Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Low Streamflow and Precipitation Changes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Spatial and temporal patterns in low streamflows were investigated for 183 streamgages located in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed for the period 1939–2013. Metrics that represent different aspects of the frequency and magnitude of low streamflows were examined for trends: (1) the annual time series of seven‐day average minimum streamflow, (2) the scaled average deficit at or below the 2% mean daily streamflow value relative to a base period between 1939 and 1970, and (3) the annual number of days below the 2% threshold. Trends in these statistics showed spatial cohesion, with increasing low streamflow volume at streamgages located in the northern uplands of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and decreasing low streamflow volume at streamgages in the southern part of the watershed. For a small subset of streamgages (12%), conflicting trend patterns were observed between the seven‐day average minimum streamflow and the below‐threshold time series and these appear to be related to upstream diversions or the influence of reservoir‐influenced streamflows in their contributing watersheds. Using multivariate classification techniques, mean annual precipitation and fraction of precipitation falling as snow appear to be broad controls of increasing and decreasing low‐flow trends. Further investigation of seasonal precipitation patterns shows summer rainfall patterns, driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, as the main driver of low streamflows in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.     

Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Alterations on Frequency Distributions of Terrestrial Runoff Loading to Coastal Waters in Southern California1

Abstract: The transport of water, sediment, dissolved and particulate chemicals, and bacteria from coastal watersheds affects the nearshore marine and estuarine waters. In southern California, coastal watersheds deliver water and associated constituents to the nearshore system in discrete pulses. To better understand the pulsed nature of these watersheds, frequency distributions of simulated runoff events are presented for: (1) three land use conditions (1929, 1998, 2050); (2) three time periods (all water years 1989‐2002), only El Nino years (1992, 1993, 1995, 1998); and only non‐El Nino years; and (3) three regions (watershed, uplands, and lowlands). At the watershed scale, there was a significant increase (>200%) in mean event runoff from 1929 to 2050 (0.4‐1.3 cm) due to localized urbanization, which shifted the dominant sources of runoff from the mountains in 1929 (78% of watershed runoff) to the coastal plane for 2050 conditions (51% of watershed runoff). Inter‐annual climate variability was strong in the rainfall and runoff frequency distributions, with mean event rainfall and runoff 66 and 60% larger in El Nino relative to non‐El Nino years. Combining urbanization and climate variability, 2050 land conditions resulted in El Nino years being five times more likely to produce large (>3.0 cm) runoff events relative to non‐El Nino years. Combining frequency distributions of event runoff with regional nutrient export relationships, we show that in El Nino years, one in five events produced runoff ≥2.5 cm and temporary nearshore nitrate and phosphate concentrations of 12 and 1.4 μM, respectively, or approximately 5‐10 times above ambient conditions.     

Temporal Changes in Streamflow and Attribution of Changes to Climate and Landuse in Wisconsin Watersheds

Previous historic trends analyses on 21st Century hydrologic data in the United States generally focus on annual flow statistics and have continued to use USGS hydro‐climatic data network (HCDN) stations, although post‐1988 diversions and runoff regulations are not reflected in the HCDN. Using a more recent dataset, Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow, version II (GAGES II), compiled by Falcone (2012), which includes more watersheds with reference conditions, a comprehensive analysis of changes in seasonal, and annual streamflow in Wisconsin watersheds is demonstrated. Given the pronounced influence of seasonal hydrology in Wisconsin watersheds, the objective of this study is to elucidate the nature of temporal (annual, seasonal, and monthly) changes in runoff. Considerable temporal and regional variability was found in annual and seasonal streamflow changes between the two historic periods 1951‐1980 and 1981‐2010 considered in the study. For example, the northern watersheds show relatively small changes in streamflow discharge ranging from ?6.0 to 4.2%, while the southern watersheds show relatively large increases in streamflow discharge ranging from 13.1 to 18.2%. To apportion streamflow changes to climate and nonclimatic factors, a method based on potential evapotranspiration changes is demonstrated. Results show that nonclimatic factors account for more than 60% of changes in annual runoff in Wisconsin watersheds considered in the study.     

