An evaluation of risk assessment framework for industrial accidents in India

Due to rapid industrialization, with high population density and constraints of land, it is expected that level of risks arising from the hazardous industries will increase in India in the coming decades. However, 30 years after the Bhopal accident (1984), except a few discrete regulations, there is as yet no integrated system for assessing and managing risks arising out of these hazardous industries in India. The gravity of aspects related to the management of industrial risk still remains crucially important. In particular, there is no standard guideline on risk analysis methodology, acceptability or tolerability criteria, nor is there an accident database or a risk reduction strategy for the areas where risk levels are already high. On top of this, there are technical and legislative gaps in the institutional framework to implement any of the above mentioned issues. With the backdrop of the Bhopal gas tragedy, the objective of this paper is therefore to evaluate the effectiveness of a comprehensive risk assessment framework for the emerging economy of India, in order to control and/or to reduce the risk level that exists. In this context, regulations and policies pertaining to industrial risk assessment were reviewed.     

Fault propagation behavior study and root cause reasoning with dynamic Bayesian network based framework

The Bhopal disaster was a gas leak incident in India, considered the world's worst industrial disaster happened around process facilities. Nowadays the process facilities in petrochemical industries have becoming increasingly large and automatic. There are many risk factors with complex relationships among them. Unfortunately, some operators have poor access to abnormal situation management experience due to the lack of knowledge. However these interdependencies are seldom accounted for in current risk and safety analyses, which also belonged to the main factor causing Bhopal tragedy. Fault propagation behavior of process system is studied in this paper, and a dynamic Bayesian network based framework for root cause reasoning is proposed to deal with abnormal situation. It will help operators to fully understand the relationships among all the risk factors, identify the causes that lead to the abnormal situations, and consider all available safety measures to cope with the situation. Examples from a case study for process facilities are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. It also provides a method to help us do things better in the future and to make sure that another such terrible accident never happens again.     

Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development

The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities.     

A CFD based explosion risk analysis methodology using time varying release rates in dispersion simulations

A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

Quantitative assessment in safety reports of the consequences from the detonation of solid explosives

Safety reports are mandatory documents in member states of European Union whenever any threshold limits of amounts of either stored or processed hazardous substances are exceeded. After a short introduction to EU Seveso Directives on major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances and to the transposition and implementation by member states, with a brief comment on last 2012/18/EU Directive (also known as Seveso III directive), the paper focuses on drafting of safety reports for industrial activities involving solid explosives. Specifically, the quantitative assessment of consequences from detonation is tackled respect to the side-on overpressure and the debris production. Both direct and inverse problems are illustrated to determine respectively the overpressure value at a given distance, and the explosive amount that allows respecting the regulations. Their solution is based on either analytic or numerical techniques and being based on recent scientific publications on the matter either evaluates or zeroes nonlinear algebraic equations. The availability of these equations avoids grounding the consequences assessment on diagrams and nomograms that otherwise would lead to interpretation and usage errors besides avoiding the automatic solution of the inverse problem. The paper focuses also on details such as embankment, crater, munitions, rocket propellant, building structure, and wall material that, at different levels, play a role in the assessment of detonation consequences. A discussion on debris formation, the available literature, and the evaluation of the impact probability of fragments on both fixed and moving targets closes the paper.     

Root causes of hydrocarbon leaks on offshore petroleum installations

Hydrocarbon leaks on offshore installations may result in severe consequences to personnel, to the environment and to assets. In order to prevent such leaks, it is crucial to understand their root causes. The objective of this paper is to study the circumstances of hydrocarbon leaks on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). In the study, all reported hydrocarbon leaks from process inventories on all offshore installations on the NCS, with an initial leak rate higher than 0.1 kg/s in the period 2008–2014, have been considered. This includes 78 hydrocarbon leaks, of which about 60% have occurred during manual intervention on normally pressurized systems. The dominating activity when leaks occur is preventive maintenance. A significant fraction of the leaks occur during the preparation for maintenance; such a preparation is typically carried out during the night shift. About half of the leaks are associated with wellhead area and manifolds, separation and compression systems. A substantial fraction of the leaks can be associated with verification faults, dominated by the failure to comply with procedural requirements that are needed to carry out independent verification.     

