1980—2015年京津冀地区雁鸭类潜在栖息地连接度变化及驱动因素

近几十年来,京津冀地区湿地面积萎缩,生态功能下降,严重影响了湿地水鸟的栖息地质量及栖息地间的连接,对水鸟类的迁徙、繁殖产生较大干扰,为了从整体上定量分析近几十年来湿地栖息地质量及连接度的变化,采用MaxEnt模型（maximum entropy model,最大熵模型）,基于京津冀地区雁鸭类的出现点和环境因子反演其潜在栖息地,并根据图论法原理,利用ECA指数（equivalent connected area,等效连接指数）,度量1980-2015年潜在栖息地连接度的变化.结果表明:①1980-2015年京津冀雁鸭类潜在栖息地面积总体呈下降趋势,由1980年的6 898 km2减至2015年的3 764 km2,减少了45.0%,其中,低适宜区面积降幅最为明显,为50.5%;2009-2015年高适宜区有增加趋势.②1980-2015年雁鸭类潜在栖息地连接度呈持续下降趋势,2000年以后的连接度下降速率大于2000年以前;潜在栖息地连接结构的空间分布有向环渤海地区转移的趋势,连接结构变化最为明显的区域为京津冀中部平原地区.研究显示,区域气候趋暖变干、水资源的供需失衡、水利工程设施建设以及人口增加与经济发展带来的土地利用变化是潜在栖息地面积与连接度下降的主要影响因子,而近些年保护区的建立及生态补水措施等生态保护政策对高适宜区的退化有一定缓解作用.      

不同工况下轻型车油耗试验驾驶方式评价

在一台性能稳定的汽油车上由同一驾驶人员按平顺、粗暴和正常3种驾驶方式分别进行NEDC （新欧洲行驶工况）、FTP75（美国认证工况）以及WLTC （世界统一轻型车测试循环）工况油耗试验,采用能量变化率（ER）、距离变化率（DR）、能量经济性变化率（EER）、绝对速度改变率（ASCR）、速度平方根误差（RMSSE）以及惯性做功改变率（IWR）6个指标作为驾驶质量评价指标,通过分析计算每次试验各项评价指标及其与燃料消耗量变化的相关性,确定了油耗试验驾驶方式的合理性边界条件.结果表明,对于WLTC和FTP75工况,平顺驾驶和粗暴驾驶均会导致评价指标变大或者变小,驾驶方式与评价指标呈规律性变化;对于NEDC工况,不同的驾驶方式对NEDC工况油耗影响较小.油耗试验的边界条件,WLTC工况的EER为（0.25±0.47）%、ASCR为（1.20±0.97）%、RMSSE为（0.85+0.15）km/h、IWR为（2.15±1.27）%时,可认为油耗试验的驾驶方式较为合理;FTP75工况的EER为（-0.09±0.69）%、ASCR为（-0.59±0.42）%、RMSSE为（0.88+0.34）km/h以及IWR为（-0.69±1.66）%时,油耗试验的驾驶方式较为合理.     

基于可解释性机器学习的城市O3驱动因素挖掘

受前体物排放和气象条件等因素共同驱动,大气臭氧(O₃)已成为影响城市夏季环境空气质量的主要污染物.目前物理化学机制驱动的演绎模型在进行O₃污染解析时需要的模型参数众多,运算时效性较差;数据驱动的归纳模型运算效率高,但存在可解释性差等问题.通过建立可解释性数据驱动的Correlation-ML-SHAP模型,Correlation模块挖掘O₃浓度关联影响因素,机器学习ML模块耦合可解释性SHAP模块计算各驱动因素对O₃浓度的影响贡献,实现对驱动因素的定量解析,并以晋城市2021年夏季O₃污染过程为例开展应用研究.结果表明,Correlation-ML-SHAP模型能够挖掘并利用强驱动因素模拟O₃浓度和量化影响贡献,其中ML模块采用XGBoost模型模拟准确度最佳. 2021年夏季晋城市O₃污染强驱动因素为：气温、日照强度、湿度和前体物排放水平,贡献权重为：32.1%、 21.3%、 16.5%和15.6%,其中气温、日照强度和前体物排放...     

中国碳排放及影响因素的市域尺度分析

评估区域碳排放及其与社会经济状况的关系对于制定碳减排措施至关重要.以中国339个地级及以上城市(不含新疆部分城市和港澳台地区)为研究对象,探究了非化石能源占比、土地开发度、常住人口城镇化率、第二产业占比、人均GDP和人均建设用地面积对人均CO₂排放量的影响.通过构建模拟人均CO₂排放量的贝叶斯信念网络,识别各因素对人均CO₂排放量的全局影响;采用多尺度地理加权回归模型,分析各因素对人均CO₂排放量的局部影响.结果表明：(1)2020年,中国地级及以上城市人均CO₂排放量呈现出由南向北递增,东部沿海向内陆递减的格局.(2)从全局来看,人均CO₂排放量对各因素的敏感性从高到低依次为：人均建设用地面积>人均GDP>常住人口城镇化率>土地开发度>第二产业占比>非化石能源占比.(3)从局部来看,各因素与人均CO₂排放量的空间关系方向与全局关系一致,关系强度上存在空间异质性.(4)清洁能源、脱碳技术、土地节约集约利用...     

Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks

PROBLEM: There is limited information about how parents view teen driving risks and intend to handle these risks during the licensing process, and how they will respond to graduated licensing provisions. METHODS: Parents in Connecticut were interviewed when their teens got their learner's permit. The survey was undertaken when the state did not have a midnight restriction or a passenger restriction. RESULTS: Generally, parents were well aware of teen driving risks, thought parents should be thoroughly involved in the licensing process, and plan to be active participants themselves. DISCUSSION: Parents were concerned about the risk of driving after midnight and already restrict that behavior. However, parents do not seem to see or understand the risks of having even one teen passenger in the vehicle. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The views and existing practices of parents need to be taken into account in deciding on the provisions of graduated licensing legislation and how to best ensure acceptance and compliance.     

Driving anger among motor vehicle drivers in China: A cross-sectional survey

Objective: Driving anger is a common emotion while driving and has been associated with traffic crashes. This study aimed to investigate situations that increase driving anger among Chinese drivers.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 3,101 drivers in southern China. The translated version of the 33-item Driving Anger Scale (DAS) was used to measure driving anger. Data were collected by face-to-face interviews between June 2016 and September 2016.

Results: Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the fit of the original 6-factor model (discourtesy, traffic obstacles, hostile gestures, slow driving, illegal driving, and police presence) was satisfactory, after removing 2 items and allowing 5 error pairs to covary. The model showed satisfactory fit: goodness of fit index (GFI) = 0.90, incremental fit index (IFI) = 0.90, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.06, 90% confidence interval (CI) = 0.061–0.064. Driving anger among Chinese drivers was lower than that in some Western countries. Compared to older and experienced drivers, younger and new drivers were more likely to report driving anger. There was no difference in total reported driving anger between males and females. Additionally, the higher the driver’s anger level was, the more likely he or she was to have had a traffic crash.

Conclusion: Driving anger is a common emotion among Chinese drivers and has a strong correlation with aggressive driving behavior and traffic crashes.     

载重车辆超载检测与阻止装置研究

针对载重车辆严重的超载问题,对车辆超载的起因、危害、检测方法等进行了深入的分析,提出了一种基于光电式位移传感器的车辆超载检测与阻止装置,并对其进行了结构设计与原理分析。利用车辆载荷与车身高度之间的对应关系,在车辆静止的状态下,通过检测车架与车桥的距离,判断车辆的载荷情况。根据超载情况提供不同的超载报警提醒,甚至切断起动机电源线、喷油器供电线及点火信号线,使发动机无法起动或正常工作,从而从源头上阻止车辆超载现象的发生。     

Structural equation model analysis for the evaluation of overall driving performance: A driving simulator study focusing on driver distraction

Objective: The present research relies on 2 main objectives. The first is to investigate whether latent model analysis through a structural equation model can be implemented on driving simulator data in order to define an unobserved driving performance variable. Subsequently, the second objective is to investigate and quantify the effect of several risk factors including distraction sources, driver characteristics, and road and traffic environment on the overall driving performance and not in independent driving performance measures.

Methods: For the scope of the present research, 95 participants from all age groups were asked to drive under different types of distraction (conversation with passenger, cell phone use) in urban and rural road environments with low and high traffic volume in a driving simulator experiment. Then, in the framework of the statistical analysis, a correlation table is presented investigating any of a broad class of statistical relationships between driving simulator measures and a structural equation model is developed in which overall driving performance is estimated as a latent variable based on several individual driving simulator measures.

Results: Results confirm the suitability of the structural equation model and indicate that the selection of the specific performance measures that define overall performance should be guided by a rule of representativeness between the selected variables. Moreover, results indicate that conversation with the passenger was not found to have a statistically significant effect, indicating that drivers do not change their performance while conversing with a passenger compared to undistracted driving. On the other hand, results support the hypothesis that cell phone use has a negative effect on driving performance. Furthermore, regarding driver characteristics, age, gender, and experience all have a significant effect on driving performance, indicating that driver-related characteristics play the most crucial role in overall driving performance.

Conclusions: The findings of this study allow a new approach to the investigation of driving behavior in driving simulator experiments and in general. By the successful implementation of the structural equation model, driving behavior can be assessed in terms of overall performance and not through individual performance measures, which allows an important scientific step forward from piecemeal analyses to a sound combined analysis of the interrelationship between several risk factors and overall driving performance.