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Change in Three South Dakota Watersheds

This study analyzed changes in hydrology between two recent decades (1980s and 2010s) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three representative watersheds in South Dakota: Bad River, Skunk Creek, and Upper Big Sioux River watersheds. Two SWAT models were created over two discrete time periods (1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014) for each watershed. National Land Cover Datasets 1992 and 2011 were, respectively, ingested into 1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014 models, along with corresponding weather data, to enable comparison of annual and seasonal runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration (ET), water yield, and percolation between these two decades. Simulation results based on the calibrated models showed that surface runoff, soil water content, water yield, and percolation increased in all three watersheds. Elevated ET was also apparent, except in Skunk Creek watershed. Differences in annual water balance components appeared to follow changes in land use more closely than variation in precipitation amounts, although seasonal variation in precipitation was reflected in seasonal surface runoff. Subbasin‐scale spatial analyses revealed noticeable increases in water balance components mostly in downstream parts of Bad River and Skunk Creek watersheds, and the western part of Upper Big Sioux River watershed. Results presented in this study provide some insight into recent changes in hydrological processes in South Dakota watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Nutrient and Sediment Production,Watershed Characteristics,and Land Use in the Tahoe Basin,California‐Nevada1

Abstract: In efforts to control the degradation of water quality in Lake Tahoe, public agencies have monitored surface water discharge and concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in two separate sampling programs. The first program focuses on 20 watersheds varying in size from 162 to 14,000 ha, with continuous stream gaging and periodic sampling; the second focuses on small urbanized catchments, with automated sampling during runoff events. Using data from both programs, we addressed the questions (1) what are the fluxes and concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus entering the lake from surface runoff; (2) how do the fluxes and concentrations vary in space and time; and (3) how are they related to land use and watershed characteristics? To answer these questions, we calculated discharge‐weighted average concentrations and annual fluxes and used multiple regression to relate those variable to a suite of GIS‐derived explanatory variables. The final selected regression models explain 47‐62% of the variance in constituent concentrations in the stormwater monitoring catchments, and 45‐72% of the variance in mean annual yields in the larger watersheds. The results emphasize the importance of impervious surface and residential density as factors in water quality degradation, and well‐developed soil as a factor in water quality maintenance.     

THE APPLICATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELS TO SMALL WATERSHEDS HAVING MILD TOPOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: The application of hydrologic models to small watersheds of mild topography is not well documented. This study evaluates the applicability of hydrologic models described by Huggins and the Soil Conservation Service to small watersheds by comparing the simulated and actual hydrograph for both gaged and ungaged situations. The annual maximum rainfall events plus storms exceeding 2.5 inches from 25 years of rainfall and runoff data for two small watersheds were selected for the model evaluations. These storms had a variety of patterns and occurred on many different watershed conditions. Simulated and actual hydrographs were compared using a parameter which contained volume, peak, and shape factors. One-half of the selected storms were used to calibrate the models. For both models, there were no significant differences between the simulated and actual runoff volumes and peak runoff rates. Parameters obtained during the calibration process and relationships developed to estimate antecedent moisture and to modify tabulated runoff curve numbers were used to simulate the runoff hydrograph from the remaining storms. These remaining storms or test storms were simulated only once in order to imitate an ungaged situation. In general, both the Huggins and SCS model performed similarly on the test storms, but the level of model performance was lower than that for the calibration storms. For both models, the two-day antecedent rainfall was more important than the five-day in determining antecedent moisture and modifying tabulated curve numbers. The time of concentration which resulted in good hydrograph simulations was about three times larger than that estimated using published empirical relationships.     

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANCE AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS FOR RUNOFF FROM SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Significant parameters for predicting thunderstorm runoff from small semiarid watersheds are determined using data from the Walnut Gulch watershed in southern Arizona. Based on these data, thunderstorm rainfall is dominant over watershed parameters for predicting runoff from multiple linear regression equations. In some cases antecedent moisture added significantly to the models. A technique is developed for estimating precision of predicted values from multiple linear regression equations. The technique involves matrix methods in estimating the variance of mean predicted values from a regression equation. The estimated variance of the mean predicted value is then used to estimate the variance of an individual predicted value. A computer program is developed to implement these matrix methods and to form confidence limits on predicted values based on both a normality assumption and the Chebyshev inequality.     

FLOW PERSISTENCE AS A MODIFIER OF SEASONAL RUNOFF PATTERNS1

ABSTRACT: The effect of flow persistence on seasonal patterns of watershed runoff was modeled by using runoff of the immediate antecedent month as an index. Monthly runoff was expressed as a function of monthly rainfall, season of the year, and runoff of the antecedent month. The three independent variables were expressed functionally as sliding polynomials, thus producing a piece-wise, form-free, three-dimensional causative structure. A model form allowing complete interactivity of the three independent variables could not be optimized because of insufficient data with high values of both antecedent runoff and monthly rainfall. A model with reduced interactivity was successfully optimized. Data sets from five watersheds ranging from 0.14 to 398 square miles were analyzed. Results were presented as a series of contour maps that showed contours of monthly runoff in the data space of season and monthly rain. In the series of maps, the patterns of the runoff contours changed with changing values of antecedent runoff. During the wet season of the year the contours changed significantly with antecedent runoff, but changes in the dry season were minimal. The quantitative change of runoff was more readily portrayed with cross-sections through the contoured surfaces.     

