Household Behaviour in Response to Earthquake Risk: An Assessment of Alternative Theories

Households respond to earthquake risk in different ways. The main theories explaining human behaviour under threat of earthquakes are reviewed. A survey of households' responses in Tehran and Rasht in Iran to earthquake risks is used to assess the validity of psychological, 'need', socio-cultural and economic theories in explaining behaviour. More support of cognitive and cultural theories is found rather than economic and 'need' theories of earthquake safety measures; this suggests that positive adoption of mitigation measures can be encouraged in terms of cognitive processes through information and education.     

Perceptions of risk characteristics of earthquakes compared to other hazards and their impact on risk tolerance

People tolerate different levels of risk owing to a variety of hazards. Previous research shows that the psychometric properties of hazards predict people's tolerance of them. However, this work has not taken into account events such as earthquakes. The present study tested how earthquakes score vis‐à‐vis risk properties and risk tolerance as compared to five other familiar hazards. Participants from Wellington, New Zealand (N=139) rated these six hazards using measures of risk characteristics and risk tolerance. Participants demonstrated different levels of risk tolerance for the different hazards and viewed earthquakes as having similar risk features to nuclear power. They also preferred different risk mitigation strategies for earthquakes (more government funding) to the other five hazards (stronger legislation). In addition, earthquake risk tolerance was predicted by different risk characteristics than the other five hazards. These findings will help risk communicators in identifying which risk characteristics to target to influence citizens' risk tolerance.     

Towards an earthquake-resilient world: from post-disaster reconstruction to pre-disaster prevention

ABSTRACT

Destructive earthquakes in urban or rural areas around the world have caused severe damage to local societies. Pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster reconstruction can significantly reduce the impact of earthquakes on communities. To explore the popular research topics and trends in this area, CiteSpace was used to develop a knowledge map visualization. It was found that the main research into earthquake disaster prevention and reconstruction has been focused on disaster risk reduction planning, disaster mitigation knowledge, participatory disaster governance, and community resilience building. In this Special Issue, there were six distinctive earthquake disaster research papers that covered scientific, social, and institutional aspects. It was concluded that to reduce the effects of earthquake disasters, an interdisciplinary research approach and systems thinking is needed. The investigation also revealed that there has been a paradigm shift from post-disaster reconstruction to pre-disaster prevention to build community and urban resilience.     

农村家庭认知与响应地震灾害的特点及其家庭际差异——以2007年云南宁洱6.4级地震灾区为例

以2007年云南宁洱6.4级地震灾区为例,通过现场访谈和问卷调查,分析了该地区农村家庭认知与响应地震灾害的特点及其家庭际的差异性。结果表明:当地农村家庭认知与响应地震灾害的水平尚不理想,综合防震减灾能力较弱;家庭对地震灾害知识和防震减灾技能的掌握程度,显著地影响着其在震时及震后的响应行为和态度,其中防震减灾技能的影响更显著;经济收入和教育背景不同的家庭,其地震灾害的认知水平和响应能力也呈现出明显的差异性,其中受教育程度的影响更明显,且可能是最根本的影响因素;家庭人口总数与家庭地震灾害认知与响应的综合能力呈显著的负相关关系,但这种影响也叠加了家庭经济文化因素的影响;对研究区而言,加强防震减灾实用技能和震时如何有效应对地震影响方面的教育,具有更重要的现实意义。     

2020年全国公众防震减灾素养水平及主要特点研究

2020年中国地震局开展了全国公众防震减灾知识普及和科普满意度抽样调查,结果显示,17.1%的受访者具备防震减灾素养,与2018年中国公民科学素质调查结果相比较,公众防震减灾素养水平的区域分布有明显不一样的规律,公众防震减灾素养水平与区域经济发展水平之间没有明显的相关性,区域地震灾害程度和个人地震经历对公众防震减灾素养水平有显著的影响。防震减灾素养水平在城乡、性别、受教育水平等不同群体中的差别,和中国公民科学素质调查结果基本一致,受教育水平对防震减灾素养水平影响最大。在不同年龄群体中的差别则和中国公民科学素质调查结果不同,显示出独特的规律。在防震减灾科普工作中,需要重视公众防震减灾素养水平的这些特点,采取有针对性的措施来提升科普效率。     

