A new approach to natural capital sustainable development

The three-dimension (3D) ecological footprint makes the analysis of the relationships between the demand and supply of natural capital more credible by importing footprint depth and footprint size. This article used China’s regions as the object to analyze the high-level sustainability of the natural capital from the view of “ecology – efficiency – fairness” multidimensional framework. Research showed that China’s ecological footprint has risen while bio-capacity per capita has descended in recent 20 years. This paper also discusses the spatial distribution of China’s natural capital ecological sustainability, efficiency sustainability and fairness sustainability. Finally, it builds multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) models to get multidimensional sustainability framework taking ecological sustainability, efficiency sustainability, and fairness sustainability into consideration.     

绿色经济新理念及中国开展绿色经济研究的思考

联合国里约20周年世界峰会的重要内容之一是倡导绿色经济。绿色经济的概念最早在1989年由英国环境经济学家Pearce提出,但现在的绿色经济却具有全新的意义。本文基于参加联合国有关绿色新政和绿色经济的政策咨询和研究报告,论述了绿色经济的基本背景、三重效益、研究模型以及绿色经济与生活质量的关系,对如何开展中国绿色经济研究进行探讨。首先,文章认为在深入探讨绿色经济前,需要了解当前发展绿色经济的基本背景,明确为什么要发展绿色经济、什么才是我们所需要的绿色经济,以及怎样促进绿色经济发展三个基本问题。其二,绿色经济与褐色经济的情景模拟表明,绿色经济发展模式具有更好的三重底线效益。联合国的T-21模型对过去40年(1970-2010)及未来40年(2010-2050)进行了绿色情景与褐色情景两种模拟,认为在自然资本的环境收益方面,绿色经济发展情景下自然资本的退化得到了基本遏制,而褐色经济发展情景下自然资本的退化会进一步增强;在物质资本的经济收益方面,绿色经济发展情景下,2020年以前经济增长率(2.5%)会低于褐色经济(3%),但从长期平均增长率看绿色经济发展模式(2.5%)可以带来比褐色经济发展模式(2%)更好的经济增长;在人力资本的社会效益方面,在2030年以前绿色经济发展情景下就业机会有小幅减少,但长期来看,绿色经济能够创造与褐色经济同样多的就业机会,甚至可以有小幅的增加(0.6%)。其三,绿色经济研究模型表明,绿色经济投资于自然资本可以实现所需要的经济社会发展与自然资本消耗的脱钩。绿色经济假说是:将资金投资于提高资源能源效率与扩大自然资本两个方面,是否能够导致更好的经济社会发展。基于该理论假设,联合国等国际组织将自然资本引入生产函数,建立了Threshold-21模型,证明绿色经济即投资于自然资本可以实现所需要的经济社会发展与自然资本消耗的脱钩。其四,绿色经济发展模式不仅有利于经济增长,同时能够增加生活质量。绿色经济假说,强调了绿色投资对生活质量有正的影响。通过生态绩效模型、结构方程模型以及典型案例研究等三种方法进行分析,研究表明:减少自然资本消耗可以减少生态环境的治理成本和维护成本、维持与增加自然资本对人类的功能;可以提高自然资本的生产效率,用较少的自然资本投入达到社会稳定所需要的人造资本;可以提高人造资本的服务效率,用一定的物质存量为更多的人服务。其五,开展深化中国绿色经济理论与绿色发展模式的系统研究。联合国等国际组织倡导的绿色经济可以给我们发展中国的绿色经济带来新的启示,笔者认为对中国绿色经济理论与绿色发展模式开展深入和系统的研究,应该包括理论内涵、实证分析、发展情景、行动领域、政策体系等五个依次递进、前后照应的研究模块。     

Application of a tri-capital community resilience framework for assessing the social–ecological system sustainability of community-based forest management in the Philippines

This study proposes and empirically tests a framework that integrates the concepts of community resilience and social–ecological system (SES) resilience through community forestry case studies. The framework provides a possible approach for assessing community resilience based on the development and allocation of socio-cultural, economic, and natural capital of individual households within a given forest community. Furthermore, aspects of SES resilience and system dynamics are used to define the potential state thresholds of community resilience. This exploratory attempt to quantify community resilience, using the proposed framework, aims to advance understanding of the conceptual overlaps of SES and community resilience as applied to forestry management. We consider community forestry groups as SES examples in which the community is an important stakeholder in managing natural forest capital. We selected pioneer communities under the community-based forest management (CBFM) Program in the Philippines as our case studies. We found that, on average, CBFM group members demonstrated moderate levels of resilience according to their acquired levels of capital. Although economic capital remained the weakest capital, the CBFM program had a positive effect in increasing the socio-cultural and natural capital of an entire community.     

