基于碳排放清单编制的低碳城市规划技术方法研究

低碳城市规划是城市转型发展、低碳发展的重要保障,是对传统城市规划学科知识的拓展,目前没有成熟通用的方法。本文以北京市低碳城市发展规划的相关研究为基础,提出低碳城市规划技术主要包括碳排放清单编制与核算、规划碳排放情景分析、城市低碳发展路线图、以及低碳规划策略选择与政策制定等。低碳城市规划技术的核心在于将城市规划要素纳入碳排放清单框架,使碳排放核算与规划策略、城市终端活动相关联。以IPCC碳排放清单框架为基础,将统计数据中的国民经济部类能源消费数据拆分、重组,转化为生产、建筑、交通三个部门的能源消费数据,再转化为承载终端能源消费活动的规划用地分类,实现碳排放清单框架的二次转换。在能源消费数据的拆分、重组过程中,主要采用Kaya公式变形的方法,将规划要素、终端活动、能源供应和用能效率等因子纳入计算公式,进而纳入碳排放计算框架,实现碳排放-规划要素-终端活动的关联。在此基础之上,还可以分析规划策略的碳减排潜力和贡献率,确定规划策略的优先序。这些技术手段是实现低碳城市规划科学化、定量化和可考核的重要保障。根据对北京市城市能耗和碳排放的核算分析,可以发现北京市城市能耗与碳排放总量仍呈增长趋势,但已经和经济增长脱钩。采用"十二五规划"已经确定的政策措施,能够实现国家规定的节能减碳目标,北京应当提出更加严格的规划目标。研究提出强化低碳情景目标,万元GDP碳排放强度降低到2005年的约三分之一,而碳排放总量较2009年仅略有增长。通过对规划策略的碳减排潜力分析发现,在产业、建筑、交通三个部门中,现阶段产业部门节能减碳的潜力仍然最大,未来随着产业结构的调整,建筑、交通将成为减碳的主要部门。在各类减碳策略中,总体规模、产业结构、人均用地和建筑面积等指标,以及交通出行分担率等与规划相关要素在节能减碳工作中的贡献率超过50%,应成为未来北京市减碳对策的重要内容。     

安徽省城市化进程中的碳排放影响因素研究——基于STIRPAT模型

通过对安徽省2000~2011年能源消费碳排放量及碳排放强度进行了测算分析，并基于STIRPAT模型，运用因子主成分回归方法，构建影响城市化进程中碳排放增长的驱动因子模型，对城市化进程中碳排放影响因子进行定量分析研究。研究表明：安徽省2000~2011年能源消费碳排放量呈逐年递增态势，碳排放强度和能源强度均逐年递减态势；安徽省在城市化快速进程中，第二产业产值、第三产业产值、城镇人口比重、城镇建成区面积、城镇居民人均可支配收入每增加1%时，碳排放总量将增加1.208 8%、0.202 0%、0.502 3%、4.793 8%、1.066 0%；当能源强度每下降1%时，碳排放总量将减少0.120 2%；城镇建成区面积扩张、工业化水平提升促进了能源的消耗，成为碳排放的主要驱动因素。鉴于此，提出严格控制城市发展用地规模、通过科技创新推动能源利用效率提高及开发利用新能源、优化产业结构及提高三次产业占GDP比重、建设紧凑型低碳城市、倡导低碳绿色生态的生产消费模式等政策建议，为实现建设生态文明以及实现“生态安徽”与“美丽安徽”目标提供科学依据，也可为中尺度（省级行政区）城市化进程中碳排放的研究提供示范     

中国低碳试点城市的碳排放特征与碳减排路径研究

城市既是温室气体排放最主要的领域,也是易受到气候变化影响的领域,实现城市的碳减排已成为全球应对气候变化日益重要的举措。中国正在经历全球规模最大、速度最快的城镇化进程,城市的低碳发展对于中国实现应对气候变化目标,推进生态文明建设,实现经济、社会与环境的共赢意义重大。2010年7月以来,中国国家发展和改革委员会先后开展了三批87个低碳省区和低碳城市的试点工作。根据低碳城市试点的进展,本文采用Tapio脱钩模型考察低碳试点城市经济增长与碳排放总量变动之间的关系,并根据脱钩弹性系数的大小将低碳试点城市分为低碳成熟型、低碳成长型、低碳后发型三种。在对城市进行分类的基础上采用STIRPAT模型,考察经济规模、能源结构、产业结构、城镇化水平等因素和碳排放总量和人均碳排放量之间的关系,识别不同驱动因素对试点城市碳排放的影响,依据碳排放驱动因素识别不同类型城市的减排路径。研究结论表明,对于低碳成熟型城市,大力发展可再生能源,加大研发投入是有效的减排途径;对于低碳成长型城市,优化产业结构,提升城镇化质量是减少碳排放的关键;对于低碳后发型城市,实现低碳发展需在促进经济增长的基础上,加快淘汰落后产能,加速产业升级转型。同时,位于东、中、西不同区域的低碳试点城市呈现出不同的碳排放特征,未来在探索差异化、多元化的城市减排路径时,区域性的绿色低碳协同发展有利于实现城市碳减排的目标。     

