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1.
The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest under growth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources.

Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using “as-planned” (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event.

Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).  相似文献   

2.
Future air pollution emissions in the year 2030 were estimated for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in central California using a combined system of land use, mobile, off-road, stationary, area, and biogenic emissions models. Four scenarios were developed that use different assumptions about the density of development and level of investment in transportation infrastructure to accommodate the expected doubling of the SJV population in the next 20 years. Scenario 1 reflects current land-use patterns and infrastructure while scenario 2 encouraged compact urban footprints including redevelopment of existing urban centers and investments in transit. Scenario 3 allowed sprawling development in the SJV with reduced population density in existing urban centers and construction of all planned freeways. Scenario 4 followed currently adopted land use and transportation plans for the SJV. The air quality resulting from these urban development scenarios was evaluated using meteorology from a winter stagnation event that occurred on December 15th, 2000 to January 7th 2001. Predicted base-case PM2.5 mass concentrations within the region exceeded 35 μg m?3 over the 22-day episode. Compact growth reduced the PM2.5 concentrations by ~1 μg m?3 relative to the base-case over most of the SJV with the exception of increases (~1 μg m?3) in urban centers driven by increased concentrations of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). Low-density development increased the PM2.5 concentrations by 1–4 μg m?3 over most of the region, with decreases (0.5–2 μg m?3) around urban areas. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were very similar for all development scenarios ranging between 16 and 17.4 μg m?3. Exposure to primary PM components such as EC and OC increased 10–15% for high density development scenarios and decreased by 11–19% for low-density scenarios. Patterns for secondary PM components such as nitrate and ammonium ion were almost exactly reversed, with a 10% increase under low-density development and a 5% decrease under high density development. The increased human exposure to primary pollutants such as EC and OC could be predicted using a simplified analysis of population-weighted primary emissions. Regional planning agencies should develop thresholds of population-weighted primary emissions exposure to guide the development of growth plans. This metric will allow them to actively reduce the potential negative impacts of compact growth while preserving the benefits.  相似文献   

3.
The duration, strength, spatial extent, and chemical makeup of particulate matter (PM) are compared for two winter air quality episodes captured during the California Regional Particulate Air Quality Study (CRPAQS). Each episode, from the beginning of the buildup through dissolution, lasted about 3 weeks. The first episode occurred from December 14, 1999, through January 1, 2000, with peak 24-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations reaching 129 microg/m3. The second episode occurred a year later, from December 18, 2000, through January 8, 2001, with peak 24-hr average PM2.5 concentrations reaching 179 microg/m3. Although similar in duration, each episode exhibited unique characteristics. One significant difference was the episode buildup rate; rapid in 1999, but slow and steady in 2000. The rapid buildup of the first episode resulted in more days with PM2.5 concentrations above the 24-hr federal standard, whereas the slow and steady increase of the second episode produced higher peaks. Spatial extent and progress also differed between the two episodes. The Northern Valley was impacted more during the December 1999 episode, and the Southern Valley during the December 2000 episode. The differences carried over into chemical composition. Ammonium nitrate dominated the PM2.5 mass during the December 1999 episode. The second episode reflected a dichotomy typical to the San Joaquin Valley, with Fresno concentrations dominated by organic and elemental carbon and the rest of the Valley concentrations dominated by ammonium nitrate. Each episode showed a regional as well as a local component. Ammonium nitrate concentrations, which result from more regional-scale secondary formation and mixing of emissions, were fairly uniform among the urban and rural sites. Carbon concentrations were always higher at urban sites than at rural sites, corresponding to the higher emissions density of primary carbon sources in urban areas.  相似文献   

4.
The dynamics of ozone in the San Joaquin Valley of central California are studied by systematic diagnostic runs of the three-dimensional SARMAP Air Quality Model. Air quality in the San Joaquin Valley is the result of a complex combination of local and transported emissions. Simulations show that relatively brisk winds at points of inflow to the Valley produce a strong dependence of ozone in the Valley on upwind conditions. Furthermore, NOx influx from boundaries and local emissions has significantly greater impact on ozone production than ROG influx and emissions.  相似文献   

