某实验室2017年全国个人剂量监测能力考核结果分析

目的:对2017年参加全国个人剂量监测能力考核的结果进行分析与总结,改进监测分析方法,提高监测技术能力。方法:依据《2017年度全国个人剂量监测能力考核方案》的要求进行考核。结果:检测结果报告值分别为0.56,2.50,0.50,1.94,3.73,与参考值相比较,单组性能为0.01~0.02,综合性能为0.02,考核评定结果为优秀。结论:本实验室个人剂量监测系统状态稳定,测量结果准确可靠。     

青藏高原北部土壤正构烷烃氢同位素及物源意义

采用正构烷烃及其单体氢同位素组成特征相结合的方法研究了青藏高原北部多年冻土区表层土壤正构烷烃（C₂₁~C₃₃）的生物来源.研究表明：表层土壤中正构烷烃呈双峰型和三峰型的分布特征,表明其具有多个生物来源.长链长正构烷烃（C₂₅~C₃₃）主要来源于陆源高等植物.表层土壤中长链长正构烷烃（C₂₅~C₃₃）中奇碳数正构烷烃的δD值比偶碳数的整体偏轻,原因可能是两者的生物合成途径不同.对中等链长正构烷烃聚类分析后分为两种类型,类型I的中等链长正构烷烃（C₂₁~C₂₄）主要来源于陆源高等植物,类型Ⅱ的中等链长正构烷烃主要来源于细菌等微生物降解的产物.表层土壤样品（FHS-10、TG2-10和TG3-10）中等链长的正构烷烃δD值最轻,应为δD值偏轻的水源和细菌等微生物降解共同作用的结果.     

A multispecies test of source–sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations

For species at risk of decline or extinction in source–sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site‐ or habitat‐specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source–sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high‐output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source–sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data‐rich source–sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short‐term regional persistence. Because source–sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.     

煤矿组织安全行为对个体不安全行为的作用机理研究

为了探究煤矿组织安全行为对个体不安全行为的作用机理,总结国内外相关研究成果,提出个体不安全行为包含心理、生理、技能3个影响因素,涵盖记忆、思维、情绪、意志、性格、气质、能力、态度、知识、专业操作技能10个方面。在此基础上,构建了组织安全行为对个体不安全行为的结构方程模型（SEM）,运用统计分析方法（AMOS17.0）进行了验证分析。结果显示态度、情绪、意志、能力、专业操作技能容易受组织安全行为的影响,而性格、气质等因素由于是个体相对稳定的心理特征,受组织安全行为影响相对较小。深入研究煤矿组织安全行为对个体不安全行为的作用机理,有利于煤矿从组织安全行为入手有针对性的制定行为干预方案并控制个体不安全行为。     

疏散规模对亚区域人群疏散过程影响的模拟研究

为了研究不同疏散规模对疏散动态特征的影响,基于矢量模型构建城市亚区域人员疏散模型,采用个体行为模拟技术和矢量二维连续空 间解析方法对城市亚区域疏散中的个体行为进行模拟。通过设置不同的疏散规模,在Legion平台模拟分析疏散人口数对疏散运动时间、疏散速 率、空间使用率人员密度等疏散动态特征的影响。结果表明,随着疏散人数的增加,总疏散运动时间变长,但其变化率远低于疏散人数变化率 ;最大疏散速率增大,但出现最大疏散速率的时间随之延后;空间使用率增加,沿小区次干路、主干路到小区出口变化明显;拥堵情况增加, 小区主干路、次干路与主干路交叉口及小区出口处拥堵较为严重。     

Lasso-Cox模型在个人信用风险评估中的应用

借鉴Lasso模型和Cox模型的优点创建Lasso-Cox模型,用以评估个人借款者的信用风险,并利用个人借款者的数据进行实证分析,比较不同模型的预测精度。结果表明:(1)单一Cox模型的预测准确度高于Logistic回归模型,而Lasso-Cox模型的预测精度达95.76%,远高于单一Cox模型。(2)考虑宏观环境对个人经济的影响,发现将宏观变量纳入模型后预测精度有明显的提升,其中Lasso-Cox模型预测精度高达98.88%。     

OPTICAL IMPACTS AND SOURCES OF SUSPENDED SOLIDS IN ONONDAGA CREEK,U.S.A.1

ABSTRACT: The degradation of the optical aesthetics in the mouth of Onondaga Creek, New York, that occurs during high flow periods as a result of the influx of large quantities of suspended solids, is documented. Features of the degradation include very low clarity (Secchi disc minimum of approximately 0.1 m) and a brown ‘muddy’ appearance. The reduced clarity is mostly a result of increased light scattering. Loading and concentration profiles obtained for an approximately 35 km interval above the creek mouth over a wide range of flow indicates most of the suspended solids received during runoff events is resuspended stream sediment and eroded bank material. Application of microscopy-based individual particle analysis techniques indicates that the origin of most of these deposits and much of the suspended solids during runoff events is point source inputs, termed ‘mud boils,’ located approximately 32 km upstream of the creek mouth.     

EDUCATING THE RURAL PUBLIC ABOUT SAFE DRINKING WATER1

ABSTRACT: From 1984 to 1987, the Penn State Cooperative Extension Service conducted 40 safe drinking water clinics for more than 3000 rural homeowners. The clinics were developed to provide homeowners and farmers with information on managing their private water supplies. Four of the clinics were evaluated using a mail survey. By using a four part mailing, response rates of 63 to 77 percent were achieved. Based on the evaluation results of the four clinics, 11 of the 14 objectives dealing with information value, knowledge gained, and actions taken were met.     

公共场所泄漏、中毒事故的个人风险水平的估计

笔者研究目的在于对人群聚集公共场所某种类型事故所导致的个人风险进行定量。首先,在前期研究的基础上,推出人群聚集公共场所个人风险定量计算模型。其次,根据火灾的发生率、死亡率及两类事故之间的发生次数比率,估计出国内毒物泄漏、中毒事故发生率和死亡率。最后,根据个人风险的定义求得公共场所毒物泄漏、中毒事故的个人风险的初始值,并进行了进一步的结论修正。对比国外的个人风险标准,结果表明,从整体上看2001—2005年公共场所毒物泄漏、中毒事故的个人风险是可以接受的。该研究结论可以为制定我国个人风险标准提供理论参考依据。     

火灾中人的心理状态及行为特点的研究

本文从心理学的观点出发,根据人的“心理——行为”模式,通过火灾事故中环境对人的影响,对火灾中个体和群集的心理行为进行交互分析,总结了个体和群集在火灾中的异常心理行为特点,有助于加强对消防安全培训的认识;同时也为建筑物性能化设计、建立疏散模型提供重要的理论基础。