1988－2018年广西北海红树林蓝碳储量变化分析

蓝碳指储存在红树林、盐沼、海草床生态系统中的碳,约占所有生态系统碳储量的55%。本文基于1988－2018年广西北海的遥感图像,获取了时间间隔为五年的北海红树林面积变化数据,据此估算了蓝碳储量及碳库各主要组成部分的变化量。1988－2018年,北海红树林面积由459 ha增长至3320 ha,年度增长率为6.8%。该区红树林总面积保持增加趋势,1998－2003年,毁林挖塘行为导致面积减少150 ha。根据IPCC国家温室气体清单,计算了1988－2018年北海红树林总碳库量,红树林湿地无变化的区域碳储量稳定增加,由1988年的32064 t增长到2018年的214830 t,年度增长率为6.5%。采挖活动导致的土壤碳储量减少最多,其中,1998－2003年的损失量高达82392 t。本文首次计算了因人类活动导致的红树林蓝碳损失,并尝试进行了IPCC参数的地方化研究。该研究可为红树林生态系统修复以及蓝碳捕捉、转移、固定研究提供数据支撑,更好地服务于碳中和碳达峰国家战略。     

广东省土地利用驱动下红树林潜在生境预测

为探索土地利用变化对红树林潜在生境分布的影响,融合MaxEnt模型和Dyna-CLUE模型,建立了土地利用驱动下红树林生境变化的定量预测方法.以中国红树林分布面积最大的广东省作为研究区,利用MaxEnt模型模拟红树林在自然条件下的理论适生区,采用Dyna-CLUE模型预测2030年的三种土地利用变化情景,最后将模拟的土地利用格局作为限制条件估算未来可供红树林生境分布的空间.结果表明,2020年广东省红树林潜在生境面积约34531hm²,2030年趋势情景下湿地将减少58.61%,红树林潜在生境面积将退化至24375hm²;可持续发展情景下通过改进土地利用策略并开展一定规模的退塘还湿,红树林潜在生境面积将增加至38125hm²;生态保护情景下,如能开展全面的生态保护和恢复,红树林潜在生境面积可达到47525hm².本研究的研究方法可有效预测不同海岸带土地利用驱动下红树林潜在生境的空间变化.研究结果发现,不同土地利用政策会对红树林潜在生境分布造成明显影响;通过改进政策,可显著提升红树林潜在生境的面积和完整性.本结论可为区域红树林保护与生境修复的空间规划及政策制定等提供科学支持.     

海岸带蓝碳生态系统碳库规模与投融资机制

气候变化已成为当前各国面临的严峻挑战之一,通过“碳减排”和“碳增汇”实现碳中和是我国应对气候变化的关键途径。红树林、盐沼和海草床等海岸带蓝碳生态系统具有巨大的、长期可持续的碳汇功能,因而,保护和修复海岸带生态系统是具有可操作性的生态增汇途径之一。本文探究了中国红树林、盐沼和海草床等典型海岸带蓝碳生态系统碳库规模及其经济价值,并对浙江省霓屿红树林湿地和上海市鹦鹉洲盐沼湿地两个海岸带滨海湿地恢复区的碳汇能力开展调查和评估。结果表明,通过海岸带生态修复扩增蓝碳是实现碳中和的有效途径。研究结果可为面向碳中和的海岸带生态系统恢复及蓝碳交易体系的建立提供理论基础和数据支撑。     

Carbon forestry economic mitigation potential in India,by land classification

Carbon forestry mitigation potential estimates at the global-level are limited by the absence or simplicity of national-level estimates, and similarly national-level estimates are limited by absence of regional-level estimates. The present study aims to estimate the mitigation potential for a large diverse country such as India, based on the GTAP global land classification system of agro-ecological zones (AEZs), as well the Indian AEZ system. The study also estimates the implications of carbon price incentive (US$50 and $100) on mitigation potential in the short-, medium- and long-term, since afforestation and reforestation (A & R) is constrained by lack of investment and financial incentives. The mitigation potential for short and long rotation plantations and natural regeneration was estimated using the GCOMAP global forest model for two land area scenarios. One scenario included only wastelands (29 Mha), and the second enhanced area scenario, included wastelands plus long fallow and marginal croplands (54 Mha). Under the $100 carbon price case, significant additional area (3.6 Mha under the wasteland scenario and 6.4 Mha under the enhanced area scenario) and carbon mitigation is gained in the short-term (2025) compared to the baseline when using the GTAP land classification system. The area brought under A & R increases by 85–100% for the $100 carbon price compared to $50 carbon price in the short-term, indicating the effectiveness of higher carbon price incentives, especially in the short-term. A comparison of estimates of mitigation potential using GTAP and Indian AEZ land classification systems showed that in the short-term, 35% additional C-stock gain is achieved in the $100 carbon price case in the enhanced area scenario of the Indian AEZ system. This difference highlights the role of the land classification system adopted in estimation of aggregate mitigation potential estimates, particularly in the short-term. Uncertainty involved in the estimates of national-level mitigation potential needs to be reduced, by generating reliable estimates of carbon stock gain and losses, and cost and benefit data, for land use sector mitigation options at a scale disaggregated enough to be relevant for national mitigation planning.     

