中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。     

LAW,HYDROLOGY, AND SURFACE-WATER SUPPLY IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Law and hydrology are inextricably woven together in the pattern of water resource development in the west. The former attempts to allocate a limited and valuable resource as the latter tries to define the limits of the resource. In the past an inadequate data base has made hydrologic estimates difficult and political factors have pushed the law into possibly conflicting commitments in the Colorado River Basin. Through the use of tree-ring research, hydrologists have produced a more definitive data base and placed water allocations such as the Colorado River Compact of 1922 in a clearer long-term perspective. This data base leads to the conclusion that the surface-water supply is about 13.5 million acre-feet per year. This hydrologic limit must be apportioned within an existing legal framework - the “Law of the River.” As development approaches the resource limit in the Upper Colorado River Basin, lawyers and hydrologists must act in concert toward the equitable solution of allocation and reallocation problems.     

WATER-ENERGY CONFLICTS IN MONTANA'S YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT The abundant, high-quality waters of the Yellowstone River Basin have fostered a strong agricultural-based economy in eastern Montana. The region also contains the nation's largest strippable coal reserves. Numerous conflicts have developed around the mining of coal and in-state conversion of coal into electricity and synthetic fuels – processes that require large volumes of water. Competition for water among industrialists, agriculturalists, and others is a critical state issue. Probable effects of increased water diversions, the nature of water-energy conflicts, and state efforts to control development are discussed.     

EFFECTS OF INTERBASIN TRANSFERS UPON WATER MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES IN CENTRAL UTAH1

ABSTRACT. Most of Utah's rapid population and industrial expansion is taking place along the western base of the Wasatch Mountains, with consequent increases in water demand. As a part of Utah's “Developing a State Water Plan,” a foundation investigation of the Utah Lake drainage area, which is at the Southern end of the Wasatch Front, was completed which delineated the quantity and quality of the water resources, present water uses, and opportunities for further water conservation. To prepare water budgets, land use data was collected to delineate all areas using water in excess of normal precipitation, which includes agricultural croplands, phreatophytes, open water surfaces, industrial areas, and urban areas. The water budgets were prepared for the time base 1931-1960, but adjusted to physical conditions existing in 1960. The Initial Phase of the Bonneville Unit of the Central Utah Project is presently under construction, with costs expected to exceed 300 million dollars. The principal feature of this project is the exportation of waters from the Colorado River Basin into the Utah Lake drainage area (Great Basin). This importation provides a large number of alternatives for allocation, reallocation of present supplies, and exportation. The possible effects of the Central Utah Project for realizing some of the above alternatives is delineated. Fortunately, the features of this project allow a wide latitude for water management in Utah, thereby facilitating its corporation into a “State Water Plan.”     

WATER CONSTRAINTS ON EMERGING ENERGY PRODUCTION1

ABSTRACT: A comprehensive nationwide recognizance-level assessment of water needs for energy development over the 1985 to 2000 time frame and options for overcoming any actual or potential water supply problems are summarized. Water requirements for energy production and other uses are totaled for each geographic region of the United States and compared with available stream flow to identify regions with potentially inadequate water supplies to meet expanding energy needs. Water quality impacts and water-related institutional factors affecting energy development are also considered. It is concluded that, if proper planning measures are not initiated, water demands for energy production will not be satisfied by the year 2000, particularly in those areas with known fossil energy resources. No unmanageable water quality problems are foreseen, and water-related institutional factors will primarily delay rather than exclud energy development.     

WATER RIGHTS,ALLOCATION, AND CONFLICTS IN THE TONGUE RIVER BASIN,SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Southeastern Montana's Tongue River basin is experienceing rapid development of its extensive coal deposits which is significantly impacting the basin's hydrologic systems. Energy development projects may require more water than is available and threatens to dewater the river, degrade water quality, and endanger aquatic econosystems. The Montana Water Use Act promised to end the uncertainty which has existed in Montana water law. However, serious difficulties have been encountered in implementing the law and Tongue River water rights remain in a state of uncertainty. The Tongue River's water was allocated in 1978 but the division of the river's water is meaningless due to Indian lawsuits and lack of an agreement between Montana and Wyoming concerning the Yellowstone River Compact. Thus water which is hydrologically available may not be legally available.     

Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios

In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), corn acreage has been expanding since 2005 in response to high demand for corn as an ethanol feedstock. This study integrated remote sensing-derived products and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a geographic information system (GIS) modeling environment to assess the impacts of cropland change on sediment yield within four selected watersheds in the GLB. The SWAT models were calibrated during a 6 year period (2000–2005), and predicted stream flows were validated. The R ² values were 0.76, 0.80, 0.72, and 0.81 for the St. Joseph River, the St. Mary River, the Peshtigo River, and the Cattaraugus Creek watersheds, respectively. The corresponding E (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) values ranged from 0.24 to 0.79. The average annual sediment yields (tons/ha/year) ranged from 0.12 to 4.44 for the baseline (2000 to 2008) condition. Sediment yields were predicted to increase for possible future cropland change scenarios. The first scenario was to convert all “other” agricultural row crop types (i.e., sorghum) to corn fields and switch the current/baseline crop rotation into continuous corn. The average annual sediment yields increased 7–42 % for different watersheds. The second scenario was to further expand the corn planting to hay/pasture fields. The average annual sediment yields increased 33–127 % compared with baseline conditions.     

IMPACTS OF WATER USE EFFICIENCY ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: To help meet national energy demands, interest has been focused on the coal, oil shale, and uranium deposits of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Several energy output projections for the basin have been presented based upon water availability. Inherent in all these analyses are estimates as to the rate of water use in each energy development. New energy technologies are characterized by parameters extrapolated from small scale energy facilities. The data provide projected costs, conversion efficiencies, and material inputs and outputs. Alternative techniques for process cooling and solids handling provide variable rates of water use which affect other conversion parameters. Results from a mathematical model are used in analyzing the sensitivity of an optimal energy development strategy for the Upper Colorado River Basin. The impacts of alternative water use rates are investigated in terms of net energy output, total cost, and displacements in the development strategy. Similarly, controls and regulations on energy resource development are evaluated.     

NUTRIENT MASS BALANCE AND TRENDS,MOBILE RIVER BASIN,ALABAMA, GEORGIA,AND MISSISSIPPI1

ABSTRACT: A nutrient mass balance — accounting for nutrient inputs from atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, crop nitrogen fixation, and point source effluents; and nutrient outputs, including crop harvest and storage — was calculated for 18 subbasins in the Mobile River Basin, and trends (1970 to 1997) were evaluated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Agricultural nonpoint nitrogen and phosphorus sources and urban nonpoint nitrogen sources are the most important factors associated with nutrients in this system. More than 30 percent of nitrogen yield in two basins and phosphorus yield in eight basins can be attributed to urban point source nutrient inputs. The total nitrogen yield (1.3 tons per square mile per year) for the Tombigbee River, which drains a greater percentage of agricultural (row crop) land use, was larger than the total nitrogen yield (0.99 tons per square mile per year) for the Alabama River. Decreasing trends of total nitrogen concentrations in the Tombigbee and Alabama Rivers indicate that a reduction occurred from 1975 to 1997 in the nitrogen contributions to Mobile Bay from the Mobile River. Nitrogen concentrations also decreased (1980 to 1995) in the Black Warrior River, one of the major tributaries to the Tombigbee River. Total phosphorus concentrations increased from 1970 to 1996 at three urban influenced sites on the Etowah River in Georgia. Multiple regression analysis indicates a distinct association between water quality in the streams of the Mobile River drainage basin and agricultural activities in the basin.     

The regional impacts of small-scale gold mining in Amazonia

Gold mining is the major economic activity in the Upper Tapajós River Basin of the Brazilian Amazon. This article studies the structure, economy and impacts of gold mining operations in this region. Mining has significant environmental impacts in this region resulting in the removal of approximately 67 million m³ of sub-soil per year and accompanied by an annual release of some 12 tons of mercury to air, ground and rivers. In the early 1990s there were 245 mines in operation, employing some 30000 people and producing around 35t gold per year, valued at approximately $400 million yr^-1, the profits being about $110 million yr^-1. Miners spent most of their earnings on local goods and services, while mine owners and merchants in the gold towns invested in land (mainly for ranching), business ventures and money markets. Wealth gained from mining has served as an engine for development in other regions of the world and could, theoretically, achieve the same for Amazonia. However, before this could happen, the Government of Brazil would need to mark a strong presence in the area by providing technical assistance and developing and enforcing mining/environmental regulations. The likelihood of such a development materializing in the foreseeable future is small. In the meantime, gold mining acts, not as an 'engine for development', but as a destabilizing force — provoking environmental damage, social discord and public health hazards in the region.     

