珠江三角洲森林的生物量和生产力研究

利用森林资源清查资料和经过实地校正的相关森林生物量和生产力估算方程,对珠江三角洲森林植被的生物量和生产力进行了研究。结果表明,珠江三角洲森林的生物量为132 404 963 t,总净生产量为26 273 769 t.a-1。区域森林生物量主要分布在珠江三角洲的外围,其中,马尾松林和常绿阔叶林的生物量占区域森林总生物量的52.18%;生态公益林的生物量只到达用材林的48.68%;中幼龄林生物量所占比例很大,总体质量不高,但如果现有森林得到更好地保护和管理,珠江三角洲地区的森林会有较大的发展潜力,并在维护区域生态环境上起着主导作用。     

Using the ECLPSS software environment to build a spatially explicit component-based model of ozone effects on forest ecosystems

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ecological processes by providing a growing library of reusable interchangeable components and automating many modeling tasks. To build a model, a user selects components from the library, and then writes new components as needed. Some of these components represent specific ecological processes, such as how environmental factors influence the growth of individual trees. Other components provide simulation support such as reading and writing files in various formats to allow inter-operability with other software. The framework manages components and variables, the order of operations, and spatial interactions. The framework provides only simulation support; it does not include ecological functions or assumptions. This separation allows biologists to build models without becoming computer scientists, while computer scientists can improve the framework without becoming ecologists. The framework is designed to operate on multiple platforms and be used across networks via a World Wide Web-based user interface. ECLPSS is designed for use with both single processor computers for small models, and multiple processors in order to simulate large regions with complex interactions among many individuals or ecological compartments. To test Version 1.0 of ECLPSS, we created a model to evaluate the effect of tropospheric ozone on forest ecosystem dynamics. This model is a reduced-form version of two existing models: , which represents an individual tree, and , which represents forest stand growth and succession. This model demonstrates key features of ECLPSS, such as the ability to examine the effects of cell size and model structure on model predictions.     

A Bayesian strategy for combining predictions from empirical and process-based models

We present a strategy for using an empirical forest growth model to reduce uncertainty in predictions made with a physiological process-based forest ecosystem model. The uncertainty reduction is carried out via Bayesian melding, in which information from prior knowledge and a deterministic computer model is conditioned on a likelihood function. We used predictions from an empirical forest growth model G-HAT in place of field observations of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in a deciduous temperate forest ecosystem. Using Bayesian melding, priors for the inputs of the process-based forest ecosystem PnET-II were propagated through the model, and likelihoods for the PnET-II output ANPP were calculated using the G-HAT predictions. Posterior distributions for ANPP and many PnET-II inputs obtained using the G-HAT predictions largely matched posteriors obtained using field data. Since empirical growth models are often more readily available than extensive field data sets, the method represents a potential gain in efficiency for reducing the uncertainty of process-based model predictions when reliable empirical models are available but high-quality data are not.     

Simulating dynamics of managed monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in south China

The forest succession model FORDYN is developed based on TREEDEV model. TREEDEV is a process-based tree growth model, that calculates tree growth based on carbon and nitrogen balance, and is calculated using on the photo-production of leaves, respiration, nitrogen content of all organisms and that in soil, and other losses due to respiration, litter and renewal of stems, branches, leaves and roots. In the FORDYN model succession is divided into three phases called early, middle and late succession, and the transition between these three succession phases is distinguished by a difference in leaf area index. As a verification of the model we used the characteristics and available data of a monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve (DHS-BR). The model was validated with natural forest data. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed in which 30 independent variables were varied and analyzed in connection with their influence on 16 dependent variables describing forest conditions. The simulation results describe the changes in total biomass, carbon and nitrogen change in plant–litter–soil system of an undisturbed monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest during succession. We compared these findings with simulation in which different logging management strategies were used. The results show that having a longer logging cycle, delaying the first logging time and a smaller logging fraction the scenario can contribute to a sustainable forest development, while still having a positive economic yield.     

Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting,based on a cellular automata model: A case study of Guangzhou,China

Forecasting changes in urban ecological security could be important for the maintenance or improvement of the urban ecological environment. However, there are few references in this field and no landmark research work has been reported, particularly quantitative research. A forecasting model for ecological security based on cellular automata (CA) was developed using preliminary spatial data from an ecological security assessment of Guangzhou conducted previously (1990–2005). The model was constrained using transformation rules based upon proposed planning for 2010–2020. A simulation accuracy of 72.09% was acquired. Using a one-bit assessment grid for 2005 as the starting state for the simulation, the model was used to forecast ecological security for 2020. This revealed that although the ecological security status would be improved relative to current trends, there would still be an overall decline in ecological security over the next 15 years. Even if new urban plans were implemented, landscape pattern analysis suggested a more scattered and homogenous distribution in the urban landscape of Guangzhou and significant variation in landscape characteristics among districts. This suggests that further measures must be adopted to reverse the current trends in Guangzhou's ecological security. The model highlights the need to make ecological protection an integral part of urban planning. This study demonstrates the potential of CA models for forecasting ecological security. Such models could make an important contribution to decision-making for regional governors and to the development of urban planning incorporating assessment and prediction of ecological security.     

Biogeochemical model (BGC-ES) and its basin-level application for evaluating ecosystem services under forest management practices

It is important for humans to live in harmony with ecosystems. Evaluation of ecosystem services (ES) may be helpful in achieving this objective. In Japan, forest ecosystems need to be re-evaluated to prevent their degradation due to lack of forest management.In order to evaluate the effects of forest management on forest ES, we developed a process-based biogeochemical model to estimate water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles in forest ecosystems (BGC-ES). This model consists of four submodels: biomass, water cycle, carbon-nitrogen (CN) cycles, and forest management. The biomass submodel can calculate growth of forest biomass under forest managements.Several parameters of the model were calibrated using data from observations of evapotranspiration flux and quality of stream flow in forests. The model results were compared with observations of runoff water from a dam catchment site and with carbon flux observations.Our model was coupled with a basin-level GIS database of forests. Evaluations under various forest management scenarios were carried out for forests in a basin contained in the Ise Bay basin (Chubu region, Japan), where plantations (artificial forests) seemed to have degraded from poor forest management.Comparing our simulation results with those of forests without management in the basin, we found that the amounts of absorbed carbon and runoff were larger in managed forests. In addition, the volume of harvested timber was larger and its quality (diameter) was better in managed forests. Changes of ES within the various scenarios were estimated for their economic value and were compared with the cost of forest management.     

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands.     

江苏沿海化工快速发展下区域生态风险评价模型研究

区域生态风险评价是区域建立生态风险预警机制,实现有效生态风险管理的基础,而其中区域生态风险评价模型的构建是关键。本研究在分析江苏沿海化工风险源及危害性、风险受体以及风险相应能力的基础上,根据科学性、可操作性、动态性与静态性相结合、定性与定量相结合以及因地制宜的原则,选取代表性强、表征明显、简明且易于统计量化的要素和因子,在传统数学模式的基础上,运用系统动力学、景观生态学以及GIS分析、引入区域化工风险压力、化工园区风险度、区域环境敏感指数等指数,采用Delphi、AHP法构建了包括化工风险压力指数、区域环境状态指数、区域生态风险管理指数的区域化工生态风险的多指标综合评价模型。建立的评价模型为研究区域尺度政策实施的生态风险状态及发展趋势提供了一种思路。     

小流域可持续发展能力的生态足迹法分析--以重庆市万州区五桥河流域为例

以三峡库区五桥河流域为例,将生态足迹理论与方法运用于小流域尺度的可持续发展研究中,采用问卷调查的数据获取方式,保守地估算了该区居民的生态足迹需求和生态足迹供给,并与其他国家(地区)作比较,分析了该区的资源利用效益.结果表明,五桥河流域人均生态足迹需求为1.020 7 hm2·人-1,而生态承载力仅为0.465 2 hm2·人-1,生态赤字达到-0.555 5 hm2·人-1;生态足迹需求及亏缺主要源于林地和草地类产品的消费;五桥河流域生态足迹赤字已经高于全球水平(-0.4 hm2·人-1),资源利用效率仅为世界平均水平的12%,该区发展呈相对不可持续状态.     

