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《资源开发与市场》2015,(11)
从总体特征和脱钩关系角度对我国1990—2013年能源碳排放与GDP的关系进行分析。结果表明:能源碳排放与GDP之间呈现出较强的关联性,1997—1998年我国能源碳排放与GDP处于"绝对脱钩"状态,2003—2004年处于"未脱钩"状态,其他年份处于"相对脱钩"状态。其次,根据自组织理论中的哈肯模型建立能源碳排放与GDP的演化模型,对能源碳排放与GDP进行预测。结果表明,我国到2020年单位GDP的能源碳排放比2005年下降了45.18%;2015—2020年我国能源碳排放年均增长率为3.17%,同时GDP年均增长6.44%,我国能源碳排放与GDP处于"相对脱钩"状态。第三,构建势函数来模拟能源碳排放与GDP系统的演化过程,并分析序参量和控制参数,表明能源碳排放是序参量,它主导着GDP的发展变化和系统的演化过程;控制参数的变化也会引起势函数的变化,从而影响系统的调整与演化。 相似文献
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南海市耕地数量变化驱动力的定量分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
分析了南海市耕地数量变化的特点,并用定性与定量相结合的方法进一步探讨了耕地数量变化的驱动力。结果表明,南海市耕地数量的变化与珠江三角洲耕地数量变化的时间基本一致且与经济发展同步。经济发展、人口增长、基础设施建设及农业结构调整是耕地数量变化的主要驱动力。 相似文献
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广州市1980-2002年间产业发展可分为两个阶段,即工业化中期(1980-1993年)和工业化后期(1994-2002年)。在这两个产业发展阶段,耕地数最变化存在较大差异:耕地年均减少工业化中期大于后期,变化速度则是后期大于中期,利用效益后期明显优于中期。利用相关分析和主成分分析方法,得出人口增长、经济发展、城市化进程、农业产业结构调整、交通发展是广州市1980-2002年间耕地数量变化的主要驱动力,在不同产业阶段各驱动因子存在差异,其中农业比重、实际利用外资、城市化、客运量等因子差异较为明显,从而导致了不同时期耕地数量变化的差异性。 相似文献
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城镇化与耕地数量变化之间的关系是当前土地问题研究的焦点之一。利用1990-2004年江汉平原14个县市的统计数据资料,分析了在不同城市、不同城镇化阶段以及不同城镇化速度等条件下耕地面积所呈现的变化特点,并归纳出基于耕地资源利用特征的3种城镇化模式。 相似文献
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第三产业的加快发展是生产力提高和社会进步的必然结果。大力发展第三产业有利于提高工农业生产的社会化和专业化水平,有利于优化生产结构,促进市场充分发育,缓解就业压力,从而促进整个经济持续、快速和健康发展。利用1991-2009年数据,以向量自回归模型为基础,采用单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果检验等方法对甘肃省第三产业与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,1991-2009年甘肃省第三产业总值对GDP的长期弹性为0.35035,第三产业对经济增长具有积极的促进作用。 相似文献
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论我国耕地保护与粮食安全 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
耕地资源关系到国家经济发展、社会稳定和粮食安全。对我国而言,经济飞速增长,人地矛盾十分突出,每寸土地都显得弥足珍贵。在收集我国1997-2005年耕地面积变化的资料,并作相关分析的基础上,研究得出我国耕地资源呈现不断减少的趋势,其中生态退耕和非农建设用地占用耕地是其变化的主要原因。耕地资源的减少引起了粮食总产量和单产量的变化,而耕地复种指数也是影响耕地产量的主要原因之一。在此基础上分析了耕地保护和粮食安全的内在关系,并提出适合我国的耕地资源可持续利用与粮食安全的措施。 相似文献
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安徽省耕地时空变化及驱动力研究 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
利用安徽省各地、市50余年来的长序列统计资料,对安徽省耕地时空动态变化进行了研究,应用相关分析与主成分分析方法相结合,定量地诊断出耕地变化的驱动因子,揭示耕地变化的驱动机制。结果表明,经济发展、人口增长和农业科技进步是影响安徽省耕地数量变化的三大驱动因素,在此基础上提出了安徽省耕地保护的对策,并将研究结果应用GIS进行了空间表达,该成果对安徽省农业可持续发展具有重要意义。 相似文献
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济南市耕地变化与社会经济的相关分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
利用济南市1978年以来的统计资料,分析了济南市耕地与社会经济的动态变化过程,建立了耕地变化与社会经济的定量相关模型,预测了济南市的耕地将保持缓慢减少的趋势,建议采取有效的耕地保护措施,利用政策驱动来控制耕地减少,实现耕地总量的动态平衡. 相似文献
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2000-2009年鄂南丘陵山区耕地集约利用变化分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
耕地集约利用是可持续发展的必然要求.从耕地集约利用内涵入手,通过构建耕地利用集约度的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法对鄂南丘陵山区2000-2009年耕地集约利用进行了评价,并对耕地集约利用变化原因进行了分析.结果表明,10年间鄂南丘陵耕地的集约利用程度呈波动上升的趋势.目前阻碍鄂南丘陵山区耕地集约利用的因素主要为农田水利投入不足,占用耕地严重等,因此应加强耕地保护力度,积极进行耕地整治,加强水利基础设施建设,建立耕地环境质量安全体系. 相似文献
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Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of
urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and
flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover
changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables
originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species
distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur
on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes
based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly
correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and
densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing
densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines
are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species.
We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive
some management suggestions. 相似文献
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Elisabetta Peccol Chris A. Bird Tim R. Brewer 《Journal of environmental management》1996,47(4):355-367
The county of Bedfordshire is typical of landscape in lowland England with land cover dominant over land form and agriculture forming the major land use. Landscape change can be influenced by planning policies through their control of land use. A number of designated areas such as Areas of Great Landscape Value, Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty and Green Belt have been defined where particular planning priorities for the conservation of the countryside apply. This paper reports work where an attempt has been made to measure the influence of these designations on landscape change using the tools of aerial photograph interpretation and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Aerial photographs were available for the study area for 1968, 1981 and 1991. These were interpreted to a landscape classification scheme in terms of point, linear and area features such as trees, hedgerows and cultivated land, respectively. Field work was carried out to assess the accuracy of the interpretation. The resulting data were input to a GIS for each date of photography. Digital maps were created for the land cover features and tables were generated of lengths of linear features or counts of point features for each kilometre square in the study area. Spatial analysis tools provided by the GIS were used to describe the landscape character of each of the designated areas and then to measure the change that had taken place within them over the time period defined by the photography. Areas which were not designated for conservation of scenic beauty were shown to be poorer in traditional landscape features. 相似文献