Ecological mapping: A framework for delimiting forest management units

Ecological mapping attempts to objectively and spatially delimit and represent the natural organization and structure of the landscape. It offers nested levels of resolution, based upon a regionalization process, and provides an ecological basis for planning activities that may impact upon the environment.The essential principles of ecological mapping, as applied by the Quebec Ministry of Environment and Wildlife, are summarized. A methodological mapping approach is proposed for the determination of significant land portions for forest management using an ecological map at a scale of 1:50 000. At this scale, two nested levels of perception are expressed: 1) the topographic complex, and 2) the topographic entity. The topographic entity can be further subdivided into working units based upon operational criteria oriented to forest management. Within each nested level from topographic complex to working unit, there is a corresponding increase in the amount of detailed information available. Ecological mapping undertaken at 1:50 000 scale can provide a reliable and robust tool for planning forest management activities. In most cases, major ecological variations can be expressed and mapped at this scale; however, a greater degree of generalization must be accepted in the planning process when working at this scale rather than at larger scales.     

Development of a practical forest ecosystem classification from existing biophysical studies: An approach used in northwestern Quebec

While forest ecosystem classification work in Quebec has traditionally concentrated on inventory and mapping, more effort is now being placed on developing field guides similar to those produced in other Canadian provinces. As part of a project to produce a practical forest ecosystem field guide for the Amos Lowlands Ecological Region in northwestern Quebec, existing sub-regional ecological studies were exploited in order to develop a regional classification of forest ecosystems, or forest stations. Review of four fundamental studies provided a list of 107 ecological phases, each representing a particular combination of forest composition, surface deposit type and moisture regime. A series of silvicultural and environmental interpretations were developed and values for each were attributed to the ecological phases. Cluster analysis was then performed to classify phases into 29 broader units. A large, regional biophysical database which became available later in the project provided a means of validating and effectively modifying the classification. The justifications for using the original approach are discussed.     

Developing an Ecological Land Classification for the Fundy Model Forest,southeastern New Brunswick,Canada

The methodology for developing and mapping a hierarchical Ecological Land Classification (ELC) is presented. The classification provided a systematic methodology that explained the distribution and composition of southern New Brunswick's forested landscape. The nested structure of the ELC identified and provided a hierarchical linkage between ecosystems from the size of forest stands to climate regions. This framework made the collection and analysis of data efficient and gave confidence that tree species distributions, which were central to understanding the influence of abiotic factors on the forest systems, were controlled by the factors examined at each level of the hierarchy. This ELC methodology, developed for the Fundy Model forest, was successful in describing and mapping the Climate, Geomorphologic, and Regolith controlled forest ecosystems. Preliminary classification indicates that spatial referencing of the Site Level is achievable.     

Compositing climate change vulnerability of a Mediterranean region using spatiotemporally dynamic proxies for ecological and socioeconomic impacts and stabilities

The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km²) and 11.8% (6374 km²) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological–socioeconomic systems.     

A national framework for monitoring and reporting on environmental sustainability in Canada

In 1991, a collaborative project to revise the terrestrial component of a national ecological framework was undertaken with a wide range of stakeholders. This spatial framework consists of multiple, nested levels of ecological generalization with linkages to existing federal and provincial scientific databases. The broadest level of generalization is the ecozone. Macroclimate, major vegetation types and subcontinental scale physiographic formations constitute the definitive components of these major ecosystems. Ecozones are subdivided into approximately 200 ecoregions which are based on properties like regional physiography, surficial geology, climate, vegetation, soil, water and fauna. The ecozone and ecoregion levels of the framework have been depicted on a national map coverage at 1:7 500 000 scale. Ecoregions have been subdivided into ecodistricts based primarily on landform, parent material, topography, soils, waterbodies and vegetation at a scale (1:2 000 000) useful for environmental resource management, monitoring and modelling activities. Nested within the ecodistricts are the polygons that make up the Soil Landscapes of Canada series of 1:1 000 000 scale soil maps. The framework is supported by an ARC-INFO GIS at Agriculture Canada. The data model allows linkage to associated databases on climate, land use and socio-economic attributes.     

