The Worldwide Availability of Fluorspar

This paper reviews a recent assessment of fluorspar reserves and resources for 13 market economy countries and the People's Republic of China, and how they relate to the overall availability of fluorspar on the world market. Current world production, consumption and world trade issues are discussed.
Nearly 5 million tonnes of fluorspar were produced in 1985, and approximately 60% of that enters the world export market. In recent years world trade has started to shift away from the acid, metallurgical and ceramic grades of fluorspar, as ore-producing countries look towards higher-value downstream products.
Total potentially recoverable fluorspar from 52 major producing mines and deposits is estimated at nearly 95 million tonnes (as of January 1985). The Republic of South Africa accounts for 31% of the reserves, with Mexico and the People's Republic of China each contributing 18%.
The average total cost and availability of fluorspar is evaluated. Approximately 75% of acid-grade fluorspar evaluated is potentially available at or below a 1985 constant-dollar cost of US$110 tonne⁻¹. Nearly 94% of metallurgical grades are potentially available at costs of US$75 tonne⁻¹ and below, and virtually all of the ceramic grades could be produced at costs below the 1985 reported market price of US$103 tonne⁻¹.     

1980--2009年中国经济增长对化石能源消耗的依赖关系

随着中国经济的发展，我国高化石能源消耗问题也越来越突出。计算了1980--2009年中国人均化石能源足迹，并将其与人均GDP联系起来进行研究，发现在这30年中我国人均化石能源消耗和人均GDP都呈现逐步增长趋势，在用E—G两步法进行协整检验的过程中发现两者存在长期稳定的均衡关系；采用格兰杰因果检验进行进一步的验证分析发现，我国人均化石能源足迹和人均GDP之间互为因果关系，进一步说明我国经济发展对能源消耗尤其是化石能源消耗具有依赖性，且经济发展会进一步刺激化石能源使用的增加。因此，采取节能降耗措施应从调整产业结构和能源消费结构入手，在降低能耗期间我国会出现经济增长放缓的现象。     

Spatiotemporal Variation of Karst Ecosystem Service Values and Its Correlation with Environmental Factors in Northwest Guangxi,China

In this investigation we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of ecosystem service values (ESVs) and its correlation with numerous environmental factors (EFs) for the karst region of Northwest Guangxi, China, from 1985 to 2005 using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical techniques. The results indicate that historically ESVs for this karst region decreased from 1985 (109.652 billion Yuan) to 1990 (88.789 billion Yuan) and then increased at the turn of the twenty-first century. However, the ESVs in both 2000 (103.384 billion Yuan) and 2005 (106.257 billion Yuan) never achieved the level recorded in 1985. The total of nutrient cycling, organic production and gas regulation combined were 72.69, 64.57, 70.18 and 72.10% of ESVs in 1985, 1990, 2000 and 2005, respectively. In contrast, the ESVs of water conservation, soil reservation, recreation and culture were determined to be relatively low contributing only 17.44, 23.82, 19.26 and 24.76% of total ESVs, respectively, during these four years. With regards to the spatial distribution of ESVs, larger values were recorded in the west and smaller ones recorded in the east. The most significant factors that were deemed to influence ESVs are annual rainfall, per capita cropland, slope and vegetation coverage. Annual rainfall and slope exert a negative force, whereas per capita cropland and vegetation coverage exert a positive force on ESVs. The results of the study would suggest that ecosystem conditions of this important karst region have been improved as the result of the implementation of rocky desertification control policies.     

充分利用农业资源,发展我国粮食生产

我国粮食生产的制约因素较多。为了达到我国粮食产量稳定增长的目的,我们必须针对我国农业资源的特点,趋利避害,充分发挥其优势,挖掘生产潜力;搞好宏观调控,调动各方面的积极性,发展粮食生产。这样,2000年实观我国粮食总产量达到 5亿t,人均占有粮食400kg 的目的是可能的。     

Mineral consumption in the UK, 1945–1980: A statistical analysis

Trends in the UK consumption of 12 metallic and 19 non-metallic minerals are examined for the period 1945–1980. Comparisons are drawn between these trends and developments in per capita GDP, total world consumption and UK mineral processing capacity. Although the consumption of most minerals has shown a tendency to stagnate or decline in recent years, taking the post-war period as a whole the consumption of non-metallics has displayed a faster and more sustained growth than that of metallics; thus their share of the total value of minerals consumed in the UK has increased significantly.     

