Effectiveness of protected areas in the Colombian Andes: deforestation, fire and land-use changes

Protected areas (PAs) are one of the most common conservation strategies to halt biodiversity loss. However, little is known about their current effectiveness and how they could behave under projected scenarios of change, especially in the mountain ecosystems of the Andean region. In this study, we assess the role of protected areas against deforestation and fire incidence in the Colombian Andes and how variables associated with biophysical and context drivers such as the size, year of creation and geographic location of the PAs affect their effectiveness. For the long-term, we have addressed the question of how effective these areas will be under three different scenarios of change for the period between 2020 and 2050, including a reference scenario and two scenarios of increasing pastureland and croplands. The results obtained indicated that both deforestation and fire levels were significantly lower inside protected areas than outside their borders. Concerning variables affecting deforestation and fire, only the type of ecosystem affected these processes in this study. The magnitude of forest loss was different between the analysed scenarios and depended on the location of the PAs. The PAs located in the Western Mountain Range presented the largest values of deforestation but the lowest number of fire incidences. This finding could be related to the presence of processes other than fire, such as illegal logging or selective extraction. The largest losses are expected in the PAs associated with the Eastern and Central mountain ranges, whereas the Western Mountain range will have the lowest loss. We conclude that although the Andes Mountains are a highly transformed and dynamic region, the current PAs have been effective barriers for deforestation and fire. However, the creation of new areas and the maintenance of the current PAs should take into account the interaction with the surrounding population, especially in those areas that are more sensitive to change.     

Agricultural adjustment,population dynamics and forests redistribution in a subtropical watershed of NW Argentina

Patterns of land-use and land-cover change are usually grouped into one of two categories defined by the dominant trend: (1) deforestation resulting from expanding agriculture and (2) forest expansion, usually related to the abandonment of marginal lands. At regional scale, however, both processes can occur simultaneously even in the absence of net change. Given the focus on net change, such redistribution of agricultural and natural and seminatural lands has been generally overlooked. The interaction between agriculture modernization, human demography and complex topographic gradients of northwestern Argentina has resulted in processes of both forest recovery and deforestation, thus providing the opportunity to analyze patterns and driving forces of land-cover redistribution. We analyzed 20 years (1986–2006) of land-cover change in a subtropical watershed in relation to topographic and demographic variables. Although net forest change represented <1 %, forests redistribution affected 7 % of forest lands. There was a consistent geographic segregation of deforestation and forest recovery, with forests expanding over steep highlands and agriculture expanding over lowland irrigated areas. Population trends were not associated to forest expansion in lowlands but they explained 32 % of forest recovery in highlands. Highland forest expansion and lowland deforestation, respectively, imply conservation opportunities for humid montane forests and the environmental services they provide (e.g., watershed conservation) and threats for the conservation of dry forests and its biodiversity. Our study exemplifies the importance of land-use redistribution (rather than net change) with relevant environmental consequences at regional scale.     

National and regional determinants of tropical deforestation in Colombia

Global tropical deforestation continues to occur at high rates despite political attention. National-level forest baselines are being established all over the world to guide the implementation of several policy mechanisms. However, identifying the direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and understanding the complexity of their interlinkages are often difficult. We first analyzed deforestation between 1990 and 2005 at the national level and found an annual deforestation rate of 0.62 %. Next, we performed separate analyses for four natural regions in Colombia and found annual deforestation rates between 0.42 and 1.92 %. Using general linear models, we identified several direct causes and underlying factors influencing deforestation at the national level: rural population density, cattle, protected areas, and slope. Significant differences in deforestation rates and causes were found across regions. In the Caribbean region, drivers of loss are urban population, unsatisfied basic needs, slope, and precipitation and four land use variables (illicit crops, pastures, cattle, and fires). In the Orinoco region, crops are the main driver of forest loss, and in the Amazonian region, deforestation is primarily due to fires related to the colonization front. Policy mechanisms will have to take into account regional patterns to successfully balance development and forest preservation in Colombia.     

Increasing tree cover while losing diverse natural forests in tropical Hainan,China

To protect biodiversity and improve environmental conditions, China has invested billions of dollars in reforestation and payments for ecosystem service programs. Here, we examine the Sloping Land Conversion Program, the largest such program in the world and found that after 13 years of implementation at our study site, it has had negative impacts on natural tropical forests. GIS and remote sensing techniques revealed that both natural forests and natural shrub and grasslands were replaced by non-native monocultural plantations on Hainan Island, China, a key tropical biodiversity hotspot. Under current Chinese policy, these plantations are classified simply as “forests”, with the assumption that they are equivalent to natural forests. This lack of a distinction in forest quality has led to substantial deforestation and plantation expansion, including encroachment into protected areas on Hainan. Additional social and economic drivers of these changes were identified by examining the participants in this program and their actions. Without a new ecologically based definition of forests and new goals for reforestation, such programs designed to improve ecosystem services, and forest quality may actually threaten remaining natural forests and other vegetation types in Hainan and in other areas of mainland China.     