Development of a multilevel Ecological Classification System for the state of Minnesota

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) began development of an Ecological Classification System (ECS) in 1991. The ECS is hierarchically organized into six levels following the United States Forest Service structure. The upper four levels are being developed State-wide by an interdisciplinary group from several agencies. Geographic Information Systems approaches are being used to overlay and integrate existing data. The first two levels (Province and Section) have been completed. The third level (Subsection) is nearly completed, and work on the fourth level (Land Type Association (LTA)) started in January 1995. Classification and inventory for the lowest two levels (Ecological Land Type and Ecological Land Type Phase) was cooperatively undertaken on two Land Type Associations within the Chippewa National Forest. A sample set of management interpretations is being developed and tested for the two lower levels. Workshops demonstrating how ECS can be used for natural resource management began in mid-1995 and will continue for several years, as will development of the lower two levels on LTAs beyond the Chippewa National Forest.     

Regionalising the Results of a National Structural Decomposition Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Application to Aquitaine Region

Tougher restrictions on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions imposed by both national and international institutions are compelling regions to implement climate plans. However, the constraints of available statistics mean there is a shortage of regional-level information. We develop a method for regionalising the results of a national structural decomposition analysis for identifying the main factors contributing to the changing pattern of GHG emissions both at macro-economic level and at sectoral level. An illustration was carried out for the Aquitaine region. Results indicate that the method is relatively effective at least at the macroeconomic level given the statistical constraints.     

The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

Ecological footprint accounting: A multi-scale approach based on net primary productivity

The Ecological footprint accounting is a resource accounting tool that is used to track the sustainability of human systems. In this paper, we present a new approach to calculate the Ecological Footprint metrics at different geographic scales using Net Primary Productivity data. Our study focuses on the town of Afourar, Morocco, as a case study examined at three different scales; national, regional, and provincial scale. In contrast with other studies, our footprint accounting results are expressed in what we have called territorial hectares. The accounting results show that geographic scale has a significant influence on the footprint model, where three cases of sustainability were found. This implies that the efforts to maintain the sustainability of territories are more important at some scales than others. We argue that the relationship between sustainability and geographic scale is both strong and complex and that sustainability is a spatially relative concept. Therefore, we conclude that multi-scale analysis is crucial for making sustainable decisions and management policies.     

Assessing the impact of multiple drivers of land sensitivity to desertification in a Mediterranean country

Experiencing climate changes and increased human pressure, Mediterranean regions are considered representative hotspots of desertification. However, relatively few studies have been devoted to quantify the individual impact of different factors shaping land sensitivity to desertification in these contexts. Our study contributes to this deserving (positive and normative) issue with a diachronic analysis of the impact of multiple drivers of desertification risk on six indicators of land sensitivity based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) approach. Indicators (average and maximum ESA score, coefficient of variation and normalized range in the ESA scores, share of ‘fragile’ and ‘critical’ areas in total landscape) were calculated in 777 rural districts of Italy at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, and early-2010s). Multivariate models were used to determine the impact of 12 predictors (climate, soil, vegetation, and land management quality) on each indicator of land sensitivity. Results of the analysis identified two non-redundant dimensions respectively associated with the average level of land sensitivity and its intrinsic variability across space. Impacts of climate and vegetation qualities on the level of land sensitivity were high, decreasing over time, and more intense respectively in Northern and Southern Italy. Impacts of soil and land management qualities were moderate, increasing over time, and involving almost all the country's area. Our study emphasizes the role of context-based measures promoting sustainable land management. The ‘local’ dimension proved to be crucial in any strategy of risk mitigation undertaken at disaggregated spatial scales.     

Assessing cancer incidence in a small community

Many small communities are concerned about health effects from environmental pollutants. One such community, Orwell, in Oswego County, New York, was investigated to determine if the level of cancer was significantly high in comparison to the county and the state. A pilot health study was administered among residents living in a defined area. Results of the survey demonstrated that cancer incidence was higher than both Oswego County and New York State, while cancer mortality was higher for men and lower for woman. A closer examination of the data showed that the way in which health surveys are usually analyzed may not be appropriate for small communities. In particular, some parametric statistics, such as chi-square analysis, might show significant differences between populations when standardized incidence and mortality rates are derived from small samples, yet standard deviations calculated from these data are so large as to cast doubt on the analysis. Researchers have discussed this problem theoretically, but empirical studies illustrating the difficulties have not heretofore appeared in the published literature. For health studies in small communities, greater consideration should be given to risk ratios and the implications of standard deviations.     

