我国海上溢油应急反应机制建设迫在眉睫

2003年11月,交通部为了提高我国船舶溢油污染事故应急反应能力,加强水域环境保护工作,推动我国建立船舶油污损害赔偿基金机制工作的进展,专门在上海举办了上海国际海事论坛.     

基于变异系数-云物元模型的船舶进出港航路设计

为进一步保障出港船舶及在近岸航路航行船舶的通航安全，应对进出港船舶航路的设计方案进行风险评估。鉴于出港航路和近岸航路交叉水域通航安全的特殊性，以该水域内船舶碰撞风险为研究背景，建立了进出港航路与近岸航路交叉水域船舶碰撞风险指标体系。采用变异系数法对评价指标进行赋值，克服了主观赋权法的局限性，提高了评估结果的可信度。同时充分利用云模型理论和物元可拓理论的优点，结合变异系数法构建变异系数-云物元模型对出港船舶与近岸航路船舶交通流冲突水域的船舶碰撞风险进行评估。并以东营港出港航路和近岸航路交叉水域为例，对到达冲突水域前不同备选航路方案进行了安全评价。结果表明，该评价模型正确，实用性强，可用于评价进出港航路设计方案的优选。     

船舶溢油应急反应人的可靠性分析研究

为减小船舶溢油事故应急反应人员失误概率,提升应急处置效果,在对应急人员可靠性主要影响因素识别的基础上,利用模糊贝叶斯网络(BN)建立船舶溢油应急人的可靠性分析(HRA)模型,将应急反应流程抽象为可进行概率推算的BN,实现单个应急任务和全过程人的可靠性的量化评估,并依据该模型对一起船舶溢油事故进行实例研究。结果表明,首先模糊集值专家评估较好地解决应急人员可靠性情境依赖性强,难以量化评估的问题;其次,BN卓越的概率推理性能实现由单个应急任务向全过程人的可靠性的推算;最后得到应急反应人的可靠性主要取决于关键应急任务的完成情况和相关情境因素的影响。     

基于云模型的海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估方法

为更好地解决海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估过程中的不确定性问题，提出1种基于区间二型模糊层次分析法的云模型综合评估方法。针对评估体系的局部性，借鉴PPRR应急管理过程理论，对影响船舶溢油应急管理能力的因素进行分级和分类，构建全局评估指标体系；分别运用区间二型模糊层次分析法和逆向云发生器确定各指标权重和云模型参数；通过浮动云和综合云算法获得最终评估结果。结果表明:将5个评估等级和评估结果进行仿真得出评估云的“云滴”图可显示出评估结果的能力等级以及评估结果的可信度和稳定性。计算某海区船舶溢油应急管理能力的评估等级为“较好”，即管辖该海区的海事管理部门能较好地解决海上船舶溢油突发事故，验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

自航式海上溢油回收装置研究

对当前国内外常用的海上溢油回收装置进行了总结和分析,传统的海上溢油回收装置在开放海域大型溢油事故的处理中有着较好的效果,但在处理近岸海域的溢油时,由于受近岸海洋环境因素的影响,其效果不甚理想。提出了一种小型自航式海上溢油回收装置,通过定位信号的引导,能够应用于近岸区域溢油的自动回收。介绍了该装置的主要结构和工作原理,分析了装置的适用性。     

长江干线中下游溢油应急设备点选址优化

为优化长江干线中下游溢油应急设备点选址,建立溢油应急需求水域风险评价体系,采用云模型对其评价,进而构建以加权距离最小为目标的溢油应急设备点选址模型。采用自适应差分进化算法(Adaptive Differential Evolution,ADE)对其求解。将模型应用于九江港的溢油应急设备点选址,最终解算选址于瑞昌港区及彭泽港区,此评估结果与九江港实际规划相符。     

