On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Turning the Tide: How Blue Carbon and Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) Might Help Save Mangrove Forests

In this review paper, we aim to describe the potential for, and the key challenges to, applying PES projects to mangroves. By adopting a “carbocentric approach,” we show that mangrove forests are strong candidates for PES projects. They are particularly well suited to the generation of carbon credits because of their unrivaled potential as carbon sinks, their resistance and resilience to natural hazards, and their extensive provision of Ecosystem Services other than carbon sequestration, primarily nursery areas for fish, water purification and coastal protection, to the benefit of local communities as well as to the global population. The voluntary carbon market provides opportunities for the development of appropriate protocols and good practice case studies for mangroves at a small scale, and these may influence larger compliance schemes in the future. Mangrove habitats are mostly located in developing countries on communally or state-owned land. This means that issues of national and local governance, land ownership and management, and environmental justice are the main challenges that require careful planning at the early stages of mangrove PES projects to ensure successful outcomes and equitable benefit sharing within local communities.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0530-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Planning nature-based solutions: Principles,steps, and insights

Nature-based solutions (NBS) find increasing attention as actions to address societal challenges through harnessing ecological processes, yet knowledge gaps exist regarding approaches to landscape planning with NBS. This paper aims to provide suggestions of how planning NBS can be conceptualized and applied in practice. We develop a framework for planning NBS by merging insights from literature and a case study in the Lahn river landscape, Germany. Our framework relates to three key criteria that define NBS, and consists of six steps of planning: Co-define setting, Understand challenges, Create visions and scenarios, Assess potential impacts, Develop solution strategies, and Realize and monitor. Its implementation is guided by five principles, namely Place-specificity, Evidence base, Integration, Equity, and Transdisciplinarity. Drawing on the empirical insights from the case study, we suggest suitable methods and a checklist of supportive procedures for applying the framework in practice. Taken together, our framework can facilitate planning NBS and provides further steps towards mainstreaming.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01365-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Recognize fish as food in policy discourse and development funding

The international development community is off-track from meeting targets for alleviating global malnutrition. Meanwhile, there is growing consensus across scientific disciplines that fish plays a crucial role in food and nutrition security. However, this ‘fish as food’ perspective has yet to translate into policy and development funding priorities. We argue that the traditional framing of fish as a natural resource emphasizes economic development and biodiversity conservation objectives, whereas situating fish within a food systems perspective can lead to innovative policies and investments that promote nutrition-sensitive and socially equitable capture fisheries and aquaculture. This paper highlights four pillars of research needs and policy directions toward this end. Ultimately, recognizing and working to enhance the role of fish in alleviating hunger and malnutrition can provide an additional long-term development incentive, beyond revenue generation and biodiversity conservation, for governments, international development organizations, and society more broadly to invest in the sustainability of capture fisheries and aquaculture.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01451-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Typologies of collaborative governance for scaling nature-based solutions in two strategic South African river systems

Scaled up planning and implementation of nature-based solutions requires better understanding of broad characteristics (typologies) of the current governance and financing landscape, collaborative approaches amidst local complexities, and factors of scalability. An inventory was compiled of water-related ecological infrastructure intervention projects in two river systems in South Africa, incorporating actor, environmental, social, and financial dimensions and benefits. Qualitative participatory analysis revealed eight typologies. Post-hoc classification analysis determined similarities and/or unique characteristics of seven quantitative typologies. Key characterising factors included the complexity/size of financial flows, complexity of partnership/governance arrangements, mandates/goals of actors, type of ecological infrastructure, trade-offs in investment in ecological/built infrastructure, and the model used for social benefits. Identified scalable typologies offer structures suited to increased investment, with other typologies offering specialised local value. A range of ecological infrastructure intervention typologies with differing biophysical and socioeconomic outcomes provide choices for investors with specific goals, and benefits to landscape actors.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01531-z.     

Minimax Regret Analysis for Municipal Solid Waste Management: An Interval-Stochastic Programming Approach

Abstract

In this study, an interval minimax regret programming (IMMRP) method is developed for the planning of municipal solid waste (MSW) management under uncertainty. It improves on the existing interval programming and minimax regret analysis methods by allowing uncertainties presented as both intervals and random variables to be effectively communicated into the optimization process. The IMMRP can account for economic consequences under all possible scenarios without any assumption on their probabilities. The developed method is applied to a case study of long-term MSW management planning under uncertainty. Multiple scenarios associated with different cost and risk levels are analyzed. Reasonable solutions are generated, demonstrating complex tradeoffs among system cost, regret level, and system-failure risk. The method can also facilitate examination of the difference between the cost incurred with identified strategy and the least cost under an ideal condition. The results can help determine desired plans and policies for waste management under a variety of uncertainties.     

