基于GIS的上海世博会游人分布和流动预测分析

2010年上海世博会将在黄浦江两岸举办,通过对展期间游人集中分布的分析可知,世博园浦东会场的中国馆及邻近的水上出入口、主题馆和浦西会场的企业馆区域游人可能最为密集,而部分交通节点附近和浦东西部区域游人相对分散。通过展期内游客流动模式的预测可知,整个世博园区是以浦东中部的中国馆和邻近的外国馆、主题馆、公共活动中心,浦东西部的外国馆区,以及浦西的企业馆区域游人活动频率最高,中国馆区域的过江人流频度较高,而各场馆以及游人密集区通向交通节点的人流相对平缓。基于以上GIS空间分析,提出了如何控制局部地区游人数量和安全有效地疏散游人的场地规划建议。     

中国部分自然保护区生物物种数量与面积之间关系的研究

分析了中国部分自然保护区面积与生物物种(动物和植物)之间的关系;其次讨论了动物与植物以及动物与动物物种数量间的关系.结果表明,我国部分自然保护区的面积多数偏小,鸟类、哺乳类、种子植物、爬行类、昆虫和两栖类等与其面积的相关关系依次减弱;其植物种数与鸟类种数的作用影响最大、关系最密切;两栖类与各类动物之间以及鸟类与各类动物之间的物种数目呈显著的相关关系;两栖类与昆虫类为负作用影响;鸟类与两栖类和爬行类以及哺乳类与两栖类为最大的正作用影响.     

Pastoralism,nature conservation and ecological sustainability in Western Australia's southern shrubland rangelands

Two major issues are discussed in this paper. The first is the commitment of Federal and State Governments to the maintenance of biodiversity and nature conservation through their endorsement of conservation strategies. Based on a rangeland biophysical resource inventory survey (Pringle et al., 1994) it is contended that existing nature conservation reserves are not representative of the biological diversity in the region. In 1990, less than 1% of the survey area was under nature reservation. Whilst 13 of 17 land types are present in reserves, most of the reserves consist of land types least suitable for pastoralism (but not necessarily lacking conservation value). The land types most subject to preferential grazing and most threatened from a nature conservation perspective are poorly (three types) or not (four types) represented, and certainly not replicated, in nature reserves of the survey area, which exceeds 100 000 km2. Of the 23 priority plant species for nature conservation occurring in the survey area, 21 are not known to occur in nature reserves. Nature conservation in the area needs to improve because of the unrepresentativeness of the existing nature reserves and the absence of numerous priority plant species for nature conservation from these areas. We should recognize that reservation is but one nature conservation strategy. Viewed as a land tenure issue, this paper presents a case for a more representative nature reserve system, and substantial changes in outlook towards off-reserve nature conservation. First, an integrated appraisal of findings from rangeland and biological surveys is required. Together they provide a strong foundation for nature conservation planning, from which a more representative nature reserve system can be planned. Given that off-reserve nature conservation values are still likely to be substantial, partly as a result of compromise with existing land uses, new approaches to land management, sensitive to these values, may be required.The second major issue concerns the success of maintaining regional biological diversity in the arid shrubland rangelands of Western Australia, which will be strongly influenced by the use of the semi-natural matrix of lands under pastoral management. In six suggested opportunities, this paper addresses how this use may be achieved. Central to the ideas is a regional approach in which all stakeholders can contribute to, and have ownership of, regional environmental management plans. This paper emphasizes the role that conservative pastoral management might be able to play and some approaches to encourage more widespread participation of pastoralists in nature conservation management.     

Relevance of crowding effects in a coastal National Park in Germany: results from a case study on Hamburger Hallig

Coastal environments are popular sites for tourism and faced with an increasing recreational demand. Most of European coastal areas attract numerous visitors annually. In recreation research this management problem can be described in terms of carrying capacity which expresses the ability of a site or region to absorb recreational use without deterioration of natural resources and the quality of the visitor experience. As social aspects of recreation in Europe still have received little attention, the purpose of this study is to examine the applicability of the concept of social carrying capacity in a German coastal national park. The article addresses if the relationship between perceived visitor encounters, crowding perception and visitor characteristics is applicable by using data from an on-site survey (N?=?509) of visitors conducted on Hamburger Hallig, Germany. It examines whether effects of overcrowding are measurable on a popular daytrip destination with established approaches. Results demonstrate that visitors to Hamburger Hallig are characterised by a heterogeneous visitor composition of local residents and domestic tourists with different motivations and who mainly visited the area for hiking or cycling. Study findings show that valuation for reported encounters and perceived crowding differed substantially among origin of visitors and sampling dates. All in all, respondents report a high level of encounter with others and in contrast a very low level of perceived crowding.     

