An Application of a Modified Ecological Footprint Method and Structural Path Analysis in a Comparative Institutional Study

This paper presents an application of a modified ecological footprint method, using a regional, disturbance-based approach. In contrast to conventional institutional ecological footprint calculations, energy and land use resulting from all upstream production processes are explored by employing an input-output framework. Ecological footprints are calculated for two research institutions: the School of Physics (SoP) at the University of Sydney, and the Sustainable Ecosystems (CSE) Department of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. These are broken down further in terms of land disturbance and greenhouse gas emissions, and as a function of production layer. To enable the use of the results in policy formulation, the ecological footprints are decomposed into detailed contributing paths, which are ranked according to their importance, using structural path analysis. The paper demonstrates that a considerable proportion of impacts occur upstream in industrial production. Thus a significant result of the study is the weight of obscure paths in the total footprints and, therefore, the importance of conducting an holistic assessment in order to ensure all upstream contributions are captured in the final impact of the institution.     

Uranium in stream and mineral water of the Federal Republic of Germany

The concentration of uranium was determined in 944 samples from stream water by the inductively coupled plasma quadrupole mass spectrometry (ICP-QMS) method and represented on a color-shaded contour map. Uranium concentrations in surface water were determined to be between 0.007 μg/l and 43.7 μg/l with median of 0.33 μg/l. The regional distribution of uranium is influenced primarily by lithological and anthropogenic factors. In Mecklenburg, northern Brandenburg, and eastern Schleswig-Holstein, elevated uranium concentrations coincide with the extent of the last Weichselian ice sheet. The maximum concentrations are observed in the surface waters of the old mining districts in the western part of the Ore Mountains and in eastern Thuringia. Elevated concentrations are found in areas of agriculturally used loess soils. These concentrations correlate with the use of phosphate fertilizers. There is a zone of elevated concentrations up to 10.0 μg U/l in the Keuper Sandstone area south of the Thuringian Forest and from northwest of Stuttgart as far as Coburg. The distribution of elevated values in mineral water shows a clear correlation with the elevated values in surface water and the geology of those locations. Bunter and Keuper strata are the most important uranium source.     

Chorus model of the synchronizing bushcricket species Mecopoda elongata

Males of the Malaysian bushcricket species Mecopoda elongata synchronize or alternate their cyclically occurring song elements (chirps) in a duet. The acoustic interaction of males interacting in a duet was successfully simulated by means of mutually coupled song oscillators, which respond to a disturbance by a phase shift which is known from the phase response curves (PRCs) of real males. However, little is known about the acoustic interaction of males in a complex chorus situation. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to extend the duet model to a chorus taking into account an inhomogeneous spacing of agents and a natural variability of oscillator properties. This chorus model was used to study oscillator coupling in a chorus consisting of 15 agents. Since such a computer model allows one to simulate chorus manipulations that far exceed the possibilities of behaviour experiments, the following scenarios were simulated: modification of chorus density, sensory bias during sound production, selective attention to only a subset of neighbors and males joining or leaving a chorus. Simulation results allow one to draw conclusions about the chorusing behavior of males in a real chorus and about signaler and receiver aspects influencing chorusing formation and mate choice.     

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.     

Mid-21st century climate and weather extremes in Cyprus as projected by six regional climate models