Tools for an enhanced solvent properties screening in the early stages of pharmaceutical process development

The objective of this research was the implementation of tools for the evaluation of solvents trough property screening in the early stages of process development. An important feature of the tools is that the implementation of indexes, scores, or weights is avoided. Information already available from the literature was stored in a database in order to turn raw data into decision making information. As a result, a solvent radar chart, a solvent representation table, and a solvent telescopying tool were developed in an ASP.NET application. The synthesis of Propranolol was used as study case in order to explore the selection of solvents in the early stages of process development. The replacement of diethyl ether was possible in the extraction step, while solvent choices were detected for potential telescoping for extraction and crystallisation steps. Solubility was found as a critical parameter in telescoping analysis. The methodology proposed enhanced the view towards a more holistic perspective and a more robust solvent screening process. As a consequence, the next steps into solvent evaluation and process development can be reduced.     

Inherently safer sustained casing pressure testing for well integrity evaluation

This paper presents the use of a model to predict sustained casing pressure (SCP), from early pressure buildup data, as a basis for inherently safer well integrity testing. Inherently safer principles aim to eliminate or reduce the hazards by design rather than by using protective features. SCP, a well integrity issue exhibited in many wells, is any measurable pressure that rebuilds after being bled down and attributable to causes other than artificially applied pressure or temperature fluctuations in the well. Intrusion of gas, resulting in SCP, can occur because of poor cement bond in the casing or cement deterioration. Gas entering the annulus migrates to the wellhead and represents a hazard due to increased wellhead pressure and the gas inventory. Compromised well integrity can have catastrophic consequences on both environmental and safety aspects.Most regulations require the monitoring, testing and, eventually, the elimination of SCP. However, test data analysis is predominantly qualitative and limited to arbitrary criteria. Due to the high percentage of wells that present SCP, accurate, safe and preferably fast testing methods are needed. This paper implements an analytical model, rooted in the transport processes and thermodynamics of the system, to predict pressure profiles and gas accumulation during SCP testing from early-time pressure buildup data. The amount of gas accumulated during different testing criteria, being 1) current practices and 2) early diagnostic by the analytical model, is calculated and compared. Results show that using the analytical model as a predictive tool, testing time is reduced significantly, thereby limiting the amount of gas accumulated and reducing the risk. This makes the testing procedure inherently safer as well as less time consuming.     

Pipeline leakage detection and isolation: An integrated approach of statistical and wavelet feature extraction with multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)

Leakage diagnosis of hydrocarbon pipelines can prevent environmental and financial losses. This work proposes a novel method that not only detects the occurrence of a leakage fault, but also suggests its location and severity. The OLGA software is employed to provide the pipeline inlet pressure and outlet flow rates as the training data for the Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system. The FDI system is comprised of a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) classifier with various feature extraction methods including the statistical techniques, wavelet transform, and a fusion of both methods. Once different leakage scenarios are considered and the preprocessing methods are done, the proposed FDI system is applied to a 20-km pipeline in southern Iran (Goldkari-Binak pipeline) and a promising severity and location detectability (a correct classification rate of 92%) and a low False Alarm Rate (FAR) were achieved.     

Distributed generation by energy from waste technology: A life cycle perspective

Municipal Solid Waste in general and its organic fraction in particular is a potential renewable and non-seasonal resource. In this work, a life cycle assessment has been performed to evaluate the environmental impacts of two future scenarios using biogas produced from the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) to supply energy to a group of dwellings, respectively comprising distributed generation using solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) micro-CHP systems and condensing boilers. The London Borough of Greenwich is taken as the reference case study. The system is designed to assess how much energy demand can be met and what is the best way to use the digestible waste for distributed energy purposes.The system is compared with two alternative scenarios fuelled by natural gas: a reference scenario, where the electricity is supplied by the grid and the heat is supplied from condensing boilers, and a fuel cell micro-CHP system. The results show that, although OFMSW alone can only supply between 1% and 4% of the total energy demand of the Borough, a saving of ∼130 tonnes of CO₂ eq per year per dwelling equipped with micro-CHP is still achievable compared with the reference scenario. This is primarily due to the surplus electricity produced by the fuel cell when the micro-CHP unit is operated to meet the heat demand. Use of biogas to produce heat only is therefore a less desirable option compared with combined heat and power production. Further investigation is required to identify locally available feedstock other than OFMSW in order to increase the proportion of energy demand that can be met in this way.     