Protected Areas and Prospects for Endangered Species Conservation in Canada

Abstract:  Reserve networks figure prominently in conservation strategies that aim to reduce extinction rates. We tested the effectiveness of the current reserve network at protecting species at risk in Canada, where relatively extensive wilderness areas remain. We compared numbers of terrestrial species at risk included in existing reserves to randomly generated networks with the same total area and number of reserves. Existing reserve networks rarely performed better than randomly selected areas and several included fewer endangered species than expected by chance, particularly in the most biologically imperiled regions. The extent of protected area and density of species at risk were unrelated at either broad (countrywide) or finer spatial scales (50 × 50 km grids), although there was a tendency for the most threatened regions of the country to have few or no protected areas (1.5% of areas with >30 endangered species were in reserves). Although reserves will play a useful role in conserving endangered species that occur within them, reducing extinction rates in a region with much of the world's remaining wilderness will require integrating conservation strategies with agricultural and urban land-use plans outside formally protected areas.     

Relative Importance of Reproductive Biology and Establishment Ecology for Persistence of a Rare Shrub in a Fragmented Landscape

Abstract:  Verticordia fimbrilepis (Turcz) ssp. fimbrilepis (Myrtaceae) is an endangered shrub that occurs in a number of populations varying in size and landscape context. We compared the importance of factors associated with its reproductive biology with that of factors influencing the regeneration niche in survival of small, isolated populations in contrasting habitat fragments. Small populations on road verges had equal or greater diversity of insect visitors to flowers, rates of pollination, and seed production compared with larger populations in conservation reserves. V. fimbrilepis seeds remained dormant in the soil for at least 30 months, and germination was stimulated by smoke. Plants were killed by fire, but mass recruitment from soil-stored seed reserves occurred in the first and second winters following fire. Our studies showed some seedling recruitment between fires, but this was strongly related to the availability of competition-free establishment sites. Whether this is enough to replace older plants as they die and thereby sustain stable populations is unknown and probably varies with the landscape. Environmental variation between fire episodes influenced population size. Drought increased mortality, but wetter years encouraged interfire recruitment. Most populations are declining and cannot recover without the occurrence of fire. In a fragmented agricultural landscape, fire suppression is the primary management practice. This may adversely affect rare species such as V. fimbrilepis and others with similar life histories that rely on a particular fire regime to persist. Population persistence is more likely to be related to stochastic environmental events than to factors associated with reproductive biology.     

Variation in species losses from islands: artifacts, extirpation rates, or pre-fragmentation diversity?

Species are being lost from isolated reserves as predicted by ecological theory, prompting calls for larger reserves with higher species immigration rates. However, some large islands have lost a large proportion of their species, whereas some small islands have not lost any. Conservation efforts would be more efficient if the cause of such variation in the relationships among number of species lost, island size, and immigration rate were known. Observed species losses could be affected by the time since islands were isolated, species immigration rates, species extirpation rates, the pre-fragmentation diversity of the region relative to steady state, or overestimation of the pre-fragmentation diversity of islands. To test the last three hypotheses, I compared the intersection points of the island, intraprovincial, and interprovincial species-area relationships of terrestrial mammals from nine archipelagos of land-bridge islands and terrestrial habitat isolates. Species losses from three archipelagos were greater than expected due to reduced immigration rates alone, although I could not resolve if this was due to increased extirpation rates or overestimation of the pre-fragmentation diversity of the islands. Analysis of six archipelagos indicates that the diversity of mammals in two regions of North America is currently below steady state, probably due to the extinction of mammals and glacial retreat during the late Pleistocene. These results have direct implications for reserve planning. When provincial diversity is below steady state, some combinations of reserve size and species immigration rate will allow reserves to maintain their pre-isolation diversity. However, the diversity of provinces relative to steady state is likely to vary, so conservation of a given proportion of a province may not always conserve the same proportion of its species. I present a new species-area relationship for islands formed by fragmentation that replaces the parameter c (fitted constant) with a rotation point. Estimation of this rotation point will allow reserve planners to separate the effects of extirpation and immigration rates on species losses from islands, identify provinces that are below steady-state diversity, and estimate the combinations of reserve size and immigration rate that will prevent loss of species from reserves.     