中国红树林湿地资源及其保护

红树林是我国海岸湿地类型之一，自然分布于海南、广西、广东、福建、台湾等省区。现有面积约1．5万hm^2，包括26种真红树，11种半红树。中国红树林湿地直接经济价值不高，而防浪护岩、维持海岸生物多样性和渔业资源、净化水质、美化环境等生态环境功能显，属于特别容易被价值低估的海岩生态关键区。1960年代以来的毁林转海造田或盐田，毁林围塘养殖，毁林围海搞城市建设等人类不合理开发活动，使红树林面积剧减，环境恶化，红树林湿地资源濒危，急需加强管理和保护。现已建成各级红树林自然保护区18个，还需要吸收科学家积极参与，加强科学研究和宣传教育，以尽快扭转退化趋势，实现红树林湿地生态系统的恢复和可持续发展。     

Is climate-smart conservation feasible in Europe? Spatial relations of protected areas,soil carbon,and land values

The expectations on protected areas to deliver not only biodiversity conservation but also to provide an array of different ecosystem services rise. Sequestration and storage of carbon are promising services that protected areas may provide. This study integrates spatially explicit data on terrestrial Natura 2000 sites, soil organic carbon, and agricultural land values to estimate the potential for climate-smart conservation planning in the European Union. The objectives of this study are to analyse spatial relations between protected areas soil carbon content, and land values on the European Union's land area as well as to locate and quantify the proportion of land with high carbon and low economic value within and outside protected areas. We apply a unique interdisciplinary framework with methods ranging from analyses based on geographical information systems, agricultural economics to statistics. Findings indicate that there is a significant overlap between Natura 2000 sites and regions with high carbon content across Europe. Statistical analyses show that carbon-rich regions have significantly lower land values than other areas. Our results suggest that biodiversity protection and mitigation of climate change through conservation of soil carbon could be simultaneously achieved in Europe's protected areas and beyond. We conclude that there is a notable potential for climate-smart conservation in Europe that needs further investigation.     

土壤碳储存功能价值评估方法探讨——以三江平原湿地土壤为例

天然湿地土壤具有碳储存的功能,能够减缓全球气候变化。以三江平原湿地土壤为例,提出储碳功能价值评估方法的分类体系,介绍了不同方法的基本原理、适用条件和局限性,并根据理论上的合理性、方法上的简便可行性、现实的不确定性以及对于当地的适用性等原则对各种方法进行评价和排序,试图从多种货币化方法的评价结果中找到一个比较合理的单位储碳价值量取值范围,用来估算湿地土壤的储碳价值。评价对单位储碳功能的价值估算取5～25US＄/t碳,三江平原湿地土壤储碳总价值为31.0×108～155.2×108US＄,农业开发造成的湿地储碳功能的经济损失为10.8×108～53.8×108US＄,平均每年每hm₂的碳损失约为4.3～21.5US＄。     

海南东寨港红树林湿地污染监测与评价研究

近年来海南东寨港红树林湿地生态环境受到严重污染,加之从2012年来以有孔团水虱为主的海洋污损动物在保护区内大面积爆发,使红树林遭受严重破坏。因此对海南东寨港红树林湿地进行污染监测、污染源分析及生态系统健康诊断、评估、预警是非常必要的。本文在对东寨港红树林湿地连续5 a监测和污染调查的基础上,采用单因子污染指数法、内梅罗指数法和综合营养状态指数法评价海南东寨港红树林自然保护区的污染状况和变化特征,探究其主要污染因子及其成因,并根据评价结果对红树林湿地生态系统的恢复提出相应对策与建议。研究结果显示在近5 a的时间里海南东寨港红树林湿地经历了从2013年—2015年污染程度逐渐减轻,到2016年—2017年污染情况再次严重的过程。根据三种污染评价方法得出近两年塔市、山尾村、三江镇区域水质污染和富营养化情况最严重,水体污染以有机质和氮污染为主。相关管理部门应加强监管并采取相应措施,控制高位池养虾数量,实施退塘还林及虾塘养殖废水处理等措施,尽快使海南东寨港红树林生态系统得以恢复。     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