Hydromorphological and socio-cultural assessment of urban rivers to promote nature-based solutions in Jarabacoa,Dominican Republic

In Latin America and the Caribbean, river restoration projects are increasing, but many lack strategic planning and monitoring. We tested the applicability of a rapid visual social–ecological stream assessment method for restoration planning, complemented by a citizen survey on perceptions and uses of blue and green infrastructure. We applied the method at three urban streams in Jarabacoa (Dominican Republic) to identify and prioritize preferred areas for nature-based solutions. The method provides spatially explicit information for strategic river restoration planning, and its efficiency makes it suitable for use in data-poor contexts. It identifies well-preserved, moderately altered, and critically impaired areas regarding their hydromorphological and socio-cultural conditions, as well as demands on green and blue infrastructure. The transferability of the method can be improved by defining reference states for assessing the hydromorphology of tropical rivers, refining socio-cultural parameters to better address river services and widespread urban challenges, and balancing trade-offs between ecological and social restoration goals.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01565-3.     

Yield gap analysis of major food crops in Pakistan: prospects for food security

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The concept of yield gap analysis can be used to meet the growing demands for agricultural products. Sustainable development goals (e.g. SDG1 and...     

Planning and governing nature-based solutions in river landscapes: Concepts,cases, and insights

Nature-based solutions (NBS), understood as actions that use ecosystem processes to address societal needs, can play important roles to future-proof river landscape development for people and nature. However, knowledge gaps exist how NBS can be planned and implemented at landscape scales. This Special Issue brings together insights and experiences from studies of assessing, planning, and implementing NBS in river landscapes in Europe and beyond. It addresses three research fields: (i) NBS effects, looking at the effectiveness of NBS to achieve ecological, social, and/or economic outcomes, (ii) NBS planning, focusing on approaches for planning and designing NBS, and (iii) NBS governance, relating to governance and business models for implementation. The twelve contributions deliver evidence on how NBS outperform conventional, rather technical solutions, provide guidance and tools to operationalize the NBS concept into practice, and showcase successful governance models of NBS in different contexts. The editorial ends with an outlook on further research needs.     

Two-Stage Fuzzy-Stochastic Robust Programming: A Hybrid Model for Regional Air Quality Management

Abstract

In this study, a hybrid two-stage fuzzy-stochastic robust programming (TFSRP) model is developed and applied to the planning of an air-quality management system. As an extension of existing fuzzy-robust programming and two-stage stochastic programming methods, the TFSRP can explicitly address complexities and uncertainties of the study system without unrealistic simplifications. Uncertain parameters can be expressed as probability density and/or fuzzy membership functions, such that robustness of the optimization efforts can be enhanced. Moreover, economic penalties as corrective measures against any infeasibilities arising from the uncertainties are taken into account. This method can, thus, provide a linkage to predefined policies determined by authorities that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken. In its solution algorithm, the fuzzy decision space can be delimited through specification of the uncertainties using dimensional enlargement of the original fuzzy constraints. The developed model is applied to a case study of regional air quality management. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained. The solutions can be used for further generating pollution-mitigation alternatives with minimized system costs and for providing a more solid support for sound environmental decisions.     

Characterizing natural degradation of tetrachloroethene (PCE) using a multidisciplinary approach

A site in mid-western Sweden contaminated with chlorinated solvents originating from a previous dry cleaning facility, was investigated using conventional groundwater analysis combined with compound-specific isotope data of carbon, microbial DNA analysis, and geoelectrical tomography techniques. We show the value of this multidisciplinary approach, as the different results supported each interpretation, and show where natural degradation occurs at the site. The zone where natural degradation occurred was identified in the transition between two geological units, where the change in hydraulic conductivity may have facilitated biofilm formation and microbial activity. This observation was confirmed by all methods and the examination of the impact of geological conditions on the biotransformation process was facilitated by the unique combination of the applied methods. There is thus significant benefit from deploying an extended array of methods for these investigations, with the potential to reduce costs involved in remediation of contaminated sediment and groundwater.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01418-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Assessing four methods for establishing native plants on urban vacant land