THE TREE-RING RECORD OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT1

ABSTRACT: Frequent and persistent droughts exacerbate the problems caused by the inherent scarcity of water in the semiarid to arid parts of the southwestern United States. The occurrence of drought is driven by climatic variability, which for years before about the beginning of the 20th century in the Southwest must be inferred from proxy records. As part of a multidisciplinary study of the potential hydrologic impact of severe sustained drought on the Colorado River, the physical basis and limitations of tree rings as indicators of severe sustained drought are reviewed, and tree-ring data are analyzed to delineate a “worst-case” drought scenario for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Runs analysis of a 121-site tree-ring network, 1600–1962, identifies a four-year drought in the 1660s as the longest-duration large-scale drought in the Southwest in the recent tree-ring record. Longer tree-ring records suggest a much longer and more severe drought in 1579–1598. The regression estimate of the mean annual Colorado River flow for this period is 10.95 million acre-feet, or 81 percent of the long-term mean. The estimated flows for the 1500s should be used with caution in impact studies because sample size is small and some reconstructed values are extrapolations.     

OPTIMAL WATER USE AND SALINITY CONTROL FOR ENERGY - UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Upper Colorado River Basin contains appreciable amounts of undeveloped fuel resources. Large quantities of oil shale, coal, and uranium have attracted recent economic and commercial interests. Development of these resources and subsequent conversion to alternative energy forms require an adequate supply of water. Water use for large scale energy development will place increasing demands on an already overstressed allocation of Colorado River water. Present water quality is at a concentration where increased salinity will result in economic detriments to holders of downstream water rights. The salt and water exchange in mining, processing, and spent fuel disposal processes has been incorporated as part of a two-level minimum cost linear programming algorithm. Mathematical simulation results provide an optimal use of Upper Colorado River water for levels of energy output such that salinity concentrations are maintained below predetermined levels.     

ADAPTATION TO ARIDITY: WATER DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA1

ABSTRACT The Republic of South Africa, legatee of a three-century history of recurring drought, is firmly committed to a program of the optimum use of its water for the national benefit. Its water law encourages centralized planning in that water is held to be the property of the state and is assignable without requiring acquiescence by the basin or province of origin. Interbasin diversions from the Tugela River to the Vaal River Basin, from the Orange River to the Fish and Sundays River Basins, and from several basins to Cape Town are under construction as are facilities for water importation from Lesotho and Angola. For satisfaction of demands beyond the year 2000 the nation may depend increasingly on a shift of its power production and water-using industry from the coal fields of the central plateau to nuclear power development with associated desalination along its coasts. Alternatively, and preferably, it may cooperate in a co-prosperity bloc in Southern Africa aiding the economies of its neighbors by development for mutual advantage of the water and power resources of the Okavango and other northern rivers.     

IDENTIFICATION OF CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A set of procedures for identifying changes in selected streamflow characteristics at sites having long‐term continuous streamflow records is illustrated by using streamflow data from the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina for the 55‐year period of 1940–1994. Data were evaluated and compared to streamflow in the adjacent Lumber River Basin to determine if changes in streamflow characteristics in the Waccamaw River were localized and possibly the result of some human activity, or consistent with regional variations. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual one‐, seven‐, and 30‐day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flows in the Waccamaw River at the 90 percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985–194, a relatively dry period, were very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970–1979, which represents the 10‐year period between 1940 and 1994 with the highest flows. Prior to the 1980s, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970s. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985–1994.     

The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool; a tool to screen options for reducing nutrient loads while minimizing cost

Excess loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to river networks causes environmental harm, but reducing loads from large river basins is difficult and expensive. We developed a new tool, the River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool (RBEROST) to identify the least-cost combinations of management practices that will reduce nutrient loading to target levels in downstream and mid-network waterbodies. We demonstrate the utility of the tool in a case study in the Upper Connecticut River Basin in New England, USA. The total project cost of optimized lowest-cost plans ranged from $18.0 million to $41.0 million per year over 15 years depending on user specifications. Plans include both point source and non-point source management practices, and most costs are associated with urban stormwater practices. Adding a 2% margin of safety to loading targets improved the estimated probability of success from 37.5% to 99%. The large spatial scale of RBEROST, and the consideration of both point and non-point source contributions of nutrients, make it well suited as an initial screening tool in watershed planning.     