5.
Quantitative information from the 1995 Integrated Monitoring Study (IMS95) is used to develop a conceptual model, which describes the chemical characteristics and the physical processes responsible for the accumulation of PM in the San Joaquin Valley of California. One significant finding of the conceptual model is the sensitivity of ammonium nitrate (46% of winter PM2.5) and nitric acid to oxidants, which may be VOC-sensitive rather than NOx-sensitive. Key gaps in current knowledge are identified using the conceptual model, e.g., the relative sensitivity of winter oxidants to VOC and NOx, mechanistic details of secondary organic aerosol formation, mechanisms of dispersion under calm conditions, and the importance of dry deposition. Some recommendations are also provided for the formulation of air quality models suitable to address the accumulation of PM in the San Joaquin Valley.  相似文献   

6.
A comprehensive air quality modeling project was carried out to simulate regional source contributions to secondary and total (=primary + secondary) airborne particle concentrations in California's Central Valley. A three-week stagnation episode lasting from December 15, 2000 to January 7, 2001, was chosen for study using the air quality and meteorological data collected during the California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality Study (CRPAQS). The UCD/CIT mechanistic air quality model was used with explicit decomposition of the gas phase reaction chemistry to track source contributions to secondary PM. Inert artificial tracers were used with an internal mixture representation to track source contributions to primary PM. Both primary and secondary source apportionment calculations were performed for 15 size fractions ranging from 0.01 to 10 μm particle diameters. Primary and secondary source contributions were resolved for fugitive dust, road dust, diesel engines, catalyst equipped gasoline engines, non-catalyst equipped gasoline engines, wood burning, food cooking, high sulfur fuel combustion, and other anthropogenic sources.Diesel engines were identified as the largest source of secondary nitrate in central California during the study episode, accounting for approximately 40% of the total PM2.5 nitrate. Catalyst equipped gasoline engines were also significant, contributing approximately 20% of the total secondary PM2.5 nitrate. Agricultural sources were the dominant source of secondary ammonium ion. Sharp gradients of PM concentrations were predicted around major urban areas. The relative source contributions to PM2.5 from each source category in urban areas differ from those in rural areas, due to the dominance of primary OC in urban locations and secondary nitrate in the rural areas. The source contributions to ultra-fine particle mass PM0.1 also show clear urban/rural differences. Wood smoke was found to be the major source of PM0.1 in urban areas while motor vehicle sources were the major contributor of PM0.1 in rural areas, reflecting the influence from two major highways that transect the Valley.  相似文献   

7.
ABSTRACT

The 1995 Integrated Monitoring Study (IMS95) is part of the Phase 1 planning efforts for the California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality Study. Thus, the overall objectives of IMS95 are to (1) fill information gaps needed for planning an effective field program later this decade; (2) develop an improved conceptual model for pollution buildup (PM10, PM2.5, and aerosol precursors) in the San Joaquin Valley; (3) develop a uniform air quality, meteorological, and emissions database that can be used to perform initial evaluations of aerosol and fog air quality models; and (4) provide early products that can be used to help with the development of State Implementation Plans for PM10. Consideration of the new particulate matter standards were also included in the planning and design of IMS95, although they were proposed standards when IMS95 was in the planning process.  相似文献   

8.
The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in California has one of the most severe particulate air quality problems in the United States during the winter season. In the current study, measurements of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), fine particles (PM18), and ultrafine particles (PM0.1) made during the period December 16, 2000-February 3, 2001, at six locations near or within the SJV are discussed: Bodega Bay, Davis, Sacramento, Modesto, Bakersfield, and Sequoia National Park. Airborne PM1.8 concentrations at the most heavily polluted site (Bakersfield) increased from 20 to 172 microg/m3 during the period December 16, 2000-January 7, 2001. The majority of the fine particle mass was ammonium nitrate driven by an excess of gas-phase ammonia. Peak PM0.1 concentrations (8-12 hr average) were approximately 2.4 microg/m3 measured at night in Sacramento and Bakersfield. Ultrafine particle concentrations were distinctly diurnal, with daytime concentrations approximately 50% lower than nighttime concentrations. PMO.1 concentrations did not accumulate during the multiweek stagnation period; rather, PMO.1 mass decreased at Bakersfield as PM1.8 mass was increasing. The majority of the ultrafine particle mass was associated with carbonaceous material. The high concentrations of ultrafine particles in the SJV pose a potential serious public health threat that should be addressed.  相似文献   