河流溢油事故流域环境风险量化模型研究

为进一步丰富河流溢油事故风险评价技术，分级分区制定溢油流域应急处置方案，通过分析国内外关于河流溢油事故演化与环境风险评价研究现状，对河流溢油事故环境风险量化模型进行构建与优化。以溢油轨迹判断目标流域受溢油污染的可能性，以区域环境敏感性指数(Environmental Sensitivity Index, ESI)衡量环境受溢油污染的严重程度，构建包含5个一级指标及17个二级指标的河流溢油事故流域环境风险评价指标体系，并得到人类利用资源、岸线资源以及生物资源的ESI分级标准和量化模型。基于该模型，选取嫩江某河流段跨越管线进行实例研究，得出流域环境敏感性与风险等级分布，以期给出科学合理的应急决策建议。     

海上溢油风险的数值模型预警

随着我国海洋开发规模的不断扩大,高密度的海上工程作业和进出施工船舶使周围海域面临很大的溢油环境风险。由于海上作业的特殊性,一旦发生溢油事故,必将给沿岸经济和海洋生态环境带来极大的危害。因此加强溢油风险管理,最大限度地预防溢油事故的发生并采取及时有效的防控措施是十分必要的。基于东海大桥风电二期工程,假设施工船舶发生碰撞溢油事故,利用MIKE21模型系统就溢油风险进行分析,介绍溢油模型预测海上溢油的计算过程。     

基于风险与成本的海洋溢油事故应急控制决策

为提高海洋溢油事故应急控制决策的科学性,降低海洋溢油事故所造成的海洋生态环境风险,提出一种基于风险与成本最优的海洋溢油事故应急控制决策方法,识别海洋原油泄漏事件升级过程中的主要变量与时序节点;采用贝叶斯网络构建海洋溢油事故演化模型,评估海洋溢油事故所产生的生态环境风险;在此基础上,引入海面溢油应急处置措施,并考虑不同溢油处置措施的执行成本与效果,构建海洋溢油事故应急控制决策的贝叶斯影响图模型,确定风险控制效果与成本最优的海面溢油事故应急控制策略。结果表明:同时采用海面燃烧和自然恢复方法是进行实际海面溢油处置的最佳方案,可降低海面溢油事故的致灾风险和控制成本。     

可拓综合评价在燃气系统泄漏事故应急救援中的应用

燃气系统发生泄漏,如不能及时有效进行应急救援,极易引发严重的事故后果,因此,准确确定应急响应等级,进行有针对性的救援工作是控制燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性的关键。从众多影响因素中,分析并确定了影响燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性的主要因素,对各因素严重程度进行了等级划分。引入了可拓工程方法,建立了燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性可拓综合评价模型,阐述了评价步骤和方法。当各影响因素分属不同等级时,根据所建模型能综合确定燃气系统泄漏事故后果严重性等级,依此进行事故应急救援分级响应。该方法能够克服人为评判失误,有利于指导有效事故救援,控制事故影响范围。运用该模型对一事故案例进行了计算,计算结果表明此方法用于确定应急救援响应等级是可行的。     

海上生产设施远程监控和管理系统的建设探讨

针对海洋石油行业面临的海上作业设施如何安全有效监控及管理的问题,从实际的安全生产管理需求出发,结合通信网络链路及传输特点,采用先进的远程监控技术和海洋石油应急管理理念,设计开发了海上生产设施远程监控和管理系统平台,并论述了总体框架、软硬件结构及发展趋势。系统已经作为保障安全生产的重要手段应用于海上作业平台及船舶运输,提高了安全生产管理水平,并取得了很好的效果。     

基于CFD的深水钻井溢油事故定量风险评估

针对深水钻井作业过程中的井喷溢油问题,基于计算流体力学(CFD)方法,通过UDF函数给定海流流剖面、波浪入口边界条件和海水静压分布情况,结合标准k-ε方程,采用VOF模型实现对油、气、水三相自由面的追踪,建立了溢油扩散事故数值仿真模型,评估深水条件下溢油扩散危害区域,研究海流流速、溢油量对原油扩散的影响。结果表明,海流流速和溢油量是原油扩散行为和危害区域分布范围的重要影响因素。     