RUNOFF RESPONSE FROM TWO RECLAIMED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Detailed studies of the surface hydrology of reclaimed surface-mined watersheds for both rainfall and snowmelt events are non-existent for central Alberta yet this information is crucial for design of runoff conveyance and storage structures. A study was initiated in 1992 with principal objectives of quantifying surface runoff for both summer rainfall and spring snowmelt events and identifying the dominant flow processes occurring in two reclaimed watersheds. Snowmelt accounted for 86 and 100% of annual watershed runoff in 1993 and 1994, respectively. The highest instantaneous peak flow was recorded during a summer rainfall event with a return period of greater than 50 years. Infiltration-excess overland flow was identified as the dominant flow process occurring within the Sandy Subsoil Watershed, whereas saturation overland flow was the principal runoff process occurring within the West Watershed.     

ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF NRCS MODELS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: In the last 30 years, the National Resource Conservation Service's TR‐55 and TR‐20 models have seen a dramatic increase in use for stormwater management purposes. This paper reviews some of the data that were originally used to develop these models and tests how well the models estimate annual series peak runoff rates for the same watersheds using longer historical data record lengths. The paper also explores differences between TR‐55 and TR‐20 peak runoff rate estimates and time of concentration methods. It was found that of the 37 watersheds tested, 25 were either over‐ or under‐predicting the actual historical watershed runoff rates by more than 30 percent. The results of this study indicate that these NRCS models should not be used to model small wooded watersheds less than 20 acres. This would be especially true if the watershed consisted of an area without a clearly defined outlet channel. This study also supports the need for regulators to allow educated hydrologists to alter pre‐packaged model parameters or results more easily than is currently permitted.     

Agricultural practices influence flow regimes of headwater streams in western Iowa

Agricultural tillage influences runoff and infiltration, but consequent effects on watershed hydrology are poorly documented. This study evaluated 25 yr (1971-1995) hydrologic records from four first-order watersheds in Iowa's loess hills. Two watersheds were under conventional tillage and two were under conservation (ridge) tillage, one of which was terraced. All four watersheds grew corn (Zea mays L.) every year. Flow-frequency statistics and autoregressive modeling were used to determine how conservation treatments influenced stream hydrology. The autoregressive modeling characterized variations in discharge, baseflow, and runoff at multi-year, annual, and shorter time scales. The ridge-tilled watershed (nonterraced) had 47% less runoff and 36% more baseflow than the conventional watershed of similar landform and slope. Recovery of baseflow after drought was quicker in the conservation watersheds, as evidenced by 365-d moving average plots, and 67% greater baseflow during the driest 2 yr. The two conventional watersheds were similar, except the steeper watershed discharged more runoff and baseflow during short (<30 d), wet periods. Significant multi-year and annual cycles occurred in all variables. Under ridge-till, seasonal (annual-cycle) variations in baseflow had greater amplitude, showing the seasonality of subsurface contaminant movement could increase under conservation practices. However, deviations from the modeled cycles of baseflow were also more persistent under conservation practices, indicating baseflow was more stable. Indeed, flow-frequency curves showed wet-weather discharge decreased and dry-weather discharge increased under conservation practices. Although mean discharge increased in the conservation watersheds, variance and skewness of daily values were smaller. Ridge tillage with or without terraces increased stream discharge but reduced its variability.     

A Water Allocation Decision‐Support Model and Tool for Predictions in Ungauged Basins in Northeast British Columbia,Canada

Pressures on water resources due to changing climate, increasing demands, and enhanced recognition of environmental flow needs result in the need for hydrology information to support informed water allocation decisions. However, the absence of hydrometric measurements and limited access to hydrology information in many areas impairs water allocation decision‐making. This paper describes a water balance‐based modeling approach and an innovative web‐based decision‐support hydrology tool developed to address this need. Using high‐resolution climate, vegetation, and watershed data, a simple gridded water balance model, adjusted to account for locational variability, was developed and calibrated against gauged watersheds, to model mean annual runoff. Mean monthly runoff was modeled empirically, using multivariate regression. The modeled annual runoff results are within 20% of the observed mean annual discharge for 78% of the calibration watersheds, with a mean absolute error of 16%. Modeled monthly runoff corresponds well to observed monthly runoff, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe statistic of 0.92 and a median Spearman rank correlation statistic of 0.98. Monthly and annual flow estimates produced from the model are incorporated into a map‐ and watershed‐based decision‐support system referred to as the Northeast Water Tool, to provide critical information to decision makers and others on natural water supply, existing allocations, and the needs of the environment.     

