第二代农民工及其市民化研究

农民工市民化是基于乡城劳动力两阶段转移的“中国路径”而提出的现实课题。第二代农民工不仅是一个在社会经济特征和个人特征方面与第一代农民工有着诸多显警不同的流动群体。而且也是最有市民化意愿和亟需市民化的群体。基于现有理论的局限性和中国特殊的现实提出了农民工市民化的命题并深入探讨了其内涵。进而在此基础上考察了第二代农民工的特征、第二代农民工的市民化进程及其面临的挑战。最后就第二代农民工市民化的进程环节和制度创新提出了针对性的对策建议。     

行为经济学视角的农民工隐性户籍墙分析

20世纪70年代滞涨后,大量无法解释应对的现实问题让人们意识到,主流经济学关于人的基本假设存在不足,在经济研究中结合人的心理的探讨是必要的。为解释现实中农民工不积极申请积分制入户,文章利用二元Logistic模型对武汉市数据进行了分析,并基于行为经济学中的失望/后悔效应、牺牲陷阱、偏见与错觉理论解释了结果,提出作为户籍制度衍生的社会屏蔽,隐性户籍墙应囊括由二元户籍导致的对农民和市民在社会生活一切方面的歧视,其对农民工农转非选择的作用不仅在于这些客观歧视,还在于农民工面对歧视时的主观心理。改革开放后,我国大规模的人口流动持续至今,未来相当长的时期内还会日趋活跃,尤以农民工的流动突出,凸显农民工市民化的重要性。当前,农民工对市民化的犹豫不愿意,反映户籍改革及其配套制度的建立完善不到位,其与促进农民工市民化、城镇化、实现城乡一体化的要求尚有差距。     

城乡二元制度对农民工市民化影响的实证分析

将影响农民工市民化的制度因素归结为城乡分割、城市偏向的城乡二元制度,分析了这一制度的内涵和基本特征,并运用Logistic回归模型和入户调查数据对这一制度对农民工市民化意愿、市民化能力和市民化进程的影响进行实证分析,结果发现,虽然农民工具有比较强烈的市民化愿望,但由于受到市民化能力的制约,绝大多数农民工无法转化为市民,因此尽快提离农民工的市民化能力成为促进农民工市民化的关键;在城乡二元制度中,除了城乡二元户籍制度之外,城乡二元就业制度、城乡二元社会保障制度、城乡二元土地制度和城乡二元教育制度对农民工市民化意愿和市民化能力,进而对农民工的市民化进程具有明显的阻碍作用:因此,未来城乡二元制度的创新重点不能再继续停留在形式化的城乡二元户籍制度层面,而应该尽快切换到对农民工的预期和收入等权利和待遇具有实质性影响的城乡二元就业制度、城乡二元社会保障制度、城乡二元土地制度和城乡二元教育制度上来.     

新生代农民工市民化进程与空间分异研究

农民工市民化问题是当今城市地理学研究的一个重大课题.基于大连市300名新生代农民工的问卷调查,从外部环境和新生代农民工自身情况两方面,构建了市民化指标体系,修正了基于C-D函数的市民化进程模型,采用SPSS软件对问卷结果进行统计分析,定量分析了大连市新生代农民工市民化进程的特点,运用Maplnfo作出空间分异图,得出大连市新生代农民工市民化进程的空间分异特征:①市内四个主城区的市民化水平低于副城区;②市中心及其辐射地带市民化水平较低,城乡结合部市民化水平较高;③市民化指标与市民化水平空间分异不匹配.目前新生代农民工市民化的相关制度环境处于阻碍阶段,城市居民对新生代农民工的社会认同和接纳程度较好,新生代农民工自身已经具备市民化的能力,城乡结合部和副城区(郊区)是其定居城市的最佳区域,农民工市民化进程是一个任重而道远的任务,国家、社会应为新生代农民工提供一个平台,加快农民工到市民的转化进程.     

