基于灰色模型和模糊神经网络的综合水质预测模型研究

水质状态变化趋势预测研究对水资源管理和维护具有重要的现实意义。提出了一种将灰色模型和模糊神经网络相结合的水质预测模型。首先基于改进的灰色模型预测出水体中各理化因子在未来一段时间内的指标变化,然后采用T-S模糊神经网络对各单因子的预测值进行数据融合,构建水质变化综合趋势预测模型,预测出下一时间段的水质整体状态指标。实验表明,这种方式用来预测湖泊水质变化趋势具有可行性;与BP网络模型相比,基于T-S模糊神经网络系统的模型具有预测精度高、模型系统稳定等优越性。     

多元回归和BP人工神经网络在预测混合厌氧消化产气量过程中的应用比较

对脂肪类单基质和城市污水厂剩余污泥混合厌氧消化过程的产气阶段进行基于多元回归和BP人工神经网络的产气量预测模型比较研究。实验数据分别取自反应过程的第1～16天和第17～70天。结果表明:多元回归模型的预测平均准确率分别为75.69%和79.29%;BP神经网络模型的预测平均准确率为79.05%。通过对比2种模型的预测结果可知,两种模型都有较高的预测准确率,但BP模型的预测准确率更高,更适用于混合厌氧消化产气量预测。     

BP神经网络对蚯蚓滤池处理COD的模拟预测

基于蚯蚓滤池处理去除污染物的非线性特点,利用BP神经网络建立了蚯蚓滤池处理COD的基本模型结构。同时对实验数据进行了验证和预测,通过权值贡献率分析确定了各种输入因素对COD出水浓度的影响。结果表明:COD的出水模型预测值与实际值平均误差较小,模型稳定,预测效果好。输入神经元为4,隐含神经元为8,输出神经元为1,学习速率为0.1,动量为0.1,训练次数为10 000的BP神经网络模型,预测的COD出水值最接近真实值。COD进水浓度对COD出水影响最大,符合理论研究结果。BP神经网络模型建立的成功为后续生活污水智能化控制的研究提供了相应的理论基础。     

基于改进BP神经网络的厌氧发酵产气量预测模型

为准确预测大中型沼气工程日产气量,采用改进BP神经网络算法,引入动量和自适应调节学习率,根据厌氧发酵机理以及实际工程运行状况,建立以温度、TS浓度以及pH值作为输入层节点,沼气日产气量为输出层节点的预测模型。利用实验获取的150组数据作为模型的训练样本和测试样本,通过Matlab软件进行仿真,结果表明,改进的BP神经网络对沼气的日产气量具有良好的预测能力,建立的沼气日产气量预测模型不仅收敛速度快而且精度高,150组数据的平均预测准确率为84.02%。     

深圳市区空气污染的人工神经网络预测

利用深圳市2006至2013年的大气污染物监测浓度数据和气象资料,分析深圳市空气质量的逐月分布变化特征。采用Pearson相关分析,选择显著相关因子,分别以BP神经网络和RBF神经网络构建空气质量预测模型,对该市2013年SO2、NO2、PM103种空气污染物的月均值进行预测。实验结果表明,通过Pearson相关分析建立的预测模型有更高的预报精度。BP和RBF 2种网络预测效果都比较理想,对不同污染物的预测精度各有高低。但BP网络的构建和参数优化过程较为复杂且网络训练结果不稳定,而RBF网络构建和训练简单,时间短而结果稳定。在综合性能上,RBF网络用于环境空气污染物浓度的预测具有更强的适用性。     

基于IGA-BP网络的水质预测方法

针对水质预测中传统BP神经网络模型收敛速度慢,对隐层结点选取缺乏有效的手段等问题,引入了遗传算法优化BP网络的结构和隐层神经元阈值和连接权值,通过设计灵活的实数编码方案和新型交叉算子等,对实数编码遗传算法进行改进,在此基础上,提出了一种基于改进的实数编码遗传算法优化BP神经网络(IGA-BP)的水质预测新模型,并以安徽蚌埠蚌埠闸逐周水质监测的PH值数据为例,进行水质预测,通过与传统的GA-BP神经网络以及BP神经网络的水质预测模型对比,结果表明,这种预测方法训练的BP神经网络收敛速度快,样本逼近精度高且泛化能力强。     

遗传神经网络对肼类化合物的定量构效研究

应用遗传算法和反向传播（BP）神经网络相结合的方法，研究了胼类化合物的定量构效（QSAR）关系，构建了遗传神经网络QSAR模型。对30种肼类化合物的6个量子化学参数进行相关性和主成分分析，利用遗传神经网络QSAR模型对肼类化合物的毒性参数进行预测。结果表明，与常规BP神经网络建立的模型相比较，遗传神经网络QSAR模型有效解决了常规BP神经网络模型存在的过训练和过拟合问题，并且具有很好的预测效果。     

