转变能源消费方式;走新型工业化道路,适当限制低附加值产业发展,鼓励产业向离附加值、低能耗、高技术产业转移;在实现能源开发利用技术进步和创新的同时.有效利用国内外能源资源;建立能源应急机制等战略途径来实现工业化进程中能源供需平衡发展.