Multiple linear regression models of urban runo pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables

Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-o pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runo coe cient. In this study, runo quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.     

Development of EMC-based empirical model for estimating spatial distribution of pollutant loads and its application in rural areas of Korea

An integrated approach to easily calculate pollutant loads from agricultural watersheds is suggested and verified in this research. The basic concepts of this empirical tool were based on the assumption that variations in event mean concentrations (EMCs) of pollutants from a given agricultural watershed during rainstorms were only attributable to the rainfall pattern. Fifty one sets of EMC values were obtained from nine different watersheds located in the rural areas of Korea, and these data were used to develop predictive tools for the EMCs in rainfall runoff. The results of statistical tests of these formulas show that they are fairly good in predicting actual EMC values of some parameters, and useful in terms of calculating pollutant loads for any rainfall event time span such as daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly. This model was further checked in for its field applicability in a reservoir receiving stormwater after a cleanup of the sediments, covering 17 consecutive rainfall events from 1 July to 15 August in 2007. Overall the predicted values matched the observed values, indicating the feasibility of this empirical tool as a simple and useful solution in evaluating timely distribution of nonpoint source pollution loads from small rural watersheds of Korea.     

Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics

Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days （ADD）, have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency＇s Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid （TSS） discharge loads and event mean concentrations （EMC） were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data.     

Monitoring of non-point source pollutants load from a mixed forest land use

The aim of this study was to determine the unit load of NPS (non-point source) pollutants including organic variables such as BOD (biochemical oxygen demand),COD (chemical oxygen demand) and DOC (dissolved organic carbon),nitrogen and phosphorus constituents,and suspended solids (SS) and their event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff flows from a water-shed of mixed forest land use by intensive field experiments.Field monitoring for continuous measurements of rainfall,flow,and water quality was conducted over 12 storm events during 2008–2009 using automated and manual sampling methods.The EMCs of individual runoff event were estimated for each water quality constituent based on the flow rate and concentration data of runoff discharge.The average EMCs of BOD,COD,DOC,SS,TN (total nitrogen),NH 4+ -N,NO 3- -N,TP (total phosphorus),PO 43- -P from the mixed forest land were 1.794,3.498,1.462,10.269,0.862,0.044,0.634,0.034,and 0.005 mg/L,respectively.The annual unit loads of BOD,COD,DOC,SS,TN,NH 4+ -N,NO 3- -N,TP and PO 43--P were estimated as 66.9,133.2,55.5,429.8,36.5,1.6,26.9,1.3 and 0.1 kg/(ha·yr),respectively.In addition,affecting parameters on the EMCs were investigated by statistic analysis of the field data.As a result,significant correlations with precipitation,rainfall intensity,and total runoff flows were found in most constituents.     

Pollutant concentrations and pollution loads in stormwater runoff from different land uses in Chongqing

To investigate the distribution of pollutant concentrations and pollution loads in stormwater runoff in Chongqing,six typical land use types were selected and studied from August 2009 to September 2011.Statistical analysis on the distribution of pollutant concentrations in all water samples shows that pollutant concentrations fluctuate greatly in rainfall-runoff,and the concentrations of the same pollutant also vary greatly in different rainfall events.In addition,it indicates that the event mean concentrations (EMCs) of total suspended solids (TSS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) from urban traffic roads (UTR) are significantly higher than those from residential roads (RR),commercial areas (CA),concrete roofs (CR),tile roofs (TRoof),and campus catchment areas (CCA);and the EMCs of total phosphorus (TP) and NH3-N from UTR and CA are 2.35-5 and 3 times of the class-III standard values specified in the Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (GB 3838-2002).The EMCs of Fe,Pb and Cd are also much higher than the class-III standard values.The analysis of pollution load producing coefficients (PLPC) reveals that the main pollution source of TSS,COD and TP is UTR.The analysis of correlations between rainfall factors and EMCs/PLPC indicates that rainfall duration is correlated with EMCs/PLPC of TSS for TRoof and TP for UTR,while rainfall intensity is correlated with EMCs/PLPC of TP for both CR and CCA.The results of this study provide a reference for better management of non-point source pollution in urban regions.     