Proximate causes of deforestation in the Bolivian lowlands: an analysis of spatial dynamics

Forests in lowland Bolivia suffer from severe deforestation caused by different types of agents and land use activities. We identify three major proximate causes of deforestation. The largest share of deforestation is attributable to the expansion of mechanized agriculture, followed by cattle ranching and small-scale agriculture. We utilize a spatially explicit multinomial logit model to analyze the determinants of each of these proximate causes of deforestation between 1992 and 2004. We substantiate the quantitative insights with a qualitative analysis of historical processes that have shaped land use patterns in the Bolivian lowlands to date. Our results suggest that the expansion of mechanized agriculture occurs mainly in response to good access to export markets, fertile soil, and intermediate rainfall conditions. Increases in small-scale agriculture are mainly associated with a humid climate, fertile soil, and proximity to local markets. Forest conversion into pastures for cattle ranching occurs mostly irrespective of environmental determinants and can mainly be explained by access to local markets. Land use restrictions, such as protected areas, seem to prevent the expansion of mechanized agriculture but have little impact on the expansion of small-scale agriculture and cattle ranching. The analysis of future deforestation trends reveals possible hotspots of future expansion for each proximate cause and specifically highlights the possible opening of new frontiers for deforestation due to mechanized agriculture. Whereas the quantitative analysis effectively elucidates the spatial patterns of recent agricultural expansion, the interpretation of long-term historic drivers reveals that the timing and quantity of forest conversion are often triggered by political interventions and historical legacies.     

Land cover changes in the Lachuá region,Guatemala: patterns,proximate causes,and underlying driving forces over the last 50 years

Identifying the patterns of land cover change (LCC) and their main proximate causes and underlying driving forces in tropical rainforests is an urgent task for designing adequate management and conservation policies. The Lachuá region maintains the largest lowland rainforest remnant in Guatemala, but it has been highly deforested and fragmented during the last decades. This is the first paper to describe the patterns of LCC and the associated political and socioeconomic factors in the region over the last 50 years. We estimated spatial and temporal variations in LCC from a random sample of 24 1-km² landscape plots during three time periods (1962–1987, 1987–2006, and 2006–2011) and evaluated how they were related to some important proximate causes and underlying driving forces. During the study period, 55 % of forest cover disappeared, at an annual rate of 1.6 %. The deforestation rate increased from 0.6 % (during the first study period) to 2.8 % (last period), but there was very high spatial variation. Landscape plots located outside conservation areas and close to roads lost between 80 and 100 % of forest cover, whereas the forest cover in landscapes located within protected areas remained intact during the study period. The establishment of new human settlements, roads, and annual crops was the main proximate cause during the first period, but during the second and third periods, open areas were mainly created to establish cattle pastures. Because ~75 % of forest cover has disappeared outside the protected areas, the conservation of this biodiversity hot spot will depend on the expansion of protected areas, and the promotion of forest regrowth and alternative biodiversity-friendly land uses in the landscape matrix.     

Land cover change and abrupt environmental impacts on Javan volcanoes, Indonesia: a long-term perspective on recent events

Based on a presentation of the spectacularly abrupt environmental and societal processes occurring on Java since the 1990s, and using that as an analogue to compare their consequences with the known environmental history of the island, we unravel the relative contributions of natural and human impacts in shaping the environment of Java. Our work is based on remote sensing, Geographical Information System analysis, field-based observations and measurements of responses to abrupt land cover changes in the last 10 years. Ecological disturbance has been endemic to the long-term history of Java, but montane forests on volcanoes have since ca. 1990 become the last frontier of colonisation and are for the first time rapidly receding. We reveal how human disturbance of natural ecosystems, today as in the past, tends to be the greatest where resistance is the least. This appears true within the regional setting of Southeast Asia, where Javan forests since the last glaciation have constituted a biogeographical ecotone with a limited natural ability to regenerate after some imbalance. It is equally true at the scale of single events where humans will turn a natural disturbance to their own advantage. Overall, it remains difficult to deconvolve the signals of spontaneous human impacts and of localised natural events such as volcanic activity, El Niño-related forest fires or longer climatic anomalies because humans are opportunistic in their attitudes to natural variability and so the two are often inextricably linked. The clearest impact on land cover and land degradation comes from the history of state-organised deforestation, whether colonial or indigenous, because its impact has been systematic, pervasive and regionally consistent. Javan environments have shown astonishing signs of resilience under the abrupt, cumulative impacts that have been inflicted over the last four centuries in successive iterations, possibly because the high-energy tropical and volcanic environment is a system in which sediment turnover is naturally rapid and where past scars of land degradation either heal rapidly or are soon destroyed by younger events. However, the volcanoes are the island’s keystone reservoirs of water, sediment and biodiversity and command the geomorphic metabolism of the lowlands. By removing forests from increasingly crowded mountain slopes, Javanese society is following a trajectory in which new nonlinear responses to environmental hazards and change may limit our capacity to anticipate and contain environmental risk to human life and property.     