Economic Analysis of Social Security System in Today's China's Countryside

To establish a complete villagers' social security system is one of the important steps in constructing new socialist villages. Theoretically speaking, establishing villagers' social security system is the need of welfare, social production and management of macro-demand. Nowadays, China has the ability to bear the expense of establishing villagers' social security system. As far as the existing state of rural areas is concerned, the function of land and family security is weakening, the social security need of peasant workers in cities in urbanization is increasing, and the rural population is aging. All these urgently need perfecting villagers' social security. Considering the existing state of China, currently four principles and three emphases should be maintained.     

On the Process of Peasant Workers’ Transformation to Urban Residents

The unique two-stage ＂Chinese path＂ of China＇s rural-urban migration, which cannot be fully explained by classical theories of economic development, makes us to give peasant workers＇ transformation to urban residents a top priority. On the basis of fully explaining peasant workers＇ transformation to urban residents, a method for measuring its process has been advanced and then confirmed with the data of March in 2005 from surveys to peasant workers in Wuhan. Finally, the suggestions of accelerating peasant workers＇ transformation to urban residents to promote the construction of a harmonious society have been drawn from the analysis.     

构建农民工的社会保障体系

农民工对城市和农村的发展功不可没。但是，由于制度不健全，遭遇市场风险的农民工缺乏基本的社会保障，处境艰难。本文分析了农民工缺乏社会保障的历史和现实原因，提出了构建农民工社会保障体系的设想，即以健康保障、失业保障和养老保障为主体的过渡性农民工社会保障体系，来衔接城乡社会保障。以适应城乡一体化的需要。     

人力资本、社会资本与市民化抑制

新生代农民工问题的终结是市民化,但是目前许多新生代农民工存在市民化阻碍,这不利于我国城市化进程的推进和经济的持续健康发展。对沈阳和余姚两地区进行了案例调查,得到了两地区新生代农民工的调查数据。运用调查数据,首先采用需求可识别的biprobit模型对新生代的农民工市民化抑制程度进行了测度,并预测出新生代农民工个体的市民化抑制程度。在对新生代农民工个体的市民化抑制程度指标进行分位数回归分解的基础上,分析了人力资本和社会资本对新生代农民工市民化抑制程度的影响,以期促进新生代农民工的城市融入。研究发现:新生代农民工的社会资本水平是影响其市民化的关键因素,人力资本水平的提高只有在市民化抑制程度高于80%时才会使市民化抑制程度下降。因此,相应的政策建议为,政府应加强新生代农民工城市公共服务的享用水平;发展和健全农民工工会组织;在市民化抑制程度较高的地区应特别加强新生代农民工职业技能的培训。     

Problems of Rural Migrant Workers and Policies in the New Period of Urbanization

The migration of rural migrant workers has new characteristics and results in problems in China's “urban diseases” caused by the bad order of migration with a huge number and a high degree of concentration, low level of collective action, marginality in social status, unfair treatment, difficult integration of the new generation, and new return trend of rural migrants. Countermeasures should be taken to develop medium-sized and small cities, integrate the labor market of the city and countryside, provide necessary public services and social security, provide vocational training, guide the rural migrant workers to return rationally, and help the new generation live in harmony with urban residents.     

Polyfluorinated compounds in dust from homes,offices, and vehicles as predictors of concentrations in office workers' serum