沂蒙山区典型小流域降雨径流的磷素输出特征

以沂蒙山区孟良崮小流域为研究对象,通过监测2010年自然降雨条件下流域出口污染物的流失状况,选取降雨量>2mm的10场降雨,分析降雨径流特征对磷素流失的影响.结果表明,次降雨径流中总磷(TP)、颗粒态全磷(PP)、水溶性全磷(DP)、水溶性无机磷(DIP)浓度变化与流量变化过程不一致,浓度峰值均出现于流量峰值之前,而磷素通量与流量变化过程较为一致,且两者呈较好的线性关系;次降雨径流TP、PP、DP、DIP的浓度最大值及平均浓度(EMCs)差异均较大,其主要受降雨量、最大雨强和平均雨强影响,与降雨历时无显著相关关系,而浓度最小值差异较小;TP以PP流失为主,DP以DIP流失为主,DIP/DP的动态变化与降雨历时、降雨量、最大雨强和平均雨强均无显著相关关系,而PP/TP的动态变化与最大雨强显著相关.DIP、DP、TP的输出受地表径流(DR)和基流(BF)的影响较大,DIP/DP的动态变化及DIP、DP、TP的EMCs与DR/TR(地表径流/总径流量)存在多项式关系,而PP/TP的动态变化和PP的EMCs受DR/TR影响较小.     

上海市城区非渗透性地面径流的污染特性研究

通过2003～2005年连续3 a对上海市城区非渗透性地表径流的采样与检测,获得了19个采样点56组径流水样污染物（COD、BOD₅、SS、NH⁺₄-N、TP、TN）浓度随降雨历时的变化过程线.据此分析了径流污染物浓度的变化规律及其与降雨特性之间的关系,计算了地表径流水质的事件平均浓度,分析了事件平均浓度的分布规律及其与降雨特性参数之间的相关关系.研究表明,上海市区非渗透性地面径流事件平均浓度中值（mg/L）为：COD 205,BOD₅ 68,SS 185,NH⁺₄-N 3.14,TP 0.40,TN 7.23,大大高于法国巴黎同类研究的结果;BOD₅与COD的比值约为0.37,明显高于发达国家相关监测的结果.结果表明,上海市城区地表径流污染严重,即使实现了理想的分流制也难以控制面源污染对城市水环境的危害.     

Unified methodology for site-characterization and sampling of highway runoff

Hydrology, roadway traffic conditions, and atmospheric deposition are three essential data categories for the planning and implementation of highway-runoff monitoring and characterization programs. Causal variables pertaining to each data category could be site specific but have been shown to correlate with runoff pollutant loads. These data categories were combined to derive statistical relationships for characterization and prioritization of the respective pollutant loads at highway runoff sites. Storm runoff data of total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solid (TDS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and total phosphorus (TP) collected from three highway sites in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA, were used to illustrate the development of site-specific highway-runoff pollutant loading models. This unified methodology provides a basis for initial assessment of the pollutant-constituent loads from highway runoff using hydrologic component variables. Improved reliability is achievable when additional traffic and/or atmospheric component variables are incorporated into the basic hydrologic regression model. In addition, operational guidance is suggested for implementing highway-runoff monitoring programs that are subject to sampling and resources constraints.     

北京城区不同下垫面降雨径流产污特征分析

通过对北京城区3类不同下垫面的降雨径流水质进行监测以及对实验数据进行皮尔森(Pearson)统计分析,探讨了沥青路面、硬质屋顶及草地屋顶的雨水径流污染物历时变化规律,计算了各场次降雨径流污染物的事件平均浓度(EMCs),分析了径流水质的主要影响因素.结果表明,相对于沥青路面与硬质屋顶,草地屋顶对除磷外的其他径流污染物浓度有明显削减作用;初期降雨径流中CODcr、NH3-N、NO3-N、TP、Pb、Cu、Zn的EMC值大多超出V类国家地表水标准,3类重金属污染物监测结果也表明城区暴雨径流污染明显;统计分析结果表明污染物质与前期晴天数、降雨历时呈现正相关关系,与降雨量、降雨强度呈现负相关关系,通过控制初期径流污染、加强清扫及屋顶绿化可以从源头减少城市降雨径流污染.     

