近10年中国可持续发展研究进展与分析

可持续发展概念的提出以来,我国从学术界到社会各界分别进行了相应的研究和实践。可持续发展是一个涉及到自然、经济、社会三个子系统组成的动态、开放复杂系统,其研究内容涉及到地理学、资源管理、生态学、环境科学、人口学、系统工程、经济学、社会学等许多相关领域。为了实施闺家可持续发展战略．国寒加大了对可更新资源保护的力度、愿域生态环境建设工程的布局、区域综合减灾规划制定与工程的建设。与此间时。图家有关资源、环境、灾害管理等职能部门。从制定可持续发展途径出发．开展了大量的区域可持续发展研究。这些工作为区域可持续发展的理论和方法论建设提供了足够丰富的案例研究。利用中国知网网络平台和Google搜索引擎工具。检索并分析了我国可持续发展近10年的主要研究内容。即：可持续发展的理论研究、可持续发展的信息分类和指标体系以及评价的模型方法。在此基础上对今后的研究趋势进行了分析。认为可持续发展过程与机理研究、尺度问题、区域要素和地域结构的整合、区域综合集成以及区域要素变化、区域整体关系研究需要进一步加强。     

鄱阳湖区域旅游整体形象策划研究

在鄱阳湖区域内,以鄱阳湖为龙头,与周边湖口、星子、德安、永修、新建、南昌、进贤、余干、波阳、都昌诸县和九江市庐山区以及与鄱阳湖相近相通的南昌市区组成一个集名山、名江、名湖、名城为一体的独具特色的旅游圈。 为把鄱阳湖区域发展成为集旅游、度假、休闲、娱乐为一体的国内外著名的旅游目的地,湖区各级旅游组织和旅游目的地,应遵循整体性、地域性、市场性、持续性、大众参与性、可操作性原则,充分发挥鄱阳湖旅游业的经济、社会与环境功能,实施规模化经营、一体化发展战略,从理念识别（MI）、视觉识别（VI）、行为识别（BI）等角度协调构建旅游形象识别体系,在此基础上形成具有独特性与市场冲击力的总体形象理念,提炼出针对不同目标市场和消费群体的差异性极强的总体形象宣传口号,创造具有赣鄱特色的整体旅游新形象。根据鄱阳湖地脉、文脉、旅游资源特色与旅游产品主题,可将主题形象定位为：东方“山江湖”,世界“后花园”。与此相适应的整体形象宣传口号为：华夏“山江湖”都会之地,世界“山江湖”奇观胜境。     

Inventing the future: scenarios, imagination, mastery and control

The complexity of mixed social, behavioral, and natural systems—such as those encountered while analyzing, understanding, and trying to manage aspects of climate change and sustainability, requires more common theoretical frameworks and technical tools than either can bear. How does human activity relate to greenhouse gas emissions, changes in the atmosphere, climate variability, and multiple impacts, outcomes, and effects? Some of the connections can be observed and measured, many cannot. Uncertainties of every conceivable sort can occur. As the time frame into the future extends, uncertainties essentially dominate conventional theories, tools, experiences, habits, processes, and so forth. The scientific consensus linking human activity to climate change is now all but settled according to The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The consensus says little, however, about who should be doing what and for what reasons under this singular, even unique circumstance. There are no data about the future on which to rely. We are challenged to imagine many different and possible “futures” as humankind seeks to exert its mastery and control. This essay considers and then weaves together several basic issues, ideas, and topics: complexity, the concept of human intentionality, several means used to exert control in organizations and social systems, and different methods being used to imagine, invent, and communicate the future.     

Analysis of building environment assessment frameworks and their implications for sustainability indicators

Green construction is gaining increasing attention in the global context. However, the construction of sustainable green buildings and environments involves different tools and systems and diverse perspectives. Therefore, the development of environmental assessment tools is an important task for managing green housing and green building projects. In this paper, we discuss the benefits, limitations, and future directions of the assessment framework. There are four characteristics of building environmental assessment, i.e., comprehensiveness, design guideline, signaling, and communication tools, which afford both benefits and limitations. We illustrate the role of the assessment framework as a hub promoting integration of diverse knowledge, as a design guideline encouraging better design and action, as signaling environmentally friendly design and action, and as a communication tool. On the other hand, there are limitations, such as the use of a mixture of quantitative and qualitative measures, ambiguity of weighing, lack of financial evaluation, and lack of involvement of diverse disciplines and stakeholders. To develop an effective assessment framework, the following three factors must be considered: knowledge, power, and implementation. We propose that knowledge innovation, a credible approach for a salient solution, and collective action represent the future challenges of the assessment framework.     