甘肃省"资源-环境-经济系统"动态仿真研究

立足于生态经济理论,利用系统模型方法。构建了对有关区域发展政策的可能结果进行动态仿真的模拟实验室。对甘肃省“资源-环境-经济”系统运行规律进行探索和实证研究。旨在描述甘肃省“资源-环境-经济系统”可能的运行情景。为甘肃省的可持续发展决策提供参考。模型运行的结果表明：甘肃省目前的发展模式是不可持续的；技术对自然资源表现为弱可替代性；转变经济发展模式是实现甘肃省可持续发展的唯一途径。     

人类社会可持续发展的资本视角

由于当代人与后代人共同占有整个地球，因此从理论上讲，解决代际公平问题成为可持续发展理论研究的首要问题。从经济学角度讲。整个资本世界可以分为人力资本、人造资本、环境资本、社会资本等四个组成部分，分析表明，不同类型资本之间的替代与互补关系，对维持可持续发展至关重要。尤其，应该大力培育人力资本与环境友好的社会资本。     

The disappearing sustainability triangle: community level considerations

This article challenges the application of the sustainability triangle to conceptualise sustainable development by looking at how weak sustainability can be obtained via the reinforcing increase in social capital and natural capital. Sustainable development is often visualised as a triangle consisting of social, environmental, and economic aspects. Would it be possible to conceive a flattened system, with diminishing economic resources or without refilling financial resources? The possibility involves mutual reinforcement between social capital and natural capital. The consideration of the diminishing economic dimension relates to the concept of development without economic growth, such as degrowth, zero-growth, and sustainable growth, that has been revived in the face of the recent economic crisis. Several countries have imposed extreme budget cuts in development collaboration and in other government expenditures. When the economic resource is not at a satisfactory level, can we rely on the reinforcement between social and environmental aspects for sustainability? Although it is not new to acknowledge the contribution of social capital to environmental conservation, research has long ignored the reinforcing relationship between environmental and social dimensions. This article provides a prototype model to demonstrate how social capital and natural capital can reinforce each other. The prototype is studied and verified at the community level using a comparative method. This article concludes with principles and practices that may encourage sustainability with merely the reinforcement between social capital and natural capital.     

The Green Economy: Reconceptualizing the Natural Commons as Natural Capital

The green economy is an emergent approach to sustainable development launched at Rio+20. Herein environmental decision-making is increasingly achieved through economistic processes and logic. The natural commons are quantified and managed as natural capital. This paper summarizes the trajectory of the project and its ideological framework. It examines various conceptualizations of economic approaches to the environment and considers philosophical, methodological, and political problems associated with the green economy project. In the face of very different definitions of what constitutes a green economy, environmental communicators face a situation characterized by discursive confusion as the complexity of natural capital accounting processes conceal new political configurations. Counter movements argue that the green economy program is performing ideological work that uses language of environmentalism to obscure an intensified agenda of neoliberal governance and capital accumulation. The concept now has contradictory meanings. Environmental communicators have an important role to play in exposing the contested nature of the project and in helping to define the emerging green economy.     

Plan C： China＇s Development under the Scarcity of Natural Capital

The critical issue of China＇s modernization is whether it can free itself from the traditional modernization plan based on the relatively abundant natural capital, and innovatively create a developmental model of a large country under the scarcity of natural capital. This is why China is so keen on circular economy and economical use of resources. Focused on this issue, this paper summarizes the theoretical elements of the development under the scarcity of natural capital, points out that Plan C is the strategic choice for China＇s future development, emphasizes that China needs to enhance the new industrialization, new urbanization and new modernization based on the restriction of natural capital, and discusses the technological and mechanistic support required to realize the development under the scarcity of natural capital.     