9.
Air quality monitoring was conducted at a rural site with a tower in the middle of California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and at elevated sites in the foothills and mountains surrounding the SJV for the California Regional PM10/ PM2.5 Air Quality Study. Measurements at the surface and n a tower at 90 m were collected in Angiola, CA, from December 2000 through February 2001 and included hourly black carbon (BC), particle counts from optical particle counters, nitric oxide, ozone, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and direction. Boundary site measurements were made primarily using 24-hr integrated particulate matter (PM) samples. These measurements were used to understand the vertical variations of PM and PM precursors, the effect of stratification in the winter on concentrations and chemistry aloft and at the surface, and the impact of aloft-versus-surface transport on PM concentrations. Vertical variations of concentrations differed among individual species. The stratification may be important to atmospheric chemistry processes, particularly nighttime nitrate formation aloft, because NO2 appeared to be oxidized by ozone in the stratified aloft layer. Additionally, increases in accumulation-mode particle concentrations in the aloft layer during a fine PM (PM2.5) episode corresponded with increases in aloft nitrate, demonstrating the likelihood of an aloft nighttime nitrate formation mechanism. Evidence of local transport at the surface and regional transport aloft was found; transport processes also varied among the species. The distribution of BC appeared to be regional, and BC was often uniformly mixed vertically. Overall, the combination of time-resolved tower and surface measurements provided important insight into PM stratification, formation, and transport.  相似文献   

10.
Air quality data collected in the California Regional PM10/ PM(2.5) Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) are analyzed to qualitatively assess the processes affecting secondary aerosol formation in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). This region experiences some of the highest fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) mass concentrations in California (< or = 188 microg/m3 24-hr average), and secondary aerosol components (as a group) frequently constitute over half of the fine aerosol mass in winter. The analyses are based on 15 days of high-frequency filter and canister measurements and several months of wintertime continuous gas and aerosol measurements. The phase-partitioning of nitrogen oxide (NO(x))-related nitrogen species and carbonaceous species shows that concentrations of gaseous precursor species are far more abundant than measured secondary aerosol nitrate or estimated secondary organic aerosols. Comparisons of ammonia and nitric acid concentrations indicate that ammonium nitrate formation is limited by the availability of nitric acid rather than ammonia. Time-resolved aerosol nitrate data collected at the surface and on a 90-m tower suggest that both the daytime and nighttime nitric acid formation pathways are active, and entrainment of aerosol nitrate formed aloft at night may explain the spatial homogeneity of nitrate in the SJV. NO(x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions plus background O3 levels are expected to determine NO(x) oxidation and nitric acid production rates, which currently control the ammonium nitrate levels in the SJV. Secondary organic aerosol formation is significant in winter, especially in the Fresno urban area. Formation of secondary organic aerosol is more likely limited by the rate of VOC oxidation than the availability of VOC precursors in winter.  相似文献   

11.
Data from the 1990 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/Atmospheric Utility Signatures, Predictions, and Experiments (SJVAQS/AUSPEX) field program in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suggest that both urban and rural areas would have difficulty meeting an 8-hr average O3 standard of 80 ppb. A conceptual model of O3 formation and accumulation in the SJV is formulated based on the chemical, meteorological, and tracer data from SJVAQS/AUSPEX. Two major phenomena appear to lead to high O3 concentrations in the SJV: (1) transport of O3 and precursors from upwind areas (primarily the San Francisco Bay Area, but also the Sacramento Valley) into the SJV, affecting the northern part of the valley, and (2) emissions of precursors, mixing, transport (including long-range transport), and atmospheric reactions within the SJV responsible for regional and urban-scale (e.g., down-wind of Fresno and Bakersfield) distributions of O3. Using this conceptual model, we then conduct a critical evaluation of the meteorological model and air quality model. Areas of model improvements and data needed to understand and properly simulate O3 formation in the SJV are highlighted.  相似文献   

12.
The SARMAP air quality model, enhanced with aerosol modeling capability, and its associated components were developed to understand causes of ozone (O3) and particulate matter exceedances in the San Joaquin Valley of California. In order for this modeling system to gain increasing acceptance and use in guiding air quality management, it is important to assess how transportable this modeling system is across geographic domains. We describe the first application of the modeling system outside the "home" domain for which it was developed and evaluated. We have chosen the August 27-28, 1987, intensive monitoring period of the Southern California Air Quality Study to evaluate the performance of the modeling system and to assess its sensitivity to emission control options. The predicted surface concentrations of O3 and other gas-phase species were spatially and temporally correlated with measured data. The fractional normalized absolute error was 0.32 to 0.36 for O3, and somewhat larger for other species. The fractional normalized bias for O3 on August 27 and 28, 1987, was 0.02 to 0.04. The simulated PM2.5 mass and constituent species concentrations reproduced the magnitude and variability of the observed daytime concentrations at most locations; however, nighttime PM2.5 concentrations were overpredicted by the model. The model's response to emission control options was consistent with other models of the same genre.  相似文献   