多种神经网络在华北西部区域城市空气质量预测中的应用

据华北西部区域4个主要城市2003—2012年API日报数据和相应时段的地面气象要素数据,利用4种(BP、Elman、T-S模糊、小波)神经网络构建预测模型并预测相应城市大气环境质量。研究结果显示,4种模型在可靠性、预测精度方面均可满足应用要求可用于实际预测;具有动态反馈能力的Elman神经网络的预测精度以及泛用性要优于具静态馈能力的其他3种网络模型,说明动态神经网络更适用于城市大气环境质量预测。4种神经网络的决策权重大小及其排序虽各不相同,但体现出相似规律性,日最低气温、日均气压、前日API对输出数据的影响较大,说明逆温现象引发的持续性、区域性污染是该地区主要环境问题。     

化学-生物絮凝工艺类神经网络模型比较研究

在化学-生物絮凝工艺中试研究的基础上，分别建立了基于BP类神经网络的多输入多输出（MIMO）模型与多输入单输出（MISO）模型。应用化学生物絮凝工艺中试6个不同工况的实测数据对2个模型进行训练，均表现出很好的收敛性。通过另外2个中试工况的实测数据对模型预测性能进行测试，MISO模型对化学-生物絮凝反应器出水的COD、TP和SS的预测相对误差均低于MIMO模型，其预测相对误差均在9%以下。研究表明，MISO模型是一个很易使用的建模工具，能很好地预测化学-生物絮凝工艺出水水质。     

基于因子分析法优选河流水体中氮浓度预测方法的研究

定量的河流水体中氮浓度预测方法有很多种,如何优选出预测精度较高的方法一直是学术界多年来致力于研究的重点。本研究采用因子分析法对预测方法的精度评价指标进行分析,并建立了预测方法精度的评价模型,对回归分析法、神经网络法、灰色系统法和增长率统计法4种水体氮浓度预测方法进行综合评估,优选出精度较高的河流水体氮浓度预测模型——BP神经网络预测模型。结果表明,此评估模型对类似研究具有一定的参考价值,能为选择出合适的河流水体氮浓度预测方法提供依据。     

Evaluation of trichloroethene recovery processes in heterogeneous aquifer cells flushed with biodegradable surfactants

The ability of two biodegradable surfactants, polyoxyethylene (20) sorbitan monooleate (Tween 80) and sodium dihexyl sulfosuccinate (Aerosol MA), to recover a representative dense non-aqueous-phase liquid (DNAPL), trichloroethene (TCE), from heterogeneous porous media was evaluated through a combination of batch and aquifer cell experiments. An aqueous solution containing 3.3% Aerosol MA, 8% 2-propanol and 6 g/l CaCl(2) yielded a weight solubilization ratio (WSR) of 1.21 g TCE/g surfactant, with a corresponding liquid-liquid interfacial tension (IFT) of 0.19 dyn/cm. Flushing of aquifer cells containing a TCE-DNAPL source zone with approximately two pore volumes of the AMA formulation resulted in substantial (>30%) mobilization of TCE-DNAPL. However, a TCE mass recovery of 81% was achieved when the aqueous-phase flow rate was sufficient to displace the mobile TCE-DNAPL toward the effluent well. Aqueous solutions of Tween 80 exhibited a greater capacity to solubilize TCE (WSR=1.74 g TCE/g surfactant) and exerted markedly less reduction in IFT (10.4 dyn/cm). These data contradict an accepted empirical correlation used to estimate IFT values from solubilization capacity, and indicate a unique capacity of T80 to form concentrated TCE emulsions. Flushing of aquifer cells with less than 2.5 pore volumes of a 4% T80 solution achieved TCE mass recoveries ranging from 66 to 85%, with only slight TCE-DNAPL mobilization (<5%) occurring when the total trapping number exceeded 2 x 10(-5). These findings demonstrate the ability of Tween 80 and Aerosol MA solutions to efficiently recover TCE from a heterogeneous DNAPL source zone, and the utility of the total trapping number as a design parameter for a priori prediction of DNAPL mobilization and bank angle formation when flushing with low-IFT solutions. Given their potential to stimulate microbial reductive dechlorination at low concentrations, these surfactants are well-suited for remedial action plans that couple aggressive mass removal followed by enhanced bioremediation to treat chlorinated solvent source zones.     