Validation of the UN test method N.5

Many substances react with water in such a way that flammable gases are formed. For transport issues this reaction may possess a considerable hazard especially if the cargo is wetted by rain or by water from other sources. In the UN Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods these kinds of problems are addressed. The UN test N.5 “Test method for substances which in contact with water emit flammable gases” corresponds to this hazard. Classification according to the test method is done by measurement of the gas evolution rate of the flammable gas by any suitable procedure. At BAM a gravimetric approach is used to measure the gas evolution rate. In this paper we present the evaluation of the apparatus by means of an absolute calibration routine utilizing a reaction where a known amount of gas is produced as well as the evaluation of important parameters influencing the gas evolution rate using different substances. It can be shown that the apparatus is capable of measuring absolute gas volumes as low as 6 mL with an acceptable error of about 17% as determined from the reaction of Mg with demineralized water.     

Review of the DESC project

Dust Explosion Simulation Code (DESC) was a project supported by the European Commission under the Fifth Framework Programme. The main purpose of the project was to develop a simulation tool based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that could predict the potential consequences of industrial dust explosions in complex geometries. Partners in the DESC consortium performed experimental work on a wide range of topics related to dust explosions, including dust lifting by flow or shock waves, flame propagation in vertical pipes, dispersion-induced turbulence and flame propagation in closed vessels, dust explosions in closed and vented interconnected vessel systems, and measurements in real process plants. The new CFD code DESC is based on the existing CFD code FLame ACceleration Simulator (FLACS) for gas explosions. The modelling approach adopted in the first version entails the extraction of combustion parameters from pressure–time histories measured in standardized 20-l explosion vessels. The present paper summarizes the main experimental results obtained during the DESC project, with a view to their relevance regarding dust explosion modelling, and describes the modelling of flow and combustion in the first version of the DESC code. Capabilities and limitations of the code are discussed, both in light of its ability to reproduce experimental results, and as a practical tool in the field of dust explosion safety.     

Does your facility have a dust problem: Methods for evaluating dust explosion hazards

The hazards of dust explosions prevailing in plants are dependent on a large variety of factors that include process parameters, such as pressure, temperature and flow characteristics, as well as equipment properties, such as geometry layout, the presence of moving elements, dust explosion characteristics and mitigating measures. A good dust explosion risk assessment is a thorough method involving the identification of all hazards, their probability of occurrence and the severity of potential consequences. The consequences of dust explosions are described as consequences for personnel and equipment, taking into account consequences of both primary and secondary events.While certain standards cover all the basic elements of explosion prevention and protection, systematic risk assessments and area classifications are obligatory in Europe, as required by EU ATEX and Seveso II directives. In the United States, NFPA 654 requires that the design of the fire and explosion safety provisions shall be based on a process hazard analysis of the facility, process, and the associated fire or explosion hazards. In this paper, we will demonstrate how applying such techniques as SCRAM (short-cut risk analysis method) can help identify potentially hazardous conditions and provide valuable assistance in reducing high-risk areas. The likelihood of a dust explosion is based on the ignition probability and the probability of flammable dust clouds arising. While all possible ignition sources are reviewed, the most important ones include open flames, mechanical sparks, hot surfaces, electric equipment, smoldering combustion (self-ignition) and electrostatic sparks and discharges. The probability of dust clouds arising is closely related to both process and dust dispersion properties.Factors determining the consequences of dust explosions include how frequently personnel are present, the equipment strength, implemented consequence-reducing measures and housekeeping, as risk assessment techniques demonstrate the importance of good housekeeping especially due to the enormous consequences of secondary dust explosions (despite their relatively low probability). The ignitibility and explosibility of the potential dust clouds also play a crucial role in determining the overall risk.Classes describe both the likelihood of dust explosions and their consequences, ranging from low probabilities and limited local damage, to high probability of occurrence and catastrophic damage. Acceptance criteria are determined based on the likelihood and consequence of the events. The risk assessment techniques also allow for choosing adequate risk reducing measures: both preventive and protective. Techniques for mitigating identified explosions risks include the following: bursting disks and quenching tubes, explosion suppression systems, explosion isolating systems, inerting techniques and temperature control. Advanced CFD tools (DESC) can be used to not only assess dust explosion hazards, but also provide valuable insight into protective measures, including suppression and venting.     

