The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Nest defenses and egg recognition of yellow-bellied prinia against cuckoo parasitism

Parasites may, in multi-parasite systems, block the defenses of their hosts and thus thwart host recognition of parasites by frequency-dependent selection. Nest defenses as frontline may block or promote the subsequent stage of defenses such as egg recognition. We conducted comparative studies of the defensive strategies of a host of the Oriental cuckoo Cuculus optatus, the yellow-bellied prinia Prinia flaviventris, in mainland China with multiple species of cuckoos and in Taiwan with a single cuckoo species. Cuckoo hosts did not exhibit aggression toward cuckoos in the presence of multiple cuckoo species but showed strong aggressive defenses of hosts directed toward cuckoos in Taiwan. Furthermore, the cuckoo host in populations with a single cuckoo species was able to distinguish adults of its brood parasite, the Oriental cuckoo, from adult common cuckoos (Cuculus canorus). This represents the first case in which a cuckoo host has been shown to specifically distinguish Oriental cuckoo, from other Cuculus species. Hosts ejected eggs at a higher rate in a single cuckoo species system than in a multi-species cuckoo system, which supports the strategy facilitation hypothesis. Granularity analysis of variation in egg phenotype based on avian vision modeling supported the egg signature hypothesis in hosts because Taiwanese prinias increased consistency in the appearance of their eggs within individual hosts thus favoring efficient discrimination against cuckoo eggs. This study significantly improves our knowledge of intraspecific variation in antiparasitism behavior of hosts between single- and multi-cuckoo systems.     

The combined benefits of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in preventing crashes and reducing crash severity

Objective: Several studies have reported the benefits of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing injury crashes, due to improved stability and braking performance. Both aspects may prevent crashes but may also reduce the crash severity when a collision occurs. However, it is still unknown to what extent the reductions in injury crashes with ABS may be due to a combination of these mechanisms.

Methods: Swedish hospital and police reports (2003–2012) were used. The risk for permanent medical impairment (RPMI) was calculated, showing the risk of at least 1 or 10% permanent medical impairment. In total, 165 crashes involving ABS-equipped motorcycles were compared with 500 crashes with similar motorcycles without ABS.

The analysis was performed in 3 steps. First, the reduction in emergency care visits with ABS was calculated using an induced exposure approach. Secondly, the injury mitigating effects of ABS were investigated. The mean RPMI 1+ and RPMI 10+ were analyzed for different crash types. The distributions of impairing injuries (PMI 1+) and severely impairing injuries (PMI 10+) were also analyzed. In the third step, the total reduction of PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ injured motorcyclists was calculated by combining the reductions found in the previous steps. An additional analysis of combined braking systems (CBS) together with ABS was also performed.

Results: The results showed that emergency care visits were reduced by 47% with ABS. In the second step, it was found that the mean RPMI 1+ and RPMI 10+ with ABS were 15 and 37% lower, respectively. Finally, the third step showed that the total reductions in terms of crash avoidance and mitigation of PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ injured motorcyclists with ABS were 67 and 55%, respectively. However, PMI 1+ and PMI 10+ leg injuries were not reduced by ABS to the same extent. Indications were found suggesting that the benefits of ABS together with CBS may be greater than ABS alone.

Conclusions: This article indicated that motorcycle ABS reduced impairing injuries, mostly due to fewer emergency care visits but also due to a reduction in crash severity. This may seem reasonable as the improved stability and braking performance provided by ABS could prevent some crashes but would also decrease crash severity if a collision still occurs. As suggested by previous studies, however, the lower extremities would be more exposed in a crash with ABS. It is recommended that future research should follow up these results with additional data.     

Modeling water exchange and contaminant transport through a Baltic coastal region

The water exchange of the Baltic coastal zone is characterized by its seasonally varying regimes. In the safety assessment of a potential repository for spent nuclear fuel, it is important to assess the consequences of a hypothetical leak of radionuclides through the seabed into a waterborne transport phase. In particular, estimates of the associated residence times in the near-shore coastal zone are of interest. There are several methods to quantify such measures, of which three are presented here. Using the coastal location of Forsmark (Sweden) as an example, methods based on passive tracers, particle trajectories, and the average age distribution of exogeneous water parcels are compared for a representative one-year cycle. Tracer-based methods can simulate diffusivity more realistically than the other methods. Trajectory-based methods can handle Lagrangian dispersion processes due to advection but neglect diffusion on the sub-grid scale. The method based on the concept of average age (AvA) of exogeneous water can include all such sources simultaneously not only boundary water bodies but also various (fresh)-water discharges. Due to the inclusion of sub-grid diffusion this method gives a smoother measure of the water renewal. It is shown that backward in time trajectories and AvA-times are basically equipollent methods, yielding correlated results within the limits set by the diffusivity.     

Toxicity of water and sediment in a small urban river (Store Vejleå, Denmark)

The urban stream Store Vejle? (Denmark), which receives discharges of urban runoff, was investigated using a combination of biological toxicity tests and chemical analysis. The urban stormwater and road runoff gave low, but statistically significant, effects on the reproduction of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata. In all pre-concentrated water samples toxic effects were found and differences in toxicity depending on time and location of sampling were identified. Undiluted pore water samples from sediments collected in the stream were all toxic towards the algae and dilutions from 4 to 14 times were needed compared to a pore water sample from an unpolluted stream where a dilution factor of only 1.6 was required. A qualitative correlation between the toxicity of the pore water and the degree of pollution as evidenced by the metal concentration was observed, but statistically significant correlations could not be established by ranking procedures of, e.g. metal content or PAH-concentrations versus the observed toxicity.     