Modeling net primary production of a fast-growing forest using a light use efficiency model

As interest grows in the quantification of global carbon cycles, Light Use Efficiency (LUE) model predictions of the forest net primary production (NPP) are being developed at an accelerating rate. Such models can provide useful predictions at large scales, but evaluating their performance has been difficult. In this study, a remote sensing-based LUE model was established to estimate forest NPP. Using the forest inventory data (FID) from the regional forest inventory survey in China and established allometric biomass equations, we calculated the biomass, the biomass increment, and the NPP of Eucalyptus urophylla (E. urophylla) plantation plots in the forestry jurisdiction of the Leizhou Forestry Bureau, Southern China. The FID-based NPP and the NPP from LUE model predictions were then compared to each other. Results show that the NPP from model predictions at a spatial resolution of 30 m × 30 m varied from 0 to 265 gC/(m² month) and showed regional differences. In addition, the stand age had variable effects on the average individual biomass of the E. urophylla plantation plots. The average individual biomass of the young and mid-age forests increased exponentially and logarithmically with the stand age (R² = 0.9178 and R² = 0.8683), respectively. For young and mid-age E. urophylla plantation plots, the LUE model-predicted NPP was fairly consistent with the FID-based NPP, but the model predictions of the NPP were higher than the estimates from FID. Through the analysis of the causes of uncertainty and the possible reasons for the discrepancy between the model-based NPP and FID-based NPP, the FID-derived estimates provided a foundation for model evaluation.     

茂名小良桉树人工林生态经济效益分析与评价

利用模糊数学的方法,通过对小良的实地调杳和专家走访,挑选了30个对小良桉林生态经济影响较大的因子.建立了评价因子指标体系和五个评价等级,采用二个层次的综合评价模型对小良桉林生态经济效益首次进行了定量的综合评价.评价结果是:现在小良桉林生态经济效益为一般.总体态势是:16%为好,26%为较好,31%为一般.23%为较差,4%为差.综合评价得分为79.85分,介于一般和良好之间,这说明在小良桉树人工林的发展过程中存在许多显性的、潜在的问题,如果还不注意合理利用林地资源,就会使森林资源变为不可更新资源,不可持续利用.因此,科学客观地分析与评价小良桉林产业生态经济效益,为区域可持续发展提供科学依据和发展良策,实现生态和经济的综合调控具有现实意义.     

基于生态过程模型和森林清查数据的森林生长量估算对比研究

利用遥感驱动的生态过程模型-Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator （BEPS）、2001-2006年国家森林资源连续清查数据（一类清查-样地尺度）和2003-2009年森林资源规划设计调查数据（二类调查-区域尺度）,分别计算江西省吉安市的森林生态系统生长量,从不同空间尺度和森林类型对3种数据源估算的森林生长量进行了分析。结果表明,样点尺度上,BEPS模型模拟的森林生长量（4.18 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）低于群落生长量（5.86 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）,与乔木层生长量（4.29 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）基本一致,模型模拟结果与两者的拟合R2分别为0.48和0.43。区域尺度上,BEPS模型模拟、二类调查数据计算的群落及乔木层生长量分别为4.65、4.36和3.34 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1,BEPS模型估算的吉安市各县森林总生长量与二类调查数据计算的群落、乔木层生长总量拟合R2分别达0.84和0.83。一类清查数据计算结果高于二类清查数据计算结果,BEPS模型模拟森林生长量分别与基于一类清查数据计算的乔木层生长量及二类调查数据群落生长量较为一致。从研究区两种主要森林类型来看,常绿阔叶林年平均生长量高于常绿针叶林,常绿针叶林与模型估算结果差异小于常绿阔叶林。最后利用模型估算了研究区2001-2010年平均生长量,为认识研究区的森林生长空间分布差异及更新森林生物量提供支持。     