Urban greening increases vegetation and can restore ecological functions to urban systems. It has ties to restoration ecology, which aims to return degraded land to diverse, functional ecosystems. Both practices can be applied to maximizing ecosystem services and habitat in vacant lots, which are abundant in post-industrial cities, including Chicago, Illinois (USA), where our study took place. We tested four methods for increasing native plant diversity in vacant lots, ranging from low input to resource-intensive: seed bombing, broadcast seeding, planting plugs, and gardening. After three growing seasons, we assessed the growth of eight target native species and all non-target species. We expected that intensive treatments would have more target species stems and flowers and fewer non-target species, but we found that less-intensive options often produce equal or better results. From this, we recommend broadcast seeding as a viable, low-cost method for improving habitat and biodiversity in vacant lots.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01383-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

A functional perspective on the analysis of land use and land cover data in ecology

Assessments of large-scale changes in habitat are a priority for management and conservation. Traditional approaches use land use and land cover data (LULC) that focus mostly on “structural” properties of landscapes, rather than “functional” properties related to specific ecological processes. Here, we contend that designing functional analyses of LULC can provide important and complementary information to traditional, structural analyses. We substantiate this perspective with an example of functional changes in habitat due to industrial anthropogenic footprints in Alberta’s boreal forest, where there has been little overall forest loss (~ 6% structural change), but high levels of functional change (up to 93% functional change) for species’ habitat, biodiversity, and wildfire ignition. We discuss the methods needed to achieve functional LULC analyses, when they are most appropriate to add to structural assessments, and conclude by providing recommendations for analyses of LULC in a future of increasingly high-resolution, dynamic remote sensing data.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01434-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Issues Related to Solution Chemistry in Mercury Sampling Impingers

ABSTRACT

Analysis of Hg speciation in combustion flue gases is often accomplished in standardized sampling trains in which the sample is passed sequentially through a series of aqueous solutions to capture and separate oxidized Hg (Hg²⁺) and elemental Hg (Hg⁰). Such methods include the Ontario Hydro (OH) and the Alkaline Mercury Speciation (AMS) methods, which were investigated in the laboratory to determine whether the presence of Cl₂ and other common flue gas species can bias the partitioning of Hg⁰ to front impingers intended to isolate Hg²⁺ species. Using only a single impinger to represent the front three impingers for each method, it was found that as little as 1-ppm Cl₂ in a simulated flue gas mixture led to a bias of approximately 10-20% of Hg⁰ misreported as Hg²+ for both the OH and the AMS methods. Experiments using 100-ppm Cl₂ led to a similar bias in the OH method, but to a 30-60% bias in the AMS method. These false readings are shown to be due to liquid-phase chemistry in the impinger solutions, and not necessarily to the gas-phase reactions between Cl₂ and Hg as previously proposed. The pertinent solution chemistry causing the interference     

Managing water services in tropical regions: From land cover proxies to hydrologic fluxes

Watershed investment programs frequently use land cover as a proxy for water-based ecosystem services, an approach based on assumed relationships between land cover and hydrologic outcomes. Water flows are rarely quantified, and unanticipated results are common, suggesting land cover alone is not a reliable proxy for water services. We argue that managing key hydrologic fluxes at the site of intervention is more effective than promoting particular land-cover types. Moving beyond land cover proxies to a focus on hydrologic fluxes requires that programs (1) identify the specific water service of interest and associated hydrologic flux; (2) account for structural and ecological characteristics of the relevant land cover; and, (3) determine key mediators of the target hydrologic flux. Using examples from the tropics, we illustrate how this conceptual framework can clarify interventions with a higher probability of delivering desired water services than with land cover as a proxy.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0578-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Objectives and Design of Central California's 1995 Integrated Monitoring Study of the California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality Study

ABSTRACT

The 1995 Integrated Monitoring Study (IMS95) is part of the Phase 1 planning efforts for the California Regional PM_10/PM_2.5 Air Quality Study. Thus, the overall objectives of IMS95 are to (1) fill information gaps needed for planning an effective field program later this decade; (2) develop an improved conceptual model for pollution buildup (PM10, PM2.5, and aerosol precursors) in the San Joaquin Valley; (3) develop a uniform air quality, meteorological, and emissions database that can be used to perform initial evaluations of aerosol and fog air quality models; and (4) provide early products that can be used to help with the development of State Implementation Plans for PM_10. Consideration of the new particulate matter standards were also included in the planning and design of IMS95, although they were proposed standards when IMS95 was in the planning process.     