We aimed to characterize levels of polyfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in indoor dust from offices, homes, and vehicles; to investigate factors that may affect PFC levels in dust; and to examine the associations between PFCs in dust and office workers' serum. Dust samples were collected in 2009 from offices, homes, and vehicles of 31 individuals in Boston, MA and analyzed for nineteen PFCs, including perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs), and sulfonamidoethanols (FOSEs). Serum was collected from each participant and analyzed for eight PFCs including PFOA and PFOS. Perfluorononanoate, PFOA, perfluoroheptanoate, perfluorohexanoate, PFOS and 8:2 FTOH had detection frequencies > 50% in dust from all three microenvironments. The highest geometric mean concentration in office dust was for 8:2 FTOH (309 ng/g), while PFOS was highest in homes (26.9 ng/g) and vehicles (15.8 ng/g). Overall, offices had the highest PFC concentrations, particularly for longer-chain carboxylic acids and FTOHs. Perfluorobutyrate was prevalent in homes and vehicles, but not offices. PFOA serum concentrations were not associated with PFC dust levels after adjusting for PFC concentrations in office air. Dust concentrations of most PFCs are higher in offices than in homes and vehicles. However, indoor dust may not be a significant source of exposure to PFCs for office workers. This finding suggests that our previously published observation of an association between FTOH concentrations in office air and PFOA concentrations in office workers was not due to confounding by PFCs in dust.     

Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China

Abstract

According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.     

失地农民生活满意度测度及影响因素研究——以南京市仙林新村为例

改革开放以来，伴随着城镇化快速推进带来的城镇建设空间扩张和农村土地被征用现象的普遍化，相伴而来的失地农民问题逐渐成为提高城镇化质量亟需解决的重要难题。新型城镇化背景下，推动“以人为本”的市民化进程是提高城镇化质量的重要举措，而实现失地农民市民化的核心在于提高失地农民的生活满意度。以21世纪初期征地拆迁的南京市仙林新村为例，通过对失地农民问卷调查获取相关数据，并在已有研究基础上，对失地农民生活满意度状况及影响因素进行定量研究。结果表明，仙林新村失地农民的生活满意度并不高，总体得分仅为6490；采用因子分析法的影响因素研究发现，经济因素对失地农民生活满意度的影响并不显著，征地拆迁过程、政府作用、社区环境及个人感知等因素的影响较为明显     

不同类型农户对宅基地退出的响应

利用重庆市梁平县农户的调查数据,运用Logistic模型,探讨了户籍制度改革下不同类型农户宅基地退出意愿及其影响因素。结果表明：(1)在现有退地补偿政策下农户意愿普遍偏低,不同类型农户退地意愿存在一定的差异性;(2)影响纯农户宅基地退出的因素有户主年龄、家庭拥有的房屋数量、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响Ⅰ兼业户宅基地退出的因素有家庭宅基地面积大小、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响Ⅱ兼业户宅基地退出的因素有家庭小孩数、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响非农户宅基地退出的因素有户主年龄、户主文化程度、家庭人口数、宅基地面积和退地收益;其中,退地收益是影响各类农户退地决策最显著的因素,对政策的支持度是农户退地决策影响力最大的因素。研究认为,影响各类农户退地决策的因素存在差异,其核心问题还在于退地政策。政府应根据不同类型农户的特征完善目前的农村宅基地退出政策,这有助于提高农户的参与意愿,顺利推进户籍制度和农村土地制度的改革     

中国农户耕地资源利用及效率变化的研究

根据两个时期农户资料的比较,对近1个世纪以来中国农户的耕地利用及效率变化进行了分析.农户耕地利用方面主要分析了户均耕地面积、耕地的细碎化、复种指数、种植结构及集约度等的变化;效率方面主要分析了农户的耕地生产率及农业劳动生产率的变化.结果表明,与80年前相比,目前我国农户户均耕地面积仅为当时的30%左右,但土地生产率却提高了2～4倍,农业劳动生产率提高了3倍以上.农业生物化学技术的进步及广泛应用是农业生产率提高的最重要原因.因此,我国的农业发展应该进一步重视生物化学技术的应用,重视能够保证生物化学技术得以实施的基础设施和基本条件的建设.同时,我们也应该考虑边际报酬递减规律的作用,在一些生物化学技术的边际报酬已经相当低的地区,要进行制度创新,通过规模的扩大来获得规模经济,进一步发挥机械技术的作用.     