基于聚类分析的我国各地化石能源足迹与经济发展定量研究

利用改进后的化石能源足迹公式计算了2000—2009年我国30个地区的人均化石能源足迹,并分别对2000年和2009年中国各地区的数据进行聚类分析,发现我国地区人均化石能源足迹由无明显地域特征转变为东部高于中西部,经济发达地区高于欠发达地区,且能源使用效率和经济发展水平间联系逐渐加强。通过对不同类别代表性地区人均化石能源足迹的分析判断,以北京、上海和广东为代表的发达地区化石能源消耗增长开始趋于缓和甚至出现小幅下降。     

China

For the first time since the mid-1960s, China became a net oil importer in 1993. That the country will remain a net oil importer is inevitable and probably irreversible for the foreseeable future. In the period to 2000, its crude oil production is projected to increase only 2% annually, while demand for refined oil products is expected to grow at 6.6% per annum. As a result, China's net oil imports are expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day in 2000, accounting for almost one-third of its projected oil consumption. Most of the imports will come from the Middle East, and China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is expected to increase significantly in the future .     

基于EKC的全面小康中国与发达国家环境质量比较

以2020年全面建成小康社会目标为依据,比较了我国2020年与主要发达国家同等经济水平阶段在能源消耗、大气环境、水环境等方面的差距。研究发现:主要发达国家环境质量拐点出现在20世纪70年代末到80年代初,人均GDP在1.4万~1.5万美元左右。人均GDP在1.1万~1.2万美元阶段时,我国大气污染物排放强度低于发达国家,但大气环境质量差于发达国家;主要水污染排放量高于主要发达国家,但水环境质量基本可达到发达国家同期水平。建议要正确认识环境与经济之间的EKC曲线关系,制定具有中国特色的环境问题解决路线图,提出具有阶段性、差异化、适度超前的环境质量目标。     

中国城镇居民食物消费碳排放的时空演变特征分析

本文运用碳折算系数法和投入产出模型测算了1990—2018年中国30个省(区、市)城镇居民食物消费的人均直接碳排放、人均家庭间接碳排放和人均产业间接碳排放,并运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)对总碳排放的空间特征进行分析。研究表明:1990—2018年中国30个省(区、市)人均间接碳排放在研究期内呈增长趋势,人均产业碳排放增长幅度最大且始终处于主导地位,大部分地区的人均直接碳排放增长较为缓慢;人均碳排放和总碳排放都呈显著增长趋势,人均碳排放的增长幅度宁夏>新疆>上海>浙江>青海>北京,甘肃最小,总碳排放增长幅度广东>浙江>山东>江苏>河北>上海,吉林最低;总碳排放在大部分年份呈正的空间相关性,整体上呈"M"形波动;局部空间自相关分析结果表明,食物消费总碳排放存在高高型和低高型两种,且2000年及以后高高型稳定在上海、江苏、浙江地区。最后,本文依据实证结果对如何降低城镇居民食物消费碳排放提出了相应的政策建议。     

RESOURCE DEMANDS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the development of a mathematical model for forecasting energy development in the Yellowstone study area for the years 1985 and 2000, and determining the associated economic demands for water, land, labor, capital, and mineral resources. The study was prepared for use by the Missouri River Basin Commission in conducting a comprehensive, “Level B” planning study of the water and related land resources in the Yellowstone River Basin. The study results indicate that the amount of coal development in the Yellowstone study area will depend primarily upon state and federal energy policies and regulations. Policies related to slurry pipeline transportation of coal will be particularly important in determining the level and pattern of future energy development in the area. Coal production under the “most probable” scenario is expected to increase from about 40 million tons in 1976 to 163 million tons per year by 1985, and 513 million tons in the year 2000. Consumptive water use for energy development in the study area could be as much as 556,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2000 (under the high scenario). A parametric analysis was conducted on the 1985 most probably scenario to determine the influence on the study results of variations in the delivered price of water. Water requirements were reduced by nearly one-fourth as water costs increased from zero to over $750 per acre-foot.     