“一带一路”地区百余年地震时空演变特征

本研究基于“一带一路”地区1900-2018年间≥5级地震事件空间数据,采用小波周期与热区识别方法,分析了该地区地震灾害的空间分布格局与时间周期性特征,并识别了地震灾害空间热区及其演变特征。研究表明:(1)1900-2018年,“一带一路”地区地震发生频次表现出波动性上升的“三段式”分布,主要发生在亚欧大陆-喜马拉雅山周围的亚欧板块与印度洋板块的交界处以及俄罗斯东部沿海、印度尼西亚东南部的环太平洋地区;(2)地震频发地区和震级较强地区均具有多时间尺度的周期变化特征,及一定的空间聚集性,并逐渐演变成高发热区和高强热区;(3)中国和印度尼西亚发生频率远高于其他国家,而缅甸、孟加拉、马尔代夫等国发生频次较低,但其震级强度相对较大。研究结果提示我们未来针对“一带一路”地区基础设施的投资应适当规避地震频发地区及未来潜在的高强热区,同时加强国际间减灾防灾合作,从而更好的降低或预防“一带一路”地区基础设施建设的地震灾害风险。     

包头6.4级地震多层砖房震害与分析

人们对于如何抗御地震灾害的认识,在很大程度上来自地震的经验,本文根据现场调查的结果,对包头地震中多层砖房的震害进行了统计,对不同设防情形的多层砖房震害进行了比较;还选取５栋多层砖房进行了抗震验算,并与其实际震害进行了对比分析。     

Public participation in NGO-oriented communities for disaster prevention and mitigation (N-CDPM) in the Longmen Shan fault area during the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake periods

ABSTRACT

The Longmen Shan fault area in southwest China is one of the world’s most active earthquake zones. The epicenters of the two most recent earthquakes, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0?Ms) and the 2013 Lushan earthquake (7.0?Ms), both of which caused serious losses, were only 85?km apart. Community-based disaster risk reduction is the foundation of the disaster management system pyramid and is critical to the success of ‘sustainable hazard mitigation’. Based on multiple collaborative stakeholder perspectives, this paper examines public participation in an NGO-oriented Community for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (N-CDPM) in the period between the two earthquakes as a multi-stage problem; N-CDPM establishment, normal operations, disaster testing, and continuous improvement. Multi-stage field research was conducted in the affected areas in the Longmen Shan fault area to examine the collaboration in each stage, after which the differences were compared across the four stages based on eight key indices; scales, core stakeholders, core network stability, mean number of lines, mean collaborative level, governments, and individual and public organization participation. The government participation, individual participation, and public organization participation are then discussed. This paper provides a novel research approach to CDPM in multiple earthquake regions and gives rich insights into the collaboration between the government and the public for N-CDPM.     

Injuries as a Result of California Earthquakes in the Past Decade

The devastating effects of earthquakes have been demonstrated repeatedly in the past decade, through moderate and major earthquakes such as the October 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake (5.9 on the Richter scale), the October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (7.1) and the January 1994 Northridge earthquake (6.7). While 'official' tallies of injuries and deaths are reported for each event, the numbers vary from report to report. For Northridge, the number of injuries vary between 8,000 and 12,000; the number of deaths from 33 to 73 (Peek-Asa et al., 1997; Durkin, 1996).While official estimates are commonly reported following disasters, the study of actual numbers, types and causes of casualties has not developed. In this paper, we identify the numbers and risk factors for injuries within community-based samples across three earthquakes in urban California. We first report the numbers and types of injuries in each earthquake and then identify risk factors specifically associated with the Northridge earthquake     

Human vulnerability, dislocation and resettlement: adaptation processes of river-bank erosion-induced displacees in Bangladesh

The purpose of this research was to identify and analyse patterns of economic and social adaptation among river-bank erosion-induced displacees in Bangladesh. It was hypothesised that the role of social demographic and socio-economic variables in determining the coping ability and recovery of the river-bank erosion-induced displacees is quite significant. The findings of the research reveal that displacees experience substantial socio-economic impoverishment and marginalisation as a consequence of involuntary migration. This in part is a socially constructed process, reflecting inequitable access to land and other resources. Vulnerability to disasters is further heightened by a number of identifiable social and demographic factors including gender, education and age, although extreme poverty and marginalisation create complexity to isolate the relative influence of these variables. The need to integrate hazard analysis and mitigation with the broader economic and social context is discussed. It is argued that the capacity of people to respond to environmental threats is a function of not only the physical forces which affect them, but also of underlying economic and social relationships which increase human vulnerability to risk. Hazard analysis and mitigation can be more effective when it takes into account such social and demographic and socio-economic dimensions of disasters.     