长江流域资源环境研究信息系统的研制和应用

介绍了长江流域资源与环境研究信息系统的建立与应用。长江流域资源与环境研究信息系统包括4个数据库：（1）长江流域资源与环境信息库,包括长江流域的自然，自然保护区，行政区，社会，经济等方面的信息；（2）长江流域资源生态环境科学文献数据库，收录了有关研究长江流域水，土地，能源，破产，人力等各类资源的保护与开发，生态保护与建设，环境保护与重要，大型工程建设中的移民问题，城市与城市化，农业与农村发展，区域经济发展，环境变化与生物多样性等的文献；（3）长江流域自然灾害数据库，收录了长江流域发生物气象灾害，地质灾害，生物灾害等各类自然灾害；（4）长江流域网站导航，收集了有关长江流域的信息网站，配合用户友好的检索系统，用户可以快捷地找到所需信息。     

Impact of large industrial emission sources on mortality and morbidity in Chile: A small-areas study

Chile suffers significant pollution from large industrial emitters associated with the mining, metal processing, paper production, and energy industries. The aim of this research was to determine whether the presence of large industrial facilities (i.e. coal- and oil-fired power plants, pulp and paper mills, mining facilities, and smelters) affects mortality and morbidity rates in Chile. For this, we conducted an ecological study that used Chilean communes as small-area observation units to assess mortality and morbidity. Public databases provided information on large pollution sources relevant to Chile. The large sources studied were oil- and coal-fired power plants, copper smelters, pulp and paper mills, and large mining facilities. Large sources were filtered by first year of production, type of process, and size. Mortality and morbidity data were acquired from public national databases, with morbidity being estimated from hospitalization records. Cause-specific rates were calculated for the main outcomes: cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer; and other more specific health outcomes. The impact of the large pollution sources was estimated using Bayesian models that included spatial correlation, overdispersion, and other covariates. Large and significant increases in health risks (around 20%–100%) were found for communes with power plants and smelters for total, cardiovascular, respiratory, all-cancer, and lung cancer mortality. Higher hospitalization rates for cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cancer, and pneumonia (20–100%) were also found for communes with power plants and smelters. The impacts were larger for men than women in terms of both mortality and hospitalizations. The impacts were also larger when the sources were analyzed as continuous (production volume) rather than dichotomous (presence/absence) variables. In conclusion, significantly higher rates of total cardiovascular, respiratory, all-cancer and lung cancer mortality and cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and pneumonia hospitalizations were observed in communes with power plants and smelters.     

Indigenous capacity for collaboration in Canada’s energy,forestry and mining sectors: research metrics and trends

This paper examines patterns in recently published research addressing Indigenous capacity for collaborative natural resource development in Canada’s forestry, energy, and mining sectors. As Indigenous involvement in natural resource development increases, so too does the body of associated scholarship. We gathered information on several core metrics (year of publication, authorship, and gender, author affiliation, journal titles, citation counts and impacts factors, and keywords) to analyze research output, trends, and gaps. Our bibliometric analysis of 49 articles from peer-reviewed journals confirms that Indigenous natural resource development and capacity research has steadily increased over the past decade in terms of the number and range of papers, authors, institutions, and cases examined. Research output peaked in 2013 and 2015. Authorship is distributed evenly between male and female lead researchers, with teams located across southern Canada, with highest concentrations in urban population centers of British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario. In contrast, the research sites are located in more northern, rural, and remote locations. That communities and projects under study are not currently matched with sites of research capacity raises questions about capacity building and the nature of research “on” versus “with” Indigenous peoples. Policies and programs designed to enhance Indigenous involvement and capacity must address these asymmetries in order to be representative, effective, and responsive to current Indigenous priorities.     