Spatial patterns in forest composition and standing dead red spruce in montane forests of the Adirondacks and northern Appalachians

The decline of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in montane forests of the northeastern United States has been previously reported. The objective of this study was to assess spatial patterns, if any, in standing dead red spruce stems in the Adirondacks of New York and northern Appalachians of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. A stratified random sample of 19 mountains along a west to east transect in the Adirondacks and the northern Appalachians showed that the live basal area of all species was highest in the White Mountains (34.6 m² ha^–1) and lowest in the Adirondack Mountains (23.7 m² ha^–1) in the Green Mountains was significantly lower than in any other region. Intact standing dead red spruce in the Adirondack and Green Mountains (30%) was significantly higher than that in the three eastern clusters (14%). The amount of intact standing dead red spruce trees increased with elevation in only the western part of the region. With the exception of the Adirondacks, there was a greater average percent dead red spruce on the west side than on the east side of each mountain. The sum of standing dead for other tree species (average 13%) showed no statistically significant patterns with region, elevation or aspect, and was significantly lower than the amount of total dead red spruce (average 42%). The standing dead red spruce patterns we observed cannot be associated with any specific causal factors at this time.     

A multi-level assessment methodology for determining the potential for groundwater contamination by pesticides

A multi-level pesticide assessment methodology has been developed to permit regulatory personnel to undertake a variety of assessments on the potential for pesticide used in agricultural areas to contaminate the groundwater regime at an increasingly detailed geographical scale of investigation. A multi-level approach accounts for a variety of assessment objectives and detail required in the assessment, the restrictions on the availability and accuracy of data, the time available to undertake the assessment, and the expertise of the decision maker. The level 1: regional scale is designed to prioritize districts having a potentially high risk for groundwater contamination from the application of a specific pesticide for a particular crop. The level 2: local scale is used to identify critical areas for groundwater contamination, at a soil polygon scale, within a district. A level 3: soil profile scale allows the user to evaluate specific factors influencing pesticide leaching and persistence, and to determine the extent and timing of leaching, through the simulation of the migration of a pesticide within a soil profile. Because of the scale of investigation, limited amount of data required, and qualitative nature of the assessment results, the level 1 and level 2 assessment are designed primarily for quick and broad guidance related to management practices. A level 3 assessment is more complex, requires considerably more data and expertise on the part of the user, and hence is designed to verify the potential for contamination identified during the level 1 or 2 assessment. The system combines environmental modelling, geographical information systems, extensive databases, data management systems, expert systems, and pesticide assessment models, to form an environmental information system for assessing the potential for pesticides to contaminate groundwater.     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

Meta-Modeling to Assess the Possible Future of Paris Agreement

In the meta-modeling approach, one builds a numerically tractable dynamic optimization or game model in which the parameters are identified through statistical emulation of a detailed large scale numerical simulation model. In this paper, we show how this approach can be used to assess the economic impacts of possible climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement. One indicates why it is appropriate to assume that an international carbon market, with emission rights given to different groups of countries will exist. One discusses the approach to evaluate correctly abatement costs and welfare losses incurred by different groups of countries when implementing climate policies. Finally, using a recently proposed meta-model of game with a coupled constraint on a cumulative CO₂ emissions budget, we assess several new scenarios for possible fair burden sharing in climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement.     

Geographic Analysis of Species Richness and Community Attributes of Forest Birds from Survey Data in the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Region

Species richness of local communities is a state variable commonly used in community ecology and conservation biology. Investigation of spatial and temporal variations in richness and identification of factors associated with these variations form a basis for specifying management plans, evaluating these plans, and for testing hypotheses of theoretical interest. However, estimation of species richness is not trivial: species can be missed by investigators during sampling sessions. Sampling artifacts can lead to erroneous conclusions on spatial and temporal variation in species richness. Here we use data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to estimate parameters describing the state of bird communities in the Mid-Atlantic Assessment (MAIA) region: species richness, extinction probability, turnover and relative species richness. We use a recently developed approach to estimation of species richness and related parameters that does not require the assumption that all the species are detected during sampling efforts. The information presented here is intended to visualize the state of bird communities in the MAIA region. We provide information on 1975 and 1990. We also quantified the changes between these years. We summarized and mapped the community attributes at a scale of management interest (watershed units).     

Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses

Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950–2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950–2005 as a whole. In the period 1971–2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.     

上海市浦东新区大气降水化学组分及其相关性分析

依据上海市浦东新区2010—2015年2个代表性采样点的142份监测数据,对降水中的化学组成及各组分间的相关性进行了分析。结果表明,监测期间单次降雨的pH值为3.85~6.09,平均值为5.09,属硫酸型/硝酸型复合污染酸雨。其中SO_4~(2-)和NO_3~-为主要离子,平均值分别为4.55和3.31 mg/L。通过SPSS统计分析得出,人类生活和生产过程以及海洋源是浦东新区大气降水化学组分的主要来源,但仍存在不同的区域特征。