Use of fuzzy logic models for prediction of taste and odor compounds in algal bloom-affected inland water bodies

Mechanistic modeling of how algal species produce metabolites (e.g., taste and odor compounds geosmin and 2-methyl isoborneol (2-MIB)) as a biological response is currently not well understood. However, water managers and water utilities using these reservoirs often need methods for predicting metabolite production, so that appropriate water treatment procedures can be implemented. In this research, a heuristic approach using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was developed to determine the underlying nonlinear and uncertain quantitative relationship between observed cyanobacterial metabolites (2-MIB and geosmin), various algal species, and physical and chemical variables. The model is proposed to be used in conjunction with numerical water quality models that can predict spatial–temporal distribution of flows, velocities, water quality parameters, and algal functional groups. The coupling of the proposed metabolite model with the numerical water quality models would assist various utilities which use mechanistic water quality models to also be able to predict distribution of taste and odor metabolites, especially when monitoring of metabolites is limited. The proposed metabolite model was developed and tested for the Eagle Creek Reservoir in Indiana (USA) using observations over a 3-year period (2008–2010). Results show that the developed models performed well for geosmin (R ²?=?0.83 for all training data and R ²?=?0.78 for validation of all 10 data points in the validation dataset) and reasonably well for the 2-MIB (R ²?=?0.82 for all training data and R ²?=?0.70 for 7 out of 10 data points in the validation dataset).     

基于顺序注射分析技术的总氮在线分析仪

针对环境监测领域,研制了一种基于顺序注射分析技术的总氮在线分析仪。该分析仪以注射泵为分析过程的液体驱动定量单元,以多通道选向阀为流路切换单元,以发光二极管和硅光电管为检测单元。在该分析平台上,含氮化合物在高温高压条件下经过硫酸钾氧化成硝酸根,硝酸根被还原为亚硝酸根后与N-(1-萘基)乙二胺盐酸盐生成偶氮染料,再由光电检测单元测定吸光度值,经计算得到总氮含量。与现有的总氮在线分析技术相比,该分析仪具有检测单元简单、生产成本低、测量精度高、试剂消耗和废液产生量少等优点,适合于环境监测等领域的长时间在线分析。     

A Compartmental Model for Stable Time-Dependent Modeling of Surface Water and Groundwater

Water resource system planners make decisions that guide water management policy. The fundamental tools for assessing management and infrastructure strategies are combined hydro-economic models of river basins (RBHE models). These models have improved the economic efficiency of water use in situations of competition for scarce water resources. In RBHE models, a groundwater model is coupled with surface water models of the various water resources. Today, the groundwater models used in an RBHE model can be of two types: cell models or numerical models. Cell models are easy to use, but they are too simple to realistically describe the geology and hydrology of the area under investigation. Numerical models, in contrast, are closer to the physical behavior of the aquifer. However, the vast quantity of data to be analyzed makes them impractical for many management scenarios. Moreover, the calibrations of these high-resolution models are generally difficult and sensitive to the variation of parameters, especially when boundary conditions are dynamic. This is the case when dynamic river data or dynamic surface lake data are present. In this work, a compartmental cell model is built on the hydrogeology of the aquifer. In this approach, the hydrogeology of the aquifer and the dynamic boundary conditions are treated with separate models. A general mathematical formulation is presented where the calibration stage, the validation stage, and the prediction stage are formulated as a series of sub-model calibrations and solved using a general least squares routine. With this approach, it becomes possible to treat both the water level and the pumping rate in each cell as variables to be predicted. In most of the models, the pumping rates are known and the goals of the computation are to estimate the groundwater level. However, when for political or technical reasons access to some of the wells is difficult, the pumping rates are only partially known. Then, both groundwater levels and pumping rates are variables to be predicted by the groundwater model. A computer program was developed using MATLAB, with a Visual Basic graphical user interface using COM technology to access the advanced mathematical libraries. The approach was implemented with a real case study of the Yarkon–Taninim aquifer in Israel. The results indicate that the method is more stable than the classical approach.     