Exploring human–nature interactions in national parks with social media photographs and computer vision

Understanding the activities and preferences of visitors is crucial for managing protected areas and planning conservation strategies. Conservation culturomics promotes the use of user-generated online content in conservation science. Geotagged social media content is a unique source of in situ information on human presence and activities in nature. Photographs posted on social media platforms are a promising source of information, but analyzing large volumes of photographs manually remains laborious. We examined the application of state-of-the-art computer-vision methods to studying human–nature interactions. We used semantic clustering, scene classification, and object detection to automatically analyze photographs taken in Finnish national parks by domestic and international visitors. Our results showed that human–nature interactions can be extracted from user-generated photographs with computer vision. The different methods complemented each other by revealing broad visual themes related to level of the data set, landscape photogeneity, and human activities. Geotagged photographs revealed distinct regional profiles for national parks (e.g., preferences in landscapes and activities), which are potentially useful in park management. Photographic content differed between domestic and international visitors, which indicates differences in activities and preferences. Information extracted automatically from photographs can help identify preferences among diverse visitor groups, which can be used to create profiles of national parks for conservation marketing and to support conservation strategies that rely on public acceptance. The application of computer-vision methods to automatic content analysis of photographs should be explored further in conservation culturomics, particularly in combination with rich metadata available on social media platforms.     

Where Should Nature Reserves Be Located in South Africa? A Snake's Perspective

The present dispersion of nature reserves in South Africa is the historical result of a series of ad hoc decisions and may not be biologically optimal We have adopted a method to identify the optimal geography of nature reserves for the conservation of South Africa's snake fauna. The method of reserve selection operated on two tiers, and the spatial unit of analysis was a quarter-degree-square cell (∼625 km²). First, two scoring indices were used to rank cells with respect to species richness or to rarity. Second, two different iterative reserve-selection algorithms selected sets of cells (reserves), where each set represented all snake species at least once. Finally, the selected cells were examined for their present level of protection and their ranked scores. Depending on the algorithm chosen, only 23 or 29 cells were required to represent all species at least once; 72–78% of these cells already contained some level of protection; 59–70% of cells fell in areas of high species richness; and 72–91% of cells fell in areas with high rarity scores. Thus we conclude that most of the snake species in South Africa may be adequately protected with only modest acquisition of new reserves, and that the iterative algorithms appear to be efficient at siting cells in areas of high richness and rarity. We recommend that the reserve placement method outlined in this report be applied to as many other taxa as possible in the formulation of a national plan for an optimal reserve system for South Africa.     

Effectiveness of management zoning designed for flagship species in protecting sympatric species

Flagship species have been used widely as umbrella species (i.e., species with large home range whose protection often provides protection for sympatric species) in the management of China's nature reserves. This conflation of flagship and umbrella species is best represented by the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and other large, endangered mammals designated as conservation targets in site selection and planning of reserves. Few empirical studies have tested the effectiveness of flagship species as surrogates for a broader range of sympatric species. Using extensive camera-trap data, we examined the effectiveness of management zones designated to protect flagship (target) species in conserving sympatric species in 4 wildlife reserves (Gutianshan, Changqing, Laohegou, and Wolong). We tested whether the progression from peripheral to core zones was associated with an increasing habitat association for both target and sympatric species. The distribution patterns of the study species across the zones in each reserve indicated a disparity between management zones and the species’ habitat requirements. Management zone was included in the final model for all target species, and most of them had higher occurrence in core zones relative to less-protected zones, but zone was not a predictor for most of the sympatric species. When management zone was associated with the occurrence of sympatric species, threatened species generally had higher detections in core zones, whereas common species had higher detections outside of the core zone. Our results suggested that reserve planning based on flagship species does not adequately protect sympatric species due to their specialized habitat requirements. We recommend re-examining the effectiveness of management zoning and urge a multispecies and reserve-wide monitoring plan to improve protection of China's wildlife.     