Validation of a multispecies forest dynamics model using 50-year growth from Eucalyptus forests in eastern Australia

One of the key problems confronting ecological forecasting is the validation of computer models. Here we report successful validation of a forest dynamics model Ecosystem Dynamics Simulator (EDS), adapted from the JABOWA-II forest succession model. This model and many variants derived from it have successfully simulated growth dynamics of uneven-aged mixed forests under changing environment with a moderate amount of input data. But rarely are adequate time-series data available for quantitative model validation. This study tested the performance of EDS in projecting the tree density, tree diameter at breast height (dbh), tree height, basal area and aboveground biomass of uneven-aged, mixed species sclerophyll forests in St. Mary state forests of eastern Australia. The test data were collected between 1951 and 2005. Every tree was uniquely numbered, tagged and measured in consecutive re-measurements. Projected growth attributes were compared with those observed in an independent validation dataset. The model produced satisfactory projections of tree density (91.7%), dbh (92.3%), total tree height (82.8%), basal area (89.3%) and aboveground biomass (87.6%) compared to the observed attributes. These results suggest that the EDS model can provide reasonable capability in projecting growth dynamics of uneven-aged, mixed species sclerophyll forests.     

天津市生态环境建设展望

本文紧密结合天津市生态环境的特点,坚持污染防治与生态环境保护并重的方针,优先抓好重点区域和重点工程,突出重点,分步实施,从天津市四个生态功能区入手,明确生态环境建设的主攻方向,即：（１）新建和完善天津市各级各类自然保护区;（２）在城市生态区规划建设城市生态环境圈;（３）以蓟北山区为代表,建设生态示范县;（４）中部平原区实行生态农业建设与开发;（５）东部滨海地区生态恢复与建立沿海生态经济型防护林体系     

生态文明视角下城市水安全评价指标体系的构建

水安全既是城市生态文明建设的重要内容,也是生态文明建设的重要保障,而水安全评价则是实现水安全的必然途径。本文旨在以生态文明建设为宗旨,以水安全的影响因素为依据,构建水安全评价指标体系。生态文明导向下的城市水安全评价更强调水资源的循环性、效率性、可持续性,水生态与社会发展的和谐性及平衡性。评价指标体系可分为自然生态、社会行为、制度规则和精神意识4个维度,然后根据每个维度下水资源的特征及外部因素对水资源的影响方式设计具体的评价指标,并运用层析分析法为各指标赋权。     

森林生态系统生态资产核算的模式与方法

全球变化背景下.植被对CO2的减排作用得到了广泛关注.森林生态系统具有诸多功能,不同功能的货币化基准难以统一,是进行总体生态资产价值定量核算的制约要素.在资源、环境与生态经济原理指导下,分析相关方法评估生态系统生态资产的可行性,选择量化评估参数,并通过多种模式与方法进行估算乌鲁木齐城市2004年森林生态系统的生态资产.森林生态系统涵养水源类、生物多样性维持类、净化空气类、保护土壤类以及大气调节类生态资产分别为0.224 8×108元、10.608 8x108元、0.630 8×108元、0.2592×108元及12.9653×108元,乌鲁木齐市森林生态总资产为24.6889×108元.各类生态资产具有一定的时空差异性.城市森林生态系统生态资产估算模式及方法的研究具有重要的理论价值与现实意义.     