Research on the hierarchical structure of the metropolitan system and economic development of the provincial capital urban circle in Shandong

Regional development is the trend for future urbanization, and the urban circle is a highly efficient economic spatial pattern of regional development. This study selects statistical data of urban area population, GDP, and the output value of tertiary industry for seven cities in China – Jinan, Zibo, Tai’an, Laiwu, Dezhou, Liaocheng, and Binzhou – in the Shandong provincial capital urban circle from 2005 to 2009. It uses the principles and Zipf model, rank-size rule, and Lotka logarithmic model to analyze and study the hierarchical structure of the metropolitan system and economic development of the Shandong provincial capital urban circle. Based on the above research, this paper provides references for decision-making on enhancement of the metropolitan system structure, improvement in core city primacy index, the optimal adjustment of industrial structure and the optimal allocation of essential resources.     

生计资本与生计策略关系研究——以张掖市甘州区为例

农民的生计安全与质量问题是当今中国农村的核心问题,稳定的生计可以使有关的政策协调发展、消除贫困并可持续地利用资源.本文采用可持续生计框架为研究基础,农户的生计资产为框架核心,通过建立可持续生计评价指标体系,对农户的生计资产状况和由此决定的资产配置方式--生计策略及二者之间的关系进行初步的研究探讨.结果表明:对张掖市甘州区农户而盲,物质资本的值最高(其值为0.609),人力资本的数值相对较高(其值为0.516),社会资本次之(其值为0.354),金融资本和自然资本的数值相对较低(其值分别为0.286和0.241).在其他条件不变的情况下,自然资本每增加一个单位,将引起农户选择以非农为主与以农业为主生计策略的发生比缩小0.119倍;当其他解释变量不变时,金融资本每增加一个单位,将引起农户选择以非农为主与以农业为主生计策略的发生比扩大9.698倍.所以要想实现农户生计多样化,加强农户抵御风险的能力,政府就必须加强对其资金、技术等方面的支持,使其有能力和资本储备从农业生产转向二、三产业,从而促使农户生计水平得以提高.     

The Zambian Resource Curse and its influence on Genuine Savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainable development

The empirical evidence that economies predominantly reliant on their natural resources are characterized by slower economic growth—the so-called Resource Curse (RC)—is in many ways confirmed by the case of Zambia. Haber and Menaldo (Am Polit Sci Rev 105(1):1–26, 2011) identify Zambia’s extreme dependence on copper exports as one of the worldwide most striking examples for a country suffering from this “curse.” In topical literature, the RC is traced back to the generation of natural resource rents regardless of economic performance, which among other problems leads to suboptimal reinvestment. The World Banks indicator for the “weak” sustainable development of a country—the so-called Genuine Savings (GS)—considers exactly this reinvestment of rents from the depletion of natural capital rents into physical or human capital. Although it has been shown empirically that countries dependent on primary exports on average feature negative GS rates and that the determinants of the RC influence both present economic growth and future sustainability as measured by GS, no case studies have been conducted to confirm this. Against this background, we qualitatively survey the relationship between the most discussed determinants causing the RC in Zambia and the country’s GS rate. We show that all theoretical relationships between the GS rates of a country and RC determinants such as consumption behavior, volatile world market prices, the so-called Dutch disease as well as political and institutional structures apply to Zambia between 1964 and 2010: an extreme dependency on copper exports and insufficient reinvestments of income from the depletion of Zambia’s natural capital constitutes one of the main reasons for slow growth and negative GS until the copper price booms in the second half of the 2000s.     

Sustainable management of transboundary river basins: a line of reasoning

This paper identifies a line of reasoning based on a number of concepts and tools to facilitate river basin management, which have been applied in a case study. For long-term sustainable river basin management, a balance is needed between the human use of the river and its basin, the ecological functioning of the river and receiving waters, and the river's capacity to supply goods and services. To find such a balance a framework is needed that illustrates and clarifies possible trade-offs between economic use and environmental supply by integrating scientific information on cause–effect chains on a catchment scale. A number of concepts and tools are proposed as a basis for this framework. The tools are: (1) indicators that describe the complex interactions and processes in rivers; (2) a suite of linked models that predict the economic, environmental and ecological effect of management measures; (3) an evaluation framework to rank different management alternatives on the basis of three objectives: economic efficiency, spatial equity in costs and benefits and environmental quality of the river and receiving lakes. The concept of environmental quality defines the potential of the river environment (i.e. natural capital) to contribute to human welfare. The concept of environmental functions is used to identify societal interest in natural capital. The concept and tools have been applied in a case study involving the evaluation of four management strategies on nutrient abatement in the Rhine basin. The result of the case study is that economic efficiency is in conflict with spatial equity and environmental quality. Spatial equity is in agreement with environmental quality. Electronic Publication     