城市降雨径流负荷计算的统计分析法

鉴于统计分析法的实用性和可操作性 ,结合一具体城市小区的地面径流特征 ,阐述了城市径流污染物负荷计算的主要内容和方法。所得结果不仅可以用于受纳水体水质变化的动态分析 ,也有助于城市暴雨管理系统的规划和设计     

城市不同材料屋面径流的污染负荷特性

分析不同材料屋面径流污染负荷特性,对于提高城市面源污染负荷估算精度和确定初期径流截流比具有重要意义.以扬州市为研究区域,通过对小青瓦屋面、水泥瓦屋面和混凝土屋面这3种屋面进行降雨径流监测,比较不同材料屋面径流污染物浓度、冲刷规律以及初期冲刷效应.结果表明暴雨事件中,小青瓦屋面径流中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、高锰酸盐指数和总悬浮物(TSS)的事件平均浓度(event mean concentration,EMC)约为水泥瓦屋面的4～9倍;小青瓦屋面径流污染物浓度变化受雨强影响程度大于水泥瓦屋面,其中TP和TSS的浓度变化趋势和雨强变化趋势的Pearson相关系数r分别为0. 853和0. 822;各材料屋面的初期冲刷强度呈水泥瓦屋面混凝土屋面小青瓦屋面,分别截流3种屋面初期径流的31. 5%、58. 0%和60. 4%,可以完成削减60. 0%的屋面径流污染负荷量的目标.如果未具体区分瓦屋面材料,用水泥瓦屋面径流污染物的EMC估算古建筑聚集区的屋面污染负荷量,将严重低估暴雨事件中TN、TP、TSS和高锰酸盐指数的实际排放量,表明精细化区分屋面材料对提高城市面源负荷估算精度具有重要意义.     

Two alternative modes for di use pollution control in Wuhan City Zoo

Pollution in urban zoos arises from diffuse and small point sources. However, its control has received little attention in past decades. Online and ofttine modes of ecological engineering technology were designed to control pollution from small point and diffuse sources in Wuhan City Zoo, China. Their characteristics and performances were investigated in sixteen runoff events from 2003 to 2005. The results showed that the two modes both improved runoff water quality and had high retention rates for water and pollutants. In the outflows, the event mean concentrations （EMCs） of total suspended solids （TSS）, chemical oxygen demand （COD）, total nitrogen （TN） and total phosphorus （TP） were reduced by 88%, 59%, 46% and 71% for the online mode, and those were 77%, 42%, 50% and 66% for the ofttine mode. The annual retention rates of pollutant loads for the online mode were 94.9%-98.5% in the three study years; those for the ofitine mode were 70.5%-86.4%. Based on calculation, the online mode was able to store the runoff of 66.7 mm rainfall completely, and the ofttine mode could store that of 31.3 mm rainfall. In addition, the online mode can provide an effective way for rainwater utilization and good habitats for aquatic wildlives, and has an excellent aesthetics value for recreationsal pastimes. The ofiline mode can save land resources and may be an effective and economical measure for diffuse pollution control in urban areas.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on nonpoint source pollutant loads from agricultural small watershed using artificial neural network

This study described the development and validation of an artificial neural network (ANN) for the purpose of analyzing the e ects of climate change on nonpoint source (NPS) pollutant loads from agricultural small watershed. The runo discharge was estimated using ANN algorithm. The performance of ANN model was examined using observed data from study watershed. The simulation results agreed well with observed values during calibration and validation periods. NPS pollutant loads were calculated from load-discharge relationship driven by long-term monitoring data. LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) model was used to generate rainfall data. The calibrated ANN model and load-discharge relationship with the generated data from LARS-WG were applied to analyze the e ects of climate change on NPS pollutant loads from the agricultural small watershed. The results showed that the ANN model provided valuable approach in estimating future runo discharge, and the NPS pollutant loads.     