A quantitative risk management framework for dust and hybrid mixture explosions

Dust and hybrid-mixture explosions continue to occur in industrial processes that handle fine powders and flammable gases. Considerable research is therefore conducted throughout the world with the objective of both preventing the occurrence and mitigating the consequences of such events. In the current work, research has been undertaken to help move the field of dust explosion prevention and mitigation from its current emphasis on hazards (with an accompanying reliance on primarily engineered safety features) to a focus on risk (with an accompanying reliance on hierarchical, risk-based, decision-making tools). Employing the principles of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of dust and hybrid-mixture explosions, a methodological framework for the management of these risks has been developed.The QRA framework is based on hazard identification via credible accident scenarios for dust explosions, followed by probabilistic fault-tree analysis (using Relex – Reliability Excellence – software) and consequence severity analysis (using DESC – Dust Explosion Simulation Code – software). Identification of risk reduction measures in the framework is accomplished in a hierarchical manner by considering inherent safety measures, passive and active engineered devices, and procedural measures (in that order). An industrial case study is presented to show how inherent safety measures such as dust minimization and dust/process moderation can be helpful in reducing dust and hybrid-mixture explosion consequences in a 400-m³ polyethylene storage silo.     

Real-time risk assessment of explosion on offshore platform using Bayesian network and CFD

Combustion or explosion accident resulting from accidental hydrocarbon release poses a severe threat to the offshore platform's operational safety. Much attention has been paid to the risk of an accident occurring over a long period, while the real-time risk that escalates from a primary accident to a serious one was ignored. In this study, a real-time risk assessment model is presented for risk analysis of release accidents, which may escalate into a combustion or explosion. The proposed model takes advantage of Fault Tree-Event Tree (FT-ET) to describe the accident scenario, and Bayesian network (BN) to obtain the initial probability of each consequence and describe the dependencies among safety barriers. Besides, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is applied to handle the relationship between gas dispersion and time-dependent risk. Ignition probability model that considering potential ignition sources, gas cloud, and time series are also integrated into this framework to explain the likelihood of accident evolution. A case of release accidents on a production platform is used to test the availability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology, which can be adopted for facilities layout optimization and ignition sources control.     

Experimental and numerical investigation of constant volume dust and gas explosions in a 3.6-m flame acceleration tube

This paper describes an experimental investigation of turbulent flame propagation in propane-air mixtures, and in mechanical suspensions of maize starch dispersed in air, in a closed vessel of length 3.6 m and internal cross-section 0.27 m × 0.27 m. The primary motivation for the work is to gain improved understanding of turbulent flame propagation in dust clouds, with a view to develop improved models and methods for assessing explosion risks in the process and mining industries. The study includes computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations with FLACS and DESC, for gas and dust explosions respectively. For initially quiescent propane-air mixtures, FLACS over-predicts the rate of combustion for fuel-lean mixtures, and under-predicts for fuel-rich mixtures. The simulations tend to be in better agreement with the experimental results for initially turbulent gaseous mixtures. The experimental results for maize starch vary significantly between repeated tests, but the subset of tests that yields the highest explosion pressures are in reasonable agreement with CFD simulations with DESC.     

A quantitative risk assessment tool for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tool has been developed by TNO for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard. As a first step an industrial plant is divided into groups of modules, defined by their size, shape, and constructional properties. Then the relevant explosion scenarios are determined, together with their frequency of occurrence. These include scenarios in which one module participates, as well as domino scenarios. The frequency is partly based on casuistry.

A typical burning velocity is determined depending on the ignition type, the dust properties and the local conditions for flame acceleration. The resulting pressure development is predicted with the ‘thin flame model’. Module failure occurs when the explosion load exceeds thresholds, which are derived from single degree of freedom (SDOF) calculations for various types of modules. A model has been developed to predict the process of pressure venting after module failure and the related motion of launched module parts.

The blast effects of the primary explosion are based on results from calculations with BLAST3D. The blast and flame effects of the secondary external explosion due to venting are calculated using existing models. The throw of fragments and debris is quantified with a recently developed model. This model is based on trajectory calculations and gives the impact densities, velocities, and angles as output. Furthermore the outflow of bulk material is taken into account. The consequences for external objects and human beings are calculated using existing models. Finally the risk contours and the Societal risk (FN curve) are calculated, which can be compared to regulations.