Modelling forest management within a global vegetation model—Part 2: Model validation from a tree to a continental scale

The construction of a new forest management module (FMM) within the ORCHIDEE global vegetation model (GVM) allows a realistic simulation of biomass changes during the life cycle of a forest, which makes many biomass datasets suitable as validation data for the coupled ORCHIDEE-FM GVM. This study uses three datasets to validate ORCHIDEE-FM at different temporal and spatial scales: permanent monitoring plots, yield tables, and the French national inventory data. The last dataset has sufficient geospatial coverage to allow a novel type of validation: inventory plots can be used to produce continuous maps that can be compared to continuous simulations for regional trends in standing volumes and volume increments. ORCHIDEE-FM performs better than simple statistical models for stand-level variables, which include tree density, basal area, standing volume, average circumference and height, when management intensity and initial conditions are known: model efficiency is improved by an average of 0.11, and its average bias does not exceed 25%. The performance of the model is less satisfying for tree-level variables, including extreme circumferences, tree circumference distribution and competition indices, or when management and initial conditions are unknown. At the regional level, when climate forcing is accurate for precipitation, ORCHIDEE-FM is able to reproduce most productivity patterns in France, such as the local lows of needleleaves in the Parisian basin and of broadleaves in south-central France. The simulation of water stress effects on biomass in the Mediterranean region, however, remains problematic, as does the simulation of the wood increment for coniferous trees. These pitfalls pertain to the general ORCHIDEE model rather than to the FMM. Overall, with an average bias seldom exceeding 40%, the performance of ORCHIDEE-FM is deemed reliable to use it as a new modelling tool in the study of the effects of interactions between forest management and climate on biomass stocks of forests across a range of scales from plot to country.     

经济地理学角度的区域生态补偿机制研究

传统生态补偿以保护与改善生态环境、优化资源利用为目的,已不能体现其在生态保护、环境建设和区域发展方面的全部价值。新的区域发展形势对生态补偿机制提出了新的要求,生态补偿被认为是实现区域可持续发展和区域之间协调发展的重要手段。区域可持续发展和区域间协调发展是我国经济地理学的主要研究对象之一。如何从经济地理学的视角看待区域生态补偿,成为通过区域生态补偿机制的实施实现生态良好、经济发展和社会进步三位目标和谐发展的重要命题。从经济地理学的经典理论出发,在探讨区位论、产业结构演替理论、人地关系地域系统理论的基础上,分析了传统生态补偿的缺失和不足,并在现阶段我国以构建区域可持续和有序发展格局为目标的规划工作——主体功能区规划的基础上,就区域生态补偿的理论基础、目标导向和实施机制进行了探讨,将经济地理学的空间区位论、地域功能理论、区域发展空间均衡理论等充实到区域生态补偿的理论基础中,明确了以实现区域协调发展和基本公共服务均等化为目标导向,探索了政府主导、市场参与的区域生态补偿的实施模式,最后分析了实施难点、提出了相应的解决建议。     

Long-term simulation of the effect of climate changes on the growth of main Central-European forest tree species

The simulation of forest production until 2100 under different environmental scenarios and current management practices was performed using a process-based model BIOME-BGC previously parameterized for the main Central-European tree species, and adapted to include forest management practices. Three climatic scenarios (HadCM3, NCAR-PCM, CSIRO) used were taken from the IPCC database created within the 3^rd Assessment Report. They were combined with a scenario of CO₂ concentration development and a scenario of N deposition. The control scenario considered no changes of climatic characteristics, CO₂ concentration and N deposition.     

湿地生态风险评价中生物完整性指数研究进展

湿地是陆地与水域之间的过渡地带,是地球上生产力最高的生态系统。湿地生态风险评价的实际应用将使人们更好地理解物理、化学和生物风险源如何影响湿地,并为湿地管理提供科学支撑,这就要求确定湿地生态健康评价指标的完整性。生物完整性指数以环境生态毒理学数据为依据,是进行生态系统健康风险评价的最有力工具。大中型无脊椎动物作为易选择的分类群,可用于湿地评估的生物完整性指数的建立,土壤动物特别是线虫类群作为湿地土壤和水环境健康评价的指示生物具有广阔前景。通过线虫分子毒理学等研究方法,可优化出生物完整性指数体系,建立扰动背景下的湿地生态风险评价模型,为湿地污染的监测、防控和修复,提供理论依据和实践方法。