Using a process-based model to understand dynamics of Chinese agricultural and water technology development from 8000 bc to 1911 ad

Advancements in technology are inextricably bound to our society and the natural environment. However, how the development process of a technology system interacts with both remains unclear. We propose a process model to understand the complex dynamics among technology, society, and the environment via seven interactive elements: technologies, actors, receiving bodies, natural contexts, social contexts, temporal–spatial contexts, and outcomes. The model was applied to agricultural and water technology development in China from 8000 bc to 1911 ad. Our findings show that these elements did not play equally important roles in different periods of the development in ancient China, with social contexts most dominating during the earlier periods and both social and environmental concerns arising towards the later periods. The proposed model, by identifying the elements in the technology development that should be strengthened, can act as an analysis device to assist in reconfiguring a more sustainable socio-technological system.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01424-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

An interdisciplinary assessment of private conservation areas in the Western United States

Conservation easements are the fastest growing private conservation strategy in the United States. However, mechanisms to assess private land conservation as well as their support by the general public are not well understood. This study uses the ecosystem services framework for assessing existing private lands in Idaho and identifies areas for future conservation easements. Using conservation targets of the land trust as a guide for selecting ecosystem services, we (a) mapped the spatial delivery of conservation targets across public and private lands, (b) explored public awareness in terms of social importance and vulnerability, and (c) mapped future priority areas by characterizing conservation bundles. We found that public lands provided the highest levels of conservation targets, and we found no difference in conservation target provision between private areas and conservation easements. The spatial characterization of conservation target bundles identified potential future priority areas for conservation easements, which can guide planning of land trust conservation efforts.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01323-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Sustainability of wild plant use in the Andean Community of South America

Overexploitation is the second biggest driver of global plant extinction. Meanwhile, useful plant species are vital to livelihoods across the world, with global conservation efforts increasingly applying the concept of ‘conservation-through-use.’ However, successfully balancing conservation and biodiversity use remains challenging. We reviewed literature on the sustainability of wild-collected plant use across the countries of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia—a region of global importance for its biological and cultural richness. After applying defined search terms and a two-stage screening process, 68 articles were reviewed. The numbers which reported sustainable, unsustainable, or context-dependent outcomes were relatively even, but national differences emerged. Through narrative synthesis, we identified five key, reoccurring themes: plant biology; land tenure; knowledge, resource, and capacity; economics and market pressures; and institutional structures, policy, and legislation. Our results show the need for flexible, context-specific approaches and the importance of collaboration, with bottom-up management and conservation methods involving local communities and traditional ecological knowledge often proving most effective. Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01529-7.     

Emission Characteristics of Granulated Fuel Produced from Sewage Sludge and Coal Slime

Abstract

The neutralization of wastewater treatment residues is an issue for many countries. The European Union (EU) legal regulations have limited the use of the residues in agriculture and implemented a ban for their disposal. Therefore, urgent action should be taken to find solutions for the safe disposal of sewage sludge. The problem refers in particular to the new EU member countries, including Poland, where one can now observe an intensive development of sewage system networks and new sewage treatment plants. At the same time, these countries have few installations for thermal sewage sludge utilization (e.g., there is only one installation of that type in Poland). Simultaneously, there are many coal-fired mechanical stoker-fired boilers in some of these countries. This paper presents suggestions for the production of granulated fuel from sewage sludge and coal slime. Additionally, among others, lime was added to the fuel to decrease the sulfur compounds emission. Results are presented of research on fuel with two average grain diameters (～15 and 35 mm). The fuel with such diameters is adapted to the requirements of the combustion process taking place in a stokerfired boiler. The research was aimed at identifying the behavior of the burning fuel, with special attention paid to its emission properties (e.g., to the emissions of oxides of nitrogen [NO_x], sulfur dioxide [SO₂], and carbon mon-oxide [CO], among others). The concentration and emission values were compared with similar results obtained while burning hard coal. The combustion process was carried out in a laboratory stand where realization of the large-scale tests is possible. The laboratory stand used made simulation possible for a wide range of burning processes in mechanical stoker-fired boilers.