浙江省陆路交通可达性与经济社会协调性研究

以浙江省69个县（市）为研究对象，利用1996、2004、2012年交通路网和经济社会数据，采用加权平均旅行时间指标、主成分分析法和耦合协调度模型，探讨城市综合交通可达性时空演变及其与经济社会耦合协调发展关系。研究结果表明：（1）1996~2012年，城市综合交通可达性以及经济社会发展水平均出现不同程度提高，两者耦合协调关系逐渐由低水平向高水平转变；（2）协调性存在空间分异，环杭州湾、金丽衢平原、温台平原城市协调性普遍高于西部低山丘陵地区城市，地级市辖区协调性普遍高于各县(县级市)；（3）协调性空间格局演变显著，呈现出由东北向西南、中心城市向周围县域梯度改善现象，且逐等级类型提升特征显著。总体上来看，浙江省城市可达性演变及与经济社会的耦合协调关系，体现了区域经济社会发展以及交通基础设施完善的结果     

国内外典型水治理模式及对武汉水治理的借鉴

通过国内外典型水治理模式的研究和比较,提出武汉市水治理的对策建议。采用了比较和归纳的方法,对日本、美国以及我国上海、北京的水治理模式进行了研究,归纳出强制性水污染治理模式、流域性水生态治理模式、景观性水环境治理模式、综合性水系治理模式四大典型水治理模式。在比较研究的基础上,提出水治理要正确处理好与水生态环境、水污染防治、城市形象、城市文化、经济发展、防汛抗洪的关系的结论。为使武汉市水资源发挥最大经济效益、社会效益和环境效益,提出保护“水生态”、提高“水质量”、建设“水景观”、丰富“水文化”、开发“水经济”、确保“水安全”等对策建议。     

The transition to a sustainable society: a new social contract

This paper explores issues that are central to ecological economics. In spite of a substantial body of research and other literature that has appeared in recent decades on transition, and countless other efforts, no progress has been made to halt the increase in global warming, global emissions, rampant population growth, or several hundred other critical planet sustainability indicators including global species extinction. The opposite is true. Consumption has escalated and it is poised to double and, with it, planetary decay has followed closely. The aim of this work is to introduce a pragmatic solution and the economics mechanisms solidly rooted in science, in the laws of conservation of mass and energy, and in environmental and ecological sustainability that are necessary to overcome the tremendous forces of social, political, and economic resistance to major change. To advance towards a sustainable civilization, adopting a holistic approach with those underlying principles in all aspects of human activity, among others economy, finance, industry, commerce, engineering, politics, architecture, and education, is both lacking and fundamentally required. A short review of the state-of-the-art of the science on the critical status of the planet’s resources and its life-supporting systems is presented, as well as a brief catalog of the seminal works of the science that gave rise to its metrics and established early on the groundwork for the understanding of the degree of sustainability of the planet. We present the argument why past and current schemes of human economics, organization, culture, and politics cannot achieve anything else, but complete and utter failure under their own underlying precepts. A rigorous and disciplined process on how to overcome and avoid the precipitous decline and collapse of the environmental and planetary biosystems on which all life depends, including human life, and a new view towards the world and the universe we all have no choice but to live in, are also offered.     

中国固体废物管理政策变迁逻辑与完善路径

系统梳理固体废物管理政策的变迁逻辑,研究固体废物管理政策的聚焦内容和发展趋向,有助于明晰固体废物管理政策完善路径。研究立足于已颁布的固体废物管理政策,运用统计方法分析固体废物管理政策的文本结构和内容,找出中国固体废物管理政策变迁的内在逻辑;紧密结合当前“无废城市”建设的政策需求,提出政策优化完善路径。研究发现:固体废物管理政策文本类型多元、效力级别多样,政策框架体系逐步优化完善;固体废物管理政策热点具有鲜明的时代发展烙印和动态演变特征,政策涉及的领域越来越广,政策内容更具针对性和全面性,政策执行更具指向性和可操作性;无害化、减量化、资源化,污染防治、监督管理、二次污染、回收利用、循环经济等是政策关注焦点;政府从宏观层面强化顶层设计,以政策引导规范为主,注重政策协同、技术支撑、治理水平提升等助推无害化、减量化、资源化目标实现;固体废物管理政策实施的工具手段多元化、要素支撑多样化,固体废物管理的技术支撑关注度逐步提升、管理模式与治理路径已进入适应性转型。立足现实需要,固体废物管理的市场化政策与激励机制不足,适用性技术关注度不高,综合管理水平和治理能力亟待提升。结合国外“无废城市”建设的理论研究、实践行动和政策举措,从固体废物生命周期管理政策、技术范式政策、主体协同政策、引导激励政策及法律法规政策等方面提出中国“无废城市”建设的政策完善路径方向。     