The source parameters, surface deformation and tectonic setting of three recent earthquakes: thessalonki (Greece), tabas-e-golshan (iran) and carlisle (u.k.)

Abstract- Three earthquakes have been studied. These are the Thessaloniki earthquake of 20th June 1978 (Ms = 6.4, Normal faulting), the Tabase-Golshan earthquake of 16th September 1978 (Ms = 7.7 Thrust faulting) and the Carlisle earth-quake of 26th December 1979 (Mb = 5.0, Thrust faulting). The techniques employed to determine source parameters included field studies of SUP face deformation, fault breaks, locations of locally recorded aftershocks and teleseismic studies including joint hypocentral location, first motion methods and waveform modelling. It is clear that these techniques applied together provide more information than the same methods used separately. The moment of the Thessaloniki earthquake determined teleseismically (Force moment 5.2 times 10(25) dyne cm. Geometric moment 1.72 times 10(8) m(3) ) is an order of magnitude greater than that determined using field data (surface ruptures and aftershock depths) (Force moment 4.5 times 10(24) dyne cm. Geometric moment 0.16 times 10(8) m(3) ). It is concluded that for this earthquake the surface rupture only partly reflects the processes on the main rupture plane. This view i s supported by a distribution of aftershocks and damage which extends well outside the region of ground rupture. However, the surface breaks consistently have the same slip vector direction as the fault plane solutions suggesting that they are in this respect related to to the main faulting and are not superficial slumping. Both field studies and waveform studies suggest a low stress drop which may explain the relatively little damage and loss of life as a result of the Thessaloniki earthquake. In contrast, the teleseismic moment of the Tabas-e-Golshan earthquake (Force moment 4.4 times 10(26) dyne cm. Geometric moment 1.5 times 10(9) m(3) ) is similar t o that determined from field studies (Force moment 10.2 times 10(26) dyne cm. Geometric moment 3.4 times 10(9) m(3) ) and the damage and after-shock distributions clearly relate to the surface faulting. It h a s also been observed that high aftershock activity appears beneath gaps in the surface rupture system. The Carlisle earthquake (Force moment 9 times 10(23) dyne cm. Geometric moment 3 times 10(6) m(3) ) produced no surface ruptures. However, dislocation model-ling suggests that surface deformation will be visible on a first order levelling line which passes very close t o the epicentre. A well controlled fault plane solution, the first in the British Isles, derived from an aftershock study shows north-south compression. All three studied earthquakes occurred along major faults which had been reactivated in geological times. The fault on which the Tabas-e-Golshan earthquake occurred could have been identified a s active from evidence of Quaternary motion and previous smaller earthquakes. However, there were no perceptible events in the 12 months preceeding the catastrophic earthquake. In both Thessaloniki and Carlisle, significant foreshocks did occur within 6 months prior to the main shock*     

江苏-南黄海地区断裂带附近的小震活动与主震的关系

通过对 1 970年以来 ,江苏南黄海地区的 9次ML>5 4中强地震发生前的中小震活动分析 ,发现该地区ML>5 4中强地震 (本文称为主震 )发生前 2～ 3年内均有一系列ML3 0左右中小地震发生 ,而且这些中小地震的空间分布与主震在同一断裂带上。根据断裂带上的中小震活动情况 ,运用地震活动性的有关分析方法 ,对未来地震进行外推 ,并进行检验。得出 ,可以将断裂带附近发生的一些ML3 0左右的小震 ,视为该断裂带上将要发生的主震     

华北几次大震前弱震分布参数R(t)的异常变化

本文详细研究了1974年以来华北地区9次Ms≥5.0级大震前,小震时空分布参数R(t)的变化特征.结果表明:华北地区9次Ms≥5.0级大震前小震时空分布参数R(t)值均出现了先上升,然后下降直至主震发生的异常图象。根据R(t)值异常可能对未来发生的大震作出一定程度的预报.文中对R(t)值异常变化的机制进行了初步讨论.     

