五氯硝基苯对小鼠脑AChE的影响及多器官氧化损伤研究

测定五氯硝基苯(PCNB)对小鼠脑乙酰胆碱酯酶(AChE)的影响及多器官的氧化损伤作用.对昆明种小鼠采用灌胃法进行200,400和600 mg·kg-1三个剂量染毒,每日一次,分别于染毒4,8,12和16d测定AChE活性、过氧化氢酶(CAT)活性和脂质过氧化(LPO)产物丙二醛(MDA)的含量.结果表明:(1)小鼠脑AChE活性受到抑制,并表现为明显的时间和剂量依赖性;(2)肝、肾CAT活性变化显著,脂质过氧化作用明显;(3)高剂量毒物在染毒16d时对脾脏脂质过氧化作用明显增强;(4)脑和血清CAT活性随染毒时间延长先升高后降低,脂质过氧化作用不明显.PCNB对小鼠可能具有神经毒性,对肝、肾脏的氧化损伤作用较强.     

嘧磺隆对农作物的毒性及残效危害研究

利用盆栽试验研究了不同质量浓度嘧磺隆对大白菜、小麦的毒性及其残效危害。结果表明，嘧磺隆对大白菜和小麦均可产生明显毒害症状，生物学指标明显劣于对照；嘧磺隆可降低大白菜和小麦叶绿素含量，并使叶片细胞膜和原生质遭到破坏，导致叶片浸出液电导率增大；当嘧磺隆质量浓度为0．01mg／L时，对大白菜的产量有品著影响，可使产量降低51．1％；嘧磺隆质量浓度大于0．1mg／L时，其残效对后茬作物有毒害作用，而质量浓度小于0．01mg／L时则没有明显影响；在小麦返青期用质量浓度大于0．01mg／L的嘧磺隆处理时，小麦受到不同程度的危害，当质量浓度增大到0．1mg／L时，小麦生物学产量则显著下降。     

盐酸小檗碱对小鼠脾细胞的DNA损伤和氧化性损伤

为了探讨盐酸小檗碱对小鼠的DNA损伤和氧化性损伤.随机选取30只小鼠分成对照组以及7.5,15,30,60与120mg· kg-1实验组,处理后,应用小鼠脾细胞进行彗星实验与抗氧化酶实验.测定DNA损伤情况以及超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、过氧化物酶(POD)活性以及丙二醛(MDA)含量变化.对盐酸小檗碱的DNA损伤与氧化性损伤作用进行比较研究.研究结果表明:彗星实验中,随着盐酸小檗碱浓度的增加,尾部DNA含量、尾长与尾矩均增加,与阴性对照组相比差异有统计学意义(p ＜0.05或p＜0.01),且呈剂量-效应关系;超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)与过氧化氢酶(CAT)活性随盐酸小檗碱剂量增加逐渐降低,丙二醛(MDA)含量明显上升,过氧化物酶(POD)活性在7.5 mg·kg-1时上升,而后逐渐下降.在60 mg·kg-1和120 mg· kg-1时,有极显著性差异(p＜0.01)产生.由此可见,盐酸小檗碱对小鼠脾细胞有一定的损伤作用,能够引起小鼠脾细胞的DNA损伤和氧化性损伤.     

邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯致神经细胞氧化损伤

为探究邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯(butyl benzyl phthalate,BBP)对小鼠神经的毒性作用,进行了小鼠体外毒理学研究。首先用不同浓度的邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯染毒神经模型细胞—N2a神经瘤细胞,通过噻唑蓝比色法(MTT),Hoechst 33258染色实验评价邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯的细胞毒效应;通过对染毒细胞氧自由基(ROS)、丙二醛(MDA)、还原型谷胱甘肽(GSH)含量的检测来探究BBP对小鼠神经瘤细胞的氧化损伤效应。随着BBP浓度的不断增高,细胞的MTT值逐渐变小,当BBP的浓度达到10 g·L-1时,MTT实验结果与对照组出现显著性差异;Hoechst 33258染色结果显示:高浓度的BBP导致细胞核呈现出不规则状态,出现了凋亡小体;随着BBP染毒浓度的升高N2a细胞中的ROS水平和MDA含量逐渐上升,分别在0.16 g·L-1和10 g·L-1开始与对照组相比出现了显著性的差异(p0.05);而GSH系数呈现下降趋势,在0.32 g·L-1时开始出现显著性差异(p0.05)。实验结果表明高浓度的邻苯二甲酸丁基苄酯可以导致神经瘤细胞的凋亡,并产生氧化损伤效应。     