We present climate change projections and apply indices of weather extremes for the Mediterranean island Cyprus using data from regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by the IPCC A1B scenario within the ENSEMBLES project. Daily time-series of temperature and precipitation were used from six RCMs for a reference period 1976–2000 and for 2026–2050 (‘future‘) for representative locations, applying a performance selection among neighboring model grid-boxes. The annual average temperatures of the model ensemble have a ±1.5°C bias from the observations (negative for maximum and positive for minimum temperature), and the models underestimate annual precipitation totals by 4–17%. The climatological annual cycles for the observations fall within the 1σ range of the 6-model average, highlighting the strength of using multi-model output. We obtain reasonable agreement between models and observations for the temperature-related indices of extremes for the recent past, while the comparison is less good for the precipitation-related extremes. For the future, the RCM ensemble shows significant warming of 1°C in winter to 2°C in the summer for both maximum and minimum temperatures. Rainfall is projected to decrease by 2–8%, although this is not statistically significant. Our results indicate the shift of the mean climate to a warmer state, with a relatively strong increase in the warm extremes. The precipitation frequency is projected to decrease at the inland Nicosia and at the coastal Limassol, while the mountainous Saittas could experience more frequent 5–15 mm/day rainfall. In future, very hot days are expected to increase by more than 2 weeks/year and tropical nights by 1 month/year. The annual number of consecutive dry days shows a statistically significant increase (of 9 days) in Limassol. These projected changes of the Cyprus climate may adversely affect ecosystems and the economy of the island and emphasize the need for adaptation strategies.     

EU-wide survey of polar organic persistent pollutants in European river waters

This study provides the first EU-wide reconnaissance of the occurrence of polar organic persistent pollutants in European river waters. More than 100 individual water samples from over 100 European rivers from 27 European Countries were analysed for 35 selected compounds, comprising pharmaceuticals, pesticides, PFOS, PFOA, benzotriazoles, hormones, and endocrine disrupters. Around 40 laboratories participated in this sampling exercise. The most frequently and at the highest concentration levels detected compounds were benzotriazole, caffeine, carbamazepine, tolyltriazole, and nonylphenoxy acetic acid (NPE₁C). Only about 10% of the river water samples analysed could be classified as “very clean” in terms of chemical pollution. The rivers responsible for the major aqueous emissions of PFOS and PFOA from the European Continent could be identified. For the target compounds chosen, we are proposing “indicative warning levels” in surface waters, which are (for most compounds) close to the 90th percentile of all water samples analysed.     

Impact of climate change on vulnerability of forests and ecosystem service supply in Western Rhodopes Mountains

The vulnerability of forest ecosystem services to climate change is expected to depend on landscape characteristic and management history, but may also be influenced by the proximity to the southern range limit of constituent tree species. In the Western Rhodopes in South Bulgaria, Norway spruce is an important commercial species, but is approaching its current southern limit. Using climate sensitive forest models, we projected the impact of climate change on timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity and soil retention in two representative landscapes in the Western Rhodopes; a lower elevation landscape (1000–1450 m a.s.l) dominated by mixed species forests, and a higher elevation landscape (1550–2100 m a.s.l.) currently dominated by spruce. In both landscapes climate change is projected to induce a shift in forest composition, with drought-sensitive species, such as Norway spruce, being replaced by more drought-tolerant species such as Scots pine and black pine at lower elevations. In the higher elevation landscape a reduction in spruce growth is projected, particularly under the more severe climate change scenarios. Under most climate scenarios a reduction in growing stock is projected to occur, but under some scenarios a moderate increase in higher elevation stands (>1500 m a.s.l.) is expected. Climate change is projected to negatively influence carbon storage potential across landscapes with the magnitude depending on the severity of the climate change scenario. The impact of climate change on forest diversity and habitat availability is projected to differ considerably between the two landscapes, with diversity and habitat quality generally increasing at higher elevations, and being reduced at lower elevations. Our results suggest that if currently management practices are maintained the sensitivity of forests and forest ecosystem services in the Western Rhodopes to climate change will differ between low and higher elevation sites and will depend strongly on current forest composition.     

Analysis of perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) and other perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in the River Po watershed in N-Italy

C7-C11 perfluorinated carboxylates (PFACs) and perfluorooctansulfonate (PFOS) were analysed in selected stretches of the River Po and its major tributaries. Analyses were performed by solid-phase extraction (SPE) with Oasis HLB cartridges and methanol elution followed by LC-MS-MS detection using 13C-labelled internal standards. High concentration levels ( approximately 1.3 microg l(-1)) of perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) were detected in the Tánaro River close to the city Alessandria. After this tributary, levels between 60 and 337 ng l(-1) were measured in the Po River on several occasions. The PFOA concentration close to the river mouth in Ferrara was between 60 and 174 ng l(-1). Using the river discharge flow data in m3 s(-1) at this point (average approximately 920 m3 s(-1) for the year 2006), a mass load of approximately 0.3 kg PFOA per hour or approximately 2.6 tons per year discharged in the Adriatic Sea has been calculated. PFOS concentration levels in the Po River at Ferrara were approximately 10 ng l(-1).     