中国区域粮食生产与消费中的虚拟耕地平衡研究

从不同尺度分析了我国2008年粮食生产、消费中的虚拟耕地含量及虚拟耕地平衡空间分布规律.主要结论为:①2008年粮食生产虚拟耕地北方比南方多32396.8×107m2,人均粮食生产虚拟耕地量北方远远高于全国平均水平和南方,因粮食生产形成较为典型的虚拟耕地“北土南调”现象.②2008年粮食消费虚拟耕地北方比南方多6851.62×107m2.③从粮食生产与消费的虚拟耕地平衡空间分布规律来看,2008年虚拟耕地调出区全部位于我国北方地区,集中分布在两大地带:一是由黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古、新疆、宁夏5省(区)组成的我国北方边境沿线地带,二是由河南、安徽组成的中部区;调入区则集中在由东部沿海地区、中部省份和西部内陆省份组成的环状地带.     

Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960

Between 1960 and 2000, Japan's real GDP grew 620%. However, its consumption of copper increased only 345%, thanks to a 38% decline in the country's intensity of copper use. In light of concerns today over the possible impact of future economic development in China, India, and other developing countries on the long-run availability of mineral resources, this study proposes to explore the causes for this dramatic decline in the Japanese intensity of copper use.For some time, we have known that the intensity of metal use within a country depends on its level of economic development, usually measured by per capita income, as well as on technological change, long-run price trends, and other factors whose influence varies, more or less, with time. This study finds that rising per capita income has increased the intensity of copper use in Japan over the entire period examined. Moreover, this positive effect is expected to continue until per capita income—$44,830 in 2000—reaches $53,000. Thereafter, further advances will tend to reduce the intensity of copper use. Conversely, new copper-saving technologies and other time-related variables have on average reduced the intensity of copper use by 2.9% a year, an amount sufficient not only to offset the positive effects of growing per capita income but also to reduce intensity of use by 38%.     

Mining investment in Africa

Since 1985, there has been rapid growth in the presence of Australian exploration and mining companies in Africa. This paper sets out the reasons for the interest of those companies, now 20 in number, in various African mineral opportunities. Australian companies spent about US$16 million in 1992 on African exploration and evaluation, with over US$130 million spent on new mine development or expansion. The 20 Australian companies operate in 16 African countries, with two areas of focus, West Africa and Southern Africa. Using the responses to a survey sent to Australian companies operating in Africa in 1991, and to companies known to be interested in prospects there, the paper identifies and categorizes the policy and regulatory requirements needed by investors. Although a gloomy picture has often been painted of investment in Africa, Australian companies recognize that their risk taking, in the light of a declining investment climate in other mining areas, could promote a renaissance of world-scale mining in Africa.     

2001-2009年湖北能源消费的时空格局及其影响因素

2001 -2009年湖北能源消费总量规模、人均能源消费量、能源消费结构和能源消费效率均发生了很大变化,能源消费总量和人均能源消费不断增加,能源消费结构趋于优化,能源消费效率显著提高,能源消费规模和年均增长率具有明显的空间差异.此外,各地区人均能源消费均有所增长,能源消费效率显著提高,但增长或提高的水平具有明显的地区差异.全省人均能源消费和能源消费效率的空间格局虽发生了较大变化,但人均能源消费和能源消费效率的空间差异显著,鄂西北、鄂西南和鄂东北地区人均能源消费量明显低于鄂中广大地区,鄂西南地区和武汉城市圈内大多数城市能源消费效率明显高于全省其他地区;经济增长、产业结构、城市化水平、居民消费结构和人口增长等因素的变化和地区差异是影响全省能源消费总量、消费结构和消费效率变化以及能源消费地区差异的主要因素.     

中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。     

WOODFUEL - A TIME FOR RE-ASSESSMENT

Official statistics and surveys show that woodfuel is the dominant end-use of forest products especially in developing countries. This paper examines the end-use pattern and per capita consumption figures for selected developing countries. In terms of total energy requirements woodfuel, a renewable resource, is the third most important fuel after oil and coal, but may be the primary fuel in terms of number of actual consumers. The future consumption pattern is estimated for the developing and developed countries and it is anticipated that total woodfuel consumption may increase by about 2 per cent per year at least until the year 2000. The supply position shows that while present consumption of all forest products is more or less in balance with the increment of the growing stock, in certain areas the forest capital is being depleted to meet demand. Total demand is likely to double by the turn of the century. Therefore, plantations, especially of fuelwood, will have to be established if the growing stock is not to be depleted and if an energy crisis in developing countries is to be averted.     