锌胁迫下宽叶山蒿的耐性与富集特征

采用室内盆栽试验研究宽叶山蒿(Artemisia stolonifera)在Zn胁迫条件下的耐性和富集特征.结果表明,当w(Zn)≤500 mg·kg-1时,宽叶山蒿株高、根长和生物量均先随土壤中Zn浓度的升高而增加,之后则随Zn浓度的升高,Zn对宽叶山蒿的胁迫作用渐趋明显.与对照相比,当w(Zn)为1 500～3 500 ng·kg-1时,宽叶山蒿根部POD活性显著增大,当w(Zn)为3 500 mg·kg-1时,根部CAT活性显著增大;而叶片POD和CAT活性整体变化较不明显.宽叶山蒿根部和地上部w(Zn)最大值分别为999和3214mg·kg-1,对Zn的最大富集量分别为3.40和17.33 mg·盆-1.宽叶山蒿地上部对Zn的富集系数和迁移系数分别为0.26～0.82和0.65 ～1.05.可见,宽叶山蒿是一种对Zn具有较强耐性和富集潜力的植物,可用于Zn污染土壤的修复.     

溴化1-十四烷基-3-甲基咪唑对小鼠的肝脏毒性及其作用机制

研究离子液体溴化1-十四烷基-3-甲基咪唑盐([C₁₄mim]Br)对小鼠的肝脏毒性及其作用机制。实验设立3个剂量的染毒组(1/16 LD₅₀、1/8 LD₅₀、1/4 LD₅₀)和1个空白对照组,考察昆明种小鼠染毒14 d后,[C₁₄mim]Br对小鼠血清生化指标、肝脏抗氧化酶活性及脂质过氧化产物的影响,并观察肝脏组织的病理变化。与对照组相比,小鼠染毒后,血清中ALT、AST、DBIL和γ-GT明显升高;肝组织受到不同程度的损伤,HSI增大,蛋白质含量降低。当染毒剂量为1/4 LD₅₀时,肝脏中SOD活性和GSH-Px活性显著降低,MDA的含量则明显增加。实验结果表明,[C₁₄mim]Br可损伤小鼠的肝脏功能,破坏机体的抗氧化防御系统,造成氧化损伤和脂质过氧化。     

增塑剂邻苯二甲酸二异壬酯致小鼠肺细胞氧化损伤作用的研究

为研究增塑剂邻苯二甲酸二异壬酯(diisononyl phthalate,DINP)对小鼠肺组织的氧化损伤作用,以昆明小鼠为受试动物,随机分为5组,包括1个阴性对照组(生理盐水)和4个DINP染毒组(0.2、2、20和200 mg·kg~(-1)),灌胃14 d。光镜下发现小鼠肺组织形态随染毒剂量的增加,小鼠肺细胞的病理损伤越严重。随着DINP染毒剂量的增加,肺组织匀浆活性氧(reactive oxygen species,ROS)、丙二醛(malondialdehyde,MDA)含量和肺组织细胞DNA-蛋白质交联(DNA-protein crosslink,DPC)系数逐渐上升,还原型谷胱甘肽(glutathione,GSH)含量逐渐降低,各指标呈一定的剂量-效应关系。染毒剂量为20 mg·kg~(-1)时,ROS和MDA含量差异有统计学意义(P0.05,P0.01);染毒剂量为200 mg·kg~(-1)时,上述指标差异均有统计学意义(P0.01)。结果表明,较高剂量(≥20 mg·kg~(-1))的DINP能造成小鼠肺组织的氧化损伤和病理损伤。     

盐酸小檗碱对小鼠脾细胞的DNA损伤和氧化性损伤研究

为了探讨盐酸小檗碱对小鼠的DNA损伤和氧化性损伤。随机选取30只小鼠分成对照组以及7.5,15,30,60与120 mg?kg^-1实验组,处理后,应用小鼠脾细胞进行彗星实验与抗氧化酶实验。测定DNA损伤情况以及超氧化物歧化酶（SOD）、过氧化氢酶（CAT）、过氧化物酶（POD）活性以及丙二醛（MDA）含量变化。对盐酸小檗碱的DNA损伤与氧化性损伤作用进行比较研究。研究结果表明：彗星实验中,随着盐酸小檗碱浓度的增加,尾部DNA含量、尾长与尾矩均增加,与阴性对照组相比差异有统计学意义（p<0.05或p<0.01）,且呈剂量-效应关系;超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)与过氧化氢酶(CAT)活性随盐酸小檗碱剂量增加逐渐降低,丙二醛(MDA)含量明显下降,过氧化物酶(POD)活性在7.5 mg?kg^-1时上升,而后逐渐下降。在60 mg?kg^-1和120 mg?kg^-1时,有极显著性差异（p<0.01）产生。由此可见,盐酸小檗碱对小鼠脾细胞有一定的损伤作用,能够引起小鼠脾细胞的DNA损伤和氧化性损伤。     