中国低碳城市发展路线图研究

在掌握国内外低碳城市发展的理论与实践动态,借鉴运用国际国内低碳城市发展的最新资料和前沿成果的基础上,结合我国转变发展方式、促进可持续的城镇化与城市发展的实际,开展中国低碳城市发展路线图研究。认为低碳城市发展路线图是城市为实现低碳发展而制订的战略、规划和详细的计划、方案,以及对城市制订低碳城市战略、编制温室气体排放清单、制定和实施规划以及监测评估等一系列行动的过程和制度设计。从低碳城市发展战略和规划的制订、低碳城市规划实施和监测、低碳城市温室气体排放清单编制等方面开展理论研究与制度设计,提出有中国特色的低碳城市发展路线图,为我国低碳城市发展提供可行的路径和方法指导,探索有中国特色低碳城市发展模式,推动中国城市走低碳、高效、可持续发展的道路。     

中国低碳城市发展模式与行动策略

建设低碳城市是促进节能减排和经济社会持续发展的重要战略举措,成为未来城市发展的重要导向和路径选择.从低碳城市发展重要性和紧迫性入手,在立足基本国情的基础上设计了低碳城市发展愿景.结合城市化快速推进预期和经济社会发展需求,分阶段提出了低碳城市发展目标.从总体模式、指导理念、基本思路、主要领域等对我国低碳城市发展模式进行了构想.在此基础上,提出我国低碳城市发展的实施步骤和行动策略.研究认为,我国低碳城市发展模式应选择“C”模式,以低碳发展为主导方向,以节能减排为发展方式,以低碳生产和低碳生活为主要方法.按照控源、减碳、增汇的基本思路,依靠理念创新、技术创新和制度创新,在低碳产业、低碳能源、低碳技术以及低碳生活等领域,通过构建低碳城市规划理论框架、建立低碳城市评价标准和体系、加快相关政策规章与制度建设、开展城市碳交易试点以及加强监督指导等措施,立足国情、统筹兼顾,分步骤、分阶段有序推进低碳城市发展.     

低碳城市建设评价:理论基础、分析框架与政策启示

城市是现代文明的标志,是推进低碳经济转型、推动经济社会高质量发展的重要空间和行动单元。着力于推动经济发展和应对气候变化的有机统一,低碳发展水平的排名和评价已经成为新型城镇化建设领域重要的理论分析和新型政策管理工具。开展低碳城市建设评价,其重点是要在明晰低碳城市建设评价的理论基础和政策导向的基础上,解决如何科学界定低碳城市建设评价的基本模式与分析框架,进而求解以何种速度和规模去推动城市向低碳经济转型。围绕"走中国特色新型城镇化道路、全面提高城镇化质量"的新要求,本文以城市低碳发展质量(效率)为测量维度,通过突出"探索低碳发展模式、践行低碳发展路径"的政策重点和实践需求,对低碳城市建设评价的内涵进行解析,阐释了低碳城市建设评价的理论基础与政策导向;采用分类分析的评价模式,从核心概念、理论基础、指标设置、评价方法及应用等方面对低碳城市建设评价的国际国内经验进行针对性梳理;构建了低碳城市建设评价指标体系设计的技术路径,提出了推进低碳城市建设评价工作的政策重点和保障措施:(1)厘清气候治理对低碳城市建设的影响机理;(2)以问题为导向进行具有最佳拟合优度的指标构建;(3)完善评价程序及对接城市低碳发展蓝图;(4)在明晰评价方法、评价指标的统计意义和政策内涵的基础上提高已有评价体系之间的衔接与耦合度;(5)加强评价结果的使用,为精准快速把握新型城镇化蕴含的碳生产力机遇、准确研判城镇化发展中的突出矛盾和问题、妥善应对城镇化面临的风险和挑战提供理论支持和决策依据。     

低碳经济与城市规划变革

低碳经济已成为备受关注的热点,但现行城市规划在某些方面与低碳经济发展要求还不相适应。针对于此,本文从低碳经济和现代城市规划的缘起着手,认为两者都源自于工业化进程,同根同源决定了其在社会发展中相生相伴的关系。之后采用比较研究法,通过对发达国家和发展中国家的发展要求、多种相关规划理念的比较,探讨我国低碳经济和城市的实质,认为我国低碳城市应将低碳生产、生活与促进新经济形态产生和发展相结合。并据此进一步提出合适的规模、紧凑的形态、高效的综合交通体系、促进低碳技术和政策实施等四点与城市规划密切相关的低碳城市特征。在此基础上,本文分析了规划指导思想和编制方法重外延而轻内涵式发展、规划科学性和管理力度不足、相关标准指导性不足和基础设施建设协调不力等现行城市规划体系与低碳发展不相适应之处。并据此提出三点建议,即转变相关理念,建立低碳的城市规划体系;探寻城市低碳发展模式,创新规划编制方法和内容;强化低碳发展策略研究,重视规划实施和管理。     