Emissions from an automobile fire

The emissions from automobile fires have been investigated. The main gas phase components were analysed in small-scale tests with representative material from an automobile. A more detailed investigation of full-scale simulated automobile fires was also conducted, including the characterisation of gas phase components, particulates and run-off water from extinguishing activities. Three separate full scale fire tests have been characterised: a fire ignited and developed in the engine compartment; a fire ignited inside the coupé, that was extinguished in the early stages; and a similar fire ignited inside the coupé that was allowed to spread until the entire vehicle was involved in the fire. The quantitative analysis of the smoke gases from the full-scale fires showed that emissions with a potentially negative impact on the environment, or chronic toxic effect on humans, were produced in significant quantities. These emissions included HCl, SO2, VOCs (e.g. benzene), PAHs, and PCDDs/PCDFs. Analysis of run-off water indicated that it was severely contaminated, containing elevated levels of both organic compounds and metals. Comparison with data from other vehicle fires found in the literature shows that contamination by lead, copper, zinc, and antimony appears to be significant in water run-off from these types of fires.     

Predicting low biota to sediment accumulation factors of PAHs by using infinite-sink and equilibrium extraction methods as well as BC-inclusive modeling

Sequestration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) results in the slow release of PAHs from sediment to the aqueous environment, thus limiting bioavailability. Three methods to account for the limited bioavailability of native PAHs to the gastropod Hinia reticulata were therefore investigated: (i) infinite-sink extractions that measure desorption; (ii) equilibrium extractions that measure freely dissolved pore water concentrations and (iii) black carbon-inclusive modeling. The rapidly desorbing fraction was estimated based on the amount desorbed by Tenax. Relatively small amounts of PAHs (<9%) were present in F(rapid) and the observed solid-water distribution ratios (K(d,obs)) were approximately 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than literature K(oc) values. Biota to sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) measured in the gastropod H. reticulata ranged from 0.02 to 0.07, 10-140 times lower than the theoretical value of approximately 1-2. The BSAFs calculated using the rapidly desorbing fraction or freely dissolved aqueous concentrations were also much lower than the theoretical value, and median values differed from the measured BSAFs by only a factor of 1.5-9. Furthermore, the result of using a BC-inclusive BSAF model could explain the deviation from the theoretical BSAF value and account for the low bioavailability of these native PAHs to H. reticulata. Risk assessment strategies of in situ contamination should therefore include a combination of chemical methods accounting for bioavailability, as well as bioaccumulation studies.     

The variation of street air levels of PAH and other mutagenic PAC in relation to regulations of traffic emissions and the impact of atmospheric processes

The occurrence of particle associated PAH and other mutagenic PAC was determined in 1996 in the street air of Copenhagen. In addition, particle extracts were tested for mutagenicity. The measurements were compared with previous measurements in 1992/1993. The levels had decreased in this period. The decrease was caused by an implementation of light diesel fuels for buses and the exchange of older petrol-driven passenger cars with catalystequipped new ones. About 65% of the reduction was caused by the application of the light diesel fuels. Under special conditions, chemical processes in the atmosphere produced many more mutagens than the direct emissions. The concentrations of S-PAC and N-PAC were 10 times lower than those of PAH, while the levels of oxy-PAH were in the same order of magnitude as those of PAH. Benzanthrone, an oxy-PAH, is proposed to be formed in the atmosphere in addition to direct emissions. Benzo(a)pyrene, often applied as an air quality criteria indicator, was photochemically degraded in the atmosphere. A strong increase in the mutagenic activities was observed to coincide with a depletion of benzo(a)pyrene.     

Sexual selection, feather breakage and parasites: the importance of white spots in the tail of the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica)

The long outermost tail feathers of barn swallows Hirundo rustica have white spots that are larger in males than in females and in adults than in juveniles. Spot size increases with age among adults and is positively correlated with tail length. We tested the functional significance of these white spots by randomly assigning males to either of three groups during spring: (1) subjected to a considerable reduction in the size of all spots using a black permanent pen; (2) subjected to a small reduction in the size of all spots; or (3) a control group with no reduction. Experimental treatment significantly affected the total number of offspring produced per season: breeding tended to be delayed and second broods were less frequent after a considerable reduction in the size of the males' tail feather spots. White parts of feathers lacking melanin were more often found to be the site of feather breakage than the melanised parts of similar width. Furthermore, white tail spots were the preferred feeding site of feather-eating Mallophaga and, since long-tailed males have fewer Mallophaga than short-tailed males, long-tailed males may pay a lower cost for their large white tail spots than short-tailed males. Hence, the cost of increased risk of feather breakage at white tail spots and the non-random distribution of feather lice among individuals will render tail spots a reliable signal of phenotypic quality. Received: 25 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 4 January 1998     

Noninvasive prenatal screening for cystic fibrosis using circulating trophoblasts: Detection of the 50 most common disease-causing variants

Objectives

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is one of the most common severe autosomal recessive disorders. Prenatal or preconception CF screening is offered in some countries. A maternal blood sample in early pregnancy can provide circulating trophoblasts and offers a DNA source for genetic analysis of both the mother and the fetus. This study aimed to develop a cell-based noninvasive prenatal test (NIPT) to screen for the 50 most common CF variants.

Methods

Blood samples were collected from 30 pregnancies undergoing invasive diagnostics and circulating trophoblasts were harvested in 27. Cystic fibrosis testing was conducted using two different methods: by fragment length analysis and by our newly developed NGS-based CF analysis.

Results

In all 27 cases, cell-based NIPT provided a result using both methods in agreement with the invasive test result.

Conclusion

This study shows that cell-based NIPT for CF screening provides a reliable result without the need for partner- and proband samples.