The variation of street air levels of PAH and other mutagenic PAC in relation to regulations of traffic emissions and the impact of atmospheric processes

The occurrence of particle associated PAH and other mutagenic PAC was determined in 1996 in the street air of Copenhagen. In addition, particle extracts were tested for mutagenicity. The measurements were compared with previous measurements in 1992/1993. The levels had decreased in this period. The decrease was caused by an implementation of light diesel fuels for buses and the exchange of older petrol-driven passenger cars with catalystequipped new ones. About 65% of the reduction was caused by the application of the light diesel fuels. Under special conditions, chemical processes in the atmosphere produced many more mutagens than the direct emissions. The concentrations of S-PAC and N-PAC were 10 times lower than those of PAH, while the levels of oxy-PAH were in the same order of magnitude as those of PAH. Benzanthrone, an oxy-PAH, is proposed to be formed in the atmosphere in addition to direct emissions. Benzo(a)pyrene, often applied as an air quality criteria indicator, was photochemically degraded in the atmosphere. A strong increase in the mutagenic activities was observed to coincide with a depletion of benzo(a)pyrene.     

Chloroaromatic pollutants in mussels incubated in two finnish watercourses polluted by industry

Concentrations of different chlorinated compounds were measured in mussels incubated in two polluted watercourses, a river (the River Kymijoki) and a lake (Lake Vanaja) for four weeks in summer 1995. The sum concentrations of polychlorinated phenols (PCP) and biphenyls (PCB) were both about 1 μg/g lipid weight (lw) in Lake Vanaja mussels, while in the River Kymijoki mussels PCPs were non-detectable and PCBs were measured 120 ng/g lIw. The concentrations of toxic polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD) and dibenzofuran (PCDF) congeners ranged between <17 and 370 pg/g Iw in Lake Vanaja mussels and between <38 and 11,000 pg/g lw in the River Kymijoki mussels. Polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDE) were detected in the mussels incubated in the River Kymijoki (0.4–1.1 ng/g Iw), but not in those incubated in Lake Vanaja. Polychlorinated phenoxyanisoles (PCPA) were measured 33 ng/g lw and polychlorinated phenoxyphenols (PCPP) 300 ng/g lw in the mussels incubated in the River Kymijoki. PCPAs were also detected in reference samples, which were sediment and pike from the River Kymijoki and Baltic salmon, seal and white-tailed sea eagle.     

Teratological effects of pesticides in vertebrates: a review

Abstract

In the last decades, the use and misuse of pesticides in the agriculture have increased, having a severe impact on ecosystems and their fauna. Although the various effects of pesticides on biodiversity have been already documented in several studies, to our knowledge no consistent overview of the impact of pesticides in vertebrates, both terrestrial and aquatic, is available. In this review, we try to present a concise compilation of the teratogenic effects of pesticides on the different classes of vertebrates – mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish.     

Radionuclides and trace elements in fish collected upstream and downstream of Los Alamos national laboratory and the doses to humans from the consumption of muscle and bone

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine radionuclide and trace element concentrations in bottom‐feeding fish (catfish, carp, and suckers) collected from the confluences of some of the major canyons that cross Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) lands with the Rio Grande (RG) and the potential radiological doses from the ingestion of these fish. Samples of muscle and bone (and viscera in some cases) were analyzed for ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, ^totU, ²³⁸Pu, ^239,240Pu, and ²⁴¹Am and Ag, As, Ba, Be, Cr, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, and Tl. Most radionuclides, with the exception of ⁹⁰Sr, in the muscle plus bone portions of fish collected from LANL canyons/RG were not significantly (p<0.05) higher from fish collected upstream (San Ildefonso/background) of LANL. Strontium‐90 in fish muscle plus bone tissue significantly (p<0.05) increases in concentration starting from Los Alamos Canyon, the most upstream confluence (fish contained 3.4E‐02 pCi g^‐1 [126E‐02 Bq kg^‐1]), to Frijoles Canyon, the most downstream confluence (fish contained 14E‐02 pCi g^‐1 [518E‐02 Bq kg^‐1]). The differences in ⁹⁰Sr concentrations in fish collected downstream and upstream (background) of LANL, however, were very small. Based on the average concentrations (±2SD) of radionuclides in fish tissue from the four LANL confluences, the committed effective dose equivalent from the ingestion of 46 lb (21 kg) (maximum ingestion rate per person per year) of fish muscle plus bone, after the subtraction of background, was 0.1 ± 0.1 mrem y^‐1 (1.0 ± 1.0 μSv y^‐1), and was far below the International Commission on Radiological Protection (all pathway) permissible dose limit of 100 mrem y^‐1 (1000 μSv y^‐1). Of the trace elements that were found above the limits of detection (Ba, Cu, and Hg) in fish muscle collected from the confluences of canyons that cross LANL and the RG, none were in significantly higher (p<0.05) concentrations than in muscle of fish collected from background locations.     