Multipoint source method in air pollution modelling of cold start emission

The paper presents a new method of air pollution modelling on a micro scale. For estimation of concentration of car exhaust pollutants, each car is treated as an instantaneous moving emission source. This approach enables us to model time and spatial changes of emission, especially during cold and cool start of an engine. These stages of engine work are a source of significant pollution concentration in urban areas. In this work, two models are proposed: one for the estimation of emission after cold start of the engine and another for the prediction of pollutant concentration. The first model (defined for individual exhaust gas pollutants) enables us to calculate the emission as a function of time after the cold or cool start, ambient temperature and average speed of motion. This model uses the HBEFA database. The second mathematical model is developed in order to calculate the pollutant dispersion and concentrations. The finite volume method is applied to discretise the set of partial differential equations describing wind flow and pollutant dispersion in the domain considered. Models presented in this paper can be called short-term models on a small spatial scale. The results of numerical simulation of pollutant emission and dispersion are also presented.     

Geophysical and hydrological data assimilation to monitor water content dynamics in the rocky unsaturated zone

In recent years, geophysics is increasingly used to study the flow and transport processes in the vadose zone. Particularly, when the vadose zone is made up of rocks, it is difficult to install sensors in the subsurface to measure hydrological state variables directly. In these cases, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) represents a useful tool to monitor the hydrodynamics of the infiltration and to estimate hydraulic parameters and state variables, such as hydraulic conductivity and water content. We propose an integrated approach aimed at predicting water content dynamics in calcarenite, a sedimentary carbonatic porous rock. The uncoupled hydrogeophysical approach proposed consists in 4D ERT monitoring conducted during an infiltrometer test under falling head conditions. Capacitance probes were installed to measure water content at different depths to validate the estimations derived from ERT. A numerical procedure, based on a data assimilation technique, was accomplished by combining the model (i.e., Richards’ equation) with the observations in order to provide reliable water content estimations. We have used a new data assimilation method that is easy to implement, based on the ensemble Kalman filter coupled with Brownian bridges. This approach is particularly suitable for strongly non-linear models, such as Richards’ equation, in order to take into account both the model uncertainty and the observation errors. The proposed data assimilation approach was tested for the first time on field data. A reasonable agreement was found between observations and predictions confirming the ability of the integrated approach to predict water content dynamics in the rocky subsoil.     

Grid search: an innovative method for the estimation of the rates of lead exchange between body compartments

This paper describes a new metabolic model for lead in humans and a numerical method to solve the differential equations governing the transfer of lead between body compartments. The model includes 3 compartments-cortical bone, trabecular bone and blood-and accounts for absorption from external sources and release through excreta. Estimation of the lead kinetics parameters was performed using the grid search method. Grid search is a simple procedure that allows the fit of an arbitrary function to data. When applied to data from occupationally exposed populations, the method demonstrated the exposure dependence of the rate of lead uptake and release by the compartments in the model. The results confirm and refine previous observations of the significant decrease of the transfer rate of lead from cortical bone to blood with increasing exposure, as expressed by half-lives of (in years): 6.5 +/- 0.7, 13.6 +/- 1.0 and 47.5 +/- 2.3, in subgroups of low, intermediate and high long-term lead exposure. A similar trend was observed for the transfer rate from trabecular bone, which could be statistically supported for the first time. Reduction by a factor of 7 to 10 in the default values assigned to the fractional removal of lead from cortical bone to plasma in existing metabolic models was also predicted. These results can be used in the review of current metabolic models for lead, which are still based on the assumption of a constant rate of lead removal from bone, independently of the level of exposure.     

Air-quality Prognosis, for the Implementation of Abatement Strategies over Large Urban Areas

State-of-the-art approaches for urban air-quality characterisation have several drawbacks due to apriori assumptions and/or due to inherent limitations of the concept utilised. For the evaluation of abatement scenarios it is either necessary to embark on extensive monitoring campaigns or to consistently apply numerical models for atmospheric dispersion. The 'ENVISOR' methodology applied here is a mixture of the two approaches. It forecasts pollutant concentrations during real episodes and assesses the impact from the construction of a new highway across a large urban domain of 100×100 km2. Data from an extensive monitoring network are used to identify real modelling periods and for validating the modelling simulations. The selected periods are aiming to the assessment of 'annual mean' or 'episodic' conditions. These periods are short-listed according to the abatement scenario under consideration. This approach yields accurate forecasts for the concentration of pollutants after extensive validation tests extended over the whole domain. It is foreseen that the impact from the highway construction will be minimal for photochemical pollution whereas, higher impact will result for inert pollutants due to additional emissions from the highway.     

