A Modeling System to Assess Land Cover Land Use Change Effects on SAV Habitat in the Mobile Bay Estuary

Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services.     

Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.     

The effects of temperature on decomposition and allelopathic phytotoxicity of boneseed litter

Decomposition of plant litter is a fundamental process in ecosystem function, carbon and nutrient cycling and, by extension, climate change. This study aimed to investigate the role of temperature on the decomposition of water soluble phenolics(WSP), carbon and soil nutrients in conjunction with the phytotoxicity dynamics of Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. monilifera(boneseed) litter. Treatments consisted of three factors including decomposition materials(litter alone, litter with soil and soil alone), decomposition periods and temperatures(5–15, 15–25and 25–35°C(night/day)). Leachates were collected on 0, 5, 10, 20, 40 and 60 th days to analyse physico-chemical parameters and phytotoxicity. Water soluble phenolics and dissolved organic carbon(DOC) increased with increasing temperature while nutrients like SO-24 and NO-13 decreased. Speed of germination, hypocotyl and radical length and weight of Lactuca sativa exposed to leachates were decreased with increasing decomposition temperature. All treatment components had significant effects on these parameters. There had a strong correlation between DOC and WSP, and WSP content of the leachates with radical length of test species. This study identified complex interactivity among temperature, WSP, DOC and soil nutrient dynamics of litter occupied soil and that these factors work together to influence phytotoxicity.     

Dissolved phosphorus export from an animal waste impacted in-stream wetland: response to tropical storm and hurricane disturbance

The ability of wetlands to retain P makes them an important landscape feature that buffers P movement. However, their P retention ability can be compromised through hydrologic disturbances caused by hurricanes and tropical storms (TS). This study had three objectives: (i) to determine the effects of hurricanes and TS on dissolved phosphorus (DP) concentrations and loads discharged from a Coastal Plain in-stream wetland (ISW); (ii) to evaluate shifts in P storage pools that would reflect P accretion/removal patterns; and (iii) to determine if relationships exist between storm characteristics with releases of DP and water volume. From January 1996 to October 1999, the ISW's outflow DP concentrations and flow volumes (Q) were measured and they were used to calculate DP mass export loads. In addition, the sediment total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were measured, and both the water column and sediment pore water DP concentrations were examined using passive samplers. In several instances, TS facilitated greater DP releases than a single hurricane event. The largest release of DP occurred in 1999 after Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene. The large differences in DP exports among the storms were explained by Q variations. Storm activity also caused changes in sediment pore water DP and sediment TP concentrations. This study revealed that some TS events caused higher DP releases than a single hurricane; however, multiple hurricanes delivering heavy precipitation totals significantly increased DP export.     

Fire effects on stable isotopes in a Sierran forested watershed

This study tested the hypothesis that stable C and N isotope values in surface soil and litter would be increased by fire due to volatilization of lighter isotopes. The hypothesis was tested by: (1) performing experimental laboratory burns of organic and mineral soil materials from a watershed at combinations of temperature ranging 100 to 600 degrees C and duration ranging from 1 to 60 min; (2) testing field samples of upland soils before, shortly after, and 1 yr following a wildfire in the same watershed; and (3) testing field soil samples from a down-gradient ash/sediment depositional area in a riparian zone following a runoff event after the wildfire. Muffle furnace results indicated the most effective temperature range for using stable isotopes for tracing fire impacts is 200 to 400 degrees C because lower burn temperatures may not produce strong isotopic shifts, and at temperatures>or=600 degrees C, N and C content of residual material is too low. Analyses of field soil samples were inconclusive: there was a slightly significant effect of the wildfire on delta15N values in upland watershed analyses 1 yr postburn, while riparian zone analyses results indicated that delta13C values significantly decreased approximately 0.71 per thousand over a 9 mo post-fire period (p=0.015), and ash/sediment layer delta13C values were approximately 0.65 per thousand higher than those in the A horizon. The lack of field confirmation may have been due to overall wildfire burn temperatures being <200 degrees C and/or microbial recovery and vegetative growth in the field. Thus, the muffle furnace experiment supported the hypothesis, but it is as yet unconfirmed by actual wildfire field data.     

The Islands Are Different: Human Perceptions of Game Species in Hawaii

Hawaii’s game animals are all non-native species, which provokes human–wildlife conflict among stakeholders. The management of human–wildlife conflict in Hawaii is further complicated by the discrete nature of island communities. Our goal was to understand the desires and perceived values or impacts of game held by residents of Hawaii regarding six game species [pigs (Sus scrofa), goats (Capra hircus), mouflon (Ovis musimon), axis deer (Axis axis), turkeys (Melagris gallopavo), and doves (Geopelia striata)]. We measured the desired abundance of game on the six main Hawaiian Islands using the potential for conflict index and identified explanatory variables for those desires via recursive partitioning. In 2011 we surveyed 5,407 residents (2,360 random residents and 3,047 pre-identified stakeholders). Overall 54.5 and 27.6 % of the emailed and mailed surveys were returned (n = 1,510). A non-respondent survey revealed that respondents and non-respondents had similar interest in wildlife, and a similar education level. The desired abundance of game differed significantly among stakeholders, species, and islands. The desired abundance scores were higher for axis deer, mouflon, and turkeys compared to pigs, goats or doves. Enjoyment at seeing game and the cultural value of game were widespread explanatory variables for desired abundance. Models for Lanai emphasized the economic value of game, whereas models for Maui identified the potential for game to contaminate soil and water. Models for Oahu and Kauai revealed concern for human health and safety. Given our findings we recommend managers design separate management plans for each island taking into consideration the values of residents.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.