邻苯二甲酸二异壬酯致小鼠肾组织氧化损伤的研究

邻苯二甲酸二异壬酯是一种新型替代增塑剂,对其毒性研究已受到广泛关注。为探究邻苯二甲酸二异壬酯对肾组织的氧化损伤作用,将昆明小鼠随机分为5组,包括1个阴性对照组、4个邻苯二甲酸二异壬酯染毒组,按0.5、5、50和500 mg·kg-1四个剂量水平灌胃染毒14天。制备小鼠肾组织切片进行病理学观察,以肾组织匀浆测定活性氧(reactive oxygen species,ROS)、还原型谷胱甘肽(glutathione,GSH)、丙二醛(malondialdehyde,MDA)和8-羟基脱氧鸟苷(8-hydroxy-2-deoxyguanosine,8-OHd G)的含量,以肾组织细胞悬液测定DNA-蛋白质交联(DNA-protein Crosslink,DPC)系数。随着邻苯二甲酸二异壬酯染毒剂量的升高,小鼠肾组织的损伤程度加重,ROS、MDA、8-OHd G含量和DPC系数逐渐上升,GSH含量逐渐降低,各指标均呈一定剂量-效应关系。染毒剂量为5 mg·kg-1时,ROS、DPC系数差异有统计学意义(P0.05,P0.01);染毒剂量为50 mg·kg-1和500 mg·kg-1时,ROS、GSH、8-OHd G、MDA含量和DPC系数差异均有统计学意义(P0.05,P0.01)。结果表明较高剂量(≥50 mg·kg-1)邻苯二甲酸二异壬酯可造成小鼠肾组织氧化损伤。     

水胺硫磷亚急性暴露对小鼠肝脏氧化应激的影响

为探讨水胺硫磷对小鼠肝脏损伤作用机制,设置0.11、1.08、2.16 mg·kg-13个低、中、高不同剂量组,以灌胃方式对昆明种小鼠进行染毒7 d后,测定小鼠肝脏组织超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)和谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GSH-Px)2种抗氧化酶的活性,以及抗氧化物质谷胱甘肽(GSH)和膜脂质过氧化物丙二醛(MDA)含量,同时观察肝脏的组织学变化。结果表明,除低剂量组外,中、高剂量组小鼠肝脏SOD和GSH-Px活性与对照组相比均受到显著抑制(P0.05),GSH的含量与对照组相比显著下降(P0.05),MDA含量与对照组相比却呈显著上升趋势(P0.01),同时各指标的变化均呈一定的剂量-效应关系。组织学观察显示中、高剂量组肝细胞出现明显水肿和坏死,肝窦狭窄甚至闭塞。结果表明氧化损伤可能是水胺硫磷致小鼠肝脏毒性损伤的作用机制之一。     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Effects of Coffee Management on Deforestation Rates and Forest Integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest‐agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973–2010) across elevations in 2 forest‐agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km² around Bonga and 3000 km² in Goma‐Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee‐growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (?10/20% vs. ?40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300–2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee‐growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest‐specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual‐crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value. Efectos de la Administración Cafetalera sobre las Tasas de Deforestación y la Integridad de los Bosques     

What Every Conservation Biologist Should Know about Economic Theory

Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self‐referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self‐contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self‐centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement.     

Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia

As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland where cashmere‐producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis. In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3‐fold increase in local profits for herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica).That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4‐fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur)in trans‐Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China's Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard(Panthera uncia), khulan(Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic‐level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere. Globalización del Mercado de Cachemira y la Declinación de Mamíferos Mayores en Asia Central     

The lichen-rich coastal heath vegetation on the isle of Anholt, Denmark — conservation and management

The high conservational value of the lichen-rich vegetation and landscape of the marine foreland Ørkenen on the isle of Anholt is treated from a Danish as well as a European perspective. The sensitivity of the lichen-rich vegetation to physical disturbance is emphasized. The impact of invasive species such asPinus mugo as well as the effect of atmospheric deposition of nutrients on the heaths at Anholt is described. Considerations related to the development of a management plan for Ørkenen are presented.     

Behavior and ecology of Old World Luperini beetles of the genusAulacophora (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary The attraction of Old World leaf beetles in the genusAulacophora to kairomones and parakairomones which are effective lures for New WorldDiabrotica andAcalymma were investigated. Beetles captured on sticky traps baited with single and multicomponent lures were no different from the control traps for two species ofAulacophora. Yellow colored traps and squash blossoms are attractive toAulacophora beetles which detect sub-microgram quantities of cucurbitacins on silica gel. Leaf feeding behavior and flight activity data are correlated with varietal preference of threeAulacophora species. The common response byDiabrotica andAulacophora to cucurbitacins reinforces the two groups' coevolutionary association with the Cucurbitaceae. The apparent lack of a common response toCucurbita blossom volatiles suggests recent evolutionary pathways are substantially different for these two groups of beetles.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.