13.
14.
Abstract

Air quality monitoring was conducted at a rural site with a tower in the middle of California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and at elevated sites in the foothills and mountains surrounding the SJV for the California Regional PM10/M2.5 Air Quality Study. Measurements at the surface and on a tower at 90 m were collected in Angiola, CA, from ecember 2000 through February 2001 and included hourly black carbon (BC), particle counts from optical particle counters, nitric oxide, ozone, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and direction. Boundary site measurements were made primarily using 24-hr integrated particulate matter (PM) samples. These measurements were used to understand the vertical variations of PM and PM precursors, the effect of stratification in the winter on concentrations and chemistry aloft and at the surface, and the impact of aloft-versus-surface transport on PM concentrations. Vertical variations of concentrations differed among individual species. The stratification may be important to atmospheric chemistry processes, particularly nighttime nitrate formation aloft, because NO2 appeared to be oxidized by ozone in the stratified aloft layer. Additionally, increases in accumulation-mode particle concentrations in the aloft layer during a fine PM (PM2.5) episode corresponded with increases in aloft nitrate, demonstrating the likelihood of an aloft nighttime nitrate formation mechanism. Evidence of local transport at the surface and regional transport aloft was found; transport processes also varied among the species. The distribution of BC appeared to be regional, and BC was often uniformly mixed vertically. Overall, the combination of time-resolved tower and surface measurements provided important insight into PM stratification, formation, and transport.  相似文献   

15.
Data analysis and modeling were performed to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of wintertime transport and dispersion processes and the impact of these processes on particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the California San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Radar wind profiler (RWP) and radio acoustic sounding system (RASS) data collected from 18 sites throughout Central California were used to estimate hourly mixing heights for a 3-month period and to create case studies of high-resolution diagnostic wind fields, which were used for trajectory and dispersion analyses. Data analyses show that PM episodes were characterized by an upper-level ridge of high pressure that generally produced light winds through the entire depth of the atmospheric boundary layer and low mixing heights compared with nonepisode days. Peak daytime mixing heights during episodes were -400 m above ground level (agl) compared with -800 m agl during nonepisodes. These episode/nonepisode differences were observed throughout the SJV. Dispersion modeling indicates that the range of influence of primary PM emitted in major population centers within the SJV ranged from -15 to 50 km. Trajectory analyses revealed that little intrabasin pollutant transport occurred among major population centers in the SJV; however, interbasin transport from the northern SJV and Sacramento regions into the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) was often observed. In addition, this analysis demonstrates the usefulness of integrating RWP/RASS measurements into data analyses and modeling to improve the understanding of meteorological processes that impact pollution, such as aloft transport and boundary layer evolution.  相似文献   

16.
The sensitivity of the CHIMERE model to emission reduction scenarios on particulate matter PM2.5 and ozone (O3) in Northern Italy is studied. The emissions of NOx, PM2.5 SO2, VOC or NH3 were reduced by 50% for different source sectors for the Lombardy region, together with 5 additional scenarios to estimate the effect of local measures on improving the air quality for the Po valley area. Firstly, we evaluate the model performance by comparing calculated surface aerosol concentrations for the standard case (no emission reductions) with observations for January and June 2005. Calculated monthly mean PM10 concentrations are in general underestimated. For June, modelled PM10 concentrations slightly overestimate the measurements. Calculated monthly mean SO4, NO3?, NH4+ concentrations are in good agreement with the observations for January and June. Secondly, the model sensitivity of emission reduction scenarios on PM2.5 and O3 calculated concentrations for the Po valley area is evaluated. The most effective scenarios to abate PM2.5 concentration are based on the SNAP2 (non-industrial combustion plants) and SNAP7 (road traffic) sectors, for which the NOx and PM2.5 emissions are reduced by 50%. The number of days that the 2015 PM2.5 limit value of 25 μg m?3 in Milan is exceeded by reducing primary PM2.5 and NOx emissions for SNAP2 and 7 by 50%, does not change in January when compared to the standard case for the Milan area. It appears that 40% of the PM2.5 concentration in the greater Milan area is caused by the emissions surrounding the Lombardy region and from the model boundary conditions.This study also showed that a more effective pollutant reduction (emissions) per ton of pollutant reduced (concentrations) for the greater Milan area is obtained by reducing the primary PM2.5 emissions for SNAP7 by 50%. The most effective scenario on PM2.5 decrease for which precursor emissions are reduced is achieved by reducing SO2 emissions by 50% for SNAP7.Our study showed that during summer time, the largest reductions in O3 concentrations are achieved for SNAP7 emission reductions, when volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are reduced by 50%.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