排污权的设定对环境技术进步的影响

排污权的设定是我国在治理环境污染过程中一项重要的政策。客观地评价这项政策的实施效果,不仅有利于政策本身的实施和完善,同时也可为其他地区开展相关工作提供借鉴。采用2004~2014年中国30个地区的面板数据,借鉴国内外评价政策实施效果的主流计量方法——双重差分法(Difference-in-Difference,DID),建立环境技术进步测度模型,探究排污权设定对环境技术进步的影响,最后提出政策建议。研究发现:当期排污权的设定并未对中国省际环境技术进步产生显著影响,但是在设定2 a之后,排污权在一定程度上控制了污染物的排放,其对我国环境污染的治理具有一定的促进作用,由此可以说明排污权确实能够提高环境技术进步。从长远来看,排污权的设定有利于我国经济健康可持续的发展。     

Applying Agroecology to Enhance the Productivity of Peasant Farming Systems in Latin America

The great majority of farmers in Latin America are peasants who still farm small plots of land, usually in marginal environments utilizing traditional and subsistence methods. The contribution of the 16 million peasant units to regional food security is, however, substantial. Research has shown that peasant systems, which mostly rely on local resources and complex cropping patterns, are reasonably productive despite their land endowments and low use of external inputs. Moreover analysis of NGO-led agroecological initiatives show that traditional crop and animal systems can be adapted to increase productivity by biologically re-structuring peasant farms which in turn leads to optimization of key agroecosystem processes (nutrient cycling, organic matter accumulation, biological pest regulation, etc.) and efficient use of labor and local resources. Examples of such grassroots projects are herein described to show that agroecological approaches can offer opportunities to substantially increase food production while preserving the natural resource base and empowering rural communities.     

新时期城镇化进程中的农民工问题与对策

在新时期城镇化进程中。农民工的流动具有新的特点：农民工基数大、集中度高。造成流向偏差进而引发“大城市病”,面临组织化程度低、社会地位被“边缘化”,遭受经济贡献与利益分事上的失衡．并且新生代农民工和返航农民工正从农民工群体内部分化出来。在这种情况下。应增强中小城市的吸引力．加强城乡劳动力市场一体化建设。为进城农民工提供必要的公共服务和社会保障,加强职业技能培训。合理引导农民工“返航”潮流。帮助新生代农民工融入城市．防止“拉美陷阱”的出现。     

Trace organic chemical contaminants in office spaces

We present data suggesting that workers in offices are exposed to a broad spectrum of solvent-related organic chemical contaminants present in very low concentrations relative to promulgated or recommended industrial hygiene exposure levels, but in high concentrations relative to outdoor air. With the aid of simple modeling, working hypotheses about various contaminant sources — new and aged building materials, wet-process photocopiers, tobacco smoke, and building maintenance products — are made with respect to the composition, amounts, and generation patterns of their emissions. The results show that effective control strategies can be implemented that do not compromise energy efficiency.     

农村水利供给的非均衡性与治理制度创新

通过对湖北农田水利供给的非均衡性分析。探寻农田水利供给困境的根源。研究表明：农田水利的集体供给体制越来越难以维系。农户自我供给制加速了集体供给制的衰退；受制度环境．合伙互助供给制只局限于狭小的范围内；农户合作供给行为因制度短缺和资源禀赋约束而难以发展壮大。最后．文章力图提出适宜的农田水利供给制度创新思路。     

Problems of Rural Migrant Workers and Policies in the New Period of Urbanization

The huge migration of rural workers has new characteristics such as the bad order, high degree of concentration, low level of collective action, marginality in social status, unfair treatment, difficult integration of the new generation, and the new return trend of rural migrants, which causes ＇urban diseases＇ in China. Countermeasures should be taken to develop medium-sized and small cities, integrate the labor market of the city and countryside, provide necessary public services, social security and vocational training, guide the rural migrant workers to return rationally, and help the new generation live in harmony with urban residents.