西部在实施可持续发展战略中人为灾害不容忽视

西部属于我国重灾区,而且,人为灾害相当严重。文章在对西部人为灾害剖析的基础上,建议国家、政府及有关部门在制定西部开发计划、招商投资和工程建设中,要把交通、火灾、水源、矿山、工业等方面的安全减灾防灾工种纳入到开发、建设、管理的体系之中;特别强调,在大西北开发与建设中,要大力倡导和弘扬安全文化、预防文化（减灾文化）、环保文化,提高全民族的安全减灾环保科技文化素质。     

1990-2015年世界能源时空演变特征研究

能源系统是从能源开采、能源生产到能源运输,再到终端消费或储备全过程的系统工程.能源在区域之间的运输促进了世界能源网络的形成,随着时间推移和各种外部因素的变化,能源空间格局也随着发生剧烈的变化.基于1990-2015年195个国家能源生产消费数据和贸易矩阵,采用双因子趋势图法和社会网络分析法分析世界能源生产、消费与运输的时空演变特征.结果表明:①世界能源的生产主要分布在中东、亚太、前苏联、北美、中南美和西北非,原油、天然气和煤炭的空间格局也存在差异.②世界能源消费增长存在波动,高消费量高增长率的区域分布在亚太和新兴经济体,欧洲能源消费放缓,北美、日本、俄罗斯消费出现负增长趋势.③从世界能源运输来看,能源出口集中在前苏联、中东、西北非和中南美地区,能源进口集中在亚太及欧美地区;世界能源运输整体流动性增强,中东和北非局部时期存在波动;能源生产国外向中心性不断攀升,亚太和新兴经济体内向中心性增长最快;形成“核心-次核心-节点”的层级结构,欧洲地位下降,亚太作用增强,多元化趋势显现;能源运输存在8条主要路径.④经济增长、政治局势、国家关系以及能源开发技术都对世界能源时空格局产生重大影响,各国也纷纷通过能源来源多样化、双多边合作、能源战略储备、新能源开发保证自身能源安全.随着页岩油气开发技术、新能源技术的发展普及,尤其是煤炭消费在世界范围的放缓锐减,未来世界能源空间格局也即将发生重大调整.     

建设4亿亩高标准基本农田的思考与建议

近年来,高标准基本农田建设日益受到党中央和国务院的高度重视,大规模建设高标准基本农田已经上升为国家层面的战略部署和总体安排。"十二五"时期我国将在已有基础上再建成4亿亩旱涝保收高标准基本农田,此举对于增强我国粮食安全保障能力、加快我国农业现代化发展,以及深化和扩展耕地数量、质量和生态全面管护内涵等具有重要意义。在"十二五"时期要实现既定目标,既面临着建设任务艰巨、资金存在缺口、监管难度较大等困难和挑战,但也具备较为扎实的工作基础,如初步建立了较为科学合理的工作机制、部署开展了各级土地整治规划、颁布出台了相关规章制度等。为确保"十二五"期间完成4亿亩高标准基本农田建设任务,文章建议通过积极主动的统筹谋划、大胆务实的改革创新,加快推进这项工作,主要包括:加快编制实施地方各级土地整治规划、健全高标准基本农田建设的工作机制、创新土地整治资金的使用和管理机制,以及加大高标准基本农田建设的监管力度等。     

旅游资源资本化的机制和方法

针对目前我国旅游资源开发和管理方面存在的突出问题以及旅游实践发展的需要，提出“旅游资源资本化”--一种新的以价值为导向的旅游资源开发管理的理念和方法，强调了旅游资源的价值性、所有性和收益性。在国家政策和法律允许的前提下，旅游资源的所有者将旅游资源作为一种资本形态，与货币资本、实物资本、人力资本等一起投入到旅游开发活动中，进行市场化的开发、经营、运作和管理，从而带来良好的经济效益、环境效益和社会效益，使旅游资源实现价值增值，而旅游资源的所有者也从中获得经营收益。深入探讨了旅游资源转化为旅游资本的内部机制、外部条件、实现途径、方法模式等问题，指出旅游资源资本化有利于拓宽旅游融资渠道、优化资源配置、提高旅游资源的利用效率和开发管理的水平，实现旅游产业的可持续发展.     