Data from the 1990 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/ Atmospheric Utility Signatures, Predictions, and Experiments (SJVAQS/AUSPEX) field program in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suggest that both urban and rural areas would have difficulty meeting an 8-hr average O3 standard of 80 ppb. A conceptual model of O3 formation and accumulation in the SJV is formulated based on the chemical, meteorological, and tracer data from SJVAQS/ AUSPEX. Two major phenomena appear to lead to high O3 concentrations in the SJV: (1) transport of O3 and precursors from upwind areas (primarily the San Francisco Bay Area, but also the Sacramento Valley) into the SJV, affecting the northern part of the valley, and (2) emissions of precursors, mixing, transport (including long-range transport), and atmospheric reactions within the SJV responsible for regional and urban-scale (e.g., downwind of Fresno and Bakersfield) distributions of O3. Using this conceptual model, we then conduct a critical evaluation of the meteorological model and air quality model. Areas of model improvements and data needed to understand and properly simulate O3 formation in the SJV are highlighted.  相似文献   

18.
Ambient PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) in the northwestern United States and Alaska is dominated by carbonaceous compounds associated with wood burning and transportation sources. PM2.5 source characterization studies analyzing recent PM2.5 speciation data have not been previously reported for these areas. In this study, ambient PM2.5 speciation samples collected at two monitoring sites located in the northwestern area, Olympic Peninsula, WA, and Portland, OR, and one monitoring site located in Anchorage, AK, were characterized through source apportionments. Gasoline vehicle, secondary sulfate, and wood smoke were the largest sources of PM2.5 collected at the Anchorage, Olympic, and Portland monitoring sites, respectively. Secondary sulfates showed an April peak at Anchorage and a November peak at Portland that are likely related to the increased photochemical reaction and long-range transport in Anchorage and meteorological stagnation in Portland. Secondary nitrate at the Olympic site showed a weak summer high peak that could be caused by seasonal tourism in the national park. Backward trajectories suggested that the elevated aged sea salt concentrations at the Portland monitoring site could be regional transport of sea salt that passed through other contaminated air sheds along the coast. Oil combustion emissions that might originate from ships and ferries were observed at the Olympic monitoring site.  相似文献   

19.
20.
Particle light scattering (Bsp) from nephelometers and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass determined by filter samplers are compared for summer and winter at 35 locations in and around California's San Joaquin Valley from December 2, 1999 to February 3, 2001. The relationship is described using particle mass scattering efficiency (sigmasp) derived from linear regression of Bsp on PM2.5 that can be applied to estimated PM2.5 from nephelometer data within the 24-hr filter sampling periods and between the every-6th-day sampling frequency. An average of sigmaSp = 4.9 m2/g was found for all of the sites and seasons; however, sigmasp averaged by site type and season provided better PM2.5 estimates. On average, the sigmasp was lower in summer than winter, consistent with lower relative humidities, lower fractions of hygroscopic ammonium nitrate, and higher contributions from fugitive dust. Winter average sigmasp were similar at non-source-dominated sites, ranging from 4.8 m2/g to 5.9 m2/g. The sigmasp was 2.3 m2/g at the roadside, 3.7 m2/g at a dairy farm, and 4.1 m2/g in the Kern County oilfields. Comparison of Bsp from nephelometers with and without a PM2.5 inlet at the Fresno Supersite showed that coarse particles contributed minor amounts to light scattering. This was confirmed by poorer correlations between Bsp and coarse particulate matter measured during a fall sampling period.  相似文献   

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