The determination of carbonyl compounds in air using a robotic sampling preparation system integrated to a gas chromatograph with a nitrogen-phosphorus detector

A totally automated solid phase extraction gas chromatography procedure was developed for the sampling and analysis of carbonyl compounds in air. In this system, two PrepStation modules were used, one for the preparation and elution of 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine silica cartridges, and the other for air sampling. The sample collected by the sampling module was eluted to an autosampler vial in the PrepStation module and then transferred to the gas chromatograph for analysis via a robotic arm. The sampling module was modified to enable air sampling via an external pump. A typical run by this technique required 142 min, 100 min for air sampling and 42 min for the other operations, including a GC analysis time of 25 min. Recoveries of at least 85% were obtained for all compounds studied. The detection limits for formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were 2.2, 2.7 and 2.2 ppbv, respectively. All operations, including the conditioning of the cartridges, were performed without any intervention from the analyst.     

A critical review of principal traffic noise models: Strategies and implications

The paper presents an exhaustive comparison of principal traffic noise models adopted in recent years in developed nations. The comparison is drawn on the basis of technical attributes including source modelling and sound propagation algorithms. Although the characterization of source in terms of rolling and propulsion noise in conjunction with advanced numerical methods for sound propagation has significantly reduced the uncertainty in traffic noise predictions, the approach followed is quite complex and requires specialized mathematical skills for predictions which is sometimes quite cumbersome for town planners. Also, it is sometimes difficult to follow the best approach when a variety of solutions have been proposed. This paper critically reviews all these aspects pertaining to the recent models developed and adapted in some countries and also discusses the strategies followed and implications of these models.     

New experimental methods for the development and evaluation of aerosol samplers

An understanding of the scaling laws governing aerosol sampler performance leads to new options for testing aerosol samplers at small scale in a small laboratory wind tunnel. Two methods are described in this paper. The first involves an extension of what is referred to as the "conventional" approach, in which scaled aerosol sampler systems are tested in a small wind tunnel while exposed to relatively monodisperse aerosols. Such aerosols are collected by test and reference samplers respectively and assessed gravimetrically. The new studies were carried out for a modified, low flowrate version of the IOM personal inhalable aerosol sampler. It was shown that such experiments can be carried out with a very high level of repeatability, and this supported the general validity of the aerosol sampler scaling laws. The second method involves a novel testing system and protocol for evaluating the performances of aerosol samplers. Here, scaled aerosol samplers of interest are exposed to polydisperse aerosols, again in a small wind tunnel. In this instance, the sampled particles are counted and sized using a direct-reading aerodynamic particle sizer (the APS). A prototype automated aerosol sampler testing system based on this approach was built and evaluated in preliminary experiments to determine the performance of another modified version of the IOM personal inhalable aerosol sampler. The design of the new test system accounts for the complex fluid mechanical coupling that occurs near the sampler inlet involving the transition between the external flow outside the sampler and the internal airflow inside the sampler, leading in turn to uncontrolled particle losses. The problem was overcome by the insertion of porous plastic foam plugs. where the penetration characteristics are well understood, into the entries of both the test and the reference samplers. Preliminary experiments with this new system also supported the general validity of the aerosol sampler scaling laws. In addition, they demonstrated high potential that this approach may be applied in a standardised aerosol testing method and protocol.     

Numerical integration of chemical ODE problems arising in air pollution models

The numerical treatment of a regional air pollution model (such models are, as a rule, described mathematically by systems of partial differential equations) leads to the solution of very large computational problems. The chemical submodel of an air pollution model is normally the most timeconsuming part of the computational work. The application of appropriate discretization and splitting procedures reduces the chemical submodel to a large number of relatively small ODE systems (one such system per gridpoint). In the process of searching for efficient numerical algorithms for the chemical submodels one can carry out experiments by using only one such ODE system in order to facilitate the work. This approach has been used in connection with a particular chemical scheme, the condensed CBM IV scheme, which is used in several large air pollution models. Six integration algorithms have been tested on a set of typical scenarios (consisting of different starting concentrations and/or of different values of the emissions). The advantages and the disadvantages of the algorithms tested are discussed. The final decision about the most efficient algorithm, among the algorithms tested, should be made after a second series of experiments. The coupling of the chemical process with the transport of air pollution (on, at least, a twodimensional domain) together with the application of highspeed computers has to be studied in the second series of experiments, which will be performed in a subsequent paper.     