Large Herbivores and the Design of Large-Scale Nature Reserves in Western Europe

Nature conservation in densely populated areas, as in western Europe, faces the continuous loss and fragmentation of suitable habitats for wild species. Current conservation measures have not been successful in countering this threat to biological diversity, so a new concept for nature conservation is required. I propose using the habitat requirements of large herbivores as a key to the design of large-scale nature reserves. Large herbivores can have a significant influence on vegetation composition and thus act as keystone species. Moreover, they require large tracts of land and can be considered an umbrella species group for the preservation of other plants and animals. I review the present status of nature reserves in the European Union concerning size distribution and the occurrence of large herbivores and their predators. I argue that habitat fragmentation and the increased management costs of maintaining seminatural areas necessitate an enlargement of existing reserves, a process-oriented management approach, and a minimization of human influence for the long-term preservation of biological diversity.     

Temperature effects on fecundity,development and survival of the benthopelagic calanoid copepod, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudocyclops xiphophorus</Emphasis>

The shallow-living, benthopelagic copepod species Pseudocyclops xiphophorus Wells (R Soc Edimburg 67:1967), collected over a yearly cycle from the fouling material in the brackish water Lake Faro (North-eastern Sicily), showed marked seasonal fluctuations in population abundances, with maximum numbers recorded in autumn. Highest in situ egg production rates coincided with periods of low adult and juvenile densities and vice versa, except in autumn when peaks in egg production and adult population densities were coincident. In this period, mean daily egg production rates reached a maximum of 4–5 eggs per female, when surface water temperature was 17–18°C. Egg production rates declined drastically in winter and were completely arrested when surface temperatures dropped to 10–12°C. In March, daily egg production rates began to increase again with an increase in ambient temperatures, reaching a maximum at the end of August. In the laboratory, as in the field, mean daily egg production rates were positively correlated with temperature, with values ranging from 2.2 ± 0.3 (16°C) to 8.9 ± 2.6 (30°C) (mean ± S.D.) eggs per female per day. At 32°C, P. xiphophorus females survived but did not reproduce. At 34°C, all specimens died after a few days. In terms of total egg production for the entire female lifespan, maximum values occurred at 16°C and minimum at 24°C. Temperature also dramatically affected female life span, which was shorter at higher temperatures. Development time of eggs decreased with increasing temperature, as also development time from egg to adulthood. Remating was necessary for the continued production of fertile eggs at 16°C because female life span was longer. The unique egg-laying behaviour in this species may ensure higher survival rates of egg stages compared to free-spawning and egg-carrying calanoid species. After releasing the egg pair, the female swims over the eggs with a rotatory motion, secreting a substance which facilitates the adhesion of the eggs to the bottom; she then continues to swim over the eggs until they are attached. Although egg production rates in this species are low compared to other pelagic copepods, they are within the range of values reported for egg-carrying species. The greater fecundity at higher temperatures compared to other subtemperate species indicates that the species is well adapted to the higher temperatures of coastal lagoons and brackish water lakes where it contributes to the biofouling community.     

China's endemic vertebrates sheltering under the protective umbrella of the giant panda

The giant panda attracts disproportionate conservation resources. How well does this emphasis protect other endemic species? Detailed data on geographical ranges are not available for plants or invertebrates, so we restrict our analyses to 3 vertebrate taxa: birds, mammals, and amphibians. There are gaps in their protection, and we recommend practical actions to fill them. We identified patterns of species richness, then identified which species are endemic to China, and then which, like the panda, live in forests. After refining each species' range by its known elevational range and remaining forest habitats as determined from remote sensing, we identified the top 5% richest areas as the centers of endemism. Southern mountains, especially the eastern Hengduan Mountains, were centers for all 3 taxa. Over 96% of the panda habitat overlapped the endemic centers. Thus, investing in almost any panda habitat will benefit many other endemics. Existing panda national nature reserves cover all but one of the endemic species that overlap with the panda's distribution. Of particular interest are 14 mammal, 20 bird, and 82 amphibian species that are inadequately protected. Most of these species the International Union for Conservation of Nature currently deems threatened. But 7 mammal, 3 bird, and 20 amphibian species are currently nonthreatened, yet their geographical ranges are <20,000 km² after accounting for elevational restriction and remaining habitats. These species concentrate mainly in Sichuan, Yunnan, Nan Mountains, and Hainan. There is a high concentration in the east Daxiang and Xiaoxiang Mountains of Sichuan, where pandas are absent and where there are no national nature reserves. The others concentrate in Yunnan, Nan Mountains, and Hainan. Here, 10 prefectures might establish new protected areas or upgrade local nature reserves to national status.     