Book review

The Pesticide Manual ‐ A World Compendium, 8th Edition, C.R. Worthing, Editor and S.B. Walker, Assistant Editor, British Crop Protection Council, BCPC Publications Sales, Bear Farm, Binfield, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 5QE, England. 1987, 1100 pp., UK £50; Overseas £56. ISBN 0–948404–01–9.     

Patterns of volatile metabolites and nonvolatile trichothecenes produced by isolates of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Stachybotrys,Fusarium, Trichoderma,Trichothecium</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Memnoniella</Emphasis>

We reported previously that trichodiene, a volatile trichothecene derivative, was produced by a Stachybotrys isolate, also known to produce highly cytotoxic, non-volatile, macrocyclic trichothecenes (satrotoxins). We investigated the relationship between the production of trichodiene and various non-volatile trichothecenes for several molds. Volatile metabolites were concentrated by adsorption on Tenax TA and analyzed by GC/MS, while non-volatile metabolites were separated by HPLC, derivatized and analyzed by GC/MS. Stachybotrys chartarum isolates producing macrocyclic trichothecenes secreted significantly larger amounts of trichodiene and other sesquiterpenes than isolates which only produced simple trichothecenes. The amounts of secreted trichodiene were relatively small in all cases. With the exception of Memnoniella, which excreted small amounts of sesquiterpenes, the other isolates produced varying amounts of sesquiterpenes, including trichodiene, as well as simple tricothecenes, no detectable trichodiene, but large amounts of griseofulvin derivatives. In Stachybotrys there is apparently a correlation between trichodiene and macrocyclic trichothecene production. In the remaining isolates, there was no simple relationship between trichodiene and non-volatile trichothecene synthesis. Trichodiene is produced in larger amounts by Stachybotrys isolates, which also produce satratoxins, but it will be difficult to utilize this metabolite to detect toxic isolates in buildings due to the relatively small amounts excreted.     

Observations on the influence of water and soil pH on the persistence of insecticides

Abstract

The pH‐disappearance rate profiles were determined at ca. 25°C for 24 insecticides at 4 or 5 pH values over the range 4.5 to 8.0 in sterile phosphate buffers prepared in water‐ethanol (99: 1 v/v). Half‐lives measured at pH 8 were generally smaller than at lower pH values. Changes in half lives between pH 8.0 and 4.5 were largest (>1000x) for the aryl carbamates, carbofuran and carbaryl, the oxime carbamate, oxamyl, and the organophosphorus insecticide, trichlorfon. In contrast, half lives of phorate, terbufos, heptachlor, fensulfothion and aldicarb were affected only slightly by pH changes. Under the experimental conditions described half lives at pH8 varied from 1–2 days for trichlorfon and oxamyl to >1 year for fensulfothion and cyper‐methrin. Insecticide persistence on alumina (acid, neutral and basic), mineral soils amended with aluminum sulfate or calcium hydroxide to different pH values and four natural soils of different pH was examined. No correlation was observed between the measured pH of these solids and the rate of disappearance of selected insecticides applied to them. These observations demonstrate the difficulty of extrapolating the pH dependent disappearance behaviour observed in homogeneous solution to partially solid heterogeneous systems such as soil.     

Knowledge transfer initiative between molecular biologists and environmental researchers and regulators

A Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded Knowledge Transfer (KT) workshop was held in the United Kingdom (UK) to identify the needs and opportunities in the application of molecular biology and ‘omics’ techniques to environmental monitoring and risk assessment. Attendees highlighted a lack of effective communication between end-users and researchers as well as difficulties with data interpretation as reasons behind the slow uptake of molecular biology and omics techniques. A number of promising areas in which new techniques could be implemented at a practical level in the very near future were identified, thereby raising the profile of these recent technologies and providing vital proof of concept work. Molecular taxonomy, bacterial source tracking and pre-screening of chemicals for potential toxicities were all viewed as areas in which omics and molecular techniques could have immediate value, with the aim of reducing cost, increasing efficiency and providing more comprehensive data of improved quality.     

The chemical stability of formulations of some hydrolyzable insecticides in aqueous mixtures with hydrolysis catalysts

Abstract

The active ingredients in commercial formulations of malathion, oxamyl, carbaryl, diazinon, and chlorpyrifos diluted to “spray tank”; concentrations with buffered distilled or natural water of pH 4–9 were stable for at least 24 hr. Formulations of trichlorfon were not stable at pH 7 or above but disappearance rates were slower than for the pure chemical in homogeneous solution. Cupric ion was observed to be an effective catalyst for the hydrolysis of a variety of pure organophosphorus insecticides but did not catalyze hydrolysis of the active ingredients of the formulations examined. Increasing the dilution of the formulation increased the susceptibility of malathion, oxamyl, and carbaryl to hydrolysis.