The recovery of the lower montane cloud forest in the Mucujún watershed, Mérida, Venezuela

High deforestation rates in tropical countries continue to reduce forest cover and thereby habitat quantity and quality. However, in some places the forest is recovering and expanding thus offsetting the biodiversity and ecosystem service losses. In order to characterize the forest recovery, land use and land cover (LUC) changes were analyzed using aerial photographs, taken between 1952 and 2009, of a peri-urban watershed in the Andes region of Venezuela. The qualities of the changes were assessed using landscape indices and hemeroby indicators. In that period, the forest cover increased about 18 %, mainly due to abandoned pastures on steep slopes. At the same time, the urban area expanded about 4 % on valley bottoms, while pastures and crop fields were reduced about 20 %. The results also showed that forest patches were aggregating, whereas pastures were fragmenting. A reduction in direct human impacts on forests growing on abandoned pastures resulted in a slight recovery of the lower montane cloud forest structure and plant composition. But non-native species were found in all LUC categories. During the study period, we documented not only forest recovery, but also urban area growth, intensified land use and invasions by non-native species all of which could partially counterbalance the positives of forest recovery.     

Role of remote sensing and community forestry to manage forests for the effective implementation of REDD+ mechanism: a case study on Cambodia

In this study, we have shown the importance of remote sensing applications and community forestry for forest management, discussed as a case study on Cambodian forest management. Curbing deforestation is necessary for the effective implementation of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forests Degradation (REDD+) mechanism and management of forest resources to support sustainable forest management plans. The updated information of the forest cover and forest biomass using advanced remote sensing techniques can be useful for selecting the suitable sites for planned thinning, reforestation, community forestry, and concession land, which eventually will help in controlling the deforestation in Cambodia. To overcome the limitations of remote sensing, an integrated approach of remote sensing and community forestry to monitor forests from local to national level has also been discussed.     

Sprawl matters: the evolution of fringe land,natural amenities and disposable income in a Mediterranean urban area

We investigate the relationship between land-use changes (1987–2007) and the spatial distribution of the average declared income of resident population in a southern European metropolitan region (Athens, Greece) as a contribution to the analysis of suburbanization processes in the Mediterranean region. To demonstrate that urban expansion is accompanied with multiple modifications in the use of the surrounding non-urban land, we developed a computational approach based on spatial indexes of landscape configuration and proximity as a result of changes in the local socio-spatial structure. Diversity in the use of land surrounding built-up parcels in the Athens’ metropolitan region increased significantly between 1987 and 2007, reflecting a progressive fragmentation of the exurban landscape. The percentage of forests and (high-quality) natural land surrounding built-up parcels increased from 8.1 to 9.4 % between 1987 and 2007. The reverse pattern was observed for (low-quality) sparsely vegetated areas, declining from 65 to 47 %. Large built-up parcels were surrounded by a higher percentage of natural land than small parcels. The largest increase over time in forest and natural land surrounding built-up parcels was observed in municipalities with high per capita declared income, and the reverse pattern was observed for sparse vegetation. Our results demonstrate that scattered urban expansion determines a polarization in suburban areas with high-quality and low-quality natural amenities. Sprawl increases economic inequality and socio-spatial disparities contributing to a spatially unbalanced distribution of natural amenities with higher consumption of high-quality land.     