基于改进U-Net网络与联合损失函数的海南自然保护区高分辨率遥感变化检测模型

海南自然保护区遥感监测对森林资源监测、生态保护及热带亚热带地表研究具有重要意义。基于深度学习方法,针对海南省自然保护区大范围变化检测问题,对U-Net网络结构进行了改进,在每一个卷积层后加入标准化层,以跳线连接的形式将原有卷积模块改进为优化模块,同时在编码器底端添加金字塔池化模块以更好提取全局信息,形成了改进U-Net网络模型。模型训练采用基于交叉熵损失函数和广义骰子损失函数构建的联合损失函数,配合多种优化策略实现端到端的地物变化信息提取。该模型应用于公开数据集和研究构建的海南自然保护区数据集的变化检测任务,总体精度分别为97.21%(Kappa系数0.88)和95.12%(Kappa系数0.90),相比原始U-Net效果提升显著。     

The contribution of sensor-based equipment to life cycle assessment through improvement of data collection in the industry

Within the paradigm of “Industry 4.0”, data collection and management acquire new relevance. In this context, the introduction of the Internet of Things (IoT) in the manufacturing field allows to develop information systems able to offer the possibility of using a large amount of data collected from heterogeneous sources in real time. The information thus obtained is functional not only to the attainment of an industrial development but also for evaluation and improvement of its sustainability. For example, the benefit obtainable for the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology from the new digital configuration is represented by a greater specificity of data that wireless sensors networks (WSN) measure and transmit in a continuous way.This paper explores the benefit of using a sensor for the evaluation of the environmental impact, in particular for LCA, in an Italian company producing chemical formulations. The machinery electric consumption directly measured data is compared with the same data estimated with mathematical models. It highlights how much different approach of data measurement and calculation can affect the LCA results. The detection of the energy variable related to a single machine for a particular process, which has been described in the paper, represents a first step towards the implementation of a WSN, proposed by Scatol8 srl, to be used to produce in a more sustainable way.     

Accounting for Active Management and Risk Attitude in Forest Sector Models

Given the importance of anthropogenic determinants in forest ecosystems within Europe, the objective of this paper is to link the evidence arising from biological models to socio-economic determinants, where the expected returns of forest investments represent the main driver. A micro-economic area allocation module is therefore coupled with an inventory-based forest dynamics module and a partial-equilibrium market module in a national-level forest sector model for France (FFSM++). Running long-term scenarios (until 2100), we show the implication of an active management policy on forest composition: when the most profitable option drives forest investments, coniferous forests are generally preferred over broadleaved ones. This result is, however, reappraised when the risk aversion of forest owners is explicitly considered in the model, given the higher risk associated with the former. We further show the strong stability of forest ecosystems that, due to the very long cycles, undergoes very small variations in volume stocks, even in scenarios where the initial forest regeneration is strongly influenced.     

Developing an automated BIM-based life cycle assessment approach for modularly designed high-rise buildings

Modular construction has attracted increasing attention due to its energy and environmental benefits. Digital technologies such as building information modelling (BIM) have also been explored to generate and manage data through the lifecycle of buildings. Although research has been performed in the area of integrating BIM and modular construction, BIM-based automated lifecycle assessment (LCA) of prefabricated buildings remains unexplored. This study therefore aims to develop a BIM-based LCA method for prefabricated buildings incorporating different assessment levels with unique system boundaries and functional units. The developed approach can support automated assessments through all lifecycle phases of a prefabricated building. It is achieved through an automated process of creating parameters to merge LCA data into the building model, systematic zoning, model setup and impact estimation. This approach is applied to evaluate the energy and environmental performances of a case building in Hong Kong. The case study validated the efficiency of the developed BIM-based LCA method in providing a systematic and detailed assessment of modularly designed buildings. This study extends the knowledge in automated BIM-based LCA by addressing specific characteristics of prefabrication and promotes the incorporation of comprehensive and detailed LCA data into BIM models for improved design robustness and holistic performances of buildings. This validated approach will enhance the willingness of designers to apply LCA during the design stages for minimizing the energy and environmental impacts of both new and renovated buildings with prefabrication.     