Biomonitoring zur wirkungsbezogenen Ermittlung der Schadstoffbelastung in terrestrischen Ökosystemen

Biomonitoring programmes provide relevant information, which may supplement ambient air pollution monitoring or modelling around emission sources. As a prerequisite, assessment scales for biomonitoring data have to be derived based on an objective evaluation of available data, as well as on a scheme of presentation, which is suggestive and easily understandable even for laymen. Based on an evaluation of numerous monitoring programmes, assessment scales for biomonitoring results are derived for plant biomonitoring, which also serve as a basis for the graphical presentation of monitoring results. This study is focussed on bioindicator plants like mosses (passive biomonitoring) and exposed lichens (active biomonitoring), in which 14 metal elements are investigated. As an example, data from a local biomonitoring network around a cement plant were used to demonstrate the use of the assessment scales derived and the presentation scheme developed. Data sets from about 15 moss and 24 lichen biomonitoring programmes, comprising more than 1000 specimens, were sorted by their pollutant characteristics in order to form the database. Data on the metal contents of species demonstrating similar values with respect to growth characteristics and habit, and representing background or low pollution levels, are aggregated and their statistical distributions are evaluated. Spacing of the assessment scales and their colour designations are derived from the 50-, 75-, 90- and 95-percentile values. Graphical presentation allows a comparison of the absolute values of metal contents and a relative association of measured values. Exemplary results from moss and lichen monitoring around a cement plant are generally below or slightly above the median values at background and low-pollution sites. Metal contents are higher in lichens compared to mosses for 7 elements (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Sb, Sn, Zn), and are lower in lichens only for thallium. The assessment scheme presented is mainly aimed at the practitioner in the field of biomonitoring in order to provide a reliable and sound scale of assessment by comparison on an absolute scale rather than presenting the basis of ecological risk assessment. Differences in metal content of co-located samples of various moss species and possible correction procedures are briefly discussed- as well as the consequences of pooling monitoring data across various moss species for the quality of assessment scales. Further evaluations shall focus on species-specific rather than on pooled databases and will investigate the consequences of the use of correction factors when extrapolating metal data from one monitoring species to another.     

The BIOTA Biodiversity Observatories in Africa—a standardized framework for large-scale environmental monitoring

The international, interdisciplinary biodiversity research project BIOTA AFRICA initiated a standardized biodiversity monitoring network along climatic gradients across the African continent. Due to an identified lack of adequate monitoring designs, BIOTA AFRICA developed and implemented the standardized BIOTA Biodiversity Observatories, that meet the following criteria (a) enable long-term monitoring of biodiversity, potential driving factors, and relevant indicators with adequate spatial and temporal resolution, (b) facilitate comparability of data generated within different ecosystems, (c) allow integration of many disciplines, (d) allow spatial up-scaling, and (e) be applicable within a network approach. A BIOTA Observatory encompasses an area of 1?km² and is subdivided into 100 1-ha plots. For meeting the needs of sampling of different organism groups, the hectare plot is again subdivided into standardized subplots, whose sizes follow a geometric series. To allow for different sampling intensities but at the same time to characterize the whole square kilometer, the number of hectare plots to be sampled depends on the requirements of the respective discipline. A hierarchical ranking of the hectare plots ensures that all disciplines monitor as many hectare plots jointly as possible. The BIOTA Observatory design assures repeated, multidisciplinary standardized inventories of biodiversity and its environmental drivers, including options for spatial up- and downscaling and different sampling intensities. BIOTA Observatories have been installed along climatic and landscape gradients in Morocco, West Africa, and southern Africa. In regions with varying land use, several BIOTA Observatories are situated close to each other to analyze management effects.