Characteristics and drivers of forest cover change in the post-socialist era in Croatia: evidence from a mixed-methods approach

Extensive forests in Croatia represent an important biological and economic resource in Europe. They are characterised by heterogeneity in forest management practices dating back to the socialist planned economy of the pre-1991 era. In this study we investigated the difference in rates of deforestation and reforestation in private- and state-owned forests during the post-socialist period and the causal drivers of change. The selected region of Northern Croatia is characterised by a high percentage of privately owned forests with minimal national monitoring and control. We used a mixed-methods approach which combines remote sensing, statistical modelling and a household-based questionnaire survey to assess the rates of forest cover change and factors influencing those changes. The results show that predominantly privately owned forests in Northern Croatia have recorded a net forest loss of 1.8 % during the 1991–2011 period, while Croatia overall is characterised by a 10 % forest cover increase in predominantly state-owned forests. Main factors influencing forest cover changes in private forests are slope, altitude, education structure, population age and population density. The results also show that the deforestation in private forests is weakening overall, mostly due to the continuation of the de-agrarisation and de-ruralisation processes which began during socialism.     

Indicators of deforestation in the Southern Brazilian Pre-Amazon

In recent years, Amazonian deforestation has become a question of global concern. Deforestation in Amazon is a complex phenomenon in nature and has been related to traditional agriculture expansion. In this work, land use, socioeconomic and conservation indicators, combined with statistical analysis, were used to understand forces associated with patterns of deforestation. This approach was applied in Southern Brazilian Pre-Amazon in Mato Grosso State, which represents an extensive rain forest-savanna ecotone, located in the south border of Amazon biome. Based on data from the last two agricultural censuses (1995/1996–2006), we compared agricultural expansion in this area and Mato Grosso state. Results have shown that 85 % of state deforestation was concentrated in Southern Pre-Amazon and was closely related to increase in number of cattle and pasture area. PCA results pointed that population (92 %), number of cattle (86.5 %), pastures (84.2 %) and tractors (78.4 %) were variables with highest positive correlation to deforestation. It showed that GDP contributes to an individual axis and has a low correlation to deforestation (37.8 %). Conservation units and indigenous reserves also contribute to a single axis and were negatively correlated to temporary crops area. Results revealed a significant reduction in production and commercialization of extractive products in the region, revealing that the main, almost only conservation policy in Mato Grosso remains the creation of Special Areas. We suggest that further studies are necessary to screen development alternatives to simple cutting trees down. It is important to diversify strategies for deforestation control, and development aspects must be more seriously considered to reach a sustainable deforestation control policy.     

THE FOREST–HYDROLOGY–POVERTY NEXUS IN CENTRAL AMERICA: AN HEURISTIC ANALYSIS

A ‘forest–hydrology–poverty nexus’ hypothesis asserts that deforestation in poor upland areas simultaneously threatens biodiversity and increases the incidence of flooding, sedimentation and other damaging hydrological processes. This paper uses rough heuristics to assess the applicability of this hypothesis to two montane forested countries in Central America: Guatemala and Honduras. We do so by using simple rules of thumb to identify watersheds at greater risk of hydrologically significant land use change, using information about land cover, slope, and watershed size. The location of these watersheds is compared to spatial maps of poverty and forests. We find plausible evidence for a forest–biodiversity–poverty connection in Guatemala, and to a lesser extent in Honduras.     

Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

AN Amazon Perspective on the Forest-Climate Connection: Opportunity for Climate Mitigation, Conservation and Development?

Amazonia contains more carbon (C) than a decade of global, human-induced CO₂ emissions (60–80 billion tons). This C is gradually being released to the atmosphere through deforestation. Projected increases in Amazon deforestation associated with investments in road paving and other types of infra-structure may increase these C emissions. An increase of 25–40% in Amazon deforestation due to projected road paving could counterbalance nearly half of the reductions in C emissions that would be achieved if the Kyoto Protocol were implemented. Forecasted emission increases could be curtailed if development strategies aimed at controlling frontier expansion and creating economic alternatives were implemented. Given ancillary benefits and relative low costs, reducing deforestation in Amazonia and other tropical areas could be an attractive option for climate mitigation. Projects that help contain deforestation and reduce frontier expansion can play an important role in climate change mitigation but currently are not allowed as an abatement strategy under the climate regime. Creating incentives for forest conservation and decreased deforestation can be a unique opportunity for both forest conservation and climate mitigation.     

Using multitemporal Landsat TM imagery to establish land use pressure induced trends in forest and woodland cover in sections of the Soutpansberg Mountains of Venda region, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Globally, tropical forests are being perturbed by human activity. Tropical vegetation constitutes some of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks against the build up of greenhouse gases. In this paper, a local-scale case study utilising remote sensing methodology in estimating forest loss is presented, for a section of tropical South Africa’s Soutpansberg Mountains where land use pressure threatens some of the last remaining indigenous forests. Landsat TM images from October 1990, August 2000 and September 2006 were used, together with municipality level demographic data. Hybrid image classification techniques distinguished forest cover on the images, which were classified into vegetation density categories. About 20% of forest and woodland cover was lost in the 16-year analysis period, mainly due to pine and eucalyptus plantation and residential housing expansions. The local-scale key drivers behind the deforestation are examined.     