Analyzing the efficacy of subtropical urban forests in offsetting carbon emissions from cities

Urban forest management and policies have been promoted as a tool to mitigate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This study used existing CO₂ reduction measures from subtropical Miami-Dade and Gainesville, USA and modeled carbon storage and sequestration by trees to analyze policies that use urban forests to offset carbon emissions. Field data were analyzed, modeled, and spatially analyzed to compare CO₂ sequestered by managing urban forests to equivalent amounts of CO₂ emitted in both urban areas. Urban forests in Gainesville have greater tree density, store more carbon and present lower per-tree sequestration rates than Miami-Dade as a result of environmental conditions and urbanization patterns. Areas characterized by natural pine-oak forests, mangroves, and stands of highly invasive trees were most apt at sequestering CO₂. Results indicate that urban tree sequestration offsets CO₂ emissions and, relative to total city-wide emissions, is moderately effective at 3.4 percent and 1.8 percent in Gainesville and Miami-Dade, respectively. Moreover, converting available non-treed areas into urban forests would not increase overall CO₂ emission reductions substantially. Current CO₂ sequestration by trees was comparable to implemented CO₂ reduction policies. However, long-term objectives, multiple ecosystem services, costs, community needs, and preservation of existing forests should be considered when managing trees for climate change mitigation and other ecosystem services.     

Mitigation,adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets

This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the assumptions and methods used, although some general conclusions can be drawn. Studies of economic impacts suggest that average market effects in the United States may range from +$1.3 to +7.4 billion per year by the middle of the next century. Estimates of the cost of sequestering carbon have generally increased over the last 10 years, with a current range of <1–73 million metric t per year of additional sequestration from afforestation projects costing $5–66 per metric t. Estimates of the potential for alternative methods for carbon sequestration, such as product markets and recycling, are as large as afforestation estimates, with up to 50 million metric tons per year of additional storage considered possible. Cost estimates have not been developed for these alternative methods, however.     

Methodological issues in forestry mitigation projects: a case study of Kolar district

There is a need to assess climate change mitigation opportunities in forest sector in India in the context of methodological issues such as additionality, permanence, leakage and baseline development in formulating forestry mitigation projects. A case study of forestry mitigation project in semi-arid community grazing lands and farmlands in Kolar district of Karnataka, was undertaken with regard to baseline and project scenario development, estimation of carbon stock change in the project, leakage estimation and assessment of cost-effectiveness of mitigation projects. Further, the transaction costs to develop project, and environmental and socio-economic impact of mitigation project was assessed. The study shows the feasibility of establishing baselines and project C-stock changes. Since the area has low or insignificant biomass, leakage is not an issue. The overall mitigation potential in Kolar for a total area of 14,000 ha under various mitigation options is 278,380 t C at a rate of 20 t C/ha for the period 2005–2035, which is approximately 0.67 t C/ha/year inclusive of harvest regimes under short rotation and long rotation mitigation options. The transaction cost for baseline establishment is less than a rupee/t C and for project scenario development is about Rs. 1.5–3.75/t C. The project enhances biodiversity and the socio-economic impact is also significant.

Integrated scenario modelling of energy,greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.     

Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia,Canada

Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO₂e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017–2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC’s greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO₂e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.     