生态脆弱区自然资本可持续利用及驱动机制--以宁夏为例

自然资本的分类测度和分区管理是可持续发展领域的核心议题。文章基于改进后的三维生态足迹模型,分析了2008—2017年宁夏及其各地级市自然资本利用的时空演变特征,并运用偏最小二乘法揭示了自然资本利用演变的驱动机制,旨在为生态脆弱区自然资本的可持续利用、社会经济的协调发展和生态文明建设提供参考。结果显示:①10年来宁夏人均生态足迹以年均5.01%的速率从3.146 hm²增至4.564 hm²,人均生态承载力相对稳定,人均生态赤字由2.462 hm²扩大至3.839 hm²,自然资本的供需矛盾愈加尖锐;市域尺度上,除固原市外其他各市生态赤字明显,总体上呈由南向北递增趋势。②足迹深度和足迹广度表明流量资本已无法满足需求,对存量资本的消耗成为社会经济发展的常态;市域尺度上,足迹深度呈“北高南低”的分布特征,而足迹广度的空间分布与其相反,二者存在显著的地域互补性。③从地类组分构成来看,林地、草地和水域是全区存量资本消耗的主要方式,耕地尚处于流量资本占用状态,建筑用地已过渡为存量资本;市域尺度上,自然资本利用的可持续性呈“南强北弱”格局,各地类间自然资本利用差异显著。④偏最小二乘回归模型揭示能源消耗、社会消费、经济发展和资源禀赋条件是影响宁夏自然资本利用的显著因素,而人口规模、对外贸易、生态建设、科技进步和产业结构演化对自然资本利用的影响程度较轻;市域尺度上自然资本利用的驱动力差异显著。最后,基于自然资本利用空间分异特征,从供需视角提出了自然资本可持续利用的对策建议和优化路径。     

城市可持续发展的关键自然资本研究

城市是社会、经济与环境相互作用最为集中与深刻的区域，随着城市环境问题的日益严重，城市可持续发展成为共同关注的焦点。自然资本在可持续发展体系中起到关键的作用，因此，识别城市系统的关键自然资本是实现城市可持续发展的前提。通过分析城市绿色空间的生态服务功能，结果表明绿色空间是影响城市可持续发展的重要的自然资本。在此基础上，提出了通过保护与投资于绿色空间两种途径实现城市可持续发展的措施与建议。     

On the concept of sustainability – assessing the sustainability of large public infrastructure investment projects

Assessing the sustainability of large public investment projects within the general framework of three-pillar thinking is a complex affair. Such ventures involve multiple actors – e.g. planners from various disciplines such as engineers, economists and social scientists, in addition to politicians, users and other people affected – each carrying with them particular agendas and priorities, and corresponding understandings of the concept of sustainability. In this paper, we propose to frame the concept of sustainability assessment within the context of investment projects, in order to enable communication between the multiple actors, to assess different impacts of an investment project against one another in a meaningful way and, ultimately, to enhance the commensurability of investment project alternatives. Our main idea is that there exist different levels according to which the assessment of sustainability ought to refer – operational, tactical and strategic – and that properly addressing these levels can permit the different actors to comprehend one another, and thereby allow for more clarity and positive action.     

Environmental accounting of natural capital and ecosystem services for the US National Forest System

The National Forests of the United States encompass 192.7?million acres (78?million hectares) of land, which is nearly five percent of the total land area of the nation. These lands are managed by the US Forest Service (USFS) for multiple uses, including extraction of timber, production of fossil fuels and minerals, public recreation, and the preservation of biodiversity, clean air, water, and soils. The USFS is interested in valuing the natural capital within, and the ecosystem services provided by, their lands. This is in part to justify expenditures in a time of limited resources. We used emergy and an environmental accounting approach, to quantify the ecosystem services, the exported environmental goods and information provided by National Forest System (NFS) lands, and the natural capital residing on those lands. Environmental accounting using emergy provides a method to value these flows of services and storages of capital using a common biophysical unit, the solar emjoule and its monetary equivalent the emdollar. We compare emdollar values to economic values gleaned from the literature. In 2005, the ecosystem services provided by USFS lands were equivalent to 197?billion emdollars, and the value of NFS natural capital was 24.3?trillion emdollars. Our evaluation suggests that the Federal Government budget allocation for the NFS ($5.55E+09 in 2005) was well spent, protecting 24.3?trillion emdollars in natural capital and insuring annual ecosystem services totaling 197?billion emdollars. Monetary values for some natural capital and ecosystem services are similar to emergy-derived values (resources like fish, wildlife, water, and firewood extracted from forests), and others are widely different (biodiversity, fossil, and mineral resources). There is large uncertainty associated with computing the environment’s contributions to society whether using emergy or accepted economic techniques; yet, the magnitude of these emergy-derived estimates suggests that even with the uncertainty, the values are significant and monetary expenditures for the Forest Service are justified.     