Damage to offshore oil and gas facilities following hurricanes Katrina and Rita: An overview

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the centre of the American petrochemical industry, shutting down eight refineries, hundreds of oil-drilling and production platforms, and many other industrial facilities. Furthermore, it triggered unprecedented numbers of hazardous-materials releases from industrial facilities and storage terminals onshore, as well as from oil and gas production facilities offshore in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). In this paper, we analyse the damage caused by the two hurricanes on the offshore oil and gas industry. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused the largest number of destroyed and damaged platforms and pipelines, and the highest number of mobile offshore drilling units set adrift in the history of GoM operations. Following the hurricanes, changes have been proposed to operating and emergency procedures, maintenance requirements, and design practices including mooring practices for mobile offshore drilling units.     

Microwave-assisted preparation of two-dimensional amphiphilic nanoplate herding surfactants for offshore oil spill treatment

Oil spills are the uncontrolled release of liquid hydrocarbon by ruptured pipelines and tanker hulls, or blowouts and leaks from offshore storage facilities and drilling rigs, either by faulty human behaviors or inevitable natural aging processes. Spills cause disastrous environmental and economic consequences, with the effects of marine habitat damage for lasting decades, necessitating a critical need for efficient oil spill mitigation and leakage treatment. In this study, we develop a two-dimensional (2D) amphiphilic nanoplate as the herding surfactant for retracting spilled oil offshore on the seawater surface with various temperature and saline concentrations. Applying 2D nanoplate herding surfactant causes areas of thin oil slick floating on water to largely shrink and form a thick bulk layer. This transformation lays the foundation for the next-step oil treatment and recovery. Microwave-assisted synthesis method was used to fabricate the surface-modified zirconium phosphate (ZrP) nanoplates as the oil herder, which has an amphiphilic characteristic, containing both hydrophilic and hydrophobic properties. The 2D nanoplate surfactants decrease the air-water surface tension to facilitate the oil herding process efficiently. Using this herding procedure, we propose a biocompatible, high herding efficiency and cost-effective 2D herding surfactant fabrication method and offer a new direction for oil treatment in the offshore process safety field.     

Inherently safer design in offshore oil and gas projects

Like all hazardous installations, inherently safer design (ISD) is one of the key tools in offshore oil and gas projects to minimize risks in offshore facilities. As the life cycle of offshore facilities is relatively short compared with onshore counterparts and there are many projects running every year, the potential is high for raising inherent safety standards and lowering safety risks throughout the offshore industry as old facilities are phased out. This paper gives an overview of offshore facilities and examples of implementation of ISD. Good examples of ISD are numerous. Industry guidance on ISD implementation abound. Yet, the systematic implementation of it in the industry is patchy. There are many reasons for factors which impede the effective, efficient and consistent implementation of ISD in projects. This paper describes some of them and proposes solution to address them. They include (a) the effective integration of ISD into hazard management systems with appropriate language to engage all disciplines in projects, (b) the phasing of resources to enable the project to capture ISD measures which are only available during early phases, (c) application of appropriate ISD goals and ISD performance metrics at various stages and (d) the appropriate use of quantified risk assessment to support ISD.     

Modelling performance variabilities in oil spill response to improve system resilience

The Environmental Defense Centers (EDCs) of Brazil provide response services following oil spill accidents. EDCs near affected areas rapidly organize and execute emergency response activities in order to minimize the environmental and economic impacts of spills. The current research applied ergonomic principles and methods (interviews, direct observation and focus groups) to describe common EDC system operations, and to identify constraints and conflicting procedural practices. Results of ergonomic field studies were modeled and analyzed using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which can show how functional variability in planning, preparedness, execution, resources, economic and human factors affect the quality of emergency response activities. The FRAM analyses provide guidance for improving the resilience of oil spill emergency response systems.     