Meta-Modeling to Assess the Possible Future of Paris Agreement

In the meta-modeling approach, one builds a numerically tractable dynamic optimization or game model in which the parameters are identified through statistical emulation of a detailed large scale numerical simulation model. In this paper, we show how this approach can be used to assess the economic impacts of possible climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement. One indicates why it is appropriate to assume that an international carbon market, with emission rights given to different groups of countries will exist. One discusses the approach to evaluate correctly abatement costs and welfare losses incurred by different groups of countries when implementing climate policies. Finally, using a recently proposed meta-model of game with a coupled constraint on a cumulative CO₂ emissions budget, we assess several new scenarios for possible fair burden sharing in climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement.     

Numerical Modeling on the Effect of Dissolved Oxygen on Nitrogen Transformation and Transport in Unsaturated Porous System

Nitrogen pollution in groundwater resulting from wastewater application to land is a common problem, and it causes a major threat to groundwater-based drinking water supplies. In this study, a numerical model is developed to study the nitrogen species transport and transformation in unsaturated porous media. Further, a new mass transfer module for dissolved oxygen (DO) is incorporated in the one-dimensional numerical model for nitrogen species transport to describe the fate and transport of nitrogen species, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and biomass. The spatial and temporal variation of dissolved oxygen is incorporated in the model through the mass transfer from gaseous phase to water phase in an unsaturated porous system. The numerical results of the water flow model and single species and multispecies transport model in an unsaturated zone developed for this purpose have been validated with the available analytical/numerical solution. The developed model is applied in clay loam, silt, and sand soils to analyze the transport behavior of nitrogen species under unsaturated condition. The numerical results suggest that the high rate of oxygen mass transfer from the air phase to the water phase positively increases the dissolved oxygen in the applied wastewater and enhances the nitrification process. Because of this high oxygen mass transfer, the nitrate nitrogen concentration significantly increases in the unsaturated zone and the same is transported to a larger depth at higher simulation period. On the other hand, the low rate of oxygen mass transfer implicitly enhances the denitrification process and finally reduces the nitrate nitrogen concentration in the unsaturated zone. The numerical results also show that the nitrate nitrogen transport is rapid in sandy soil when compared with clay loam and silty soils under high oxygen mass transfer rate. In essence, the high oxygen mass transfer rate significantly increases the nitrate nitrogen in the unsaturated zone, especially at a greater depth at larger time levels and eventually affects the groundwater quality.     

高架斜坡道路三维交通噪声动态模拟

为研究高架斜坡道路声场分布规律,根据城市快速路设计规范建立相应的斜坡道路模型,通过微观交通仿真软件结合噪声计算插件对其进行噪声动态模拟,获取三维空间的噪声值及道路垂直截面声场分布图,给出高架斜坡道路的声场分布规律。结果表明:高架斜坡道路上下坡两侧声场分布不对称,上坡一侧声影区界限划分较为明显,而下坡一侧声影区界限划分不明显;下坡侧接受点在高度4~20 m时,噪声值大于上坡侧对称点处的噪声值。     

Environmental degradation and remediation: is economics part of the problem?

It is argued that standard environmental economic and 'ecological economics', have the same fundamentals of valuation in terms of money, based on a demand curve derived from utilitymaximization. But this approach leads to three different measuresof value. An invariant measure of value exists only if the consumer has 'homothetic preferences'. In order to obtain a numerical estimate of value, specific functional forms are necessary, but typically these estimates do not converge. This is due to the fact that the underlying economic model is not structurally stable.According to neoclassical economics, any environmental remediation can be justified only in terms of increases in consumer satisfaction, balancing marginal gains against marginal costs. It is not surprising that the optimal policy obtained fromthis approach suggests only small reductions in greenhouse gases.We show that a unidimensional metric of consumer's utility measured in dollar terms can only trivialize the problem of global climate change.