突发型大气污染源位置识别反演问题的数值模拟

在突发型大气污染事件中,能否根据临时监测数据对污染源的位置进行快速识别,对于城市大气污染源的控制管理以及改善城市空气质量意义重大.为了构建突发型大气污染源位置识别的空间反演算法,本文通过分析大气应急污染监测的临时采样数据,结合污染物浓度扩散模型,随机生成污染源和计算污染物浓度的空间分布,对突发型大气污染源进行定位并与实际测量结果进行对比分析,采用蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo simulation)对相关参数进行讨论,最终构建能对突发型大气污染源进行快速估计定位的空间反演算法.研究结果表明,本文构建的空间反演算法输出的污染源坐标与实际情况相符.因此,该算法可用于突发型大气污染源位置的快速识别.     

连续极端降雨对东江流域水质影响分析

为研究连续极端降雨对饮用水源型河流东江水质的影响,分析流域近38年极端降雨事件发生特征,并结合水文水质数据初步分析其对水质的影响.基于SWAT2012建立东江流域高精度模型,研究极端降雨过程中主要污染物通量变化过程及其对水质的影响.结果表明,东江流域近38年极端降雨事件共发生173次,丰水年频次要高于其他年份,年内受气候影响主要集中在3～9月(80%),峰值主要出现在降雨量最高的6月;在空间上增城-博罗-惠州-龙门一带极端事件发生频率最高.降雨量与浊度、TP、氰化物、Pb、Fe和Mn的浓度值均呈显著正相关,其中与浊度、TP的相关系数相对较高,与p H、电导率和Zn的浓度值等呈极显著负相关,水质在一定程度上受到降雨的影响.浊度、TN、NH4+-N及TP浓度值均在暴雨径流期出现不同程度的上升趋势,其中浊度和TP浓度值变化趋势与流量呈显著一致,其峰值出现要早于流量峰值(约1 d),存在显著初期冲刷效应; p H变化过程则与流量相反,成"V"字形,可能是受上游山区降雨、土壤酸碱度及产汇流条件影响; NH4+-N受初期冲刷及洁净雨水稀释则呈现前期高,中后期低的特征.污染物负荷与径流量变化趋势较为一致,TN、NH4+-N及TP污染通量峰值要晚于(约1d)流量峰值的出现,这与污染物浓度峰值出现规律不同;污染物负荷主要在暴雨径流期呈现明显增加趋势,以59. 48%的径流量输送污染物占比达到了:COD 68. 42%、NH4+-N 54. 68%和TP 70. 20%,呈现时间短、污染物负荷冲击强等特点,对东江饮用水源水质造成较大的影响,建议通过强化初期雨水治理减少暴雨径流期对水质风险的影响.     

Non-point source analysis of a railway bridge area using statistical method：Case study of a concrete road-bed

In an effort to protect the quality of the water system, interest in non-point source pollution is increasing. Recently, studies of non-point sources pollution are continuing in relation to various land- use areas, but such studies have not been fully conducted in railway facility sites. Using monitoring data of railway bridge area with concrete road-bed, the runoff characteristics, pollutant unit loads, and first flush criteria were assessed. Railway bridge area with concrete road-bed typically show the first flush effect, and the pollutant unit load was determined to be higher than other public facilities areas. Further, the first flush criteria show an effective rainfall amount of 7 mm. In other words, from the runoff of railway facilities, considerable amounts of non-point source pollutants are occurred, indicating the need to create best management practices which are adequate for railway facility sites.     

湘中矿区不同用地类型面源Cd输出负荷的原位实验研究

受污染土壤重金属随降雨径流输出已成为河流、湖泊等水体重金属超标的主要来源之一,近年来日益受到关注.研究表明湘江中下游农田土壤重金属超标问题日益严峻,以镉超标最为严重.研究以湘中矿区Cd超标农业小流域为实验场,选取流域内水稻、旱田、荒草地这3类土地利用模式设置径流小区进行自然降雨水文过程的原位观测.结果表明,雨水pH值由春季到夏季呈升高趋势,径流水相溶解态Cd浓度呈明显的季节性差异,春季显著高于夏季,雨水pH值可显著影响土壤溶解态Cd向径流水相迁移,与径流水相溶解态Cd浓度呈负相关关系.相同降雨条件下,稻田径流水相溶解态Cd浓度显著低于旱田和荒草地,旱田与荒草地Cd面源输出负荷显著高于水稻田,由于降雨量差异,3类土地利用类型溶解态Cd面源输出负荷的季节性规律不明显.本研究可为流域尺度重金属面源输出负荷定量估算以及湘江流域水环境安全与水质预警提供数据支持和科学依据.     