海上溢油事故双目标应急物资调度模型

为满足海上溢油事故发生后的应急物资需求,最大程度减少事故带来的损失,根据海上溢油应急物资调度的特点,构建基于应急物资需求量和调度时间模糊不确定下应急成本最小和延误时间最少的双目标调度模型。引入三角模糊函数描述应急物资调度中物资需求量和调度时间的不确定性,构建模糊环境下溢油事故点对应急物资应急成本最小和应急延误时间最少的双目标模型,利用遗传算法求解,并通过算例分析证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明,三角模糊数能很好地表征调度中物资需求量和时间的不确定性及模糊属性,确定的调度方案能为海上溢油事故发生时应急物资调度提供决策依据。     

基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

海上平台事故应急演练评估方法研究

针对目前我国海上平台事故应急演练缺乏有效评估体系的现状,结合海上平台事故应急演练典型示例,运用“事故应急指挥系统（ICS）”基本理念,对整个应急演练过程进行系统分析,从人员安全、资产保护、环境保护、企业声誉等4个方面搭建应急演练评估框架。采用层次分析法构建计算模型,合理设置评估指标权重,最终建立了1套具有海洋石油行业特点的应急演练评估指标体系,并选取国内1个海上平台事故应急演练进行了应用分析。研究结果表明:构建的演练评估指标体系及评估方法能较好地应用于海上平台事故应急演练过程,进而在演练评估结果的基础上,实现应急演练的持续改进。     

The oil and gas industry,the competence assessment of Offshore Installation Managers (OIMs) and Control Room Operators (CROs) in emergency response,and the lack of effective assessment of underpinning technical knowledge and understanding

Within the UKCS offshore oil and gas industry there exist key personnel who perform critical roles in an emergency as part of the installation's emergency response team (ERT), two of these personnel are the Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) and the offshore Control Room Operator (CRO). The OIM is responsible for the safety and well-being of all persons onboard and within 500 m of the installation. Should an emergency situation arise, the OIM performs one of the most critical roles in emergency response - management of the response to the emergency to mitigate and make safe the installation to secure a place of safety for persons onboard or organise their safe evacuation. Such emergency response shall also include limiting the loss of hydrocarbons to the environment. The CRO monitors and interprets the output from an installation's Distributed Control System (DCS) and Fire and Gas Panel (FGP), responding to alarms and deviations from steady state. In many instances, an offshore CRO's actions in response to these deviations can determine whether or not the situation deteriorates into a disaster. Should an emergency occur, the CRO will act in accordance with an installation's emergency response procedures and OIM instructions.The persistence of incidents, a number leading to disasters, in the industry highlights the importance of both OIM and CRO competence in controlling emergencies. Both positions require an effective system to assess the competence of job holders. Research at the University of Aberdeen identified potential barriers that can prevent the effective competence assessment of an OIM in emergency response. An extension to this research analyses the two offshore industry standards for competence in emergency response: OPITO 7025 – OIM Controlling Emergencies and OPITO 9004 – Control Room Operator Emergency Response, and associated documentation, applying a critical hermeneutic approach, focusing on the assessment of underpinning knowledge and understanding within the roles. The key findings are that there currently exists no effective means to assess the underpinning technical knowledge and understanding of either OIMs or CROs in emergency response within the offshore industry. Knowledge and, in particular, understanding are poorly defined within the relevant OPITO standards. There exists no validation of evidence collated to support an individual's underpinning knowledge and understanding and no truly independent audit of collated evidence or the process of assessment.The research is important to Duty Holders (see also OSD Installation Operators under UK Offshore Safety Directive Regulations) and employers within the offshore oil and gas industry, organisations associated with the offshore industry, safety engineers and UK Government departments with regard to the effectiveness of competence assessment of appointed OIMs and CROs. It is also significant to risk engineers when considering the probable competence of key emergency response personnel in a given environment at a given point in time. The research is not just applicable to the UKCS offshore industry but also to the global offshore oil and gas industry.