城市红树林生态系统健康评价与管理对策——以粤港澳大湾区为例

为解明粤港澳大湾区城市红树林生态系统健康状况,基于PSR (压力-状态-响应)模型和层次分析法,构建了城市红树林生态系统健康评价指标体系,对大湾区的香港米埔、深圳福田、广州南沙和珠海淇澳岛4个典型城市红树林进行生态系统健康评价,识别健康问题并提出管理对策.结果表明:红树林生态系统健康指数(EHI)为淇澳岛(3.05,健康)>米埔(3.03,健康)>南沙(2.54,亚健康)>福田(2.13,亚健康).就压力指标而言,米埔和福田红树林的自然压力源为病虫害和生物入侵,人为压力源为人口、经济相关指标及城镇生活污水排放,福田还受到工业废水排放的压力.就状态指标而言,红树林受海水营养盐污染严重,南沙和淇澳岛红树林存在严重的有机污染和重金属污染;红树植物多样性(除南沙红树林外)和大型底栖动物生物多样性偏低,但鸟类生物多样性处于较高水平.就响应指标而言,福田和南沙红树林由于面积小而生态服务功能偏低,南沙红树林的管理水平不足.粤港澳大湾区城市红树林存在的主要健康问题包括生态失衡导致的病虫害与生物入侵、受纳外源污染导致的环境污染、栖息地破坏导致的生物多样性下降的共性问题及自身特征与管护水平差异导致的其它个性问题.针对上述健康问题,建议:以缓解生态失衡为目标高效监测并推广基于自然法则的生态恢复,以源头控制为根本整体改善环境质量,以保护生物多样性为重点提高红树林生态系统稳定性,因地制宜充分发挥城市红树林经济-社会-生态效益.     

自然保护地生态系统服务价值评估研究进展

自然保护地具有重大的生态效益和经济效益,近年来自然保护地生态系统服务价值评估已成为当前生态学和环境经济学的研究热点.通过系统地回顾自然保护地生态系统服务价值评估的历史沿革,从空间尺度、研究对象、评估方法、评估指标等方面综述了相关的研究进展.总体来看,国内外相关案例已基本覆盖了国家、行政区域、自然地理单元和单个自然保护地等不同空间尺度;分别以森林、湿地、草地和荒漠等代表性生态系统类型自然保护地开展了研究;多采用价值系数与物质量评估两种方法;同时,不同自然保护地在供给、支持、调节、文化等四大类服务的指标选择上各有不同.自然保护地生态系统服务价值评估工作仍存在标准体系不完善、时空动态研究不足、未充分考虑利益相关方等问题,建议未来我国自然保护地生态系统服务价值评估从以下几个方面加强研究:①加强基础性研究,探索自然保护地生态系统服务的生态学机制;②开展各指标的长期动态监测,建立健全不同类型自然保护地生态系统服务价值评估指标体系和技术方法;③加强时空动态分析及影响因素分析,运用动态模拟模型预测价值的变化;④充分考虑不同利益相关方之间的权衡,使其在生态补偿研究中发挥重要作用;⑤加强评估结果在自然保护地规划、建设、管理、保护等各方面的应用研究.      

基于高分辨率卫星影像的广西红树林面积监测与群落调查

基于国产多源高分辨率卫星数据,利用遥感（RS）、地理信息系统（GIS）、全球定位系统（GPS）技术结合野外勘查的方式,对广西红树林面积进行遥感监测并对其群落类型进行野外勘查。结果表明：截至2013年12月,广西红树林总面积为7 243.15 hm²,共有斑块2 793个,平均斑块面积为2.59 hm²,其中最大斑块面积为173.67 hm²。北海市红树林面积、斑块数及比例分别为3 263.66 hm²、905个、45.06%;钦州市为2 097.41 hm²、1 259个、28.96%;防城港市为1 882.08 hm²、629个、25.98%。红树林群落类型有白骨壤、白骨壤+桐花树、桐花树、桐花树+白骨壤、木榄-白骨壤等共21种,其中面积及比例从大到小前7位排列分别是白骨壤群落（3 022.96 hm²,41.74%）、桐花树群落（2 383.81 hm²,32.91%）、白骨壤+桐花树群落（405.42 hm²,5.60%）、木榄-白骨壤群落（303.93 hm²,4.20%）、红海榄-白骨壤群落（214.43 hm²,2.96%）、无瓣海桑-桐花树群落（138.46 hm²,1.91%）、木榄-桐花树群落（128.40 hm²,1.77%）。通过对比发现,不同研究者、影像数据源和研究方法,会使得同一区域红树林面积监测结果存在较大差异。     