Coping strategies and risk manageability: using participatory geographical information systems to represent local knowledge

The accumulated knowledge and perceptions of communities 'at risk' are key elements in managing disaster risk at the local level. This paper demonstrates that local knowledge of flood hazards can be structured systematically into geographic information system (GIS) outputs. When combined with forecasting models and risk scenarios, they strengthen the legitimacy of local knowledge of at-risk populations. This is essential for effective disaster risk reduction practices by external actors, local non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and municipal authorities. The research focused on understanding coping strategies and 'manageability' of flood hazards as defined by communities. 'Manageability' is how people experience flooding in relation to their household capacity and the coping mechanisms available. The research in the Philippines highlights the significance of localised factors, including socioeconomic resources, livelihoods, seasonality and periodicity, for understanding manageability. The manageability concept improves practice at the municipal level by legitimising local coping strategies, providing better indicators, and developing understanding of flooding as a recurrent threat.     

Immediate behavioural responses to earthquakes in Christchurch,New Zealand,and Hitachi,Japan

This study examines people's immediate responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch and 332 respondents in Hitachi revealed notable similarities between the two cities in people's emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and immediate protective actions during the events. Respondents' physical, household, and social contexts were quite similar, but Hitachi residents reported somewhat higher levels of emotional reaction and risk perception than did Christchurch residents. Contrary to the recommendations of emergency officials, the most frequent response of residents in both cities was to freeze. Christchurch residents were more likely than Hitachi residents to drop to the ground and take cover, whereas Hitachi residents were more likely than Christchurch residents to evacuate immediately the building in which they were situated. There were relatively small correlations between immediate behavioural responses and demographic characteristics, earthquake experience, and physical, social, or household context.     

不同地震序列类型地震的特征性质研究

收集整理了1993年以来的地震资料,建立M5地震和M6地震两个样本组,选取发震断层、震源复杂性、视应力3个参数,使用模糊等价关系的聚类分析方法对地震进行分类,把具有相同性质的地震归为同一类,研究孤立型、主余型、多震型地震的某些特征性质。结果表明:1孤立型地震性质:震源错动方式简单,应力降高或很高,视应力低或很低,震源区介质非均匀程度低;2多震型地震性质:对于走滑断层地震,震源错动方式复杂,应力降低或很低,视应力偏高或很高,震源区介质非均匀程度较高。     

Earthquake survivors' quality of life and academic achievement six years after the earthquakes in Marmara, Turkey

This study investigates the quality of life (QOL) and academic achievement of earthquake survivors six years after the earthquakes in Marmara, Turkey. Data were collected from 407 Turkish university students. Of these, 201 were earthquake survivors and 206 had not been exposed to an earthquake. The Turkish adaptation of the brief version of the World Health Organisation's QOL instrument (WHOQOL-BREF, TR) was used to measure QOL. The results reveal that the earthquake survivors' psychological and environmental domains of QOL and academic achievement were significantly lower than those of individuals not exposed to an earthquake. The results also highlight the risk factors that affect the QOL of the earthquake survivors significantly. These are their gender, their age at the time of earthquake and the continued existence of financial difficulties linked to the earthquakes.     

黄土边坡动力响应分析

运用有限差分软件FLAC3D,建立了某一黄土边坡三维模型,首先对其在地震作用下的动力响应规律进行了总结,然后探讨了地震动参数对黄土边坡动力响应的影响。结果表明:黄土边坡对地震波存在垂直放大和临空面放大作用;当输入地震波振幅或频率增加时,坡面监测点加速度放大系数随坡高增加呈"增加→衰减→增加"的三段形态;速度放大系数随坡高的增大而增大,并在坡顶达到最大值;位移放大系数随振幅和频率的增加而增加;地震持时对加速度、速度峰值的影响不大,但坡体位移随持时的增加而显著增加。强震作用下的最大剪应变增量区域的位置和形状表明,黄土边坡的破坏模式仍是沿着某一弧形潜在滑动面失稳破坏。研究结果有助于进一步揭示黄土边坡在地震作用下的失稳机制,为黄土地区边坡抗震设计与防灾减灾提供参考。     

腾冲火山区地震的震源参数

火山区地震与非火山区或者说一般构造区地震的震源参数有何差异?本文使用2002-06-13～09-13腾冲火山区流动数字地震观测台网记录到的火山区地震资料,用波谱分析方法测算腾冲火山区地震的震源力学参数。对其中33个地震分析得出:腾冲火山区的地震震源浅,震级偏小;地震矩M0在8.32×1010～8.96×1012N·m之间;震级与地震矩之间的关系式为logM0=0.98ML+10.48,与姚安构造区得出的结果基本一致;震源位错半径在0.124～0.418km;地震应力降在(0.005～0.277)×105Pa,仅为姚安构造区地震应力降的1/5。这些结果表明腾冲火山区存在浅的岩浆体活动,在该区无大的应力积累。