城市土地低碳利用模式的变革及路径

随着城市化进程的加快,城市土地开发利用呈现出膨胀式的扩展,特别是在"高消耗、高排放、高污染"的城市发展模式下,不仅造成社会碳排放量快速增长,而且造成城市土地的"碳汇"功能减弱,致使气候变暖、人居环境日益恶化。论文采用文献分析法和综合归纳法,从城市土地的利用结构、空间布局、利用规模与方向等方面,分析城市土地利用模式所存在的问题,结合城市化发展中的土地资源利用、碳排放、生态环境现状,阐述城市土地低碳利用模式构建的必要性,进而探讨构建城市土地低碳利用模式的路径。认为:应从"减排"和"增汇"两方面着手,培育城市土地低碳利用观念,科学规划城市土地的功能分区,构建生态化土地利用模式,形成"政府主导、市场适应、公众参与"的城市土地低碳利用决策机制与模式,从而变革传统的城市土地利用模式,实现城市建设发展的低碳化。     

城镇化对工业能源消费的门槛效应研究——以长江经济带省份为例

高效能源利用是推动工业发展,进而促使城镇格局演化的重要催化剂,同时城镇化的高速发展对工业能源的消费结构和利用效率提出了进一步的要求,这必将影响到低碳城市建设和环境保护等生态责任目标的实现。选取2003—2012年长江经济带11个省份(直辖市)的相关数据,运用门槛模型对城镇化率、城镇居民人均总收入、能源工业投资、工业总产值、城市人口密度、产业结构等影响工业能源消费的因素进行分析,重点研究城镇化率和工业能源消费的非线性关系和相应的地区差异。结果表明:(1)长江经济带城镇化发展存在着明显的地区差异,上海、浙江等东部地区城镇化发展速度和水平明显优于云南、贵州等中西部地区。云南和贵州2012年的城镇化率远远低于2003年上海、浙江的城镇化率,显示出长江上游和下游之间存在着巨大的发展水平差距。(2)城镇化对工业能源消费存在显著的门槛效应,以城镇化率为门槛变量,存在两个结构变化点,分别为36.9%和48.3%。(3)在第一个门槛点前,城镇化对工业能源消费起抑制作用,前期城镇化的发展导致资源和人口的集聚效应明显,资源的利用效率和配置效率得到提升,从而抑制工业能源消费。在越过第二个门槛点后,城镇化对工业能源消费起正向作用,此时工业的发展和生活消费水准的提升对能源消费提出了更多的要求。最后为促进长江经济带城镇化和工业低碳化的协调发展,提出以下建议:加快长江经济带沿线各省份联动发展,缩小城镇化发展差异;针对城镇化率和工业能源消费的非线性关系,采取相应的措施引导和控制工业能源消费的变化趋势;协调城镇化进程和地区工业能源消耗,促进城镇化的健康发展。     

基于城镇化的居民生活能源消费碳排放门限效应分析

正确认识城镇化发展中碳减排的阶段性特征和应对我国城镇化进程中的碳排放挑战,具有重要的理论参考价值和现实指导意义。现有研究较少关注城镇化发展对居民生活能源消费碳排放的影响,未能将城镇化自身阶段性变化对生活碳排放的影响联系起来。基于此,本文以城镇化率作为门限变量,以生活能源结构、居民消费率、产业结构分别作为解释变量,构建多个不同视角的门限-STIRPAT扩展模型,深入分析城镇化水平处于不同阶段时,居民生活能源消费碳排放所受影响的差异性。研究表明,城市化率分别处于门限值(0.250、0.325和0.457)前后时,居民生活能源消费碳排放所受影响出现了阶段性的变化。当城镇化率低于0.250时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放均呈负向弹性关系,分别为-0.688、-0.570、-0.570;当城市化率低于0.457时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放的负向弹性关系仍然存在,但相关关系明显减弱,能源结构负向弹性关系介于(-0.338,-0.019),居民消费率和产业结构负向弹性关系为-0.251。当城市化率超过0.457时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放已逐步显现或转变为正向弹性关系。基于上述研究结果提出相应建议:区域城镇化发展介于(0.250,0.457]这一阶段的进程中,应把握住能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放影响效应转变之前的阶段,鼓励居民生活消费,但进行节能低碳生活方式的引导,大力发展第三产业,满足居民对生活商品及服务的需求。当区域城镇化提升至0.457以上时,应合理优化能源结构,提高非化石能源比重,通过财政政策等对居民生活消费进行调控和引导,注重第三产业中的科技、金融等技术密集型的行业发展。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Dynamics of Restoration Processes in the Idle Solonetz Ecosystems in the Southern Transural Region

The initial period of idleness in the solonetz ecosystems of the southern Transural Region is characterized by a significant variability of their soil–plant communities, which is determined by natural periodicity and general direction of the process of ecosystem restoration. Selective consumption of salinizing ions by the plants growing on idle land activates the development of desalinization processes.