The Significance of Protected Areas for the Land Birds of Southern Finland

Protected areas (nature reserves) cover 0.7% of the land area in southern Finland (162,000 km²), which belongs to the south- and mid-boreal coniferous forest zones. The value of these areas in preserving land birds was studied on the basis of quantitative censuses. The numbers of bird pairs were estimated in nature reserves and in the whole of southern Finland, and the significance of the reserves was evaluated based on how large a proportion of the total population in southern Finland was found in them. Forest habitat generalists and species of coniferous forests occurred in protected areas as expected by the proportion of these areas in southern Finland. Specimens of these species groups comprise two thirds of all the country's land birds. Species of old-growth forests and open peatlands clearly preferred protected areas, whereas species of bushes, and lush and deciduous forest were scarcer in protected areas than elsewhere in southern Finland. The latter fertile habitats are poorly represented in protected areas, even though due to their disappearance or alteration elsewhere several species confined to these habitats have declined and are even threatened. Drainage of open peatlands and clearcutting of old-growth forests has caused a decrease in the area of these habitats in southern Finland during the past decades. Therefore, protected areas have a high significance in preserving bird species preferring these habitats. Protected areas are particularly important for decreased species of old-growth forests, such as the Three-toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus and the Siberian Jay Perisoreus infaustus , as about 10% of their total population in southern Finland was estimated to breed in protected areas. The future protection of both old-growth and deciduous forests is important if we are to preserve bio-diversity of land birds in Finland.     

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact.     

The importance of protected areas for the forest and endemic avifauna of Sulawesi (Indonesia).

Protected areas are critical for the conservation of residual tropical forest biodiversity, yet many of these are being deforested by humans both within and outside of their administrative boundaries. Therefore, it is critical to document the significance of protected areas for conserving tropical biodiversity, particularly in mega-diverse Southeast Asia. We evaluated the importance of protected areas (national parks [NP], nature reserves [NR], and wildlife reserves [WR]) in preserving avifaunal diversity, particularly the endemic and forest species, on the island of Sulawesi. This island has one of the highest numbers of endemic avifauna genera (12) globally and is also experiencing heavy deforestation. Rarefaction analyses and species estimators showed that parks and reserves consistently recorded higher number of forest, endemic, and endemic forest bird species, in addition to larger population densities, than in their surrounding human-modified areas across eight protected areas (Gunung Manembo-nembo WR, Tangkoko-Batu Angus and Dua Saudara NR, Gunung Ambang NR, Bogani Nani Wartabone NP, Gunung Tinombala NR, Gunung Sojol NR, Lore Lindu NP, and Rawa Aopa Watumohai NP). This implies that protecting natural forests must remain as one of the fundamental conservation strategies in Sulawesi. Two small reserves (Gunung Manembo-nembo WR and Tangkoko-Batu Angus and Dua Saudara NR), however, had high number of forest and endemic bird species both within and outside their boundaries, suggesting the importance of buffer areas for augmenting small reserves so as to improve their conservation value. Ordination analyses revealed the differential response of bird species to different environmental factors (e.g., native tree cover), highlighting the significance of forested habitats with dense native vegetation cover for effective conservation of forest dependent and endemic avifauna. In addition, the distinctiveness in bird species composition among protected areas highlights the importance of establishing a reserve network across major altitudinal zones so as to achieve maximum complementarity for the conservation of Sulawesi's unique avifauna.     