Modelling livelihoods and household resilience to droughts using Bayesian networks

Over the last four decades, the Indian government has been investing heavily in watershed development (WSD) programmes that are intended to improve the livelihoods of rural agrarian communities and maintain or improve natural resource condition. Given the massive investment in WSD in India, and the recent shift from micro-scale programmes (<500 ha) to meso-scale (~5000 ha) clusters, robust methodological frameworks are needed to measure and analyse impacts of interventions across landscapes as well as between and within communities. In this paper, the sustainable livelihoods framework is implemented using Bayesian networks (BNs) to develop models of drought resilience and household livelihoods. Analysis of the natural capital component model provides little evidence that watershed development has influenced household resilience to drought and indicators of natural capital, beyond an increased area of irrigation due to greater access to groundwater. BNs have proved a valuable tool for implementing the sustainable livelihoods framework in a retrospective evaluation of implemented WSD programmes. Many of the challenges of evaluating watershed interventions using BNs are the same as for other analytical approaches. These are reliance on retrospective studies, identification and measurement of relevant indicators and isolating intervention impacts from contemporaneous events. The establishment of core biophysical and socio-economic indicators measured through longitudinal household surveys and monitoring programmes will be critical to the success of BNs as an evaluation tool for meso-scale WSD.     

生态系统服务功能及其价值核算

生态系统服务功能是指生态系统服务与生态系统功能的综合，指生态系统与生态过程所形成及所维持的人类赖以生存的自然环境条件与效用，生态系统服务功能对于人类生存发展具有重要的价值，应该在社会经济体系中得以体现，本文探讨了生态系统服务功能的类型，价值核算方法与理论及其应用研究在完善国民经济核算体系、促进可持续发展等方面的重要意义，并对今后发展进行了展望。     

Impact of Growing Income Inequality on Sustainable Development in China： A Provincial-level Analysis

A growing body of literature has documented the rapidly increasing income disparities that accompanied China＇s economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s, and the driving factors behind this. Growing income inequality in its turn may have important implications for the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, and natural capital and as a consequence for sustainable economic development. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential impact of income inequality on savings, human resources and the environment in China. It starts with an overview of the different causal mechanisms through which income inequality may affect the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, and natural capital, and discusses to what extent these causal relationships may be relevant in the case of China. Next, provincial data for the year 2002 are used to explore the relationship between income inequality and different elements of sustainable development in China. It is found that income inequality does not affect aggregate savings levels. Rising inequality, however, contributes to lower health and possibly also to higher fertility levels. It also lowers the use of chemical fertilizers in agriculture and therefore is likely to reduce water pollution. Other types of environmental degradation are not affected.     

Structuring complexity for tailoring research contributions to sustainable development: a framework

Research aiming at generating effective contributions to sustainable development faces particular complexity related challenges. This article proposes an analytical framework disentangling and structuring complexity issues with which research for sustainable development is confronted. Based on theoretical conceptions from fields like policy sciences and transdisciplinary research as well as on an in-depth analysis of the concept of sustainable development, three meta-perspectives on research for sustainable development are introduced and elaborated. The first perspective focuses on notions of sustainable development, sorting out the problem of unclear or ambiguous interpretations of the general sustainability objectives in specific contexts. The second perspective introduces a broad conception of the policy process representing the way societal change towards sustainable development is brought about. It supports identifying those academic and non-academic actors and stakeholders that are relevant for coming up with effective knowledge contributions. The third perspective identifies different forms of knowledge that are needed to tackle sustainability problems as well as the significance of their mutual interrelations. How the framework perspectives support reflecting on the fundamental complexity issues research for sustainable development is confronted with is illustrated using a case example from natural scientific research in the field of land use. We argue that meeting the complexity inherent in the concept of sustainable development requires joint learning in policy processes, working out shared visions being in line with the core objectives of sustainable development and generating knowledge about empirical, normative and pragmatic aspects.