Evaluating Infiltration Requirements for New Development Using Extreme Storm Transposition: A Case Study from Dane County,WI

Changes in land use and extreme rainfall trends can lead to increased flood vulnerability in many parts of the world, especially for urbanized watersheds. This study investigates the performance of existing stormwater management strategies for the Upper Yahara watershed in Dane County, WI to determine whether they are adequate to protect urban and suburban development from an extreme rainfall. Using extreme storm transposition, we model the performance of the stormwater infiltration practices required for new development under current county ordinances. We find during extreme rainfall the volume of post‐development runoff from impervious surfaces from a typical site would increase by over 55% over pre‐development conditions. We recommend the ordinance be strengthened to reduce vulnerability to flooding from future urban expansion and the likely increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storms.     

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT LOADING'

ABSTRACT: This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on stream flow and nutrient loading in six watersheds of the Susquehanna River Basin using the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). The model was used to simulate changes in stream flow and nutrient loads under a transient climate change scenario for each watershed. Under an assumption of no change in land cover and land management, the model was used to predict monthly changes in stream flow and nutrient loads for future climate conditions. Mean annual stream flow and nutrient loads increased for most watersheds, but decreased in one watershed that was intensively cultivated. Nutrient loading slightly decreased in April and late summer for several watersheds as a result of early snowmelt and increasing evapotranspiration. Spatial and temporal variability of stream flow and nutrient loads under the transient climate scenario indicates that different approaches for future water resource management may be useful.     

BASE FLOW TRENDS IN URBANIZING WATERSHEDS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN1

Rapid land development is raising concern regarding the ability of urbanizing watersheds to sustain adequate base flow during periods of drought. Long term streamflow records from unregulated watersheds of the lower to middle Delaware River basin are examined to evaluate the impact of urbanization and imperviousness on base flow. Trends in annual base flow volumes, seven‐day low flows, and runoff ratios are determined for six urbanizing watersheds and four reference watersheds across three distinct physiographic regions. Hydrograph separation is used to determine annual base flow and stormflow volumes, and nonparametric trend tests are conducted on the resulting time series. Of the watersheds examined, the expected effects of declining base flow volumes and seven‐day low flows and increasing stormflows are seen in only one watershed that is approximately 20 percent impervious and has been subject to a net water export over the past 15 years. Both interbasin transfers and hydrologic mechanisms are invoked to explain these results. The results show that increases in impervious area may not result in measurable reductions in base flow at the watershed scale.     

Dry Weather Water Quality Loadings in Arid,Urban Watersheds of the Los Angeles Basin,California, USA1

Abstract: Dry weather runoff in arid, urban watersheds may consist entirely of treated wastewater effluent and/or urban nonpoint source runoff, which can be a source of bacteria, nutrients, and metals to receiving waters. Most studies of urban runoff focus on stormwater, and few have evaluated the relative contribution and sources of dry weather pollutant loading for a range of constituents across multiple watersheds. This study assessed dry weather loading of nutrients, metals, and bacteria in six urban watersheds in the Los Angeles region of southern California to estimate relative sources of each constituent class and the proportion of total annual load that can be attributed to dry weather discharge. In each watershed, flow and water quality were sampled from storm drain and treated wastewater inputs, as well as from in‐stream locations during at least two time periods. Data were used to calculate mean concentrations and loads for various sources. Dry weather loads were compared with modeled wet weather loads under a range of annual rainfall volumes to estimate the relative contribution of dry weather load. Mean storm drain flows were comparable between all watersheds, and in all cases, approximately 20% of the flowing storm drains accounted for 80% of the daily volume. Wastewater reclamation plants (WRP) were the main source of nutrients, storm drains accounted for almost all the bacteria, and metals sources varied by constituent. In‐stream concentrations reflected major sources, for example nutrient concentrations were highest downstream of WRP discharges, while in‐stream metals concentrations were highest downstream of the storm drains with high metals loads. Comparison of wet vs. dry weather loading indicates that dry weather loading can be a significant source of metals, ranging from less than 20% during wet years to greater than 50% during dry years.     