基于相对海平面变化的广西茅尾海红树林面积稳定性评估

红树林面积的稳定性评估对于保护和利用广西茅尾海红树林的作用很大。本文分析了自2000年到2100年全球平均海平面上升、地壳上升、潮滩沉积、潮滩坡度和海堤对茅尾海红树林面积的影响,建立了红树林边界位置的预测模型;利用预测模型估算2100年红树林边界的高程数据,确定红树林边界的空间位置。根据分析,本文得到以下结论:（1）当全球平均海平面以低模式上升时,茅尾海东北区段红树林面积大量增加,西北、东南和西南区段红树林面积中量增加。当全球平均海平面以中模式上升时,东北区段红树林面积大量增加,东南区段和西南区段少量增加,西北区段稳定。当全球平均海平面以高模式上升时,西北区段红树林面积大量减少,东北区段中量减少,东南区段和西南区段稳定。西北、东北区段红树林面积减少将降低红树林的生态功能和资源价值,务必引起特别关注。（2）茅尾海西北、东北区段红树林面积减少的主要原因,是全球平均海平面以高模式上升引起的红树林向海边界、向陆地方向的移动。（3）当全球平均海平面以高模式上升时,茅尾海西北区段和东北区段应采取适量拆除海堤或后撤海堤的措施,增加向陆边界一侧红树林的面积,以抵消向海边界一侧红树林面积的减少。     

An approach and preliminary model of integrating ecological and economic constraints of environmental quality in the Guayas River estuary, Ecuador

We describe conceptual and simulation models of land use within the intertidal zone of the Guayas River estuary to quantify the contribution of mangrove wetlands to maintaining environmental quality of a tropical estuary. The goal of this exercise is to demonstrate the important consideration of ecological constraints in determining economic and management decisions; and how modeling can be used to quantify impacts of land use such as loss of mangrove wetlands on environmental quality. Our conceptual model treats solar energy, river flow, and tides as forcing functions that control the properties of estuarine ecosystems, but also describes market forces and cultural policies as constraints on properties of socioeconomic systems. The controversy of coastal resource management in Ecuador centers around the relative impacts of shrimp pond construction and management as negative feedbacks to the environmental quality of the Guayas River estuary. Unique oceanographic processes and land use changes contribute to complex issues of water and habitat quality in this tropical estuary, the largest estuarine complex on the Pacific coast of South America. A dynamic box model was developed for the estuary and calibrated with data collected from a 14 month survey of water quality parameters throughout the estuary. Scenarios included conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds in three regions of the estuary, and the construction of a dam by varying three different rates of river discharge at 100, 50 and 10% of 1989 base flow. Good water quality is maintained by the low residence time of water in the estuary (11 d) because of seasonally high river flow and tidal exchange. With a 90% reduction of mangrove forests in the estuary caused by shrimp pond construction, total nitrogen concentrations increased 5 fold. However, as river discharge decreased to 10%, the same construction caused a 60 fold increase in nitrogen concentrations to 250 μM. Increases in nitrogen concentrations were higher in the upper estuary region, with much less change in the lower estuary. Thus the sensitivity of environmental quality to changes in land use in the intertidal and upland zone are linked to the hydrography of the estuary and is site specific. In the future, the combinations of these ecological models together with economic analyses of the goods and services of mangroves may provide better techniques to evaluate the economic impacts of specific coastal zone management decisions.     

A new way of carbon accounting emphasises the crucial role of sustainable timber use for successful carbon mitigation strategies

The roles of forest management and the use of timber for energy in the global carbon cycle are discussed. Recent studies assert that past forest management has been accelerating climate change, for example in Europe. In addition, the increasing tendency to burn timber is an international concern. Here, we show a new way of carbon accounting considering the use of timber as a carbon neutral transfer into a pool of products. This approach underlines the robust, positive carbon mitigation effects of sustainable timber harvesting. Applying this new perspective, sustainable timber use can be interpreted not as a removal but a prevention of carbon being converted within the cycle of growth and respiration. Identifying timber use as a prevention rather than a removal leads to the understanding of timber use as being no source of carbon emissions of forests but as a carbon neutral transfer to the product pool. Subsequently, used timber will then contribute to carbon emissions from the pool of forest products in the future. Therefore, timber use contributes to carbon mitigation by providing a substantial delay of emissions. In a second step, the carbon model is applied to results of a previous study in which different timber price scenarios were used to predict timber harvests in Bavarian forests (Germany). Thus, the influence of the economic dimension “timber price” on the ecological dimension carbon sequestration was derived. It also shows that these effects are stable, even if an increasing tendency of burning timber products for producing energy is simulated. Linking an economic optimization to a biophysical model for carbon mitigation shows how the impact of management decisions on the environment can be derived. Overall, a sustainably managed system of forests and forest products contributes to carbon mitigation in a positive, stable way, even if the prices for (energy) wood rise substantially.