Future directions in air-quality science,policy, and education

On February 12-15, 2001, more than 200 scientists, engineers, decision makers, and educators participated in a conference on the "Future Directions in Air Quality Research: Ecological, Atmospheric, Regulatory/Policy, and Educational Issues." Important perspectives are summarized from the keynote addresses of noted scientists and educators, as well as managers in government, industry, and public interest groups. Observations and recommendations are provided to stimulate further thought about how to increase opportunities to make greater use of scientific knowledge in air-quality decision making and to ensure that decisions are effective, economically viable, health and ecologically sound, and socially acceptable. Recommendations are given regarding ways in which communications between scientists and policy makers should be structured so as to make appropriate and effective use of scientists and the knowledge they can provide in policy-making fora.     

Research core and framework of sustainability science

This paper reviews recent achievements in sustainability science and discusses the research core and framework of sustainability science. We analyze and organize papers published in three selected core journals of sustainability science: Sustainability Science, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, and Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy. Papers are organized into three categories: sustainability and its definition, domain-oriented research, and a research framework for sustainability science. First, we provide a short history and define the basic characteristics of sustainability; then we review current efforts in the following research domains: climate, biodiversity, agriculture, fishery, forestry, energy and resources, water, economic development, health, and lifestyle. Finally, we propose a research framework for sustainability science that includes the following components: goal setting, indicator setting, indicator measurement, causal chain analysis, forecasting, backcasting, and problem–solution chain analysis. We emphasize the importance of this last component for improving situations and attaining goals.     

基于水生态功能区的巢湖环湖带生态服务功能评价

水生态功能区被认为是流域生态环境保护、治理与修复的基本单元,以其为基础进行生态服务功能评估对于流域内的土地利用结构优化配置、生态环境保护、治理与修复等都有重要的意义。选取巢湖环湖带,采用物质量的方法,对其12种生态服务功能进行评价,其中陆域生态系统4种,水域生态系统8种。研究结果表明:(1)研究区生态系统服务功能空间差异明显,南部和东北部较高,西北部和东南部较低;而研究区单位面积生态服务功能西部较高,东部较低;(2)生态服务功能总量较高的区域,其单位面积生态服务功能并不一定高;(3)环湖带生态系统服务功能的管理和恢复既要考虑生态服务功能总量的大小,也要考虑单位面积生态服务功能的大小,依据实际情况区别对待,生态服务功能较强的地区,应积极发挥其生态功能的优势,在保护与治理并重的情况下充分发挥其生态服务功能;生态服务功能较弱的地区,应采取一定的措施,在保护的基础上对其生态服务功能进行恢复。     

我国生态旅游利益相关者分析

发展生态旅游需要在不同利益主体之间建立一个合理的利益协调和分配机制，而利益相关者角色的错位、缺位，其间关系的交叉、矛盾是制约我国生态旅游发展的关键。为了确保生态旅游的可持续发展，需要对现有的利益相关者角色和关系进行调整。真正使政府、当地牡区，旅游企业、保护地、旅游者、非政府组织、学术界及相关机构、媒体分别扮演好调控者、参与和受益者、执行者、执行监督者、实践者。协助者、研究指导者、宣传监督者的角色。     

CGE model-based analysis of the neutralized hybrid carbon policy and its decomposed effects on economic growth,carbon reduction,and energy utilization costs

The hybrid policy is a flexible policy tool that combines features of carbon trading and carbon taxation.Its economic and environmental effects under China's background are still not studied in detail.Given the exogenous carbon reduction targets,carbon prices,and carbon tax-rates,by computable general equilibrium modeling methods and factor decomposition methods,this article investigates direct and cascaded effects of the hybrid policy on economic growth,energy utilization,and carbon emission on the national level and the sector level,with China's national input-output data-set.Stepwisely,policy scenarios with irrational estimated results are selectively excluded based on comprehensive evaluation among economic,carbon reduction and other policy targets.As a result,against national economic conditions in 2007,the hybrid policy,with a carbon reduction target of -10%,a carbon tax-rate of around $10,and a ceiling carbon price of $40,is highly recommended,because of its significant lower economic loss,lower energy utilization cost,and practical robustness against fluctuation of energy market and carbon market.Furthermore,by decomposition analysis,carbon reduction-related costs are decomposed into a direct part that includes carbon allowance price and carbon tax,and an indirect part as the energy price incremental induced by direct carbon costs.Gross carbon reduction may be decomposed into three parts such as energy intensity,economic scale,and technical progress.And,carbon taxation is the main policy tool that stimulates to improve the energy efficiency.