低影响开发建筑小区雨水控制效果监测与评估

以某新建建筑小区为研究对象,通过构建低影响开发雨水排水系统,实现了雨水径流总量减排和峰值削减的多目标控制。采用同场次降雨对比分析的方法,在该小区6个排口（A~F）分别设置监测点,并选择下垫面类型组成相似的传统建筑小区排口（G）作为对比监测点。通过7场典型降雨监测数据的分析表明:与传统建筑小区相比,低影响开发建筑小区场次雨水径流外排总量削减率为12.1%~100%,场次雨水径流污染物（以SS计）总量削减率为69.6%~100%,峰值削减率为12.3%~100%。通过建立数学模型对典型年降雨数据进行了连续模拟,结果表明:低影响开发建筑小区平均径流外排总量削减率为77.3%,污染物总量削减率为66.4%。因此,监测和模拟结果均表明低影响开发雨水系统可有效控制雨水径流的外排总量和污染负荷。研究结果可为我国今后海绵型建筑小区建设提供技术支撑。     

2次降雨间隔时间对城市地表径流污染负荷的影响

2003～2005年通过对武汉市十里铺集水区12次降雨径流的水量和水质过程监测,研究了城市降雨径流污染负荷同2次降雨间隔时间的关系,探讨了城市地表状况、排水系统管理以及降雨特征在城市降雨径流污染负荷形成中的作用.结果表明,城市降雨径流污染负荷受2次降雨间隔时间和降雨径流量的共同影响.2次降雨间隔时间与初期降雨径流污染负荷存在显著的正相关关系 (p<0.01).汉阳地区城市地表卫生管理差和雨、污合流制的排水系统是城市径流污染负荷形成的主要原因.可以利用2次降雨间隔时间和降雨径流量预测城市降雨径流污染负荷.加强城市地表卫生管理和排水系统的管理,降低污染物在晴天累积的程度,从源头上减少污染物的数量,是有效控制城市降雨径流污染的首先途径.     

西安市某文教区典型下垫面径流污染特征

在西安市某文教区路面、屋面和绿地设置径流采样点,采用人工时间间隔采样法对2016年8月~2017年2月的3场降雨径流和2场融雪径流全程采样,测试径流过程SS、COD、TN、TP、Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd、Ni、Cr、PAHs、溶解态COD、溶解态重金属和溶解态PAHs的浓度以及颗粒物粒径d₅₀,研究各下垫面降雨径流污染水平及出流规律,比较不同下垫面降雨径流和融雪径流污染特征.结果表明,各类下垫面降雨径流主要污染物均为SS、COD、TN、Pb、Cr,路面和绿地径流中SS的EMCs均超过《污水综合排放标准》二级标准,3类下垫面降雨径流COD、TN、Pb、Cr的EMCs均超出《地表水环境质量标准》Ⅲ类标准,PAHs与国内相关研究相比属于中等污染水平,路面、屋面和绿地径流的EMC分别为266.8~389.8ng/L、254.9~303.0ng/L和231.2ng/L.路面径流SS、COD、Zn、Pb、Cu、PAHs浓度高于屋面径流,而TN、TP、Cr等指标则相反,表明径流中TN、TP、Cr主要源于大气干湿沉降,而交通排污对SS、COD、Zn、Pb、Cu、PAHs等有较大输入贡献.3类下垫面降雨径流污染浓度输出规律差异显著,路面径流污染物初期浓度较大,受雨期交通排污影响中后段波动剧烈,屋面径流污染物浓度随径流历时持续降低且趋于稳定,绿地径流污染物浓度沿程变化相对较小.降雨强度对总量污染物浓度输出的影响大于溶解态污染物,表现为d₅₀与降雨强度呈现良好的相关性.因降雪期间污染物持续累积且径流量较小,路面融雪径流污染物浓度远大于降雨径流,而屋面融雪径流因流量较小导致携带污染物的能力较弱故水质优于降雨径流.