Understanding deforestation in the southern Yucatán: insights from a sub-regional, multi-temporal analysis

The southern Yucatán has been identified as a deforestation hot spot. Land-change studies document the extent of forest loss at a regional scale, and case studies provide insights into the drivers of deforestation at the household level. Those studies have paid minimal attention to sub-regional analysis, especially to discrete land-management units above the household level. This analysis of upland forest change addresses the range of variation in deforestation among 96 ejidos (communal lands) and the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, the two dominant land-tenure and land-management units in the region. Satellite imagery, census, and land-tenure data are used to establish the extent and location of deforestation patterns, and multivariate techniques are employed to identify biophysical and socioeconomic variables that explain such patterns. Results show that, for the 1984–1993 period, deforestation in the southern Yucatán was not as prevalent as implied by its hot spot designation. Three clusters of deforestation are identified. A logistic regression analysis establishes that size of forest holdings, population growth, and location in the precipitation gradient correlate with ejidos that experienced higher deforestation rates than the rest of the land-tenure units. For the 1993–2000 period, conservation programs and changes in the economic context of this “hollow frontier” contributed to reduce deforestation rates and extent. This analysis illustrates the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of much tropical forest change and caution that it should bring to simple formulations of modeling this change and prescribing policies to control it.     

中国农业发展与环境变迁

我国农业历史悠久,农业人口众多,人类活动尤其是农业发展对地理环境的影响极大。我国地理环境在时间与空间上都有很大差异。我国的环境变迁是自然条件与人类活动相互作用的结果。有些环境变化是“积极的”,如土地开发与绿洲建设、水利与灌溉、作物与家畜驯化、平原森林的营造等等,但更多环境变化是“消极的”,如旱灾、洪涝灾害、流沙、盐渍化、森林破坏、动物灭绝、土壤侵蚀、山地灾害等等。当地理环境利用得当时,积极的环境变化将占主导;但若利用不当或利用过度,消极的环境变化将最终占优势。     

Population dynamics,rural livelihoods and environmental degradation: some experiences from Tanzania

Population growth and environmental degradation are closely linked. Increasing population has in many rural areas of Tanzania contributed to changes in land use/cover patterns, land fragmentation and livelihood insecurity. Increasing demand for food, energy and other environmental services has contributed to expansion of agriculture, including marginal areas, and deforestation often leading to environmental degradation. Increased reliance on natural resources for rural livelihoods, subsistence nature of the agricultural sector and limited economic opportunities in rural areas are among the factors leading to rural–rural and rural–urban migrations searching for better livelihood opportunities. The high urban demand for food and biomass energy from rural areas has also contributed to rural deforestation and overall environmental degradation. This paper addresses the linkages between population and environmental degradation in Tanzania. It argues that effective implementation of development and resources management policies can lead to environmental sustainability even with growing populations. It provides evidence from successful land management interventions such as HADO, HASHI and SECAP, which support the argument that with effective implementation of resource management initiatives even larger populations can be supported by the available resources. Such successful interventions ought to be emulated elsewhere with similar environmental problems.     

Do protected areas really work to conserve species? A case study of three vulnerable woody species in the Sudanian zone of Burkina Faso

Natural vegetation and native plant species contribute significantly to the daily needs of local people especially in developing countries. This exerts a high pressure on local species and jeopardizes the conservation of the most vulnerable plants. In Burkina Faso, conservation measures, such as the creation of protected forests, have been taken to safeguard the remaining indigenous vegetation. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these protected areas in conserving biodiversity. This study assessed and compared the population structures and regeneration potential of three vulnerable woody species—Diospyros mespiliformis Hochst., Prosopis africana (Guill. & Perr.) Taub. and Sterculia setigera Del.—in protected and unprotected areas in the Sudanian zone of Burkina Faso. The population structure and regeneration pattern of each species were compared between the North and South Sudanian sectors of Burkina Faso. The populations of all three species were unstable in both protected and unprotected areas. D. mespiliformis and P. africana displayed relatively good regeneration while P. africana lacked regeneration in unprotected areas. Regeneration was poor for S. setigera, regardless of protection status. The results suggest that the populations of the targeted species are unstable, regardless of the protection status of the area considered. This is probably due to the high anthropogenic pressure facing natural resources and raises serious concerns about the effectiveness of the protected areas in conserving biodiversity. Urgent measures are needed to ensure effective and efficient management and conservation of biodiversity in the protected areas of Burkina Faso.