A Mesofilter Conservation Strategy to Complement Fine and Coarse Filters

Abstract:  Setting aside entire ecosystems in reserves is an efficient way to maintain biodiversity because large numbers of species are protected, but ecosystem conservation constitutes a coarse filter that does not address some species. A complementary, fine-filter approach is also required to provide tailored management for some species (e.g., those subject to direct exploitation). Mesofilter conservation is another complementary approach that focuses on conserving critical elements of ecosystems that are important to many species, especially those likely to be overlooked by fine-filter approaches, such as invertebrates, fungi, and nonvascular plants. Critical elements include structures such as logs, snags, pools, springs, streams, reefs, and hedgerows, and processes such as fires and floods. Mesofilter conservation is particularly appropriate for seminatural ecosystems that are managed for both biodiversity and commodity production (e.g., forests managed for timber, grasslands managed for livestock forage, and aquatic ecosystems managed for fisheries) and is relevant to managing some agricultural and urban environments for biodiversity.     

Community recruitment: Settlement and juvenile survival of seven co-occurring species of sessile marine invertebrates

Recruitment of a group of co-occurring sessile invertebrates (a serpulid polychaete, an oyster, a bryozoan, and several colonial and one solitary ascidian) that encrust floating docks in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, was studied in August 1985. Daily photographs were taken of acrylic settling plates over a 14 d period, and daily settlement and juvenile mortality were measured. Settlement rates were compared between species and days, while juvenile mortalities were compared between species, days, juvenile ages and densities of juveniles on the plates. Species differed in abundance of both settlers and juveniles, and in rate and pattern of juvenile mortality. Settlement intensity varied between days for some species. Significant juvenile mortality occurred during the 14 d for most species; it appeared to be caused by fish predation. For two species, mortality varied with juvenile age, with older individuals suffering higher mortality. Mortality was density-dependent for some species, increasing with numbers of juveniles on the plates. Mortality patterns varied even within the colonial species. Assessing larval settlement and juvenile mortality for a single species or type of organism in a community thus may not indicate that similar patterns exist for co-occurring species.     

Effects of Local Disturbance of Tropical Forests on Frugivores and Seed Removal of a Small-Seeded Afrotropical Tree

Abstract:  Small-scale, local disturbance of tropical forests, for example from selective logging, is widespread, but its effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function have rarely been studied. In 3 East African tropical rainforests, we investigated the effect of different levels of local forest disturbance on the frugivore community and on tree visitation and fruit removal rates of the small-seeded tree Celtis durandii. We quantified birds and primates in little and heavily disturbed sites, distinguishing between forest specialists, forest generalists, and forest visitors. We quantified frugivorous tree visitors and seed removal rates of C. durandii trees in the same sites. Forest disturbance reduced the species richness and density of the frugivore community and of forest specialists. Frugivorous species and individuals visiting the study trees were reduced significantly, which led to a marginally significant decline in fruit removal by all frugivores and a significant reduction in removal by forest specialists. Reduction in fruit removal by forest specialists was not compensated for by increases in removal by forest generalists or visitors. Results did not differ among the 3 rainforests, which suggests they were consistent at a regional scale. So local forest disturbance led to a loss of frugivores and their seed removal services. This suggests that large-seeded tree species and trees with small fruits are losing seed dispersers. Thus, local forest disturbance appears to have a more general negative impact on frugivores and their seed dispersal services than anticipated previously.     

Extinction Rates in Archipelagoes: Implications for Populations in Fragmented Habitats

To study the effect of habitat fragmentation on population viability, I used extinction rates on islands in archipelagoes and estimated the relative probability of extinction per species on single large islands and sets of smaller islands with the same total area. Data on lizards, birds, and mammals on oceanic islands and mammals on mountaintops and in nature reserves yield similar results. Species are likely to go extinct on all the small islands before they go extinct on the single, large island. In the short term, the analysis indicates that extinction probabilities may be lower on a set of small islands. This is perhaps an artifact due to underestimation of extinction rates on small islands and/or the necessity of pooling species in a focal taxon to obtain estimates of extinction rates (which may obscure area thresholds and underestimate the slope and curvature of extinction rates as a function of area). Ultimately, cumulative extinction probabilities are higher for a set of small islands than for single large islands. Mean and median times to extinction tend to be shorter in the fragmented systems, in some cases much shorter. Thus, to minimize extinction rates in isolated habitat remnants and nature reserve systems, the degree of fragmentation should be minimized