Characterization of Storm Flow Dynamics of Headwater Streams in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain1

Epps, Thomas H., Daniel R. Hitchcock, Anand D. Jayakaran, Drake R. Loflin, Thomas M. Williams, and Devendra M. Amatya, 2012. Characterization of Storm Flow Dynamics of Headwater Streams in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12000 Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring was conducted in two first‐order lower coastal plain watersheds in South Carolina, United States, a region with increasing growth and land use change. Storm events over a three‐year period were analyzed for direct runoff coefficients (ROC) and the total storm response (TSR) as percent rainfall. ROC calculations utilized an empirical hydrograph separation method that partitioned total streamflow into sustained base flow and direct runoff components. ROC ratios ranged from 0 to 0.32 on the Upper Debidue Creek (UDC) watershed and 0 to 0.57 on Watershed 80 (WS80); TSR results ranged from 0 to 0.93 at UDC and 0.01 to 0.74 at WS80. Variability in event runoff generation was attributed to seasonal trends in water table elevation fluctuation as regulated by evapotranspiration. Groundwater elevation breakpoints for each watershed were identified based on antecedent water table elevation, streamflow, ROCs, and TSRs. These thresholds represent the groundwater elevation above which event runoff generation increased sharply in response to rainfall. For effective coastal land use decision making, baseline watershed hydrology must be understood to serve as a benchmark for management goals, based on both seasonal and event‐based surface and groundwater interactions.     

EVALUATING HSPF IN AN ARID,URBANIZED WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is a powerful time variable hydrologic model that has rarely been applied in arid environments. Here, the performance of HSPF in southern California was assessed, testing its ability to predict annual volume, daily average flow, and hourly flow. The model was parameterized with eight land use categories and physical watershed characteristics. It was calibrated using rainfall and measured flow over a five‐year period in a predominantly undeveloped watershed and it was validated using a subsequent 4‐year period. The process was repeated in a separate, predominantly urbanized watershed over the same time span. Annual volume predictions correlated well with measured flow in both the undeveloped and developed watersheds. Daily flow predictions correlated well with measured flow following rain events, but predictions were poor during extended dry weather periods in the developed watershed. This modeling difficulty during dry‐weather periods reflects the large influence of, and the poor accounting in the model for, artificially introduced water from human activities, such as landscape overwatering, that can be important sources of water in urbanized arid environments. Hourly flow predictions mistimed peak flows, reflecting spatial and temporal heterogeneity of rainfall within the watershed. Model correlation increased considerably when predictions were averaged over longer time periods, reaching an asymptote after an 11‐hour averaging window.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Evaluation of regression methodology with low-frequency water quality sampling to estimate constituent loads for ephemeral watersheds in Texas

Water quality regulation and litigation have elevated the awareness and need for quantifying water quality and source contributions in watersheds across the USA. In the present study, the regression method, which is typically applied to large (perennial) rivers, was evaluated in its ability to estimate constituent loads (NO(3)-N, total N, PO(4)-P, total P, sediment) on three small (ephemeral) watersheds with different land uses in Texas. Specifically, regression methodology was applied with daily flow data collected with bubbler stage recorders in hydraulic structures and with water quality data collected with four low-frequency sampling strategies: random, rise and fall, peak, and single stage. Estimated loads were compared with measured loads determined in 2001-2004 with an autosampler and high-frequency sampling strategies. Although annual rainfall and runoff volumes were relatively consistent within watersheds during the study period, measured annual nutrient and sediment concentrations and loads varied considerably for the cultivated and mixed watersheds but not for the pasture watershed. Likewise, estimated loads were much better for the pasture watershed than the cultivated and mixed landuse watersheds because of more consistent land management and vegetation type in the pasture watershed, which produced stronger correlations between constituent loads and mean daily flow rates. Load estimates for PO(4)-P were better than for other constituents possibly because PO(4)-P concentrations were less variable within storm events. Correlations between constituent concentrations and mean daily flow rate were poor and not significant for all watersheds, which is different than typically observed in large rivers. The regression method was quite variable in its ability to accurately estimate annual nutrient loads from the study watersheds; however, constituent load estimates were much more accurate for the combined 3-yr period. Thus, it is suggested that for small watersheds, regression-based annual load estimates should be used with caution, whereas long-term estimates can be much more accurate when multiple years of concentration data are available. The predictive ability of the regression method was similar for all of the low-frequency sampling strategies studied; therefore, single-stage or random strategies are recommended for low-frequency storm sampling on small watersheds because of their simplicity.