POSTFIRE SUSPENDED SEDIMENT FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK,WYOMING1

ABSTRACT: Wildfires in 1988 burned over 2000 square miles of the greater Yellowstone area in Montana and Wyoming in the largest fires in the history of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). A four-year postfire study to estimate fire-related changes in suspended sediment transport on the Yellowstone River and its principal tributary in YNP, the Lamar River, benefitted from a recently completed three-year prefire baseline study. Both studies took daily depth-integrated samples from April through September. Fire-related changes in suspended sediment were distinguished from natural climatic variations by two methods: comparison of forecast postfire sediment loads estimated with prefire sediment-rating equations to measured postfire loads; and by postfire changes in suspended sediment load expressed per unit volume runoff. Both methods indicated postfire sediment increases that varied according to season. The higher elevation Lamar River basin had little postfire increase in spring snowmelt season sediment but large increases in summer sediment load. The Yellowstone River had postfire increases in sediment load for the spring but did not reflect the large summer increases of its upstream tributary. The reasons for the difference in postfire snowmelt sediment response are unclear but may relate to basin elevation differences, the effects of unburned watersheds, and cooler postfire springs. The few high streamflow snowmelt events in the postfire period mitigated postfire sediment increases.     

中国消费中长期发展趋势及能源环境效应研究

随着消费在经济发展中的比重逐步增加,其引致的能源消耗和污染物排放越来越不容忽视。本研究基于投入产出模型,分别测算了居民消费引致的直接和间接能源消耗与污染物排放,然后参考发达国家相应发展阶段的居民消费结构,展望未来居民消费发展趋势,进一步测算未来居民消费的能源与环境效应。未来我国消费占GDP的比重将稳步上升,到2050年逐步提高到70%以上;居民消费结构将显著调整,食品占比显著下降,仅为15%,文教娱乐、医疗保健和其他服务占比显著上升;居民消费引致的一次能源需求到2050年将达到30.4亿吨标煤,占全社会能源需求的52.4%;化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放量将分别达到2497万t、261万t、1722万t、1157万t,占全社会污染物排放产生量的60%以上。研究表明,进一步强化居民消费产品绿色低碳发展、优化居民消费结构,将成为未来推进我国高质量发展和污染防治的重要领域。     

REAPPRAISAL OF WATER SUPPLY RESOURCES IN DELAWARE RIVER BASIN USING SYNTHETIC HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT The 60's drought (1961 1966) which hit the Northeastern United States, had its center over the Delaware River Basin and caused water supply shortages to New York City, Philadelphia, and many other towns and industries in the Basin. Until this event occurred, the existing water supply sources and those planned for the future had been considered adequate, as they were designed for the worst drought of record (usually the 1930-31 drought). In view of this “change in hydrology,” the Delaware River Basin Commission authorized a study (DRBC Resolution 67-4) to re-evaluate the adequacy of existing and planned water supply sources of the Delaware River Basin and its Service Area (New York City and northern New Jersey). Synthetic hydrology is a tool which can be used to overcome many of the limitations of the traditional approach. By analyzing generated streamflow traces in this study, it has been determined that there is a definite relationship between the accumulated rainfall deficiency during the drought and the return periods associated with various durations of runoff in the drought. This indicated that generated traces can be used to standardize the hydrology over an area where the intensity of drought varied. This represented an important facet in the study, because it provided a means to equalize the effects of this drought over the study area, and gave the Delaware River Basin Commission more information so that it could better plan and manage its water resources equitably, not only for the people within the Basin, but for the New York City and northern New Jersey areas as well. Synthetic hydrology was used to determine yield-probability relationships for 50-year periods, and storage-yield-frequency relationships for existing and planned water-supply reservoirs. It was also used to determine yield-probability relationships for reservoir systems within the Basin. In the study, it was determined that monthly streamflow traces and uniform draft rates could be used in yield analysis because of the magnitude of the reservoirs and because seasonal variations of draft rate are small in the study area. Although it was found that with the streamflow generating models (first order Markov) in common use today, it is not possible to definitely determine the actual frequency of a very severe historic drought, it is possible to place a drought in perspective by using synthetic hydrology. The study showed that it is a useful tool in determining water availability over a basin and is useful in studying water management problems such as interbasin transfers, and reservoir systems operations.     

WATER CONSTRAINTS ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The pressure on water resources from energy resource development and transformation is likely to be greater in the future than it has been in the past. A rational resolution of the political problems that this situation will generate requires that: 1) planning based on predictions of future energy supply and demand be replaced by scenario, or “what if?” analysis; 2) full attention be paid to the uncertainties in per-unit-energy water requirements; 3) suitable stochastic measures of water availability be used to compare water supply with water demand; 4) realistic ecological criteria, and other alternative use criteria, be developed for estimating impacts of water withdrawn or consurned for energy development; 5) human consequences of ecological impaccts are described in a manner that will allow the political process to intervene in an optimum manner to allocate water resources.