Impact of climate change on food security of small islands: The case of Mauritius

This paper studies the implications of high food prices resulting from climate change on food security in small islands, using Mauritius as a case‐study. Climate change may adversely impact prices of agricultural commodities. The study derives and calculates the government costs and the welfare effects of an increase in the world price of rice on consumers in Mauritius. Using an equilibrium displacement model, this study finds that an increase in the price of rice by 35%, as predicted by the literature on climate change and rice prices, will result in an increase of 28.8% in government spending, representing the additional outlays to support the subsidy scheme for food security. Using 2012 as the baseline, the welfare analysis results suggest that consumer surplus for ration rice consumers increases by 626 million Mauritian Rupees (MUR) or US$18 million while consumer surplus decreases by MUR454 million (US$13 million) for basmati rice consumers.     

河南省能源强度下降的驱动因素分析——基于LMDI方法

根据能源强度的定义和能源消费总量的构成,将能源强度细分为生产能源强度和生活能源强度.生产能源强度是影响河南省能源强度变化的重要因素,而生活能源强度快速增加态势应引起高度关注.基于LMDI因素分解方法,将影响2005-2012年河南省能源强度变化的因素分解为结构效应、能源效率效应、人均GDP倒数效应和人均生活能源消费效应.结果表明,能源效率效应和人均GDP倒数效应是河南省能源强度下降的驱动力,而经济结构和人均生活能源消费效应成为河南能源强度下降的阻碍因素.为实现“十二五”河南省“双控”目标,除挖掘效率节能潜力外,实现结构节能、合理控制生活能源消费增速十分重要,提出了相应的政策建议.     

北京市发展循环经济的行动策略研究

在世界各国积极发展循环经济的大环境下,中国也将其纳入战略性决策。北京作为中国的首都,凭借其得天独厚的地理和资源优势,各方面发展都处于领先地位,循环经济亦是如此。北京市在循环经济发展过程中成果显著,但也难免存在疏漏和不足之处。本文以循环经济理论为基础,通过分析北京市综合发展状况,建立了北京市消费能源总量与北京市人均GDP之间的模型关系,总结其发展循环经济的得与失,并提出切实可行的政策建议。     

Long-term projections of non-fuel minerals: We were wrong,but why?

This article revisits global projections made in 1981 of eight metallic and fertilizer minerals for the year 2000. The principal objectives of the present study are to quantify the differences between the projected and observed levels of consumption for the year 2000 for eight of the 26 non-fuel minerals covered in the earlier study, and, then, to attempt to attribute these (often) large differences to the major determinants of minerals demand: income, technological, regulatory and other public policy changes, and changes in the recycling rates of the metallic minerals. The eight minerals are: aluminum, copper, iron, mercury, nickel, phosphate rock, potash and tin.This follow-up study begins with a discussion of the need for long-term projections of minerals. This section also includes a summary of the major determinants of the long-term demand for, and supply of, minerals, and a review of some of the earlier assessments of mineral needs and availability.Section 3 of the article begins with a short summary of the World Input–Output Model, the main methodological tool used in the earlier study that was developed by Prof. Wassily Leontief, the 1973 Nobel laureate in economics, and the way in which non-fuel minerals were represented in that system. This section also provides a summary of other global modeling efforts of non-fuel minerals that were carried out at a similar point in time for a similar interval.Section 4 presents the actual population, GDP and per capita GDP changes over the 1970–2000 time interval compared with the projected rates for these important determinants of mineral use, along with the projected and observed growth rates of minerals consumption for the eight non-fuel minerals included in this study. When the projections are compared to the observed global consumption rates for the year 2000, the differences range from +43% for nickel to +229% for potash.Section 5 discusses the apparent reasons for the differences between the projected and observed global consumption rates of these non-fuel minerals that include differences in the growth of GDP and GDP per capita, changes in recycling rates (for the metallic minerals), technological change, and regulatory or other public policy changes that have affected mineral use over the 30-year-interval ending in 2000.In light of the data and analysis presented in Sections sec# and sec#, the article concludes with some remarks, made almost a quarter of a century ago, by Prof. Leontief on the need and justification for long-term projections.